Preparations for parliamentary elections begin in Egypt

President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi issued a decree on Tuesday 15 July creating an electoral commission to oversee the upcoming parliamentary elections. This is in keeping with his statement last month indicating that the procedures for parliamentary elections, the first step of which is the appointment of an electoral commission, would take place before 18 July.

The commission will be formed of the head of the Court of Appeals and the eldest members of the Court of Cassation. Its formation indicates that we should expect to hear an announcement regarding the timing of elections in the next week or two. 

The vote is still expected to be held in mid to late-September, as the government is keen on completing a full transition to an elected government and it is very likely that several draft laws are being held up until a parliament is in place to approve them.

In a development that could have a significant impact on the shape of the next parliament, the Cairo Court of Appeals has overturned a ban placed on members of the now defunct National Democratic Party (NDP), which had been headed by former president Hosni Mubarak, from participating in political life. 

The new ruling means that any former NDP member of parliament may run again in the next election cycle (those convicted of crimes in the last three years will still be banned from running), and it is particularly significant given that the new parliamentary electoral law, which has been heavily criticised by the country’s political parties, heavily favours individual candidate districts.

Former members of parliament will now find it easier to run in the constituencies they had once held, as they will not be required to join a political party (most of whom have shunned former NDP members) to compete in individual districts. 

It should be noted that while previous bans failed to prevent many NDP members from running in the 2011 parliamentary elections, they performed poorly against Muslim Brotherhood candidates, who have been banned from taking part in political life.

For more news and expert analysis about Egypt, please see Egypt Politics & Security.

© 2014 Menas Associates

US-Egypt: strain in relations?

The US has yet to officially extend an invitation to President El-Sisi following his inauguration on 8 June, including for a US-Africa Leaders’ Summit set to take place on 5-6 August. Although President Barack Obama has called El-Sisi to congratulate him on his electoral victory, his call came days after most countries had already extended their congratulations.

Illustrating the strain in relations between the two countries, a proposed Senate foreign aid bill would cut aid to Egypt by US$400 million (Egypt currently receives approximately US$1.5 billion in annual military and economic aid). While many Western states continue to harbour reservations towards the politics of Egypt’s new leadership, we do expect that as President El-Sisi’s administration settles into office, a slow rapprochement will begin to take place.

In our visit to Washington DC last week, it is clear that there is an element of discomfort about Egypt and its seemingly one-sided political process, heavy-handed judiciary and a lack of institution building. It seems to be perceived in several institutions in Washington that Egypt’s authorities do not really care about these concerns, knowing that the US government will not cut aid substantially for years.

There is hope in Washington that there will be a political calming in Egypt but there is also a high scepticism that the body politic will not be inclusive and that figures will create a one-sided narrative that does not allow for critique. It is clear that discussions in Washington about how to engage productively with Egypt will continue for some time, with frustration with a lack of process and real engagement set to rise.

For more news and expert analysis about Egypt, please see Egypt Politics & Security.

© 2014 Menas Associates

Egypt: Army Sweep in the Sinai

Military sources said that 13 jihadi militants were killed in an air strike in northern Sinai. They said that the Air Force launched a series of strikes against militants around the city of el-Arish in northern Sinai, targeting houses, shops, vehicles and other gathering points. The army moved in later to targets near Sheikh Zuweyid and picked up four suspects, two of them Palestinians.

The strikes were in response to the downing of a military helicopter by the Ansar Bayt Al-Maqdis (Supporters of Jerusalem) which has said it was behind a spate of attacks on security targets.

Militants have increased their attacks since Morsi was ousted as president in July. The group also said it had carried out the attack last month on the gas export pipeline to Jordan as part of a campaign to "target the regime's economic interests".

The Egyptian authorities have in effect cited the attacks as evidence that the Muslim Brotherhood is a terrorist organisation - without producing evidence that the Brotherhood is behind the attacks. Once again, clashes broke out after Friday prayers between security forces and Brotherhood supporters in Cairo and Alexandria.

A car bomb targeting a bus carrying Egyptian soldiers wounded three civilians near Rafah in the Sinai, security officials said.

A police conscript was killed by unidentified gunmen in Sharqiya in the Nile Delta. Sherif Bayoumi, 30, and another conscript, El-Tablawi Mousa, 31, were shot at by hooded men riding a motorcycle. Bayoumi died soon after being transferred to hospital, while Mousa is in critical condition. Both victims sustained gunshot wounds to the head, reported Al-Ahram's Arabic website.

For more news and expert analysis about Egypt, please see Egypt Politics & Security.

© 2014 Menas Associates