Preparations for parliamentary elections begin in Egypt

President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi issued a decree on Tuesday 15 July creating an electoral commission to oversee the upcoming parliamentary elections. This is in keeping with his statement last month indicating that the procedures for parliamentary elections, the first step of which is the appointment of an electoral commission, would take place before 18 July.

The commission will be formed of the head of the Court of Appeals and the eldest members of the Court of Cassation. Its formation indicates that we should expect to hear an announcement regarding the timing of elections in the next week or two. 

The vote is still expected to be held in mid to late-September, as the government is keen on completing a full transition to an elected government and it is very likely that several draft laws are being held up until a parliament is in place to approve them.

In a development that could have a significant impact on the shape of the next parliament, the Cairo Court of Appeals has overturned a ban placed on members of the now defunct National Democratic Party (NDP), which had been headed by former president Hosni Mubarak, from participating in political life. 

The new ruling means that any former NDP member of parliament may run again in the next election cycle (those convicted of crimes in the last three years will still be banned from running), and it is particularly significant given that the new parliamentary electoral law, which has been heavily criticised by the country’s political parties, heavily favours individual candidate districts.

Former members of parliament will now find it easier to run in the constituencies they had once held, as they will not be required to join a political party (most of whom have shunned former NDP members) to compete in individual districts. 

It should be noted that while previous bans failed to prevent many NDP members from running in the 2011 parliamentary elections, they performed poorly against Muslim Brotherhood candidates, who have been banned from taking part in political life.

For more news and expert analysis about Egypt, please see Egypt Politics & Security.

© 2014 Menas Associates

Libya pushes ahead with plan for parliamentary elections

Somewhat incredibly Libya is still pushing ahead with its plan to hold elections for a new parliament on 25 June. Despite the upheaval and chaos, some Libyans seem to believe that electing a new ruling body at this time will work as a sort of panacea and provide the country with the opportunity for a new start.

Even General Khalifa Haftar, who is battling it out against militants in the east, declared this week that he would halt all fighting for one day on 25 June so that the polls can go ahead.

Yet such optimism may well be misplaced. It is true that electing a new parliament will refresh the political scene. It is also likely to result in the Islamists losing some of their grip on power. This week the campaign poster of a Muslim Brotherhood candidate, Ali Bouzakok, was torn down by angry crowds in Benghazi.

While the Islamists will not disappear from the scene completely, it seems almost certain, given the ongoing hostility towards them, that they will not be able to dominate the parliament in the way they have been able to dominate the Congress.

However, with the country so polarised and with the central authorities still lacking in any real power or authority, it is difficult to see how these elections will really alter the status quo. Furthermore, some of the thornier issues, such as whether or not to elect a new President directly or indirectly, still have to be thrashed out, meaning that the potential for further deadlock is still a reality.

Added to all this the fact that the number of voters who have registered for these elections is still so low; it is difficult to see how this new parliament will have any real legitimacy.

For more news and expert analysis about Libya, please see Libya Focus and Libya Politics & Security.

© 2014 Menas Associates

Yemen: Saudis put al-Huthi on list of terrorist organisations

Saudi Arabia issued a list of terrorist organisations on 6 March which includes the obvious suspects such as Al-Qa’ida in the Arabian Peninsula but also al-Huthi and the Muslim Brotherhood (MB). The Saudis have made clear that the banning of the MB is not directed at Islah, even though it is well known that the MB is part of that party. The naming of al-Huthi follows the approval of a new law on terrorism under which a special committee was set up to designate terrorist groups.

Riyadh has long regarded al-Huthi as hostile and fought al-Huthi fighters in 2009 and 2010. However, in the past three years the border has been quiet and both sides have avoided provocations. The Saudis have little doubt that al-Huthi is supported by Iran and the Lebanese Hizbollah and thus regarded as hostile. Riyadh will have been disturbed by the rapid rise in al- Huthi power in Yemen and the challenge this poses to some of Saudi Arabia’s traditional friends in the non-MB part of Islah. It is not clear if the al-Huthi political party, Ansar Allah, is affected.

Abd al-Malik al-Huthi blames the US, as usual, for the Saudi action, which he presented as taken precipitately and suggested that the Saudis might want to reconsider the situation. 

Saudi Arabia suspended its economic support to Yemen in late 2013, claiming that it wanted to encourage the politicians to agree on a way forward. The Saudi expulsion of Yemeni illegal migrants (within a general crackdown on illegals) has inflamed anti-Saudi opinion in Yemen.

Whether the Saudis have the will and capacity to turn the banning of al-Huthi into action against the movement in Yemen is moot.

Some Yemeni politicians are concerned about the rift within the GCC between Saudi Arabia and the UAE on one hand and Qatar on the other, mostly over Qatar’s backing for the MB. Qatar played a leading role in attempts in the late 2000s to mediate between the government and al-Huthi leaders and is the main financier, so far, of the fund to address southern grievances.

For more news and expert analysis about Yemen, please see Yemen Focus.

© 2014 Menas Associates

Egypt: Media closures

The authorities have moved against the television channels it deems to be supporting the Muslim Brotherhood. A court in Cairo ordered the closure of four television stations, including the Brotherhood's Ahrar 25 TV, Al-Jazeera's Egyptian affiliate Mubasher Misr, Al-Quds, and Al-Yarmouk saying they were operating illegally.

 

Three journalists from Al-Jazeera English were deported.

 

From the outset of the revolt by young Arabs against their rulers in 2011, Al-Jazeera has provided the most comprehensive coverage of this widespread popular movement. Their Qatari owners firmly took the side of the street, to the dismay of ruling families and entrenched regimes across the region. They further have supported the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt and Hamas in the Gaza strip - and that support has now cost them access in Cairo.

 

The first step towards the proscribing of the Brotherhood as an organisation came when the State Commissioners Authority, a body that advises the government on legal issues, recommended its dissolution. It also called for the group's national headquarters in Moqattam to be closed. The recommendations were made in accordance with Law 84 of 2002, which prohibits non-government organisations and institutions from forming paramilitary groups. This particular charge came after an attack on the party's headquarters -which the interior ministry had warned it would not protect - and the actions of pro-Morsi supporters to protect themselves.

The State Commissioners Authority can only advise the government but it is likely that a similar measure will be invoked to ban the Brotherhood.

 

For more news and expert analysis about Egypt, please see Egypt Politics & Security.

 

© 2013 Menas Associates

Libyans fear armed confrontation

 

The situation remains tense throughout most of Libya, especially in Tripoli, as uncertainty, fear and widespread rumours of a possible coup and armed confrontation abound. Quite who might attempt a coup and which groups might be involved in armed confrontation is not at all clear, as the country totters on the brink of chaos.

 

A 20 August report in the London-based Guardian spoke of “growing fears of an Egypt-style standoff between the ruling Muslim Brotherhood and opposition forces, with rebels blockading key oil ports and the capital”.

 

The Brotherhood's Justice and Construction Party, which only won 10% of the vote and 17 of the 80 party list seats in the July 2012 election, might arguably now see itself as the main political power in the GNC, following last month's on-off decision of the largest coalition party, the National Forces Alliance, which won 48% of the vote and 39 of the seats last year, to boycott GNC sessions, at least temporarily.

 

But the real question at the moment is who, if anyone, can really claim to be governing the country, or to be the main political or military force in the land. With the government's authority crumbling, one diplomat in Tripoli was quoted this week as saying that “Congress has basically collapsed.”

 

In the present state of chaos, the word “opposition”, rather like “government”, conjures up all sorts of possibilities, some still vaguely real, others more fanciful, although the beleaguered government of Prime Minister Zidan is still nominally in charge. In fact, some analysts might argue that the mere fact that he is still the country's prime minister suggests that he might be in a slightly stronger position than he was a week or so ago, especially if Tripoli does not fall to “opposition forces” and if he is able to overcome the armed protesters who have been holding the country's oil terminals and production to ransom.

 

For more news and expert analysis about Libya, please see Libya Focusand Libya Politics & Security.

 

© 2013 Menas Associates

The future of the Muslim Brotherhood

Supporters of Mohamed Morsi remain defiant. They insist he be restored to power. They say they will continue their protests until he is. However, the transitional authorities have made clear that it is not an option. The Muslim Brotherhood is being pulled in different directions. There were already splits between those who wanted a more political role, who formed the Freedom and Justice Party, and the old leadership around the Supreme Guide Mohamed Badie. Mr Badie said the army's removal of Morsi was equivalent to destroying one of Islam's holiest sites, the Kaaba in Mecca. "I swear by God that what Sisi did in Egypt is more criminal than if he had carried an axe and demolished the holy Kaaba stone by stone."

 

There have also been defections over the past to different splinter groups but the security services have targeted these, too. They have detained the leaders of the moderate al-Wasat party, Aboul-Ela Madi and his deputy Essam Sultan, charging them with responsibility for the death of protesters during recent violence.

 

There is always a risk that some members will split off and pursue their political ends of confrontation with the state through violence - a tactic adopted by the extremist Gamaat al-Islamiyaa in the 1990s with disastrous consequences.

 

Foreign Minister Nabil Fahmy has said that turning to violence would be political suicide, and that the Brotherhood should be part of the country's political future. He warned that deepening political divisions would lead "ultimately to more tragedies". He accused the Brotherhood of inciting violence, posing a threat to the security of the country. "If they decide to withdraw from politics, it will be disappointing. If they decide to pursue violence, then you are looking at a completely different confrontation. Even if I personally reject their positions or ideology, they have to find their place in Egypt's political life. We are looking for reconciliation among all Egyptians; I don't think we are at a situation where we will allow the situation to get out of hand."

 

That reconciliation appears a long way off with the polarisation of political forces over the past two years. The military and the security establishment have resumed the old talk of the Muslim Brotherhood posing a security threat to the state - justification for the harsh measures, the detentions and the violent crackdowns they have introduced.

 

Already human rights activists are warning that the army action is not only putting the clock back to before the fall of Mubarak but even earlier to the repressive Nasser period.

 

The president has given Prime Minister Hazem el-Belbawi the power to grant the military the right to arrest citizens - but the military has shown it is more than capable of doing what it wants, including removing the president without recourse to such legal niceties.

 

For more news and expert analysis about Egypt, please see Egypt Politics & Security.

 

© 2013 Menas Associates

Egypt's military council under scrutiny

Every military mission has as its cardinal principles: defining the objective, achieving the objective and securing an exit. No military mission should be attempted without an exit strategy. The alternative is mission creep.

The most benign interpretation of the military's actions over the past 18 months is that the army intervened to establish some kind of order with the intention of withdrawing to barracks once it could hand over to a duly-constituted civilian authority.

The army's actions over the past week put that interpretation under considerable strain. The catalyst for the army's change of tack was the rulings of the Supreme Constitutional Court to dissolve the Muslim Brotherhood-dominated parliament and to permit the man that the former regime had identified as a potential future president to stand against the Brotherhood's candidate. Critics were quick to point out that the judges in the court were Hosni Mubarak appointees. This is only partly true. All were appointed under Mubarak: what institution did not have its senior members appointed over the past 30 years that Mubarak ruled? But only the head of the court was actually appointed by him. Furthermore, the court has a reputation for quirkiness and had by no means always ruled in favour of the political powers that be.

The generous interpretation of the army's actions is that Constitutional Court rulings created a political vacuum which the army felt bound to fill.

Few support this view. They note that whatever the army might have said over the past 18 months, it has done little to re-assure citizens that it understands that the rules of the political game, the relationship between people and power, have fundamentally changed in Egypt as it has in other parts of the Arab world. They see an army, ostrich-like, reverting to default mode. It imposed limits on the media, sent 12,000 to military courts, was itself engaged in abuses, killed mainly Coptic demonstrators last October and held no one to account. The army has asked people to trust them. They have done little to earn that trust. The political transition has been a shambles, with its stentorian constitutional declarations and its swift appointment of an army general to guide whoever is elected president on economic matters. It is clear that whatever the army's original intentions, its most recent actions suggest an organisation unwilling or unable to delegate or to trust whoever might be elected by popular vote to rule.

Many felt that the Muslim Brotherhood was not politically mature enough to exercise power. Others that a time in power would expose the organisation to the compromises all those in that position have to make. But the army's actions have now left a Muslim Brotherhood bruised and resentful that the prize has been snatched from its grasp. The leadership has said it wants no violent confrontation with the army. Who knows what different approach some within the grassroots might take?

For more news and expert analysis about Egypt, please see Egypt Politics & Security.

© 2012 Menas Associates

Situation in Benghazi has not yet stabilised

The post-election situation in Benghazi has not yet stabilised and minor demonstrations are still taking place. It looks, however, as if the Muslim Brotherhood did best and reportedly took about a third of the available seats. So far, the majority of the candidates have, however, shown no sign of amalgamating, and going forward it appears that individuals will act independently.

The head of Tripoli Military Council, Abdul Hakim Belhadj, recently declared that he would stand as a candidate in the National General Congress elections. He has therefore separated himself from his past connections with the Libyan Islamic Fighting Group and has been careful to take a very moderate line in the run-up to the elections. On the basis of the Benghazi local elections, it is forecast that the Islamists will fare only moderately well in the coming ballot.

There is on on-going debate on the likelihood that the elections, scheduled for 19 June, will be postponed. It was reported on 3 June that they would be delayed as a result of an National Transitional Council (NTC) decision to extend the time period during which candidates could register and conduct their public campaigns. The local press cited the resulting lack of time to produce accurate ballot papers.

In any event, it is common wisdom in Libya that even if it is delayed by a week or two, the poll will have to take place and most sources indicate that the election organisation is generally on time. The chairman of the Libyan Higher National Elections Commission, Ali Askar, has indicated that the elections would go ahead as planned. The overwhelming reason to avoid a delay is the escalating impatience of the young and the revolutionary groups to bring about a change in government.

For more news and expert analysis about Libya, please see Libya Focus and Libya Politics & Security.

© 2012 Menas Associates

Egypt: Abdel Moneim Aboul Fotouh is the presidential candidate uniting different factions within the country

The presidential contest is not only between Amr Moussa and Abdel Moneim Aboul Fotouh. They might have had the first television debate but two others, the official candidate of the country's best organised political movement, the Muslim Brotherhood, Mohamed Morsi, and the former prime minister Ahmed Shafiq, are also serious contenders. Two are former ministers. Shafiq, in particularly, appeals to the desire to restore law and order. Moussa, in his television debate, sought to distance himself from the regime which he had served as foreign minister.

The strength of Aboul Fotouh is equally his weakness. He has been trying to appeal to all voters. He was originally a Salafist and has the endorsement of the Salafists. He became a Muslim Brother but fell out with them. He has the support of younger Muslim Brothers who do not care for their rigid and elderly leaders. And he has also reached out to Copts and others as a moderate voice.

His critics, however, argue that he is so bent on power that he will sell any of his principles. Of all the candidates, he is the major one nearest to being a candidate uniting all different factions within the country.

For more news and expert analysis about Egypt, please see Egypt Politics & Security.

© 2012 Menas Associates

Libya: UK Foreign Office under pressure

Of some importance for the future is whether Abdel Hakim Belhadj will use the legal confrontation with the British as a political tool to discredit the UK's military intervention in Libya in support of the revolution. A strong performance by the Islamists and the Muslim Brotherhood in the forthcoming election could give Belhadj a ready-made base which, albeit made up of purported heroism in the war against Qadhafi and of a suffering patriot at the hands of the British crusaders aligned with the Qadhafi regime, would stand him in good stead to bid for a leading role in a country in turmoil.

Belhadj has, in the interim, also initiated proceedings against the senior MI6 officer, Sir Mark Allen, who had close ties to the former Libyan spy chief and erstwhile foreign minister Musa Kusa. The threat of legal claims against Jack Straw has been public knowledge for some time although he has firmly denied any role in acquiescing in torture. The Foreign Office might find that that there could be a long legal argument over many of the grievances listed by Belhadj.

Given the shadow of Belhadj's alleged involvement with al-Qa'ida, which he has not denied, there would inevitably be a great deal at stake in information coming from Belhadj for the secret services, and he is likely to have been treated as a security VIP. Such considerations would not necessarily prevail with respect to the US.

Meanwhile, there have also been fresh allegations in the past week about the scale and nature of the collusion between the British security service and the Qadhafi regime. The Mail on Sunday claims that MI5 betrayed London-based dissidents to Libyan spies who were allegedly even housed in British safe houses having been whisked through airport immigration with the assistance of British security personnel. The Sunday Telegraph then claimed that MI6 and Libyan agents has established a radical mosque in an undisclosed Western European city in order to lure al-Qa'ida terrorists. Both newspapers have said that the claims come from documents which were discovered in Tripoli after the war and are assumed to have come from the treasure-trove of incriminating evidence left behind in Musa Kusa's office.

For more news and expert analysis about Libya, please see Libya Focus and Libya Politics & Security.

© 2012 Menas Associates

Egypt: Brotherhood U-turn

The Muslim Brotherhood has indicated it is to make a U-turn over putting forward a candidate for the presidential elections, due to take place 23-24 May. The Brotherhood Freedom and Justice Party (FJP) had originally said it would not put forward a candidate but would endorse one of those who presented himself. The spokesman for the Brotherhood, Mahmoud Ghozlan, said that the organisation now says that it cannot endorse any of those who have so far registered. But in a classic example of political doublespeak it denied reversing policy. "This is not a retreat from our former position, but rather a reaction to the ruling military council's refusal to allow us [through the Freedom and Justice Party] to form a new government."

The quandary that the Brotherhood faces is that its youth wing supports one of those who are standing, Abdel Moneim Aboul Fotouh, who was expelled from the organisation for breaking ranks and disobeying the policy decision not to present his candidature. The organisation's hierarchy is unwilling to show any compromise over disciplinary matters, and yet faces the prospect of many of its members voting for someone who was expelled from the organisation.

The Brotherhood's guidance council is due to meet on 23 March to decide on the issue, with Khairat al-Shater, the group's financier, considered the front runner. He would appear not to be eligible, however, as he has a criminal record: he was convicted of providing university students with military training.

For more news and expert analysis about Egypt, please see Egypt Politics & Security.

© 2012 Menas Associates

Algeria: Soltani's MSP to leave presidential alliance

Bouguera Soltani, leader of the MSP (Islamist Movement for Society of Peace), or Hamas in Arabic, is hoping to take advantage of the success of other Islamist parties in other North African countries that have held elections this last year. He has therefore withdrawn his party from the ruling coalition or 'presidential alliance', as it is known, that comprises the FLN, the RND of Prime Minister Ahmed Ouyahia, and his own MSP. The final decision was made by the MSP's shoura (advisory council) at its meeting at the end of December.

Soltani says that he wants to press for constitutional reform to limit the powers of the president. He is on record as saying that he does not believe that Bouteflika is serious about reform and has warned that voters would snub the ballot box in large numbers if political reform is not implemented.

He said: “The regime is not serious when it talks about political reforms. It continues to rule the country as it has always done... People continue to believe that the ballot is not the way for change….. Without serious reforms, the social front will remain unstable.”

Most commentators believe that Soltani's real reason for leaving the coalition, at least for the moment, as being to avoid losing votes in the upcoming elections, or, as he would no doubt word it, to attract more of the country's Islamist voters. His problem is that his party's membership of the unpopular ruling coalition, along with his own association with corruption scandals, could result in a collapse in the MSP vote as the Islamists support alternative parties.

As things stand at the moment, the MSP's departure from the ruling coalition would not strip the government of its majority. Currently, however, the party has a big following among conservative Algerians. Whether they will continue to support the party in the spring election is questionable. Soltani therefore sees his best chance of retaining support as being by trying to distance himself from the coalition. Few Algerians are likely to fall for it and most opinion is that the MSP vote is likely to collapse.

The MSP was founded in 1990 by Mahfoud Nahnah and Algerian members of the Muslim Brotherhood. Nahnah, who died in 2003, changed the party's name from Hamas. The party condemned the 1992 coup that led to the annulment of the 1992 elections, but did join the government coalition in 2004. The MSP currently has four ministers in minor posts.

The FLN General-Secretary, Abdelaziz Belkhadem, is on record as saying that there will be no Islamist tidal wave in the elections and that altogether the Islamists will not win more than 35 per cent of the vote.

For more news and expert analysis about Algeria, please see Algeria Focus and Algeria Politics & Security.

© 2012 Menas Associates

Mubarak's trial adjured until October

The judge hearing the appeal against the fines imposed on the former president Hosni Mubarak, his prime minister and his interior minister for cutting communications links in Egypt has adjourned the case until 3rd October. That should give him time to unearth who took part in the meeting that made the decision. Was defence minister and head of the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces ( SCAF ) Hussein Tantawi there? The army says he did not make the decision.

It does not really matter. The army was part of the old regime. It was its mainstay. When it saw that its position was under threat from the popular uprising, it sought to jettison the president so that it could remain unscathed. It was part of the old system. And it has played the pivotal role in shepherding in the new, as yet undetermined, system.

No one thinks that the army was blameless. The key will be what role it continues to play in future.

There is already great concern among liberal circles at the apparent closeness between the military and the Muslim Brotherhood. They certainly share common views on the need for an orderly transition, without introducing so-called supra-constitutional articles. What has not been established is the extent of any co-ordination between these two disciplined bodies.

For more news and expert analysis about Egypt, please see Egypt Politics & Security.

© 2011 Menas Associates

Essam Sharaf says delay in elections a good idea

Essam Sharaf, appointed by the ruling military council as prime minister, has departed from their stated position by suggesting that a delay in the plan to hold elections in September may be a good idea. “Postponing the elections would give the chance for a larger number of political parties to develop,” he said. This was not an off-the-cuff remark at a press conference. Rather, it was a response on an online service, masrawy.com, which would have given him time to reflect on what he was saying.

He also hinted that it might also be a good idea to draft a constitution before rather than after the elections as currently planned.

He emphasised that he was speaking in a personal capacity. He said that the cabinet would do all it could to ensure a fair and secure vote if the election went ahead as scheduled.

But the expression of his view, whether or not co-ordinated with the military high command, appears to support the campaign of the plethora of mainly liberal parties that they need more time to prepare. There is the other concern that the main beneficiaries of elections in September would be the Muslim Brotherhood, the most organised of political movements.

And the Muslim Brotherhood was very critical of the prime minister's comment. A leading figure said that the path laid out had already been accepted by a referendum on 19th March which approved amendments to the constitution by an overwhelming 77 per cent of the vote.

"The people want to transfer power to a civilian administration. This is in the interest of the country," said Sobhi Saleh, a Brotherhood leader. "The Muslim Brotherhood is against postponement and against drafting the constitution before elections."

For more news and expert analysis about Egypt, please see Egypt Politics & Security.

© 2011 Menas Associates

Libya: Transitional National Council reshuffles

On 12th May, the Transitional National Council (TNC) had a major reshuffle and created a new body, the executive board, with portfolios allocated across the main sectors. It is believed that it chose the term executive board to avoid accusations that it was trying to become a government in waiting.

The executive board chair is Mahmoud Jibril, the former head of the National Planning Council, who had been prominent in the TNC as number two in the pecking order. Jibril, who is also responsible for international affairs, seems to be emerging as the most important figure within the opposition, fast overshadowing council head Mustafa Jalil.

Although the retiring Jalil has stepped up his game in recent weeks, and in response to criticism of his leadership style has been more active, he still does not have the leadership qualities of Jibril.

Former finance secretary and ambassador to India Ali al-Issawi has been made Jibril's deputy on the executive board. Ali al-Tarhuni has been given responsibility for finance and oil. Al-Tarhuni, an economist from Tarhouna, was involved in the student opposition in the early days of Qadhafi's revolution, causing him to flee Libya in 1973. He was later sentenced to death in absentia.

He settled in the US, where he gained a PhD from Michigan State University. In 1985 he took up a post as senior lecturer in business economics at the University of Washington, where by all accounts he was a popular figure, known for his engaging teaching style and his wit. His wife is a lawyer with the Washington State attorney general's office.

While in the US, al-Tarhuni continued to be active in the Libyan opposition abroad and he was a member of the political committee of the National Conference of the Libyan Opposition, established at a major opposition conference held in London in June 2005.

So far, al-Tarhuni has gained a reputation for being one of the few opposition appointees willing to speak frankly about the movement's shortcomings and challenges.

Abdullah Shamia has been made responsible for economics. Shamia graduated from Benghazi University in 1973 with a degree in economics. He also spent time in the United States, gaining a PhD in the philosophy of economy from Washington University in 1984. He returned to Libya and in 1997 was appointed a professor of economy at Gar Younis University in Benghazi.

Shamia, who has been an advocate of privatisation and economic restructuring, was also a senior figure in the Libyan Muslim Brotherhood and a member of its shura council. He was arrested in 1998 in the regime's mass campaign against the Brotherhood and convicted of belonging to a banned organisation. He was released in 2006 along with some 100 members of the group through Saif al-Islam's 'reform and repent' programme for Islamist prisoners.

Mustafa Jalil remains as head of the TNC but Abdelhafed Abdelkader Ghoga, who is also spokesman for the council, has been made his deputy.

It is not clear how the TNC and its executive board interact. However, the TNC is the over-arching body that is supposed to represent all of Libya and to lead the country until elections are held – and as such is more akin to a kind of parliament – while the executive board operates more like a government.

Transitional National Council

Mustafa Mohammed Abdul Jalil Chair
Abdelhafed Abdelkader Ghoga Vice-chair, spokesman, and representative of Benghazi
Othman Suleiman El-Megyrahi Batnan area
Ashour Hamed Bourashed Derna
Zubiar Ahmed El-Sharif Representative of political prisoners
Ahmed Abduraba al-Abaar Economics
Fathi Mohamed Baja Political affairs and Benghazi
Suleiman al-Fortiya Misrata
Mohamed al-Muntasir Misrata
Fathi Terbil Youth
Salwa Fawzi El-Deghali Legal and women's affairs
Abdelallah Moussa El-Myehoub Legal and women's affairs and Qouba area
Omar Hariri Military affairs
TNC executive board

Mahmoud Jibril Chair and head of international affairs
Ali al-Issawi Vice-chair
Ahmed Hussein al-Darrat Internal affairs and local government
Mahmoud Shamam Media
Naji Barakat Health
Mohammed al-Allagi Justice and human rights
Hania al-Gumati Health
Abdullah Shamia Economics
Ali al-Tarhuni Finance and oil
Anwar al-Faytouri Transport and communications
Abulgassim Nimr Environment
Attia al-Aujali Culture and community
Abdulsalam al-Shikhy Religious affairs and endowments
Ahmed al-Jehani Reconstruction and infrastructure
TBD Education.

For more news and expert analysis about Libya, please see Libya Focus and Libya Politics & Security.

© 2011 Menas Associates

Egypt: The Muslim Brotherhood has formed a new political party

Egypt's largest religiously-inspired political organisation, the Muslim Brotherhood, has formed a political party for the first time since it was founded in the 1920s. Over the past 80 odd years it was variously suppressed by the State or forced to live in the shadows. The Freedom and Justice Party (hizb il-hurriya w'il-adala) will be the vehicle by which it contests parliamentary elections, due in the autumn. The Muslim Brotherhood has already said it will contest up to half the seats, though it will not field a candidate for the presidential elections due later in the year.

It is not clear how different the party will be ideologically and organisationally from the Muslim Brotherhood . Secretary General of the Brotherhood Mahmoud Hussein declared that "this party will be independent from the Brotherhood but will co-ordinate with it."

Parties which are based on religion continue to be banned, although few will distinguish between the Freedom and Justice Party and its progenitor.

Some of the younger members of the Muslim Brotherhood have already raised objections to the way in which the leadership of the party was chosen. The decision was taken by the Shura Council of the Brotherhood rather than by an election of the founding members of the party.

The Shura Council named Mohamed Morsy as the chairman of the party, Dr Essam El-Erian as his deputy and Dr Mohamed Saad El-Ketatney as the party's secretary general. The three were obliged to renounce their positions on the Guidance Council of the Muslim Brotherhood , in an attempt to show a distinction between the Brotherhood and the party it has spawned.

El-Erian defended the decision to make appointments directly rather than through elections, saying time was pressing if the party was actively to contest parliamentary elections in the autumn.

El-Ketatny said El-Ketatny said they are finalising all the paperwork. "We will wait for a month as scheduled by the committee then we will start the activities of our party."

For more news and expert analysis about Egypt, please see Egypt Politics & Security.

© 2011 Menas Associates

Libya: Islamist opposition accuses regime

The Islamist opposition has attacked the Libyan regime for its behaviour in the whole mass occupation affair. Much of this attack appears driven by a strong sense of disappointment, especially among those abroad, that Libya did not follow the Tunisian example and rise up en masse to overthrow the regime.

The Muslim Brotherhood, which has generally refrained from openly criticising the regime since its members were released from prison in 2006, issued a condemnatory statement accus¬ing the regime of allowing people to break into the flats in order to divert attention away from the events in Tunisia.

The movement viewed the protest as a pre¬meditated attempt by the regime to ensure Libyans would focus all their attentions on the housing issue.

The statement declared, "We are surprised to see that the security services are not interven¬ing to protect these flats, especially those that are allocated already … This indicates clearly that instructions have been issued to these security agencies not to intervene and this raises in us the belief that there is a conspiracy aimed at triggering fitna." (chaos – a word that has specific religious connotations).

The Libyan Islamic Fighting Group (LIFG), which has also made its peace with the regime in recent years, issued a similar statement accusing the regime of creating "temporary chaos" in order to absorb public anger and divert attention. The statement, signed by the LIFG abroad, declared the regime was 'playing with fire' that might return to burn its fingers.

For more news and expert analysis about Libya, please see Libya Focus and Libya Politics & Security.


© 2010 Menas Associates

Egypt: MB to quit election

Egypt's main opposition party the Muslim Brotherhood (MB) says it is withdrawing its candidates from the election run-off, which will take place on Sunday 5th December. The group, who is banned from the election process but runs candidates as independents, failed to secure a single seat in Sunday's first round.

The group says the election was rigged in favour of President Hosni Mubarak's ruling National Democratic Party (NDP) who won almost all the seats in the first round. A press release by the group said the election process was “scandalous" and marred by corruption and violence. MB's decision to quit the elections is expected to be confirmed by the group's leader Mohammed Badie.

Despite speculation to the contrary, Egyptian government has insists that the first round of votes was fair. The country's media has been instrumental in trying to discredit the government by running reports and testimonials of mass faked ballots and voters being intimidated at polling stations by security forces. Protests by opposition supporters have since erupted across the country.

The second round of voting is scheduled to go ahead on Sunday. Experts say that the turn out will most likely be in the 10-15 per cent region, the same as in the first round.

Source: BBC News

For more news and expert analysis about Egypt, please see Egypt Politics & Security.

Egypt detains MB supporters

Egyptian police have detained over 70 people in Alexandria as they were putting up posters in support of the Muslim Brotherhood (MB). Speaking about the detention a police official said the posters breached a law against religious insignia for election campaign purposes. A spokesperson for MB counteracted the statement saying the posters for Egypt's governing party contained quotes from Koran yet remained untouched.

The MB is the biggest opposition movement in Egypt and has been banned since 1954. However, it won 20 per cent of the seats in parliament in 2005 by fielding candidates as independents. The group has since faced heavy censorship by the Egyptian government. MB's MP Hussein Ibrahim said the posters used commonplace terms including "God is great" and "Praise be to God" rather than slogans associated exclusively with the Islamist group or direct quotes from the Koran.

"This is the beginning of a blatant election fraud since the ruling party candidates' posters were left untouched although they contained full verses of the Koran," said Ibrahim.

Source: BBC News

For more news and expert analysis about Egypt, please see Egypt Politics & Security.

Muslim Brotherhood to run in poll

Egypt's banned opposition group the Muslim Brotherhood (MB) is expected to stand in a third of the seats in next month's parliamentary elections. The group won 20 per cent of the seats in parliament in 2005, but this time round MB said it would contest 169 of more than 500 seats available.

The group's success in the 2005 elections surprised the Egyptian government and it has since paid greater attention to the group's activities, aiming to curtail them by arresting some of the group's key figureheads. MB's leader Mohammed Badie said he wanted to encourage a more open and fair vote and added that if rigged it would cast a shadow over the 2011 presidential elections.

"We ask all Egyptians to stand firm against any attempt to rig the elections and we call on the government to ensure a fair election," said Badie.

It is yet unclear whether President Hosni Mubarak, who has ruled Egypt for 30 years, will stand for a sixth term in office. Former head of the International Atomic Energy Agency(IAEA), Mohamed ElBaradei, has worked with MB to achieve electoral reform and has argued that boycotting parliamentary elections would deny the government its power. However, a spokesperson for MB has said that the group believes that standing would provide a chance for a fairer Egypt.

Source: BBC News

For more news and expert analysis about Egypt, please see Egypt Politics & Security.