Short extension to Iran nuclear talks proposed as deadline looms

Iran and the P5+1 have been engaged in very intense negotiations since 2 July in a bid to achieve a comprehensive nuclear deal before the 20 July deadline. Though the deadline can be extended by up to six months, all parties involved are interested in finalising the deal soon.

The two sides agree that significant gaps remain, mainly on the issue of enrichment capacity. This translates into the number of centrifuges, production capacity, and stockpiles of enriched uranium. Various formulae could achieve the Western goal of prohibiting the breakout capability of the Iranian programme, defined as the point at which there is a sufficient quantity of highly enriched uranium to fuel a weapon.

Iran’s latest offer has included a freeze on enrichment to maintain the current capacity of about 9,000 centrifuges instead of reducing that now and allowing it to grow in the future. This suggestion is now being considered in Washington, but insiders there told Menas Associates that 9,000 spinning centrifuges would not offer enough leverage to President Obama to push back congressional pressure against sanctions relief.

It looks very likely that the two sides will agree on an extension of the talks by a few weeks, not by six months. That would allow them to close the gap between their positions, but there is also another important advantage: the US Congress will be on its summer break in August and if the comprehensive agreement is signed in mid-month, there will be no immediate congressional opposition.

Washington and Tehran have achieved their core objectives and are now attempting to make the deal more attractive to their domestic stakeholders. At the same time, each knows that it will be easy for the other to undo the progress made so far and return to the escalatory mode of the past few years.

A deal is thus likely in August and will then be implemented over the next two years, ultimately leading to a working relationship between Tehran and Washington and an improvement of ties between Iran and the European Union.

For more news and expert analysis about Iran, please see Iran Strategic Focus.

© 2014 Menas Associates

Libya's 2014 Budget is finally passed

On 22 June the long awaited 2014 Budget originally submitted to the Congress in January by the then Prime Minister, Ali Zidan, was passed. This came as a surprise to some Congress members who had expected to debate the issue in a session on the 22 June. Having waited almost all day for there to be enough members present to reach 94 - the required number of members present to be able to hold an official consultative session - the Congress was told that the budget had been passed on a technicality.

As Libya Politics & Security – 16.06.14 explained, the Al-Thanni government declared last week that the Congress had 120 days from the budget’s initial submission to debate the law, after which time the government had the right to issue a financial mandate to ratify it. Al-Thanni therefore scored a bit of a coup by getting the law passed in this way, despite the fact that certain Congress members were keen for the budget to be reduced. 

The Central Bank may, however, still object to the budget being passed in this fashion, although it is not clear whether it has a legal right to do so. The budget stands at LD56.5 billion (US$45 billion). Given the crisis in revenues caused by the disruptions at the oil ports, a significant portion of this money is expected to come from a reserve fund at the Central Bank that was set up by Colonel Qadhafi as a fund for future generations. Whether the Central Bank will agree to this fund being used also remains open to question. 

It is clear, however, that Libya cannot fund itself from oil revenues alone. The budget committee in the Congress based the 2014 budget on a projected annual oil production of 600,000 b/d but the country has clearly fallen woefully short of this. Thus drawing on this LD16 billion fund, plus some of the central bank’s foreign reserves, therefore seems to be the only solution.

For more news and expert analysis about Libya, please see Libya Focus and Libya Politics & Security.

© 2014 Menas Associates

Libya pushes ahead with plan for parliamentary elections

Somewhat incredibly Libya is still pushing ahead with its plan to hold elections for a new parliament on 25 June. Despite the upheaval and chaos, some Libyans seem to believe that electing a new ruling body at this time will work as a sort of panacea and provide the country with the opportunity for a new start.

Even General Khalifa Haftar, who is battling it out against militants in the east, declared this week that he would halt all fighting for one day on 25 June so that the polls can go ahead.

Yet such optimism may well be misplaced. It is true that electing a new parliament will refresh the political scene. It is also likely to result in the Islamists losing some of their grip on power. This week the campaign poster of a Muslim Brotherhood candidate, Ali Bouzakok, was torn down by angry crowds in Benghazi.

While the Islamists will not disappear from the scene completely, it seems almost certain, given the ongoing hostility towards them, that they will not be able to dominate the parliament in the way they have been able to dominate the Congress.

However, with the country so polarised and with the central authorities still lacking in any real power or authority, it is difficult to see how these elections will really alter the status quo. Furthermore, some of the thornier issues, such as whether or not to elect a new President directly or indirectly, still have to be thrashed out, meaning that the potential for further deadlock is still a reality.

Added to all this the fact that the number of voters who have registered for these elections is still so low; it is difficult to see how this new parliament will have any real legitimacy.

For more news and expert analysis about Libya, please see Libya Focus and Libya Politics & Security.

© 2014 Menas Associates

Reshuffle in Yemen amid protests

An attack on Yemen’s electricity infrastructure in Marib led to a loss of power for much of the country on 10 June, leading the next day to demonstrations and a protest in front of President Abd Rubuh Hadi’s residence. This precipitated a long-expected cabinet reshuffle that came across as something of a panic.

Yemen has looked particularly fragile in the past month, with a major offensive in Abyan/Shabwa against AQAP, fighting in Amran between al-Huthi, supporters of Islah and an army brigade and continuing problems in the south. In Sana’a, fuel shortages have led to long queues for diesel and elsewhere exacerbated already severe humanitarian problems and led to protests in several Yemeni towns.

Criticism of the government had reached new heights before the electricity failure. Much of it was directed at Prime Minister Muhammad Basindwa, who nevertheless survived the reshuffle – perhaps because very few other politicians might be willing to take on the job at present.

The new ministers are:

• Ahmad Ubaid Bin Daghr, deputy prime minister, minister of telecommunications and information technology;
• Abdullah Mohsen al-Akwa, deputy prime minister, minister of electricity;
• Nasser Taha Mustafa, minister of information;
• Ahmed Abdul Kader Shaya, minister of oil and minerals;
• Mohammed Mansour Zemam, minister of finance; and
• Jamal Abdullah al-Salal, minister of foreign affairs.

They are thought to be close to Hadi, while representing the General People’s Congress/Joint Meeting Parties coalition in the cabinet. The new oil minister replaces Khaled Mahfouz Bahah, who was appointed to the job only three months ago, having been brought back from Canada to take up a post he had previously occupied three years earlier. Abu Bakr al-Qirby, the long-serving foreign minister, may have been surprised at his sudden exit, sweetened by an appointment to the Majlis al-Shoura (upper house of parliament). His replacement has done well as ambassador to the UN. The outgoing minister of finance has been appointed governor of Hodeida.

The president has also appointed Ahmed Awad bin Mubarak as a director of his office. He made his reputation as secretary general of the National Dialogue Conference. Mansour Ali Ahmed al-Betani was made secretary-general of the presidency.

The reshuffle will at best buy Hadi a little time. The armed forces will go after the saboteurs but problems with tribes in Marib are endemic and symptomatic of wider political, economic and social problems – and thus likely to recur.

For more news and expert analysis about Yemen, please see Yemen Focus.

© 2014 Menas Associates

Libya: Debate over long overdue 2014 Budget postponed

The Congress put off discussing its long overdue budget for 2014 again this week. The budget was supposed to have been discussed during the Congress’s session on 11 May but, when it came to it, the budget law was not on the Congress agenda.

The ruling body gave no reason for the postponement and failed to specify a new date for discussions to take place. Congress sources did, however, tell the Libyan media that it had been shelved from the session on the 11 May because of security concerns.

Meanwhile, Congress member Abdelmonen Al-Yassir told a local satellite channel that the presidency of the Congress had informed members late on Saturday 10 May that there was a security risk which required the postponement of the session. While Al-Yassir stated that he did not know the nature of these risks, he hinted that it may be related to the ongoing controversy over the appointment of Ahmed Maitig as Prime Minister.

The draft budget is set at LD59,686 million (US$48,743 million) with a projected deficit of LD10,000 (US$8,166 million).

For more news and expert analysis about Libya, please see Libya Focus and Libya Politics & Security.

© 2014 Menas Associates

Libya: Preliminary results of Constitution Committee elections

The preliminary results of the elections for the constitution committee, or Sixty Committee, which was established to draw up the country’s new constitution, were released this week. Although most of those elected are not well known, the initial results indicated that the liberal trend did well.

So far, only 47 out of the committee’s members have been declared because voting has yet to take place for the remaining 13 seats. Two of these seats remain empty because they were set aside for the country’s Amazigh (Berber) minority which boycotted the elections on the grounds that the Amazigh were under-represented in the committee and because they were given no guarantee that their rights would be protected in the new constitution. 

The other 11 seats remain unfilled because the elections to these posts could not go ahead on 20 February as a result of various security issues. Despite the fact that the Higher Election Commission announced that voting would take place for these seats six days later, similar disruptions and security violations occurred, meaning the re-runs did not go ahead.

In such circumstances it is difficult to see how this committee can start work. This means that the constitution writing process is likely to be delayed even further, suggesting that Congress’ Plan B for early elections will almost certainly have to be implemented, providing that the Congress itself lasts that long. 

Indeed, the head of the Higher Election Commission, Nouri Al-Abbar, who resigned this week (see below), informed the GNC that “in the best circumstances and even with the availability of logistical support, the earliest time that elections can be held is between 5 to 10 months”. Whether Libyans will agree to wait that long has yet to be seen.

For more news and expert analysis about Libya, please see Libya Focus and Libya Politics & Security.

© 2014 Menas Associates

Libya: Violence in Benghazi continues

It has been another week of violence in Benghazi with state forces clearly no closer to curbing the campaign of assassinations and attacks that have blighted the city for months. As the spokesperson of the Joint Security Chamber in Benghazi, Ibrahim Al-Sharaf, described, “the security situation in Benghazi is still tense… The assassinations are continuing.”

On 7 February the imam of the Al-Ansari mosque in the Hadaiq area, Sheikh Atif Al-Madouli, was shot dead by gunmen as he was returning from Asr prayers. Al-Madouli is believed to have worked for the external intelligence services under the former regime.

Meanwhile, there have been a series of explosions targeting civilian locations. On 5 February, a gunman threw a grenade into the playground of a private primary school in Benghazi’s Tabalino district. The attack occurred at around 11.00 when the school playground was full. Six children were injured in the attack.

Then, on 9 February, two bombs exploded at dawn in the city. One exploded at the Arous Al-Bahr (Bride of the Sea) restaurant on the corniche. It appears that bags full of explosives had been planted all around the restaurant and destroyed it completely. The other blast occurred in Ghazir Street and was the result of a booby trapped car. It is unclear who was behind these attacks, and why these particular targets were selected, but restaurants are often associated in the minds of Islamist militants as places of vice and decadence.

It was also reported that a booby trapped car was found on the same day behind the headquarters of the Special Forces in Benghazi. Security forces are reported to have discovered 350 kilos of TNT at the site.

These attacks were followed by another explosion at dawn on 10 February in a house in the Al-Laithi district. It is currently being reported that two people were killed in the blast but this explosion actually appears to have been the result of badly stored weapons and ammunition.

For more news and expert analysis about Libya, please see Libya Focus and Libya Politics & Security.

© 2014 Menas Associates

Libya: Congress delays two important votes

This week, the Congress postponed two important votes on the grounds that not enough members were present to reach the 120-vote minimum required to pass key laws.

 

The first vote was to make amendments to the recently passed law for electing the constitution writing committee, known as the Sixty Committee because of its 60 members. The proposed amendments are related to the number of seats on the committee that have been reserved for Libya's ethnic minorities.

 

Following the uproar from Amazigh, Tebu and Tuareg groups at the limited number of seats that were initially allocated to them in the committee, there has been a push to amend the law to increase their representation. But, due to the insufficient number of members present in the Congress, the vote that was due to go ahead this week had to be postponed until next week.

 

The vote to select Congress' next deputy leader, due to take place on 29 September, was also put off until next week. The three shortlisted candidates who will replace Giumah Attigha, believed to have resigned to pre-empt being barred by the political isolation law, are Omar Khalid Al-Obeidi from Benghazi, Izzideen Mohamed Younis Yahia Al-Awami from Al-Marj and Awad Mohamed Awad Abdul Sadiq from Jalu. All three are independents and, notably, all three come from the east. This is presumably to balance the fact that Congress head Nouri Abu Sahmaine is from the west.

 

For more news and expert analysis about Libya, please see Libya Focus and Libya Politics & Security.

 

© 2013 Menas Associates

Libya: Political Exclusion Law Committee finally gets going

 

The 77-member Committee of Applying the Standards of Taking Up Public Posts, the body tasked with implementing the political exclusion law, has begun its work in earnest. This week, the committee, comprising mainly those who were part of the old Integrity Committee, summoned 11 members of the Congress to inform them that the Political Exclusion Law applies to them.

Four of these 11 have already attended committee sessions and all demanded that they be given one week to prove that the law is not applicable to them. It appears that the committee granted them their request and that they will all have the chance to defend themselves. The remaining seven from this first batch are due to attend hearings with the committee this coming week.

 

This first group is clearly just the tip of the iceberg and represents the first set of cases that the committee had been able to work its way through. According to the committee, out of 200 Congress members, so far only 98 of them have actually completed and handed in the compulsory forms distributed by the committee that oblige members to provide details of their past. Implementation of the law is clearly going to be a long, drawn-out process.

 

For more news and expert analysis about Libya, please see Libya Focus and Libya Politics & Security.

© 2013 Menas Associates

Libya: Chief of Staff Yousef Al-Mangoush finally resigns

Chief of Staff Yousef Al-Mangoush finally resigned this week, handing in his notice to the Congress on account of the events of Black Saturday. It has been reported that Al-Mangoush had not intended to resign over the incident but that he was summoned to Congress where it was made clear to him that he had no choice in the matter.

Al-Mangoush's resignation has not shortened his time in office by very much as he was already on his way out. The Congress voted recently to find a replacement for him and it has already received many nominations for the post. Al-Mangoush would also certainly have been a victim of the Political Exclusion Law once it comes into force given his role as part of the security services of the former regime.

Many Libyans will, however, still have been pleased at the news. Al-Mangoush has proved one of the most unpopular of all public figures in the new Libya. This is largely because of his inability to create a proper national army, something that has led his critics to accuse him of deliberately supporting the brigades and militias at the expense of building a real force. Al-Mangoush has also been accused of doing the bidding of Qatar.

There have long been demands from a wide range of quarters, including from inside the armed forces, but also from inside the Congress and among the revolutionaries, for him to leave office.

Al-Mangoush was replaced by his deputy, Salim Al-Gnaidi, who will lead the armed forces until a proper replacement is agreed upon by the Congress.

For more news and expert analysis about Libya, please see Libya Focusand Libya Politics & Security.

© 2013 Menas Associates

Libya: Grand Mufti ups the pressure

 

Libya's ultra conservative Grand Mufti, Sheikh Sadeq Al-Ghariani has continued with his meddling in the political arena. This week, he called on Libyans to come out in their thousands to pressurise the Congress to issue the Political Exclusion Law, issuing a fatwa ruling that doing so is fard kifayah (a religious obligation).

In a bid to reach as wide an audience as possible, the Mufti, who has made no bones about his support for the current uncompromising draft of the Political Exclusion Law, also gave a lecture that was filmed and distributed this week. In it Al-Ghariani proclaimed, “If this law can't be applied unless one hundred thousand people come out, then this number of people have to come out.”

Al-Ghirani declared, too, that in order to set up a proper state Libya needed to issue the Political Exclusion Law to expel all former regime loyalists who are now “penetrating the state”, and to reform the judiciary and activate it in a proper manner, meaning that, in his view, it should be purged of all those who have links to the former regime.

The Grand Mufti also made an outright attack on the government, asserting that the state is “stealing hundreds of millions” and is stealing public money on a wider scale than the former regime. Al-Ghirani called for all corrupt elements who were part of the National Transitional Council's executive office or the interim government or all those in the current government to be held to account.

In a clear effort to pave the way in the public mind for an Islamist alternative, the Mufti also asserted that “these governments are still working in the same way as the former regime”.

While Al-Ghiriani is an influential figure who commands a great deal of support and respect, his repeated insistence on intervening in politics is prompting serious anger and resentment among some Libyans, particularly those in the liberal camp. His assertion earlier this month in a letter to Minister of Social Affairs Kamila Khamis Al-Mazini that Libyan women should not be allowed to marry foreigners, including foreign Muslims, as well as his condemnation of the latest UN report on violence against women, which the Dar Al-Ifta described as “menacing”, caused outcry among certain Libyans who fear the Mufti's growing political role and what they see as the increasing Islamisation of society.

For more news and expert analysis about Libya, please see Libya Focusand Libya Politics & Security.

© 2013 Menas Associates