Egypt: American energy worker killed in apparent carjacking near Cairo

An American employee of Texas-based energy company Apache Corp has been killed in an apparent carjacking in the western Egyptian desert, officials said on 10 August.

"The victim was a long-time employee who works with production operations and we are deeply saddened by his death," Apache spokesman Bill Mintz said. "Apache is working with authorities and a full investigation is underway."

Mintz stated that the attack occurred on Wednesday 6 August as the employee was driving in the desert between Qarun and Karama, southwest of Cairo, although the exact details of the attack are still uncertain.

It has been confirmed that the Apache employee died as the result of gunshot wounds. Egyptian security officials have, however, stated that the worker's body was found in a car on a road outside Cairo with another foreigner who had been working with the Egyptian government-owned company Qarun Petroleum. 

Mintz said he was receiving conflicting information about whether the Apache worker was alone or accompanied by someone else but confirmed that the Apache employee was the only victim who had been shot. It does, however, remain unclear as to whether or not this means the American was the only casualty.

Egyptian security officials, who asked for anonymity as they were not authorized to speak to the media, said that investigations were ongoing to determine who was responsible for the 6 August attack. 

The victim's name was not immediately released as family members were still being notified and the nationality of the alleged survivor has not been disclosed while investigations continue. 

For expert analysis of Egypt's security, politics, economy, and business environment see Egypt Politics & Security or contact info@menas.co.uk

© 2014 Menas Associates

IOCs evacuate staff from Libya

Italian energy giant, ENI, has responded to the escalating violence in the capital by moving fifteen members of its staff out of Tripoli. The employees were moved to the offshore Bouri oilfield before being whisked away to Malta and onto Italy.

French company Total has also moved its staff out of the capital, getting them out of the country by road to Tunisia. The United Nations has also pulled its remaining staff out of the country. 

Following the abduction and beheading of a Filipino construction worker on 15 July, the Philippines government ordered its estimated 13,000 nationals in Libya to leave the country, instructing them to contact the embassy in Tripoli for instructions on "mass evacuation."

Yet how such evacuations are going to take place while the airport is out of action and with little prospect of its restarting operations any time soon is unclear. 

Although the airport at Zawara is preparing to take both domestic and international flights, it is still going to take several days before it is in a position to do so. It also still requires the agreement and support of the Ministry of Transport and the Civil Aviation Authority. More importantly there are still question marks over safety and insurance issues.  

Meanwhile there are growing fears about evacuation by road given that the confrontation has now spilled beyond the airport area and out to Janzour. 

For more news and expert analysis about Libya, please see Libya Focus and Libya Politics & Security.

© 2014 Menas Associates

Terror attacks continue in Kenya coastal counties

The security situation in coastal Kenya remains beyond state control. In the past two weeks, three further attacks have taken place. Attacks in Lamu and Tana River Counties, which have again been claimed by Somalia’s Al Shabaab militant Islamists, have resulted in the deaths of at least 22 people. The attacks took place on the night of Saturday 5 July.

The Tana River County attack was in the small town of Gamba, where detainees were freed from police cells and nine people were killed. At least a further 13 died at Hindi close to Mpeketoni in Lamu County. Al Shabaab claimed to have freed 40 detainees and to have killed 60 people in the process.

On the night of 11 July the village of Pandanguo was attacked by a gang of up to 60 people. Six police reservist guns were taken. Pandanguo is close to the village of Witu where, on the night of 22 June, another attack saw 11 people brutally killed.

Lamu County is fast turning into a war zone. People are fleeing the insecurity with at least 2,500 people being served by the Kenyan Red Cross in displaced people’s camps and many more relocating under their own resources. Some are reportedly questioning the government’s inept response which has allowed these attacks to continue.

The state’s response remains confused. Military spokesman Major Emmanuel Chirchir continues to contradict President Uhuru Kenyatta by pinning the blame for the attacks on Al Shabaab. Meanwhile, the Hindi and Tana River attacks have been blamed on the Mombasa Republican Council (MRC).

The MRC was founded in 1999 and seeks to establish an independent state based around Mombasa. It strongly denies the allegations. In a July 7 statement released on its Facebook page, they called on people “not to fall into the government’s trap of creating war between communities” and that “whether you like it or not, the Mombasa Republic will take its place amongst nations”. Prior to the Hindi and Gamba attacks the police reported the arrest of four alleged MRC members in Mombasa.

Mombasa itself remains tense. A Russian tourist was shot dead on Sunday 6 July while touring the UNESCO Heritage Site of Fort Jesus. It is unclear if the attack was a simple robbery or a terror attack that was targeting tourists.

On Friday 11 July the controversial businessman, Mohamed Shahid Butt, was assassinated in his car coming back from Mombasa’s Moi International airport. Butt was facing charges for inciting radicalism in the town and last appeared in court in December 2013. His shooting is suspected to have been carried out by state security officials in the Anti-Terror Police Unit. Similarly, the Al Shabaab-supporting cleric, Abubaker Shariff Ahmed, was murdered in April 2014.

The recent months have exposed the new frailties in Kenya. The traditional rivalries of the leadership of the country’s main tribes and their political groupings continue, but it is almost as a sideshow. Intensifying conflicts on the edges of the Kenyan state - in its arid north and its increasingly unstable if not ungovernable coastal region - present an increasingly acute risk to investors. The tourism sector is collapsing in the face of terror.

For more news and expert analysis about East Africa, please see East Africa Politics & Security.

© 2014 Menas Associates

New security system for Algeria oil bases

Last week’s return of foreign workers to the Tiguentourine gas facility at In Amenas is based on the implementation of new security measures at Algeria’s oil and gas fields and their various installations. The new measures are reported to cover the four regions: the In Salah-Adrar basin, Hassi R'Mel, Hassi Messaoud and the southeast area encompassing Tiafti and In Amenas.

Our understanding of the new measures is that some 80 oil installations have been linked together in a new early warning preventative warning system. This includes intensive monitoring operations over oil and gas fields by military aircraft, as well as an alarm control system operated by Sonatrach that is triggered in the event of the discovery of any infiltration into 50 and 100 km security perimeters surrounding oil fields and bases. The military presence in areas close to industrial centres, oil and gas fields, and bases that have foreign employees has also been strengthened.

In addition, considerable emphasis has been placed on recruitment, not only at the point of recruitment, but throughout the period of employment and after the departure of the employee. This is because the terrorist attackers at In Amenas are believed to have collected information from former employees at the base.

Other safety procedures will include establishing a national security database that will hold the identity and a detailed biography of all Algerian and foreign workers in the oil companies.

For more news and expert analysis about Algeria, please see Algeria Focus and Algeria Politics & Security.

© 2014 Menas Associates

Algerian army "invades Libya"

For the last two weeks we have been establishing whether or not Algerian troops have “invaded” Libya as was reported in the London Times on 30 May and in Algeria’s El Watan newspaper on 6 June. Last week, we said that we were “inclined to believe that that some, or even a large part, of these forces (5,000) have moved into Libya, possibly to secure a “cordon sanitaire” on the Libya side of the frontier by taking control of water holes and other strategic points, in order to ensure that there is no penetration of Libyan-based “terrorist” elements into Algeria.”

This week we received direct, personal confirmation from France’s former Foreign Minister, Bernard Kouchner, that “the Algerian army has invaded Libya”. We have also received confirmation from other sources. Not only have these forces, believed to be at least 5,000 strong and backed up by air power, established, as we suggested last week, a “cordon sanitaire” on the Libyan side of the frontier, but it is widely believed that they have launched strikes deep into Libya against armed groups (generally referred to as “terrorists” or “jihadists”) that have set up base in southern Libya over the last year or so.

As the Algerian constitution prohibits its forces from taking part in military action outside its own territory, the government will almost certainly continue to deny that this operation is taking place, as it has done so far. For instance, on 10 June, Prime Minister Sellal told the Senate that the army will not undertake any operation outside Algerian territory, a principle, he said, that was enshrined in the constitution.

Besides the constitutional issue, many Algerians would find it totally unacceptable that its forces were engaged in concert with those of France and the US, especially in another Muslim country.

Thus, the longer the Libyan operation goes on, the more likely we are to hear the government talking about how Algeria’s borders are being threatened by terrorists and justifying troop movements and the like in the border areas. There have been several such articles in the Algerian media this week. For example, on 18 June it was reported that terrorists in Tunisia, Libya and Mali were trying to carry out attacks on Algeria. The Echorouk daily newspaper said that “The terrorist threat doesn’t stop planning attacks to sabotage Algeria’s security. To this end, Algeria, with its combined forces, expresses its determination to clean up its territory of terrorists.”

For more news and expert analysis about Algeria, please see Algeria Focus and Algeria Politics & Security.

© 2014 Menas Associates

Libya pushes ahead with plan for parliamentary elections

Somewhat incredibly Libya is still pushing ahead with its plan to hold elections for a new parliament on 25 June. Despite the upheaval and chaos, some Libyans seem to believe that electing a new ruling body at this time will work as a sort of panacea and provide the country with the opportunity for a new start.

Even General Khalifa Haftar, who is battling it out against militants in the east, declared this week that he would halt all fighting for one day on 25 June so that the polls can go ahead.

Yet such optimism may well be misplaced. It is true that electing a new parliament will refresh the political scene. It is also likely to result in the Islamists losing some of their grip on power. This week the campaign poster of a Muslim Brotherhood candidate, Ali Bouzakok, was torn down by angry crowds in Benghazi.

While the Islamists will not disappear from the scene completely, it seems almost certain, given the ongoing hostility towards them, that they will not be able to dominate the parliament in the way they have been able to dominate the Congress.

However, with the country so polarised and with the central authorities still lacking in any real power or authority, it is difficult to see how these elections will really alter the status quo. Furthermore, some of the thornier issues, such as whether or not to elect a new President directly or indirectly, still have to be thrashed out, meaning that the potential for further deadlock is still a reality.

Added to all this the fact that the number of voters who have registered for these elections is still so low; it is difficult to see how this new parliament will have any real legitimacy.

For more news and expert analysis about Libya, please see Libya Focus and Libya Politics & Security.

© 2014 Menas Associates

Kazakhstan increases crude oil export duty

The Kazakhstan government has increased the so-called ‘export customs duty’ (ECD) on crude oil from $60 to $80/ton. This change will take effect on 1 April, according to economy and budget planning minister Yerbolat Dosaev, who unveiled the new export tariff at a ministerial meeting.

The ECD increase should boost this year’s projected government revenue by $2.7 billion. The economy ministry has added $1.6 billion to this total in the form of extra tax income to be derived from the exporting industries’ future profits, which are widely expected to ameliorate after the 20% devaluation of the tenge in February 2014.

The ECD was introduced in May 2008 at the rate of $110/ton at a time when international oil prices were as high as $125/barrel. It was argued that the new duty would enable Kazakhstan to benefit fully from increasingly favourable conditions on global markets as well as its expected stabilising domestic effect.

In January 2009, however, the government scrapped the ECD after oil prices had fallen from their historic highs. As the global market stabilised the ECD was re-introduced in August 2010 at the rate of $20/ton. This was applied to all Kazakhstan-based oil exporters except those whose production-sharing agreements guaranteed stability of the customs regime. In January 2011 the ECD was increased to $40/ton and then again to $60 in April 2013.

The government plans for at least 6% GDP growth by the end of 2014, while also containing annual inflation below a 6–8% cap. The benchmark oil price that serves as the basis for all income and expenditure forecasts has also been increased, from $90 a barrel to $95. Some local analysts have already expressed their scepticism about the latter benchmark, given the possible impact of the crisis in Ukraine on future global oil market stability.

Earlier this month the US administration announced its intention to release around 5 million barrels of crude to the market and cited the need to test the sustainability of the US oil infrastructure after a recent surge of domestic production. Some have seen this, however, as a calculated move as part of Washington’s efforts to punish Moscow for its combative stance on

Ukraine’s Crimea peninsula.

While this quantity is clearly too small to have any significant impact on oil prices, expanding US domestic production may upset both Russia’s and Kazakhstan’s medium- to long-term price expectations.

For more news and expert analysis about the Caspian region, please see Caspian Focus.

© 2014 Menas Associates

Nigeria: Sanusi suspension becomes test of will for Jonathan

Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) governor Sanusi Lamido Sanusi is challenging his suspension by President Goodluck Jonathan in the courts, and the case is becoming an overwhelmingly political clash as accusations are traded publicly.

Sanusi submitted a 36-point memorandum to Jonathan on 17 March which containing detailed rebuttals of the allegations against him contained in a Financial Reporting Council of Nigeria briefing note.

Jonathan’s February suspension of Sanusi was preceded by earlier attempts to get the governor to resign before the June 2014 end of his term. Initially, Sanusi said that he would not seek reinstatement to his post but would test the constitutional legitimacy of the suspension in court to establish a legal principle.

Having been sent a list of infractions at the bank under his management, Sanusi has analysed them and seems to have changed his strategy. He is now publicly asking Jonathan to reinstate him for the remaining three months of his tenure.

A long political and legal battle looms but it is certain that Jonathan will use every tactic to ensure that Sanusi does not get access to the governor’s office before his tenure formally ends. 

The trend of claims and counter-claims in the dispute suggests that there will not be an independent and credible effort to investigate the basis of Sanusi’s concerns about the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation, which has been unable to account for failing to transfer some US$49.8 billion in revenues from January 2012 to July 2013 to the CBN accounts.

Acknowledging that he lacks the constitutional power to remove Sanusi from office, Jonathan says the governor is free to return to office once he disproves the ‘acts of financial recklessness’ allegations against him. These supposedly arose from recently received audits of CBN accounts.

Sanusi’s quick response to Jonathan’s allegations was to allege that there was a conspiracy supported by bank chiefs who are unhappy that they would have to open their books to independent auditors so that the missing billions can be tracked.

This view, relating to the role of Nigeria’s banks as likely intermediaries in corrupt flows of funds, has been voiced by Sanusi and other financial experts. Prior to his appointment as CBN governor, Sanusi was chief executive of First Bank Nigeria, through which billions of state oil earnings are transferred between state agencies and other institutions.

Sanusi will meet Justice Gabriel Kolawole later this week when he attends a rescheduled hearing on the case. 

For more news and expert analysis about Nigeria, please see Nigeria Focus and Nigeria Politics & Security.

© 2014 Menas Associates

Nigeria: Finance Minister seeks to reassure international community

Minister of Finance Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala has assured the international community of the government's seriousness over the issue of financial accountability.

The political and international nature of the NNPC dispute has become increasingly clear to Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala who is not only Minister of Finance but also a former senior World Bank official and former candidate for Bank leadership. According to some analysts, her position and reputation have been damaged by the affair despite her calls, which preceded Jonathan’s authorisation, for a forensic audit of NNPC financial affairs.  

She has even been accused of instituting a public relations “campaign” to protect her international and domestic reputation. This observation has been bolstered by her alleged use of the expensive US-based Mercury LLC public relations firm which has reportedly been used by President Jonathan’s administration since August 2013. 

This perception was perhaps bolstered by an Okonjo-Iweala piece that appeared in London’s Financial Times newspaper earlier this week. It opened with an assurance that despite “consternation in the markets” following Sanusi’s suspension and foreign exchange reserves below US$40 billion, the Naira has recovered and that the fundamentals are strong.  

Okonjo-Iweala - notably echoing Jonathan and Abati’s references to Sanusi’s three different estimates of the missing oil revenues - criticised him. She observed that Sanusi had first claimed that the figure was US$49.8 billion before he “accepted“ a finance ministry estimate of an unaccounted US$10.8 billion, before he “alleged” a “new figure” of US$20 billion. Besides the details, the minister also called for passage of the much-delayed PIB. It is clear that she was staying on message – even highlighting and supporting Jonathan’s announcement of a forensic enquiry – while also appealing to the international community.

Okonjo-Iweala was not the only senior high profile Nigerian appealing to foreign interests in London earlier this week. A large Nigerian delegation - including governors Isa Yuguda (Bauchi State), Emmanuel Uduaghan (Delta State) and Adams Oshiomhole (Edo State), former president Yakubu Gowon (1966-75) and Minister of Power Chinedu Nebo held court at the Institute of Directors. There they emphasised the attractiveness and openness of Nigeria to foreign investment and the length, admittedly including colonial rule, of the relationship between Nigeria and the UK.

For more news and expert analysis about Nigeria, please see Nigeria Focus and Nigeria Politics & Security.

© 2014 Menas Associates

Yemen: Saudis put al-Huthi on list of terrorist organisations

Saudi Arabia issued a list of terrorist organisations on 6 March which includes the obvious suspects such as Al-Qa’ida in the Arabian Peninsula but also al-Huthi and the Muslim Brotherhood (MB). The Saudis have made clear that the banning of the MB is not directed at Islah, even though it is well known that the MB is part of that party. The naming of al-Huthi follows the approval of a new law on terrorism under which a special committee was set up to designate terrorist groups.

Riyadh has long regarded al-Huthi as hostile and fought al-Huthi fighters in 2009 and 2010. However, in the past three years the border has been quiet and both sides have avoided provocations. The Saudis have little doubt that al-Huthi is supported by Iran and the Lebanese Hizbollah and thus regarded as hostile. Riyadh will have been disturbed by the rapid rise in al- Huthi power in Yemen and the challenge this poses to some of Saudi Arabia’s traditional friends in the non-MB part of Islah. It is not clear if the al-Huthi political party, Ansar Allah, is affected.

Abd al-Malik al-Huthi blames the US, as usual, for the Saudi action, which he presented as taken precipitately and suggested that the Saudis might want to reconsider the situation. 

Saudi Arabia suspended its economic support to Yemen in late 2013, claiming that it wanted to encourage the politicians to agree on a way forward. The Saudi expulsion of Yemeni illegal migrants (within a general crackdown on illegals) has inflamed anti-Saudi opinion in Yemen.

Whether the Saudis have the will and capacity to turn the banning of al-Huthi into action against the movement in Yemen is moot.

Some Yemeni politicians are concerned about the rift within the GCC between Saudi Arabia and the UAE on one hand and Qatar on the other, mostly over Qatar’s backing for the MB. Qatar played a leading role in attempts in the late 2000s to mediate between the government and al-Huthi leaders and is the main financier, so far, of the fund to address southern grievances.

For more news and expert analysis about Yemen, please see Yemen Focus.

© 2014 Menas Associates

Ghana: Ecobank CEO sacked

Ghana's Albert Essien has been appointed as the new CEO of Ecobank Transnational Incorporated, after a special 11 March meeting of the executive board in Cameroon sacked Thierry Tanoh. This follows nine months of turmoil, with mounting criticism of the governance standards under Tanoh's management.

The board also reinstated the Finance Director Laurence do Rego, who had alerted regional regulators about the abuses at the bank. Tanoh sacked Do Rego in January but was ordered to reinstate her immediately by Nigeria's Security and Exchange Commission; he chose to ignore the directive.

Tanoh survived Ecobank shareholders’ extraordinary general meeting in Lome on 3 March. But opposition to his continuing leadership of the bank was growing, with calls from both senior Ecobank officials and major shareholders, including South Africa’s state-owned Public Investment Corporation, for Tanoh to step down. South Africa’s Nedbank said that Tanoh’s tenure has made it question whether to convert Ecobank indebtedness into Ecobank stock later this year.

Details of the high-tension board meeting aside - other than noting that Ecobank will keep a 12-member board rather than institute a seven-member interim board, and amend its articles of association to limit certain transactions exceeding a specified portion of the bank’s “book” value - the Ecobank saga is also notable because of the significant pan-African or South African influence in affairs.

The Ecobank matter illustrates how African investors can pressure major operators such as the pan-African Ecobank. As well as South African pressure, Nigeria's SEC investigated governance matters in the bank with the help of KPMG auditors and played a key role in easing out both Tanoh and his ally, the former chairman Kolapo Lawson, who resigned late last year. 

For more news and expert analysis about Ghana, please see Ghana Politics & Security.

© 2014 Menas Associates

US human rights report criticises both Boko Haram and Nigerian military

Neither the Boko Haram insurgency nor the government itself escaped lightly in the new Country Report on Human Rights practices for 2013 just published by the United States State Department's Bureau of Democracy, Human Rights and Labour. 

Boko Haram - "which conducted killings, bombings, abduction and rape of women, and other attacks throughout the country, resulting in numerous deaths, injuries, and widespread destruction of property" - came in for first criticism. But the report gave over plenty of column inches for the security services, "which perpetrated extrajudicial killings, torture, rape, beatings, arbitrary detention, mistreatment of detainees, and destruction of property." 

President Goodluck Jonathan's pardon of former Bayelsa State governor, Diepreye Alamieyeseigha, who was convicted of money laundering in 2007, did not escape the attention of the report's authors. Indeed, the report was harshly critical of the small number of prosecutions against police abuse and official corruption. "Impunity remained widespread at all levels of government." The report also condemned the practice of "parading" arrestees: "Bystanders often hurled taunts, food, and other objects. Police defended this practice with the argument that public humiliation helped deter crime." 

It is a common practice. In the past week, reports appeared in the media of the parading of 13 suspected members of the "Supreme Eiye Confraternity", arrested in Lagos. In Cross Rivers State the commander of the NNS Victory arrested and paraded a dozen people who were allegedly transporting contraband worth millions of naira. While the arrests might win plaudits for the authorities, it looks like a clear violation of due process for the arrested persons whose names and photos appear in the media before they have come to trial. 

On a more positive note, the State Department researchers found that there were few reports of the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC) being used to harass political opponents of the ruling party. "Existing allegations tended to rise and fall with election cycles," the report dryly noted, leaving open the possibility that new accusations will appear as the 2015 elections approach. 

Other events were too recent to appear in the report. It said that "on 17 December a harmonized version of the 'Same Sex Marriage (Prohibition) Bill' passed the Senate." That bill, signed into law by President Jonathan in January 2014, triggered fresh round-ups of gays and lesbians and provoked international condemnation. It will be sure to feature more prominently in the 2014 report.

For more news and expert analysis about Nigeria, please see Nigeria Focus and Nigeria Politics & Security.

© 2014 Menas Associates

Libya: Preliminary results of Constitution Committee elections

The preliminary results of the elections for the constitution committee, or Sixty Committee, which was established to draw up the country’s new constitution, were released this week. Although most of those elected are not well known, the initial results indicated that the liberal trend did well.

So far, only 47 out of the committee’s members have been declared because voting has yet to take place for the remaining 13 seats. Two of these seats remain empty because they were set aside for the country’s Amazigh (Berber) minority which boycotted the elections on the grounds that the Amazigh were under-represented in the committee and because they were given no guarantee that their rights would be protected in the new constitution. 

The other 11 seats remain unfilled because the elections to these posts could not go ahead on 20 February as a result of various security issues. Despite the fact that the Higher Election Commission announced that voting would take place for these seats six days later, similar disruptions and security violations occurred, meaning the re-runs did not go ahead.

In such circumstances it is difficult to see how this committee can start work. This means that the constitution writing process is likely to be delayed even further, suggesting that Congress’ Plan B for early elections will almost certainly have to be implemented, providing that the Congress itself lasts that long. 

Indeed, the head of the Higher Election Commission, Nouri Al-Abbar, who resigned this week (see below), informed the GNC that “in the best circumstances and even with the availability of logistical support, the earliest time that elections can be held is between 5 to 10 months”. Whether Libyans will agree to wait that long has yet to be seen.

For more news and expert analysis about Libya, please see Libya Focus and Libya Politics & Security.

© 2014 Menas Associates

Baku interested in Iraqi natural gas

Azerbaijan has offered Iraq access to the Southern Gas Corridor, in a bid to help the war-torn country to export its gas to Western markets. Azerbaijani foreign minister Elmar Mammadyarov visited Baghdad on 10 February for talks with high-ranking Iraqi officials on deepening bilateral ties. 

“It is a huge project […] and it is open if Iraq has an interest in delivering its own natural gas,” Mammadyarov said during a joint press conference with his Iraqi counterpart Hoshyar Zebari. He added that other countries had already signalled to Baku their interest in contributing gas to the Southern Gas Corridor, although no details were revealed. 

Iraq produces limited quantities of natural gas, most of which is used for domestic consumption. Considerable volumes of associated gas is still flared due to the lack of facilities to use it more productively. But the government is increasingly focused on stepping production for export. 

During his meeting with Iraqi prime minister Nouri al-Maliki, Mammadyarov said that Azerbaijan was planning to open a full-fledged embassy in Baghdad in the near future. A permanent diplomatic mission in the Iraqi capital has already been authorised by the Azerbaijani parliament. “Our companies want to work and invest in Iraq, especially in its energy sector,” he added. 

Azerbaijan is not the only country interested in Iraq’s natural gas resources. Earlier this month, an Istanbul-based newspaper  quoted Turkish energy minister Taner Yildiz as saying that Ankara might prefer gas imports from Iraq to its current gas supplies from Russia, Azerbaijan and Iran. He said the price of Iraqi gas might prove much lower, because it would not have to cross foreign territory and would travel a shorter distance. 

Last June, Ashti Hawrami, minister of natural resources in Iraq’s Kurdistan Regional Government, told the press that his government envisaged the start of natural gas supplies to Turkey as early as 2016. At the initial stage, around 10 billion cubic metres of gas is planned to be supplied across the border. Iraqi Kurdistan is set to begin oil deliveries to Turkey this September.

For more news and expert analysis about the Caspian region, please see Caspian Focus.

© 2014 Menas Associates

Yemen: A plague of kidnappings

On 10 January, Al-Qa’ida in the Arabian Peninsula released Yolande Korkie, a South African it had held since May 2013, but only to facilitate demands for a ransom of $3 million for her husband, Pierre. Both are teachers working with a South African charity, Gift for Givers Foundation, which had been in touch with the kidnappers for some time to try to arrange their release.

Korkie explained that they had failed to persuade the kidnappers that their families were too poor to pay such a sum. AQAP suggested they ask Qatar or another government to intervene, perhaps hoping for a repeat of the part played by Oman in arranging freedom for two Finns and an Austrian last year (for what was said to be a very large ransom).

Gift of the Givers was given three weeks to come up with the money but said in early February that it had lost contact with the kidnappers shortly before the deadline expired, though it later received assurances that Pierre was alive and would not be executed. The couple had been in Yemen for four years and must have been aware of the risks they were running.

The UN Security Council has again called in governments and other organisations not to agree to ransom demands from kidnappers as the money is used to finance terrorism and encourages the further use of this form of extortion.

A German in his 60s studying Arabic was taken in central Sana’a on 31 January but apparently by tribesmen from Marib in dispute with the government. He should eventually be released unless the kidnappers sell him on to AQAP. A British oil worker was kidnapped on 3 February along with two Yemenis outside a supermarket at Hadda in Sana’a. Nothing is known of the motive, nor has there been any news.

An Iranian commercial attaché was killed in early January as he was leaving the residence of the Iranian ambassador in what appeared to be a bungled kidnap attempt. Another Iranian diplomat taken several months ago is still being held but the Tehran government says that he is in good health – contrary to reports that his body had been found in Marib. AQAP is also still holding the Saudi consul in Aden and there may be at least one other western hostage whose name (and even news of his kidnapping) has not been made public.

For more news and expert analysis about Yemen, please see Yemen Focus.

© 2014 Menas Associates

Libya: Violence in Benghazi continues

It has been another week of violence in Benghazi with state forces clearly no closer to curbing the campaign of assassinations and attacks that have blighted the city for months. As the spokesperson of the Joint Security Chamber in Benghazi, Ibrahim Al-Sharaf, described, “the security situation in Benghazi is still tense… The assassinations are continuing.”

On 7 February the imam of the Al-Ansari mosque in the Hadaiq area, Sheikh Atif Al-Madouli, was shot dead by gunmen as he was returning from Asr prayers. Al-Madouli is believed to have worked for the external intelligence services under the former regime.

Meanwhile, there have been a series of explosions targeting civilian locations. On 5 February, a gunman threw a grenade into the playground of a private primary school in Benghazi’s Tabalino district. The attack occurred at around 11.00 when the school playground was full. Six children were injured in the attack.

Then, on 9 February, two bombs exploded at dawn in the city. One exploded at the Arous Al-Bahr (Bride of the Sea) restaurant on the corniche. It appears that bags full of explosives had been planted all around the restaurant and destroyed it completely. The other blast occurred in Ghazir Street and was the result of a booby trapped car. It is unclear who was behind these attacks, and why these particular targets were selected, but restaurants are often associated in the minds of Islamist militants as places of vice and decadence.

It was also reported that a booby trapped car was found on the same day behind the headquarters of the Special Forces in Benghazi. Security forces are reported to have discovered 350 kilos of TNT at the site.

These attacks were followed by another explosion at dawn on 10 February in a house in the Al-Laithi district. It is currently being reported that two people were killed in the blast but this explosion actually appears to have been the result of badly stored weapons and ammunition.

For more news and expert analysis about Libya, please see Libya Focus and Libya Politics & Security.

© 2014 Menas Associates

Libya: Son of Benghazi's Special Forces head kidnapped

Ali Ouanis Bukhamada, the son of the head of Special Forces in Benghazi, Ouanis Bukhamada, was kidnapped last week from outside a restaurant behind Benghazi University. Two cars blocked the young man’s way and unknown men forced him inside one of the vehicles and drove him away.

It is not clear exactly who took the young Bukhamada but it is widely believed to be the work of an Islamist militia or group operating in the country’s second city. The Special Forces chief declared, “This is an attempt to blackmail me or to pressurise me so as to hinder us from imposing security and stability.”

According to some rumours, Ali Ouanis Bukhamada’s kidnappers demanded that Special Forces pull out of the Islamist-dominated Qawarsha neighbourhood in return for the young man’s release. Bukhamada denied these rumours and asserted, “I don’t have any forces in Qawarsha. I don’t know what they want. Let them tell us and I am quite open to them.” Other reports circulating on the internet and on social networking sites have claimed that the young man has already been killed by his abductors.

Ali Ouanis’s abduction was followed by a number of clashes between Special Forces and militant groups. One such clash occurred at a farm in Qawarsha, located on the western outskirts of Benghazi, where armed gunmen had holed themselves up and had opened fire on a helicopter engaged in a combing operation. Special Forces troops moved in on the farm, putting the area under siege and closing all the main roads that lead to it. The ensuing clashes left one soldier dead and four others injured.

In a show of support, Justice Minister Salah Al-Marghani flew to Benghazi after Ali Ouanis’s kidnap to meet his father. There is, however, little hope that the young man’s captors will be brought to justice. Going by what has happened to other kidnap victims in the city, there is limited hope too that Bukhamada will be found alive.

For more news and expert analysis about Libya, please see Libya Focus and Libya Politics & Security. 

© 2014 Menas Associates

Egypt: Morsi trial date set

Judge Nabil Saleeb announced that Mohamed Morsi and other Brotherhood members have been charged with "inciting the killing and torture of protesters in front of the Etihadeya (presidential) palace". The incident outside the presidential palace in December was seen as a turning point in the fortunes of the former president. Those killed had been protesting at his decree extending his own powers.

The trial date has been set for 4 November. The former president has been held at a secret location since he was deposed.
 

In another move against the organisation, the ministry of social solidarity officially dissolved the Muslim Brotherhood as a non-profit organisation and ordered all of its funds and assets be put under the control of the military-appointed government.

The moves underline that the authorities currently in power have no intention of heeding the advice of others that they should seek reconciliation with the Brotherhood: this hardline approach risks storing up problems for the future.
 

The armed forces have suffered their own casualties in the past week, mainly in Sinai, at the hands of jihadist extremists. The authorities are trying to conflate the Islamists in the Sinai with the Muslim Brotherhood in the popular imagination although the two Islamist groups are ideologically very different. Six soldiers were killed in an attack by gunmen on an army patrol near Ismailia on the Suez Canal; two were killed outside the security headquarters at Al Tour, regional capital of South Sinai; and four were killed by a car bomb in Al Arish in north Sinai.
 

An RPG was also fired at the satellite ground station used by Nilesat.
 

For more news and expert analysis about Egypt, please see Egypt Politics & Security.
 

© 2013 Menas Associates

Ghana: PPP anti-corruption march finally goes ahead

Following approval by Ghana's police forces the much awaited Progressive People's Party (PPP) protest against corruption finally did go ahead last week. There was an interesting tagline from a PPP national youth coordinator "Divine Nkrumah" that corruption under the Mahama government was like a "General Mosquito" causing infection that should be eliminated immediately.

The term "General Mosquito" has often been used to refer to NDC General Secretary, Johnson Asiedu Nketia , who is currently arguing for the abandonment of the party's internal Electoral College system in favour of a less secure voting system.

 

PPP protesters, carrying a range of attention-grabbing banners, relayed accusations of misappropriation of government funds and controversial "judgement debt" cases. They also echoed suggestions from PPP communications director, William Doworkpor, including the reduction of executive power, separating the Attorney General's office from the Ministry of Justice to prevent partisan interference, and setting up a new, impartial "national commission" to investigate judgement debt cases.

 

Despite the PPP's anti-corruption calls some observers have questioned the party's own claims to be above the fray on probity matters. For example the local Research and Advocacy Platform (RAP) group has accused PPP flagbearer - and former 2008 Convention People's Party (CPP) presidential candidate - Dr. Paa Kwesi Nduom (above) of being involved in corruption at the State Enterprises Commission (SEC) while working on an SEC contract in the late 1980s. The group said that Nduom fraudulently claimed to be a representative of a noted US accounting firm. Previous accusations against Nduom have claimed that he was paid a significant sum in US Dollars for his services and that he was eventually appointed to the SEC while still a contractor which is a significant conflict of interest that he has yet to explain.

 

It has been alleged that Nduom was saved from further investigation by the intervention of the US Embassy and that the matter was never resolved. RAP is now calling for the Economic and Organized Crime Office (EOCO) to reopen investigations. No political party in Ghana, no matter how small, seems safe from corruption allegations against its senior members.

 

For more news and expert analysis about Ghana, please see Ghana Politics & Security.

 

© 2013 Menas Associates

Cameroon: Security tightened amid rising insecurity on borders

Cameroon has, amid rising insecurity and tension around its borders, continued to deploy advanced security equipment to key areas. The latest is the dispatch of modern anti-crime vehicles and equipment to the Far-North Region where elements from Nigeria's Boko Haram militant Islamist sect have been infiltrating the country after clashing with the Nigerian army. The equipment was presented to the Far-North Governor Augustin Fonka Awah on 26 August.

The 17 vehicles, including heavy trucks and four-wheel drive cars, were handed to the region's paramilitary gendarmerie commander. Observers believe that following the apparent military successes against Boko Haram, its militants have been crossing over into Cameroon, now seen as their safe haven, just as is the case of those who were chased out of Mali and are believed to have joined Boko Haram in Nigeria and Cameroon or to have moved over to Niger.

 

Cameroon officials have reported repeated cross-border crime, and have arrested some individuals within its territory earlier this year that were suspected of belonging to Boko Haram. The Far-North gendarmerie commander Francis Tang Tang assured Governor Awah Fonka that, with the new equipment, the fight against crime and cross-border insecurity was guaranteed.

 

Meanwhile last week, Cameroon witnessed an overspill of violence from its eastern neighbour the Central African Republic (CAR) which forced the government to close its borders. According to the East Region's Governor Dioudonne Samuel Ihava Diboua, three soldiers belonging to the Seleka rebel movement crossed over into Cameroon territory on 19 August and killed a Cameroonian frontier policeman in the border town of Tocktoyo after having got seriously drunk on Cameroonian territory.

 

He said that the Seleka rebels, like other needy Central Africans, routinely cross over into Cameroon to get supplies. But those who killed the police official were uncontrollable at a time when the CAR's ruling junta is trying to disarm suspected supporters of ousted president Francois Bozize, who is suspected to be rallying forces to retake power. Bozize, who recently left for France, had fled into Cameroon where about 200 of his military supporters have been individually identified.

 

Cameroon had tightened security along its borders with the Central African Republic but, given the limited number of troops that it has at its disposal to secure the frontiers, as well as corruption and other problems, it might seem difficult for it to truly ensure its own security in a country that is also facing the added security requirements of its own forthcoming elections.

 

For more news and expert analysis about Cameroon, please see Cameroon Politics & Security.

© 2013 Menas Associates