Egypt: Who will gain most from the Mubarak verdict?

Former president Hosni Mubarak was convicted to life imprisonment for not preventing the killing of more than 800 citizens during the 18 days of protests, but who will gain most from the verdict? The disappointment of many at a verdict that seems once again not to have held to account anyone for the actual killing of more than 840 Egyptians may turn voters out of their armchairs to vote against Ahmed Shafiq for all that he stands for.

That said, his stirring of the fears that his rival would send the country back to the dark ages could equally appeal to those who feel most at risk of discrimination, especially the Christian community. He is appealing to the silent majority; Mohamed Morsi to those who shout out loud.

Egypt is at a critical point in its untidy transition. It still has no agreed constitution for whoever is elected. In the past, it was easy to say that he who was elected took power. So long as the army's intentions remain unclear - possibly even to itself - there is no saying how much power the president will enjoy.

The army has said that it will hand over to an elected president at the end of the month. It has said it will not interfere in the process by which Egyptians elect their new president.

To add to the uncertainty, the courts may disqualify Ahmed Shafiq. Then Egyptians would be faced with a familiar process: an election for president for which there is only one candidate. Not what the revolution was about.

For more news and expert analysis about Egypt, please see Egypt Politics & Security.

© 2012 Menas Associates

Mubarak's trial adjured until October

The judge hearing the appeal against the fines imposed on the former president Hosni Mubarak, his prime minister and his interior minister for cutting communications links in Egypt has adjourned the case until 3rd October. That should give him time to unearth who took part in the meeting that made the decision. Was defence minister and head of the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces ( SCAF ) Hussein Tantawi there? The army says he did not make the decision.

It does not really matter. The army was part of the old regime. It was its mainstay. When it saw that its position was under threat from the popular uprising, it sought to jettison the president so that it could remain unscathed. It was part of the old system. And it has played the pivotal role in shepherding in the new, as yet undetermined, system.

No one thinks that the army was blameless. The key will be what role it continues to play in future.

There is already great concern among liberal circles at the apparent closeness between the military and the Muslim Brotherhood. They certainly share common views on the need for an orderly transition, without introducing so-called supra-constitutional articles. What has not been established is the extent of any co-ordination between these two disciplined bodies.

For more news and expert analysis about Egypt, please see Egypt Politics & Security.

© 2011 Menas Associates

Egypt: Hosni Mubarak's trial is an extraordinary event

Hosni Mubarak's trial is an extraordinary event in the modern history of Egypt and the Arab world. There are no parallels or precedents of a deposed leader being tried by his own people in such a way. In a region where the rule of law has been so absent and those in authority are not held to account, this is a breathtaking development.

It is also uncertain. Many in the military must have considerable misgivings about what is happening to their former commander in chief. They must also be watching proceedings with a sense of foreboding about what might emerge in the course of the trial.

And many outside the chattering classes in Cairo will also view the public humiliation of their leader with considerable anger. For many in the rural heartlands, not only was Mubarak their leader but also their guarantor of a degree of stability that is now gone.

The trial of the former president is about coming to terms with Egypt's past, or some episodes from it. The demonstrations on 29th July were altogether different and were a sign, an ominous one in the view of many secularists and liberals, of the possible future character of the state.

The early protests that concluded with the removal of the former president were led by youth movements. But it is the Islamists who have the organisational strength and ideological unity — despite some differences — to make a serious challenge for power in the new Egypt.

For more news and expert analysis about Egypt, please see Egypt Politics & Security.

© 2011 Menas Associates