Abdullah Senussi is returned from Mauritania to Libya

According to reports from Mauritania's Foreign Ministry the infamous former security chief and Colonel Qadhafi's brother-in-law, Abdullah Senussi, was released on Wednesday 5 August following a visit by Libyan Foreign Minister, Ashour Bin Khayal, and Chief of Staff, Yousef Mangoush. He was then handed over to the Libyans and it is understood that he is now on his way to Libya.

While the extradition from Tunisia of the former prime minister Mahmoud al–Baghdadi was of some interest, he was really just a technocrat. There is no doubt that Senussi is a much more important prize, because not only was he at the heart of Qadhafi's inner circle for many decades, but he was almost certainly responsible for almost all of the regime's most infamous crimes. These include overseas acts of terrorism – including the UTA and Lockerbie bombings and many others – but also decades of repression against the regime's domestic opponents. In addition there was the crackdown in Benghazi which sparked the 2011 revolution; Senussi's most notorious act, however, was his alleged orchestration of the June 1996 massacre of over 1200 inmates at Abu Salim prison.

Senussi probably knows more secrets about the Qadhafi regime than anyone else, with the possible exception of the former intelligence chief and foreign minister, Musa Kusa, who defected during the 2011 revolution. Senussi will no doubt be extensively debriefed and interrogated before any trial but there can be no doubt that that he will be found guilty of numerous crimes and will almost certainly be executed. Anything less would be unacceptable to the majority of Libyans for whom Senussi was the most feared and hated member of the Qadhafi regime.

For more news and expert analysis about Libya, please see Libya Focus and Libya Politics & Security.

© 2012 Menas Associates

Libya: UK Foreign Office under pressure

Of some importance for the future is whether Abdel Hakim Belhadj will use the legal confrontation with the British as a political tool to discredit the UK's military intervention in Libya in support of the revolution. A strong performance by the Islamists and the Muslim Brotherhood in the forthcoming election could give Belhadj a ready-made base which, albeit made up of purported heroism in the war against Qadhafi and of a suffering patriot at the hands of the British crusaders aligned with the Qadhafi regime, would stand him in good stead to bid for a leading role in a country in turmoil.

Belhadj has, in the interim, also initiated proceedings against the senior MI6 officer, Sir Mark Allen, who had close ties to the former Libyan spy chief and erstwhile foreign minister Musa Kusa. The threat of legal claims against Jack Straw has been public knowledge for some time although he has firmly denied any role in acquiescing in torture. The Foreign Office might find that that there could be a long legal argument over many of the grievances listed by Belhadj.

Given the shadow of Belhadj's alleged involvement with al-Qa'ida, which he has not denied, there would inevitably be a great deal at stake in information coming from Belhadj for the secret services, and he is likely to have been treated as a security VIP. Such considerations would not necessarily prevail with respect to the US.

Meanwhile, there have also been fresh allegations in the past week about the scale and nature of the collusion between the British security service and the Qadhafi regime. The Mail on Sunday claims that MI5 betrayed London-based dissidents to Libyan spies who were allegedly even housed in British safe houses having been whisked through airport immigration with the assistance of British security personnel. The Sunday Telegraph then claimed that MI6 and Libyan agents has established a radical mosque in an undisclosed Western European city in order to lure al-Qa'ida terrorists. Both newspapers have said that the claims come from documents which were discovered in Tripoli after the war and are assumed to have come from the treasure-trove of incriminating evidence left behind in Musa Kusa's office.

For more news and expert analysis about Libya, please see Libya Focus and Libya Politics & Security.

© 2012 Menas Associates

Libyan rebels concede to a ceasefire

Following news that seven civilians died and 25 were injured in a coalition air strike on a pro-Qadhafi convoy, a Libyan opposition leader, Mustafa Abdul-Jalil, said the rebels will accept a UN-demanded ceasefire if Qadhafi withdraws his forces from all the cities and concedes to peaceful protests.

Speaking at a conference in Benghazi, Abdul-Jalil said: "We agree on a ceasefire on the condition that our brothers in the western cities have freedom of expression and also that the forces that are besieging the cities withdraw.”

During the conference, also attended by UN envoy Abdelilah Al-Khatib, visiting the rebels' de-facto stronghold in hope of reaching a resolution, Abdul-Jalil said a ceasefire would been agreed on the condition that “Qadhafi's brigades and forces withdraw from inside and outside Libyan cities”. He added that in doing so the world would see that the Libyan people would “choose freedom" rather than remain under the regime.

The offer was made from a position of power, as the rebels seem to be better organized and better armed than ever. For most of this week, Qadhafi's forces have been trying to push the rebels back about 100 miles along the coast, prompting them to regroup and form a new strategy.

Another Libyan opposition leader, Ali Tarhouni, said the rebels had negotiated a deal with Qatar to supply oil, they control in parts of south-eastern Libya, in exchange for money for weapons and ammunition. Tarhouni did not say when the deal was agreed.

Amid talks of further defections, following that of Libya's Foreign Minister Musa Kusa, Libya's Chief of Intelligence Bouzeid Dorda dismissed rumours that he was planning to abandon Libya. In a statement aired on Libya's State television, Dorda said: "I am in Libya and will remain here steadfast in the same camp of the revolution despite everything. I never thought to cross the borders or violate commitment to the people, the revolution and the leader."

Oil Minister Shukri Ghanim has denied similar rumours, saying: "I am in Tripoli working in my office... I am trying my best to keep this oil industry as one industry, trying to minimise the damage that is happening to the installation, trying to secure the safety of the staff and the personnel [and] trying to prevent the looting of the industry."

Sources: BBC News, AP, Bloomberg

For more news and expert analysis about Libya, please see Libya Focus and Libya Politics & Security.

Libya's Foreign Minister Musa Kusa defects

Libya's Foreign Minister and one of Colonel Mu'ammar Qadhafi's closest allies Musa Kusa has defected, saying he was “no longer willing" to serve the regime. Experts say this might prove to be a momentous turning point for Libya, with further defections to come.

Kusa flew into Britain last night, a move that was supported by Whitehall. A foreign office spokesman said: “We encourage those around Qadhafi to abandon him and embrace a better future for Libya that allows political transition and real reform that meets the aspirations of the Libyan people.”

The spokesman added that in view of the events in Libya, Kusa felt he could no longer “represent the regime internationally” or stand-by Qadhafi's actions.

Kusa arrived from Tunisia where he was said to be on a diplomatic mission. His defection has given hope that the regime may splinter internally thereby weakening Qadhafi's hold on the country. A close confidant of the Leader for over 30 years, and head of Libya's spy agency, Kusa was said to be responsible for masterminding the 1988 Lockerbie bombing, and later for the negotiations in releasing the bomber, Abdelbaset Ali Mohmed Al–Megrahi.

Speaking about the situation in Libya yesterday [30th March], Britain's Prime Minister David Cameron said he was not “ruling out” arming the rebels despite having previously indicated that this may not be possible under the terms of sanctions imposed on Libya. The Prime Minister noted: "It is an extremely fluid situation but there is no doubt in anyone's mind the ceasefire is still being breached and it is absolutely right for us to keep up our pressure under UN Security Council 1973. As I've told the House, the legal position is clear that the arms embargo applies to the whole territory of Libya.”

Sources: BBC News, The Guardian, The Daily Telegraph, Reuters

For more news and expert analysis about Libya, please see Libya Focus and Libya Politics & Security.

Libya to receive aid from EU

Libya was offered up to €60 million over three years by the European Commission this month in order to help it deal with the problem of illegal immigration. This sum is a drop in the ocean compared to the €5 billion Qadhafi demanded during his recent visit to Italy.

However, Libya agreed to the sum under the border management deal that was struck during a visit by EU commissioners to Libya in early October. According to an EU spokesperson, under the agreement the money will be spent on assisting migrants and refugees (although Libya still does not recognise refugees or have any asylum policy), promoting better manage¬ment of migration, and funding initiatives related to border surveillance.

This deal does not mean that Libya will drop its demands for more cash in order to deal with the problem. Foreign Affairs Secretary Musa Kusa reiterated to the EU officials during their visit that 'Libya is asking the EU for €5 billion per annum to definitively stop clandestine emigra¬tion to Europe.'

Meanwhile, Libya has invested in a $28 million coastal radar system to monitor its coastline. The system, which has been provided by marine technology supplier Transas Marine, will cover almost 2,000 km and is expected to be installed within 16 months.

For more news and expert analysis about Libya, please see Libya Focus and Libya Politics & Security.

© 2010 Menas Associates

Libya - Bribery and corruption looks set to remain endemic

Bribery and corruption are endemic in Libya at all levels of the government and its agencies. "Sweeteners" in Libya are part of the culture. The country works on an extended client-patron dependency using family, tribal and regional linkages. Patrons pass benefits to clients through hierarchies. In certain circumstances benefits taken from third parties are then cascaded down the client-patron structure.

The economic imperatives are also powerful in fuelling corruption. With the exception of a brief period in the mid-1970s, government officials have been badly paid or, at times, not paid at all. The problem has been exacerbated by severe consumer price inflation which has rarely been less than 25 per cent annually in recent times.

Poor accounting procedures and loose financial controls have also enabled some to appropriate state funds. The oil business is a case in point, where, for example, there have been a number of Libyan investigations into allegations of corruption affecting the operations of Oilinvest, its Tamoil brand and their subsidiaries.

Former head of the Arab Banking Corporation, Abdullah Saudi, concluded that it was “strange” that the cash holdings of the company had declined so persistently and that the accounting system used by Oilinvest was “odd”. A subsequent commission set up with Musa Kusa, Abdel Hafid Zlitni and Mohammed Ali Huwaij came to similar conclusions. It resulted in one of Oilinvest's senior cadres, who had been in place abroad, being recalled to Tripoli.

This was probably also one reason why NOC's head Shukri Ghanem repatriated the company's procurement subsidiaries – the London based Umm al-Jawaby and Teknica (UK) Limited and the Dusseldorf based Mediterranean Oil Services GmbH (Medoil) - back to Tripoli in 2006.

Bribery is now widespread at the top level for a number of reasons including greed and insecurity as well as the constant shifting of personnel as the internal political tide ebbs and flows.

The condemnation of corruption by the Leader and particularly by his son Saif al-Islam has put the élite, who engage in corrupt practices, more on guard. In a way, however, it has also liberated this class by declaring that corruption is beyond cure. Bribery and corruption looks set to remain endemic until radical change takes place - possibly with the takeover of the reins of power by Saif al-Islam, although even he is not exempt from misconduct.

As long as the people with the power to influence the granting of licenses, agencies and contracts are united the understanding that bribery bears no stigma will remain unchallenged. There is also a low level of sensitivity on the issue because of the lack of a political opposition which could expose those who have diverted State funds.

A widespread pattern amongst those with power has been to become greedy, self-seeking and in many cases financially corrupt. In such circumstances there are openings for forms of high level influence broking. Indeed, it is possible that, outside the upstream oil sector, progress for a commercial deal would only be feasible with illicit payments or side deals.

The best advice for foreign companies is that, quite apart from ethical considerations, involvement in corrupt deals which are associated with individuals who might fall from power or who could become political pawns in a complex Libyan internal political game, carries very considerable risks.

For more news and expert analysis about Libya please see Libya Focus and Libya Politics & Security.