Preparations for parliamentary elections begin in Egypt

President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi issued a decree on Tuesday 15 July creating an electoral commission to oversee the upcoming parliamentary elections. This is in keeping with his statement last month indicating that the procedures for parliamentary elections, the first step of which is the appointment of an electoral commission, would take place before 18 July.

The commission will be formed of the head of the Court of Appeals and the eldest members of the Court of Cassation. Its formation indicates that we should expect to hear an announcement regarding the timing of elections in the next week or two. 

The vote is still expected to be held in mid to late-September, as the government is keen on completing a full transition to an elected government and it is very likely that several draft laws are being held up until a parliament is in place to approve them.

In a development that could have a significant impact on the shape of the next parliament, the Cairo Court of Appeals has overturned a ban placed on members of the now defunct National Democratic Party (NDP), which had been headed by former president Hosni Mubarak, from participating in political life. 

The new ruling means that any former NDP member of parliament may run again in the next election cycle (those convicted of crimes in the last three years will still be banned from running), and it is particularly significant given that the new parliamentary electoral law, which has been heavily criticised by the country’s political parties, heavily favours individual candidate districts.

Former members of parliament will now find it easier to run in the constituencies they had once held, as they will not be required to join a political party (most of whom have shunned former NDP members) to compete in individual districts. 

It should be noted that while previous bans failed to prevent many NDP members from running in the 2011 parliamentary elections, they performed poorly against Muslim Brotherhood candidates, who have been banned from taking part in political life.

For more news and expert analysis about Egypt, please see Egypt Politics & Security.

© 2014 Menas Associates

Libya pushes ahead with plan for parliamentary elections

Somewhat incredibly Libya is still pushing ahead with its plan to hold elections for a new parliament on 25 June. Despite the upheaval and chaos, some Libyans seem to believe that electing a new ruling body at this time will work as a sort of panacea and provide the country with the opportunity for a new start.

Even General Khalifa Haftar, who is battling it out against militants in the east, declared this week that he would halt all fighting for one day on 25 June so that the polls can go ahead.

Yet such optimism may well be misplaced. It is true that electing a new parliament will refresh the political scene. It is also likely to result in the Islamists losing some of their grip on power. This week the campaign poster of a Muslim Brotherhood candidate, Ali Bouzakok, was torn down by angry crowds in Benghazi.

While the Islamists will not disappear from the scene completely, it seems almost certain, given the ongoing hostility towards them, that they will not be able to dominate the parliament in the way they have been able to dominate the Congress.

However, with the country so polarised and with the central authorities still lacking in any real power or authority, it is difficult to see how these elections will really alter the status quo. Furthermore, some of the thornier issues, such as whether or not to elect a new President directly or indirectly, still have to be thrashed out, meaning that the potential for further deadlock is still a reality.

Added to all this the fact that the number of voters who have registered for these elections is still so low; it is difficult to see how this new parliament will have any real legitimacy.

For more news and expert analysis about Libya, please see Libya Focus and Libya Politics & Security.

© 2014 Menas Associates

Libya: Preliminary results of Constitution Committee elections

The preliminary results of the elections for the constitution committee, or Sixty Committee, which was established to draw up the country’s new constitution, were released this week. Although most of those elected are not well known, the initial results indicated that the liberal trend did well.

So far, only 47 out of the committee’s members have been declared because voting has yet to take place for the remaining 13 seats. Two of these seats remain empty because they were set aside for the country’s Amazigh (Berber) minority which boycotted the elections on the grounds that the Amazigh were under-represented in the committee and because they were given no guarantee that their rights would be protected in the new constitution. 

The other 11 seats remain unfilled because the elections to these posts could not go ahead on 20 February as a result of various security issues. Despite the fact that the Higher Election Commission announced that voting would take place for these seats six days later, similar disruptions and security violations occurred, meaning the re-runs did not go ahead.

In such circumstances it is difficult to see how this committee can start work. This means that the constitution writing process is likely to be delayed even further, suggesting that Congress’ Plan B for early elections will almost certainly have to be implemented, providing that the Congress itself lasts that long. 

Indeed, the head of the Higher Election Commission, Nouri Al-Abbar, who resigned this week (see below), informed the GNC that “in the best circumstances and even with the availability of logistical support, the earliest time that elections can be held is between 5 to 10 months”. Whether Libyans will agree to wait that long has yet to be seen.

For more news and expert analysis about Libya, please see Libya Focus and Libya Politics & Security.

© 2014 Menas Associates