Egypt-Elections: A clear-cut break with the past?

Opinion polls have little experience and no record in Egypt. This might explain the considerable divergence of projections over who might win the first round of elections. Few believe that any one candidate will secure the required 50% of the vote. That leaves the possibility of virtually any combination of two of the four or five top candidates going into run-off elections. One could see Mohamed Morsi and Ahmed Shafiq; or Morsi and Aboul Fotouh; or AbdelMoneim Aboul Fotouh and Amr Moussa; the one combination that would appear unlikely is Shafiq and Moussa as they both appeal to a similar constituency.

Each of them would have a slightly different attitude towards office and the relationship with parliament and the government. Amr Moussa, who has little domestic support base, would be likely to seek to strengthen the powers of the presidency. Shafiq would do likewise, and reach across to the military from whose senior ranks he sprang.

Morsi, by contrast, could count on support from parliament which is dominated by members of his party. His victory would mean the domination of the new political institutions - the parliament and the presidency - by a single party. More nuanced would be Aboul Fotouh, who is portraying himself as no one's and everyone's man.

What had promised to be the end of the transitional phase is nothing of the sort. The presidential elections are just one more step on the way. They are not going to mark the clear-cut break with the past and the dawning of a new future that the revolutionaries who thronged Tahrir Square in January and February last year had dreamt of. But by the same token, they have to acknowledge that they are getting an elected president, and the army is committed to withdrawing from political life: those are very real gains for the blood spilt by those young activists to topple the old regime.

For more news and expert analysis about Egypt, please see Egypt Politics & Security.

© 2012 Menas Associates

Egypt: Abdel Moneim Aboul Fotouh is the presidential candidate uniting different factions within the country

The presidential contest is not only between Amr Moussa and Abdel Moneim Aboul Fotouh. They might have had the first television debate but two others, the official candidate of the country's best organised political movement, the Muslim Brotherhood, Mohamed Morsi, and the former prime minister Ahmed Shafiq, are also serious contenders. Two are former ministers. Shafiq, in particularly, appeals to the desire to restore law and order. Moussa, in his television debate, sought to distance himself from the regime which he had served as foreign minister.

The strength of Aboul Fotouh is equally his weakness. He has been trying to appeal to all voters. He was originally a Salafist and has the endorsement of the Salafists. He became a Muslim Brother but fell out with them. He has the support of younger Muslim Brothers who do not care for their rigid and elderly leaders. And he has also reached out to Copts and others as a moderate voice.

His critics, however, argue that he is so bent on power that he will sell any of his principles. Of all the candidates, he is the major one nearest to being a candidate uniting all different factions within the country.

For more news and expert analysis about Egypt, please see Egypt Politics & Security.

© 2012 Menas Associates

Libya remains in a vicious spiral of confrontation

Libya remains caught in a vicious spiral of military and political confrontation which is defying resolution by the peace-makers. The most favoured candidates to settle the matter, when the two sides are ready to be brought together, are the Arab League and the AU. So far, the League has been muted. Its secretary general, Amr Moussa, who supported the UN Resolution 1973 for intervention in Libya, made a public stance against the continuance of the war in late June. He called for immediate talks to bring about a ceasefire, and suggested that a political solution was bound to be needed in the end.

Given that he is a strong potential Libyan presidential candidate his views have to be taken seriously. South Africa finds itself equally uncertain of a way forward but, like Moussa, takes the view that Colonel Mu'ammar Qadhafi should not necessarily be driven into exile. They are not enthusiastic about the Leader holding onto power, especially if it continues to obstruct an early political settlement.

The comparative ineffectiveness of the two armies in the last two months would lead to a conclusion that stalemate now prevails. The situation is, however, more complex than this because the revolutionary national army has become increasingly well-equipped following France's air lifting of new weapons for the Berber community which is resisting the drive from Zintan by Qadhafi's forces.

One of the rebels' basic problems is the capture of new territory at a high price of human life which would spell recurrent problems in the future and help to recruit groups in Tripolitania to Qadhafi's side. Whether the older heads in the TNC can keep control of the formations of young volunteer soldiers fighting at the fronts is unlikely. The latter on the battle fronts would not accept that Colonel Qadhafi, his family or henchmen remains in Libya. This single objective gives a unity to the insurrection against the Qadhafi clan which will not to be given up lightly.

For more news and expert analysis about Libya, please see Libya Focus and Libya Politics & Security.

© 2011 Menas Associates