Nigeria's President sounds out supporters for 2015 re-election bid

President Goodluck Jonathan won backing for a re-election bid from several People's Democratic Party (PDP) state governors and House of Representatives members at a meeting held at the Aso Rock presidential villa in Abuja in the week ending 19 July.

Insiders say Jonathan will officially declare his candidacy in late August, following the end of Ramadan and out of respect to Muslim members of the PDP. He also wants to pre-empt any rivals. His most likely opponent within the PDP for the nomination is Jigawa state’s governor Sule Lamido who has the backing of former president Olusegun Obasanjo (1999–2007).

Lamido, a quietly spoken former foreign minister, is scarcely more charismatic than Jonathan but the PDP’s northern caucus would find him more acceptable. If he mounts a serious campaign, with strong backing from PDP governors in the north, he could really damage Jonathan. This, however, requires courage and money and no one is certain about Lamido’s reserves of either commodity.

Despite this Jonathan may need to offer him a very important job if he is to be persuaded to cease and desist.

For more news and expert analysis about Nigeria or East Africa, please see Nigeria Focus and Nigeria Politics & Security.

© 2014 Menas Associates

IOCs evacuate staff from Libya

Italian energy giant, ENI, has responded to the escalating violence in the capital by moving fifteen members of its staff out of Tripoli. The employees were moved to the offshore Bouri oilfield before being whisked away to Malta and onto Italy.

French company Total has also moved its staff out of the capital, getting them out of the country by road to Tunisia. The United Nations has also pulled its remaining staff out of the country. 

Following the abduction and beheading of a Filipino construction worker on 15 July, the Philippines government ordered its estimated 13,000 nationals in Libya to leave the country, instructing them to contact the embassy in Tripoli for instructions on "mass evacuation."

Yet how such evacuations are going to take place while the airport is out of action and with little prospect of its restarting operations any time soon is unclear. 

Although the airport at Zawara is preparing to take both domestic and international flights, it is still going to take several days before it is in a position to do so. It also still requires the agreement and support of the Ministry of Transport and the Civil Aviation Authority. More importantly there are still question marks over safety and insurance issues.  

Meanwhile there are growing fears about evacuation by road given that the confrontation has now spilled beyond the airport area and out to Janzour. 

For more news and expert analysis about Libya, please see Libya Focus and Libya Politics & Security.

© 2014 Menas Associates

How will Cameroon finance pay rises?

Minister of Finance Ousmane Alamine Mey has explained that Cameroon spends CFA820 billion (US$1.69 billion) a year on government workers’ salaries.

President Paul Biya’s 5% increase in these monthly salaries will increase government spending by CFA30 billion (US$62 million) in the second half of 2014 and increase this year’s total expenditure on civil servants’ wages CFA850 billion (US$1.75 billion).

Mey did not explain, however, how the government intends to pay for the additional CFA30 billion. This is worrying because the government’s 2014 budget has already been concluded. 

Menas Associates believes that the additional income will come from increasing oil revenues. Fortunately, Cameroon is expected to witness a surge in oil production in 2014, from 24 million to 30 million barrels as new oil fields come on stream. 

Increased oil production could, therefore, provide the necessary additional revenue to finance this year’s 5% pay increase for the civil servants.

For more news and expert analysis about Cameroon, please see Cameroon Politics & Security.

© 2014 Menas Associates

Preparations for parliamentary elections begin in Egypt

President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi issued a decree on Tuesday 15 July creating an electoral commission to oversee the upcoming parliamentary elections. This is in keeping with his statement last month indicating that the procedures for parliamentary elections, the first step of which is the appointment of an electoral commission, would take place before 18 July.

The commission will be formed of the head of the Court of Appeals and the eldest members of the Court of Cassation. Its formation indicates that we should expect to hear an announcement regarding the timing of elections in the next week or two. 

The vote is still expected to be held in mid to late-September, as the government is keen on completing a full transition to an elected government and it is very likely that several draft laws are being held up until a parliament is in place to approve them.

In a development that could have a significant impact on the shape of the next parliament, the Cairo Court of Appeals has overturned a ban placed on members of the now defunct National Democratic Party (NDP), which had been headed by former president Hosni Mubarak, from participating in political life. 

The new ruling means that any former NDP member of parliament may run again in the next election cycle (those convicted of crimes in the last three years will still be banned from running), and it is particularly significant given that the new parliamentary electoral law, which has been heavily criticised by the country’s political parties, heavily favours individual candidate districts.

Former members of parliament will now find it easier to run in the constituencies they had once held, as they will not be required to join a political party (most of whom have shunned former NDP members) to compete in individual districts. 

It should be noted that while previous bans failed to prevent many NDP members from running in the 2011 parliamentary elections, they performed poorly against Muslim Brotherhood candidates, who have been banned from taking part in political life.

For more news and expert analysis about Egypt, please see Egypt Politics & Security.

© 2014 Menas Associates

Another new oil minister in Yemen

Ahmed Abdul Qader Shayyeh, who was appointed minister of oil and minerals in early June, resigned a few days later on health grounds, suggesting that the process of consulting him may have gone wrong. A new minister has now been appointed, having received a phone call from President Abd Rubuh Hadi while in London.

He is Hussein Rashid Jamal Alkaff. Alkaff is well known in oil circles in Yemen and the region, as he was a deputy minister of oil in the last years of the People’s Democratic Republic of Yemen and held the same position in the first years of unity. He subsequently became CEO of Al-Nimr, a private Saudi oil company owned by the Bin Mahfouz family, who are of Yemeni origin.

For the last few years, Alkaff has functioned as a consultant on Middle East oil, and he and his sons are the owners of Sahra Petroleum, a London- and Sana’a-based oil, gas and mining services company.

He is widely respected in the sector and has provided advice on oil policy to the government and the National Dialogue Conference. He is not a political figure, however, and has no independent power apart from through the now limited prestige of the Al-Kaff Sayyids.

For more news and expert analysis about Yemen, please see Yemen Focus.

© 2014 Menas Associates

Terror attacks continue in Kenya coastal counties

The security situation in coastal Kenya remains beyond state control. In the past two weeks, three further attacks have taken place. Attacks in Lamu and Tana River Counties, which have again been claimed by Somalia’s Al Shabaab militant Islamists, have resulted in the deaths of at least 22 people. The attacks took place on the night of Saturday 5 July.

The Tana River County attack was in the small town of Gamba, where detainees were freed from police cells and nine people were killed. At least a further 13 died at Hindi close to Mpeketoni in Lamu County. Al Shabaab claimed to have freed 40 detainees and to have killed 60 people in the process.

On the night of 11 July the village of Pandanguo was attacked by a gang of up to 60 people. Six police reservist guns were taken. Pandanguo is close to the village of Witu where, on the night of 22 June, another attack saw 11 people brutally killed.

Lamu County is fast turning into a war zone. People are fleeing the insecurity with at least 2,500 people being served by the Kenyan Red Cross in displaced people’s camps and many more relocating under their own resources. Some are reportedly questioning the government’s inept response which has allowed these attacks to continue.

The state’s response remains confused. Military spokesman Major Emmanuel Chirchir continues to contradict President Uhuru Kenyatta by pinning the blame for the attacks on Al Shabaab. Meanwhile, the Hindi and Tana River attacks have been blamed on the Mombasa Republican Council (MRC).

The MRC was founded in 1999 and seeks to establish an independent state based around Mombasa. It strongly denies the allegations. In a July 7 statement released on its Facebook page, they called on people “not to fall into the government’s trap of creating war between communities” and that “whether you like it or not, the Mombasa Republic will take its place amongst nations”. Prior to the Hindi and Gamba attacks the police reported the arrest of four alleged MRC members in Mombasa.

Mombasa itself remains tense. A Russian tourist was shot dead on Sunday 6 July while touring the UNESCO Heritage Site of Fort Jesus. It is unclear if the attack was a simple robbery or a terror attack that was targeting tourists.

On Friday 11 July the controversial businessman, Mohamed Shahid Butt, was assassinated in his car coming back from Mombasa’s Moi International airport. Butt was facing charges for inciting radicalism in the town and last appeared in court in December 2013. His shooting is suspected to have been carried out by state security officials in the Anti-Terror Police Unit. Similarly, the Al Shabaab-supporting cleric, Abubaker Shariff Ahmed, was murdered in April 2014.

The recent months have exposed the new frailties in Kenya. The traditional rivalries of the leadership of the country’s main tribes and their political groupings continue, but it is almost as a sideshow. Intensifying conflicts on the edges of the Kenyan state - in its arid north and its increasingly unstable if not ungovernable coastal region - present an increasingly acute risk to investors. The tourism sector is collapsing in the face of terror.

For more news and expert analysis about East Africa, please see East Africa Politics & Security.

© 2014 Menas Associates

Nigeria moving closer to locating kidnapped schoolgirls.

The Nigerian authorities claim that they are "moving closer" to locating the kidnapped Chibok schoolgirls, as other kidnapped women and children escape from Boko Haram.

Last week, Sid Djinnit, the regional UN representative in Dakar, told the Security Council that escalating violence against civilians is both harming Nigeria and affecting regional security, and that there have been around 18 attacks attributed to Boko Haram in the preceding two weeks. Despite this, the government continues to claim progress against the insurgents.

The military claims, for example, that it is moving closer to rescuing the Chibok schoolgirls after a wave of recent arrests that were reported to the recent National Council of State meeting in Abuja. One military spokesman claimed at the weekend that over 50 Boko Haram members were killed by its forces at its Damboa military base in Bornu State which was actually attacked by the insurgents.

In addition, there have been reports that some women and children who were kidnapped last month have escaped. Some are being treated at an Adamawa State hospital while others escaped from Boko Haram while the latter’s forces were attacking the Damboa military base.

Boko Haram leaders and their claimed associates continue to suggest negotiations over the kidnapped girls. A Boko Haram spiritual teacher said earlier this week that the Chibok girls who were kidnapped in April are in good health, even voluntarily converting to Islam: he called for Boko Haram prisoners to be released as part of negotiations.

The US' FBI claims that proceeds from Niger Delta kidnappings may have been used to fund Boko Haram's activities and have reached the group via several intermediaries. A private intelligence company, Modern Security Consulting Group, cites evidence from Nigerian insiders that Boko Haram may provide support for kidnappings, perhaps assisting pirates in moving money or acquiring weapons.

This raises the prospect of security worsening in the Niger Delta ahead of the February 2015 elections, where there is likely to be a fierce electoral contest between the ruling PDP and opposition All Progressives' Congress.

Oil industry executives are often the target of Niger Delta kidnappings but earlier this week, Golden Chioma - a member of the Rivers State House of Assembly who chairs the Rivers State House Committee on Judiciary - was allegedly kidnapped by unidentified gunmen.

For more news and expert analysis about Nigeria or East Africa, please see Nigeria Focus and Nigeria Politics & Security.

© 2014 Menas Associates

More than 150 Syrian students kidnapped by ISIS

The Islamic State of Iraq and Sham (ISIS) has allegedly abducted between 153 and 186 boys aged 13-16 in the Aleppo region of northern Syria. Although largely unreported by conventional media outlets, bar brief reports in The Guardian and VICE News, it appears that ISIS has perhaps been influenced by Boko Haram’s April kidnapping of more than 300 schoolgirls from Chibok in north-east Nigeria.

Reports have recently surfaced that on 29 May 2014 a convoy of ten minibuses successfully completed the perilous 110 km journey from Ain al-`Arab (Kobani in Kurdish), on the Turkish border, to Aleppo to sit their end-of-year-exams as required by Syria’s educational system. The returning convoy was intercepted and redirected to an ISIS-controlled Islamic school in Minbej, just 66 km from Kobani, where the vast majority of the boys have remained. The primary source of what has been reported is Mustafa Hussan, one of five boys who managed to escape four days after the initial abduction. 

Hussan reports that, although the food was good, many boys were beaten by their international ISIS captors: ‘I saw a lot of Russians, Chechens, Libyans, some Saudi Arabians and Syrians too.’ Forced to undergo lessons in Islamic Shar’ia ideology and training in jihad, the boys were threatened with beheading if they attempted to escape. In spite of this, Hussan and four fellow students managed to escape via a roof under the pretence of raising a flag while their classmates distracted their religious teacher. Hassan stated that once they had escaped they were aided in their journey home by sympathetic locals.

Since their escape, unconfirmed rumours have surfaced that a further 15 students were traded for three ISIS combatants being held by Kurdish forces. What is certain, however, is that the longer the situation remains, the more difficult it will be to extract the students. Turkey’s Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) has pledged its support to Kobani but the situation is complicated by the fact that ISIS has been carrying out deadly attacks on the city and surrounding villages since 2 July with weapons captured in Mosul. One attack, at Sheyoh, saw the execution of 24 Kurds, including two children.

Within the majority Kurdish city there is little faith that anyone outside of Kobani will help. According to a 2013 estimate by the Syrian Central Bureau of Statistics (CBS), over 85% of the total population of 44, 821 is Kurdish, with small Arab (5%), Turkomen ( 5%) and Armenian (1%) minorities.  The city itself is accustomed to both violence and its status as a minority stronghold. Founded in 1915 by Armenians fleeing genocide in Anatolia, who mostly emigrated to the Soviet Union in the 1960s, part of the city fell foul of the demarcation of the Syrian and Turkish border and has been assimilated into the Turkish city of Suruç. 

The vast majority of Kurds, following the principal of “my enemy’s enemy is my friend”, supported Syria’s minority Shi’a Alawite regime, believing that if the country were governed by the majority Sunni populace the Kurds would themselves be further ostracised and persecuted. In addition to what is taking place in the Kurdistan region of Iraq, which is proving a stumbling block to ISIS’ unrealistic attempts to form an Islamic Caliphate stretching from the Gulf to the Atlantic, the Syrian Kurdish allegiance to the regime has seen them become a target for sustained siege and, now, kidnapping and executions.

While the precise facts of what has happened remain unverified, what has crystallised is ISIS’ willingness to kidnap and enlist children in armed conflict, considered war crimes under International Humanitarian Law, to achieve its aims.

For more news and expert analysis about Iraq, please see Iraq Focus.

© 2014 Menas Associates

More alleged Renamo attacks and civilian deaths in Mozambique

There have been more alleged Renamo attacks in Sofala Province near Muxungue, with one taking place on 25 June, Mozambique’s Independence Day. Media reports suggest that during the week of 23-28 June, at least 12 people were killed, including four civilians, and many others were injured.

The army-protected convoys have now been reduced, adversely disrupting trade between the centre and south of the country. Lorry drivers travelling from Zimbabwe, Zambia and Malawi to the regional port of Beira have also been affected.

There have also been reports of minor attacks and exchanges of gunfire in other regions of the country. In Tete Province, for example, the local media reported that Renamo had attacked a police post in Chiuta and stole weapons. There were other cases of armed attacks in the province but it is believed that these could be the work of local criminals taking advantage of the current security instability.

There were reports of an exchange of gunfire between Renamo men and government soldiers in Zambezia Province when the army tried to dismantle a temporary Renamo base near Gurue District. Some of these attacks took place just before and during the Renamo meeting in Beira, and Renamo's leader Afonso Dhlakama has been asked by his supporters to explain why civilians were targeted. His response was that "the government is using civilian cars to transport weapons by road".

Dhlakama’s position has also been corroborated by a local priest, Jose Luiz Gonzalez, who has been working for the past six years on a local project run by US-based Catholic missionaries. He told reporters that Renamo does not attack civilians and that when there are civilian victims, it is because there are soldiers in the civilian convoys. The priest also stressed that in his area of Muxungue the local people do not agree with Renamo’s plan to divide the country and also do not support the violence.

For more news and expert analysis about Mozambique, please see Mozambique Politics & Security.

© 2014 Menas Associates

Algerian army "invades Libya"

For the last two weeks we have been establishing whether or not Algerian troops have “invaded” Libya as was reported in the London Times on 30 May and in Algeria’s El Watan newspaper on 6 June. Last week, we said that we were “inclined to believe that that some, or even a large part, of these forces (5,000) have moved into Libya, possibly to secure a “cordon sanitaire” on the Libya side of the frontier by taking control of water holes and other strategic points, in order to ensure that there is no penetration of Libyan-based “terrorist” elements into Algeria.”

This week we received direct, personal confirmation from France’s former Foreign Minister, Bernard Kouchner, that “the Algerian army has invaded Libya”. We have also received confirmation from other sources. Not only have these forces, believed to be at least 5,000 strong and backed up by air power, established, as we suggested last week, a “cordon sanitaire” on the Libyan side of the frontier, but it is widely believed that they have launched strikes deep into Libya against armed groups (generally referred to as “terrorists” or “jihadists”) that have set up base in southern Libya over the last year or so.

As the Algerian constitution prohibits its forces from taking part in military action outside its own territory, the government will almost certainly continue to deny that this operation is taking place, as it has done so far. For instance, on 10 June, Prime Minister Sellal told the Senate that the army will not undertake any operation outside Algerian territory, a principle, he said, that was enshrined in the constitution.

Besides the constitutional issue, many Algerians would find it totally unacceptable that its forces were engaged in concert with those of France and the US, especially in another Muslim country.

Thus, the longer the Libyan operation goes on, the more likely we are to hear the government talking about how Algeria’s borders are being threatened by terrorists and justifying troop movements and the like in the border areas. There have been several such articles in the Algerian media this week. For example, on 18 June it was reported that terrorists in Tunisia, Libya and Mali were trying to carry out attacks on Algeria. The Echorouk daily newspaper said that “The terrorist threat doesn’t stop planning attacks to sabotage Algeria’s security. To this end, Algeria, with its combined forces, expresses its determination to clean up its territory of terrorists.”

For more news and expert analysis about Algeria, please see Algeria Focus and Algeria Politics & Security.

© 2014 Menas Associates

Libya pushes ahead with plan for parliamentary elections

Somewhat incredibly Libya is still pushing ahead with its plan to hold elections for a new parliament on 25 June. Despite the upheaval and chaos, some Libyans seem to believe that electing a new ruling body at this time will work as a sort of panacea and provide the country with the opportunity for a new start.

Even General Khalifa Haftar, who is battling it out against militants in the east, declared this week that he would halt all fighting for one day on 25 June so that the polls can go ahead.

Yet such optimism may well be misplaced. It is true that electing a new parliament will refresh the political scene. It is also likely to result in the Islamists losing some of their grip on power. This week the campaign poster of a Muslim Brotherhood candidate, Ali Bouzakok, was torn down by angry crowds in Benghazi.

While the Islamists will not disappear from the scene completely, it seems almost certain, given the ongoing hostility towards them, that they will not be able to dominate the parliament in the way they have been able to dominate the Congress.

However, with the country so polarised and with the central authorities still lacking in any real power or authority, it is difficult to see how these elections will really alter the status quo. Furthermore, some of the thornier issues, such as whether or not to elect a new President directly or indirectly, still have to be thrashed out, meaning that the potential for further deadlock is still a reality.

Added to all this the fact that the number of voters who have registered for these elections is still so low; it is difficult to see how this new parliament will have any real legitimacy.

For more news and expert analysis about Libya, please see Libya Focus and Libya Politics & Security.

© 2014 Menas Associates

Kazakhstan increases crude oil export duty

The Kazakhstan government has increased the so-called ‘export customs duty’ (ECD) on crude oil from $60 to $80/ton. This change will take effect on 1 April, according to economy and budget planning minister Yerbolat Dosaev, who unveiled the new export tariff at a ministerial meeting.

The ECD increase should boost this year’s projected government revenue by $2.7 billion. The economy ministry has added $1.6 billion to this total in the form of extra tax income to be derived from the exporting industries’ future profits, which are widely expected to ameliorate after the 20% devaluation of the tenge in February 2014.

The ECD was introduced in May 2008 at the rate of $110/ton at a time when international oil prices were as high as $125/barrel. It was argued that the new duty would enable Kazakhstan to benefit fully from increasingly favourable conditions on global markets as well as its expected stabilising domestic effect.

In January 2009, however, the government scrapped the ECD after oil prices had fallen from their historic highs. As the global market stabilised the ECD was re-introduced in August 2010 at the rate of $20/ton. This was applied to all Kazakhstan-based oil exporters except those whose production-sharing agreements guaranteed stability of the customs regime. In January 2011 the ECD was increased to $40/ton and then again to $60 in April 2013.

The government plans for at least 6% GDP growth by the end of 2014, while also containing annual inflation below a 6–8% cap. The benchmark oil price that serves as the basis for all income and expenditure forecasts has also been increased, from $90 a barrel to $95. Some local analysts have already expressed their scepticism about the latter benchmark, given the possible impact of the crisis in Ukraine on future global oil market stability.

Earlier this month the US administration announced its intention to release around 5 million barrels of crude to the market and cited the need to test the sustainability of the US oil infrastructure after a recent surge of domestic production. Some have seen this, however, as a calculated move as part of Washington’s efforts to punish Moscow for its combative stance on

Ukraine’s Crimea peninsula.

While this quantity is clearly too small to have any significant impact on oil prices, expanding US domestic production may upset both Russia’s and Kazakhstan’s medium- to long-term price expectations.

For more news and expert analysis about the Caspian region, please see Caspian Focus.

© 2014 Menas Associates

Nigeria: Sanusi suspension becomes test of will for Jonathan

Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) governor Sanusi Lamido Sanusi is challenging his suspension by President Goodluck Jonathan in the courts, and the case is becoming an overwhelmingly political clash as accusations are traded publicly.

Sanusi submitted a 36-point memorandum to Jonathan on 17 March which containing detailed rebuttals of the allegations against him contained in a Financial Reporting Council of Nigeria briefing note.

Jonathan’s February suspension of Sanusi was preceded by earlier attempts to get the governor to resign before the June 2014 end of his term. Initially, Sanusi said that he would not seek reinstatement to his post but would test the constitutional legitimacy of the suspension in court to establish a legal principle.

Having been sent a list of infractions at the bank under his management, Sanusi has analysed them and seems to have changed his strategy. He is now publicly asking Jonathan to reinstate him for the remaining three months of his tenure.

A long political and legal battle looms but it is certain that Jonathan will use every tactic to ensure that Sanusi does not get access to the governor’s office before his tenure formally ends. 

The trend of claims and counter-claims in the dispute suggests that there will not be an independent and credible effort to investigate the basis of Sanusi’s concerns about the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation, which has been unable to account for failing to transfer some US$49.8 billion in revenues from January 2012 to July 2013 to the CBN accounts.

Acknowledging that he lacks the constitutional power to remove Sanusi from office, Jonathan says the governor is free to return to office once he disproves the ‘acts of financial recklessness’ allegations against him. These supposedly arose from recently received audits of CBN accounts.

Sanusi’s quick response to Jonathan’s allegations was to allege that there was a conspiracy supported by bank chiefs who are unhappy that they would have to open their books to independent auditors so that the missing billions can be tracked.

This view, relating to the role of Nigeria’s banks as likely intermediaries in corrupt flows of funds, has been voiced by Sanusi and other financial experts. Prior to his appointment as CBN governor, Sanusi was chief executive of First Bank Nigeria, through which billions of state oil earnings are transferred between state agencies and other institutions.

Sanusi will meet Justice Gabriel Kolawole later this week when he attends a rescheduled hearing on the case. 

For more news and expert analysis about Nigeria, please see Nigeria Focus and Nigeria Politics & Security.

© 2014 Menas Associates

Nigeria: Finance Minister seeks to reassure international community

Minister of Finance Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala has assured the international community of the government's seriousness over the issue of financial accountability.

The political and international nature of the NNPC dispute has become increasingly clear to Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala who is not only Minister of Finance but also a former senior World Bank official and former candidate for Bank leadership. According to some analysts, her position and reputation have been damaged by the affair despite her calls, which preceded Jonathan’s authorisation, for a forensic audit of NNPC financial affairs.  

She has even been accused of instituting a public relations “campaign” to protect her international and domestic reputation. This observation has been bolstered by her alleged use of the expensive US-based Mercury LLC public relations firm which has reportedly been used by President Jonathan’s administration since August 2013. 

This perception was perhaps bolstered by an Okonjo-Iweala piece that appeared in London’s Financial Times newspaper earlier this week. It opened with an assurance that despite “consternation in the markets” following Sanusi’s suspension and foreign exchange reserves below US$40 billion, the Naira has recovered and that the fundamentals are strong.  

Okonjo-Iweala - notably echoing Jonathan and Abati’s references to Sanusi’s three different estimates of the missing oil revenues - criticised him. She observed that Sanusi had first claimed that the figure was US$49.8 billion before he “accepted“ a finance ministry estimate of an unaccounted US$10.8 billion, before he “alleged” a “new figure” of US$20 billion. Besides the details, the minister also called for passage of the much-delayed PIB. It is clear that she was staying on message – even highlighting and supporting Jonathan’s announcement of a forensic enquiry – while also appealing to the international community.

Okonjo-Iweala was not the only senior high profile Nigerian appealing to foreign interests in London earlier this week. A large Nigerian delegation - including governors Isa Yuguda (Bauchi State), Emmanuel Uduaghan (Delta State) and Adams Oshiomhole (Edo State), former president Yakubu Gowon (1966-75) and Minister of Power Chinedu Nebo held court at the Institute of Directors. There they emphasised the attractiveness and openness of Nigeria to foreign investment and the length, admittedly including colonial rule, of the relationship between Nigeria and the UK.

For more news and expert analysis about Nigeria, please see Nigeria Focus and Nigeria Politics & Security.

© 2014 Menas Associates

Yemen: Saudis put al-Huthi on list of terrorist organisations

Saudi Arabia issued a list of terrorist organisations on 6 March which includes the obvious suspects such as Al-Qa’ida in the Arabian Peninsula but also al-Huthi and the Muslim Brotherhood (MB). The Saudis have made clear that the banning of the MB is not directed at Islah, even though it is well known that the MB is part of that party. The naming of al-Huthi follows the approval of a new law on terrorism under which a special committee was set up to designate terrorist groups.

Riyadh has long regarded al-Huthi as hostile and fought al-Huthi fighters in 2009 and 2010. However, in the past three years the border has been quiet and both sides have avoided provocations. The Saudis have little doubt that al-Huthi is supported by Iran and the Lebanese Hizbollah and thus regarded as hostile. Riyadh will have been disturbed by the rapid rise in al- Huthi power in Yemen and the challenge this poses to some of Saudi Arabia’s traditional friends in the non-MB part of Islah. It is not clear if the al-Huthi political party, Ansar Allah, is affected.

Abd al-Malik al-Huthi blames the US, as usual, for the Saudi action, which he presented as taken precipitately and suggested that the Saudis might want to reconsider the situation. 

Saudi Arabia suspended its economic support to Yemen in late 2013, claiming that it wanted to encourage the politicians to agree on a way forward. The Saudi expulsion of Yemeni illegal migrants (within a general crackdown on illegals) has inflamed anti-Saudi opinion in Yemen.

Whether the Saudis have the will and capacity to turn the banning of al-Huthi into action against the movement in Yemen is moot.

Some Yemeni politicians are concerned about the rift within the GCC between Saudi Arabia and the UAE on one hand and Qatar on the other, mostly over Qatar’s backing for the MB. Qatar played a leading role in attempts in the late 2000s to mediate between the government and al-Huthi leaders and is the main financier, so far, of the fund to address southern grievances.

For more news and expert analysis about Yemen, please see Yemen Focus.

© 2014 Menas Associates

Ghana: Ecobank CEO sacked

Ghana's Albert Essien has been appointed as the new CEO of Ecobank Transnational Incorporated, after a special 11 March meeting of the executive board in Cameroon sacked Thierry Tanoh. This follows nine months of turmoil, with mounting criticism of the governance standards under Tanoh's management.

The board also reinstated the Finance Director Laurence do Rego, who had alerted regional regulators about the abuses at the bank. Tanoh sacked Do Rego in January but was ordered to reinstate her immediately by Nigeria's Security and Exchange Commission; he chose to ignore the directive.

Tanoh survived Ecobank shareholders’ extraordinary general meeting in Lome on 3 March. But opposition to his continuing leadership of the bank was growing, with calls from both senior Ecobank officials and major shareholders, including South Africa’s state-owned Public Investment Corporation, for Tanoh to step down. South Africa’s Nedbank said that Tanoh’s tenure has made it question whether to convert Ecobank indebtedness into Ecobank stock later this year.

Details of the high-tension board meeting aside - other than noting that Ecobank will keep a 12-member board rather than institute a seven-member interim board, and amend its articles of association to limit certain transactions exceeding a specified portion of the bank’s “book” value - the Ecobank saga is also notable because of the significant pan-African or South African influence in affairs.

The Ecobank matter illustrates how African investors can pressure major operators such as the pan-African Ecobank. As well as South African pressure, Nigeria's SEC investigated governance matters in the bank with the help of KPMG auditors and played a key role in easing out both Tanoh and his ally, the former chairman Kolapo Lawson, who resigned late last year. 

For more news and expert analysis about Ghana, please see Ghana Politics & Security.

© 2014 Menas Associates

US human rights report criticises both Boko Haram and Nigerian military

Neither the Boko Haram insurgency nor the government itself escaped lightly in the new Country Report on Human Rights practices for 2013 just published by the United States State Department's Bureau of Democracy, Human Rights and Labour. 

Boko Haram - "which conducted killings, bombings, abduction and rape of women, and other attacks throughout the country, resulting in numerous deaths, injuries, and widespread destruction of property" - came in for first criticism. But the report gave over plenty of column inches for the security services, "which perpetrated extrajudicial killings, torture, rape, beatings, arbitrary detention, mistreatment of detainees, and destruction of property." 

President Goodluck Jonathan's pardon of former Bayelsa State governor, Diepreye Alamieyeseigha, who was convicted of money laundering in 2007, did not escape the attention of the report's authors. Indeed, the report was harshly critical of the small number of prosecutions against police abuse and official corruption. "Impunity remained widespread at all levels of government." The report also condemned the practice of "parading" arrestees: "Bystanders often hurled taunts, food, and other objects. Police defended this practice with the argument that public humiliation helped deter crime." 

It is a common practice. In the past week, reports appeared in the media of the parading of 13 suspected members of the "Supreme Eiye Confraternity", arrested in Lagos. In Cross Rivers State the commander of the NNS Victory arrested and paraded a dozen people who were allegedly transporting contraband worth millions of naira. While the arrests might win plaudits for the authorities, it looks like a clear violation of due process for the arrested persons whose names and photos appear in the media before they have come to trial. 

On a more positive note, the State Department researchers found that there were few reports of the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC) being used to harass political opponents of the ruling party. "Existing allegations tended to rise and fall with election cycles," the report dryly noted, leaving open the possibility that new accusations will appear as the 2015 elections approach. 

Other events were too recent to appear in the report. It said that "on 17 December a harmonized version of the 'Same Sex Marriage (Prohibition) Bill' passed the Senate." That bill, signed into law by President Jonathan in January 2014, triggered fresh round-ups of gays and lesbians and provoked international condemnation. It will be sure to feature more prominently in the 2014 report.

For more news and expert analysis about Nigeria, please see Nigeria Focus and Nigeria Politics & Security.

© 2014 Menas Associates

Egypt: New government meets for first time to deal with strikes

Prime Minister Ibrahim Mehleb appealed to Egyptians’ sense of patriotism to go back to work and to call off their strikes which are crippling the national economy.

The labour unrest, however, is largely the making of government measures introduced over the past three years allied to the sense of people-power acquired since the protests started three years ago. Successive governments have sought to mollify public opinion by granting wage increases to public sector workers which are not sustainable, given the dire state of government finances. Furthermore, the increases have not been universally applied, with the police and army getting a higher increase and some workers, particularly in the transport sector, deemed ineligible for the minimum wage.

The prime minister promised to look into the demands of protesters, but it is unclear what he can propose to meet their grievances.

Those who have been on strike include bus drivers, postal workers, doctors, pharmacists and workers in the steel and textile industries. According to media reports, negotiations between the minister of communications and postal workers broke down when the minister said that there was not enough money to pay the workers what they were asking for.

The difficult economic conditions have been exacerbated by power cuts caused by a shortfall in the production and supply of natural gas to meet demand, rising at 8-10% a year.

Security challenges are also dampening economic activity. The tourism minister flew to Berlin for the major travel trade show and also to try to persuade the German authorities to reverse their advisory on citizens to avoid all of the Sinai Peninsula. The Egyptian authorities have sought to isolate Sharm el Sheikh and other resorts from the violence that has afflicted other parts of the peninsula, but the German government was unwilling to see the distinction.

For more news and expert analysis about Egypt, please see Egypt Politics & Security.

© 2014 Menas Associates

Ghana: NPP internal election chaos continues

The NPP’s election vetting committee has allowed businessman and founding member of the NPP, Paul Afoko, to continue campaigning to run for the party’s national chairmanship, but continues to suspend his vetting process.

The NPP internal election chaos is continuing because, according to party insiders, although the party’s national chairman Jake Obetsebi-Lamptey and General Secretary Kwadwo “Sir John” Owusu Afriyie continue to be the frontrunners for their respective party offices, both men are facing significant opposition at next month’s expensive party congress at the Northern Region city of Tamale. 

On the plus side, the party’s vetting committee has softened one major controversy by allowing one of Obetsebi-Lamptey’s opponents, the businessman Paul Afoko, to continue campaigning after, as we have reported in previous issues, it had earlier suspended investigations into his fitness to run following receipt of a non-attributable allegation over his alleged past wrongdoing.

Nevertheless, according to NPP elections director Martin Adjei Mensah, the vetting committee is still investigating Afoko’s suspension but has allowed him to continue campaigning for the present until a decision is taken. This has led Afoko to again voice his disappointment while campaigning in Upper West Region that the committee will not reveal the name of the party member who suggested that he had served a prison sentence in the UK for fraud.

Given that the other three other candidates for the post of national chairman have all been cleared by the vetting committee, Afoko may indeed be campaigning at a disadvantage.

For more news and expert analysis about Ghana, please see Ghana Politics & Security.

© 2014 Menas Associates

Baku interested in Iraqi natural gas

Azerbaijan has offered Iraq access to the Southern Gas Corridor, in a bid to help the war-torn country to export its gas to Western markets. Azerbaijani foreign minister Elmar Mammadyarov visited Baghdad on 10 February for talks with high-ranking Iraqi officials on deepening bilateral ties. 

“It is a huge project […] and it is open if Iraq has an interest in delivering its own natural gas,” Mammadyarov said during a joint press conference with his Iraqi counterpart Hoshyar Zebari. He added that other countries had already signalled to Baku their interest in contributing gas to the Southern Gas Corridor, although no details were revealed. 

Iraq produces limited quantities of natural gas, most of which is used for domestic consumption. Considerable volumes of associated gas is still flared due to the lack of facilities to use it more productively. But the government is increasingly focused on stepping production for export. 

During his meeting with Iraqi prime minister Nouri al-Maliki, Mammadyarov said that Azerbaijan was planning to open a full-fledged embassy in Baghdad in the near future. A permanent diplomatic mission in the Iraqi capital has already been authorised by the Azerbaijani parliament. “Our companies want to work and invest in Iraq, especially in its energy sector,” he added. 

Azerbaijan is not the only country interested in Iraq’s natural gas resources. Earlier this month, an Istanbul-based newspaper  quoted Turkish energy minister Taner Yildiz as saying that Ankara might prefer gas imports from Iraq to its current gas supplies from Russia, Azerbaijan and Iran. He said the price of Iraqi gas might prove much lower, because it would not have to cross foreign territory and would travel a shorter distance. 

Last June, Ashti Hawrami, minister of natural resources in Iraq’s Kurdistan Regional Government, told the press that his government envisaged the start of natural gas supplies to Turkey as early as 2016. At the initial stage, around 10 billion cubic metres of gas is planned to be supplied across the border. Iraqi Kurdistan is set to begin oil deliveries to Turkey this September.

For more news and expert analysis about the Caspian region, please see Caspian Focus.

© 2014 Menas Associates