Nigeria's President sounds out supporters for 2015 re-election bid

President Goodluck Jonathan won backing for a re-election bid from several People's Democratic Party (PDP) state governors and House of Representatives members at a meeting held at the Aso Rock presidential villa in Abuja in the week ending 19 July.

Insiders say Jonathan will officially declare his candidacy in late August, following the end of Ramadan and out of respect to Muslim members of the PDP. He also wants to pre-empt any rivals. His most likely opponent within the PDP for the nomination is Jigawa state’s governor Sule Lamido who has the backing of former president Olusegun Obasanjo (1999–2007).

Lamido, a quietly spoken former foreign minister, is scarcely more charismatic than Jonathan but the PDP’s northern caucus would find him more acceptable. If he mounts a serious campaign, with strong backing from PDP governors in the north, he could really damage Jonathan. This, however, requires courage and money and no one is certain about Lamido’s reserves of either commodity.

Despite this Jonathan may need to offer him a very important job if he is to be persuaded to cease and desist.

For more news and expert analysis about Nigeria or East Africa, please see Nigeria Focus and Nigeria Politics & Security.

© 2014 Menas Associates

Nigeria: Spin doctors to the rescue

Nigeria is facing pressing problems so the government has taken decisive action: it signed a $1.2 million contract with an American public-relations company to manage the country's image.

 

The news of the contract came on the heels of an emotive and sorrowful op-ed that President Goodluck Jonathan published last week in the Washington Post, in which he attempted to rehabilitate his reputation and counter the impression that he was unconcerned about the fate of the more than 200 schoolgirls kidnapped from their school in Chibok in April.

 

"My silence has been necessary to avoid compromising the details of our investigation," the president wrote, though it was not clear how a refusal to meet with the grieving parents would endanger the recovery mission.

 

The letter, in retrospect, looked like the first salvo fired from the PR arsenal of Levick, the Washington-based lobbying firm contracted to help out the Abuja government. The company is going to try to shape the "media narrative" over the government's recovery effort. It is also tasked with mobilising international support of the fight against Boko Haram.

With the elections fast approaching in February 2015, critics accused Jonathan of running to the Washington spin-doctors to spruce up his image ahead of the still-yet-to-be-declared re-election campaign.

 

For its efforts, Levick will earn $75,000 a month plus (likely to be considerable) expenses for travel and media production, according to The Hill.

 

For more news and expert analysis about Nigeria or East Africa, please see Nigeria Focus and Nigeria Politics & Security.

© 2014 Menas Associates

Nigeria: Sanusi suspension becomes test of will for Jonathan

Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) governor Sanusi Lamido Sanusi is challenging his suspension by President Goodluck Jonathan in the courts, and the case is becoming an overwhelmingly political clash as accusations are traded publicly.

Sanusi submitted a 36-point memorandum to Jonathan on 17 March which containing detailed rebuttals of the allegations against him contained in a Financial Reporting Council of Nigeria briefing note.

Jonathan’s February suspension of Sanusi was preceded by earlier attempts to get the governor to resign before the June 2014 end of his term. Initially, Sanusi said that he would not seek reinstatement to his post but would test the constitutional legitimacy of the suspension in court to establish a legal principle.

Having been sent a list of infractions at the bank under his management, Sanusi has analysed them and seems to have changed his strategy. He is now publicly asking Jonathan to reinstate him for the remaining three months of his tenure.

A long political and legal battle looms but it is certain that Jonathan will use every tactic to ensure that Sanusi does not get access to the governor’s office before his tenure formally ends. 

The trend of claims and counter-claims in the dispute suggests that there will not be an independent and credible effort to investigate the basis of Sanusi’s concerns about the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation, which has been unable to account for failing to transfer some US$49.8 billion in revenues from January 2012 to July 2013 to the CBN accounts.

Acknowledging that he lacks the constitutional power to remove Sanusi from office, Jonathan says the governor is free to return to office once he disproves the ‘acts of financial recklessness’ allegations against him. These supposedly arose from recently received audits of CBN accounts.

Sanusi’s quick response to Jonathan’s allegations was to allege that there was a conspiracy supported by bank chiefs who are unhappy that they would have to open their books to independent auditors so that the missing billions can be tracked.

This view, relating to the role of Nigeria’s banks as likely intermediaries in corrupt flows of funds, has been voiced by Sanusi and other financial experts. Prior to his appointment as CBN governor, Sanusi was chief executive of First Bank Nigeria, through which billions of state oil earnings are transferred between state agencies and other institutions.

Sanusi will meet Justice Gabriel Kolawole later this week when he attends a rescheduled hearing on the case. 

For more news and expert analysis about Nigeria, please see Nigeria Focus and Nigeria Politics & Security.

© 2014 Menas Associates

US human rights report criticises both Boko Haram and Nigerian military

Neither the Boko Haram insurgency nor the government itself escaped lightly in the new Country Report on Human Rights practices for 2013 just published by the United States State Department's Bureau of Democracy, Human Rights and Labour. 

Boko Haram - "which conducted killings, bombings, abduction and rape of women, and other attacks throughout the country, resulting in numerous deaths, injuries, and widespread destruction of property" - came in for first criticism. But the report gave over plenty of column inches for the security services, "which perpetrated extrajudicial killings, torture, rape, beatings, arbitrary detention, mistreatment of detainees, and destruction of property." 

President Goodluck Jonathan's pardon of former Bayelsa State governor, Diepreye Alamieyeseigha, who was convicted of money laundering in 2007, did not escape the attention of the report's authors. Indeed, the report was harshly critical of the small number of prosecutions against police abuse and official corruption. "Impunity remained widespread at all levels of government." The report also condemned the practice of "parading" arrestees: "Bystanders often hurled taunts, food, and other objects. Police defended this practice with the argument that public humiliation helped deter crime." 

It is a common practice. In the past week, reports appeared in the media of the parading of 13 suspected members of the "Supreme Eiye Confraternity", arrested in Lagos. In Cross Rivers State the commander of the NNS Victory arrested and paraded a dozen people who were allegedly transporting contraband worth millions of naira. While the arrests might win plaudits for the authorities, it looks like a clear violation of due process for the arrested persons whose names and photos appear in the media before they have come to trial. 

On a more positive note, the State Department researchers found that there were few reports of the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC) being used to harass political opponents of the ruling party. "Existing allegations tended to rise and fall with election cycles," the report dryly noted, leaving open the possibility that new accusations will appear as the 2015 elections approach. 

Other events were too recent to appear in the report. It said that "on 17 December a harmonized version of the 'Same Sex Marriage (Prohibition) Bill' passed the Senate." That bill, signed into law by President Jonathan in January 2014, triggered fresh round-ups of gays and lesbians and provoked international condemnation. It will be sure to feature more prominently in the 2014 report.

For more news and expert analysis about Nigeria, please see Nigeria Focus and Nigeria Politics & Security.

© 2014 Menas Associates

President is criticised for his Independence Day speech

Nigeria “celebrated” the 52 nd Independence Day anniversary on 1 October. For the second consecutive year, the celebrations were low-key across the country and even more so in Abuja. President Goodluck Jonathan has received widespread criticism for his 18-minute Independence Day broadcast which has been described as lacklustre, inaccurate and defeatist.

His declaration of the commencement of a year-long national prayer campaign has been slated because, as far as most Nigerians are concerned, it could be construed to mean that the presidency had run out of ideas and was literally “living on a prayer” in charting the affairs of the country and in resolving the myriad problems of insecurity, corruption and lack of infrastructure provision that continue to impact negatively on Nigeria's economic development.

Attempting to highlight his administration's achievements in the fight against corruption Jonathan erroneously stated that Transparency International (TI) had scored his administration high and Nigeria as “improving”. This was almost immediately refuted by TI which said: “Transparency International does not have a recent rating or report that places Nigeria as the second most improved country in the fight against corruption.”

Meanwhile, sources have revealed that the president is unhappy with the remarks made by Senate president, David Mark, during the special Independence Day session of the Senate held on Tuesday 2 October.

Remarking on the state of the nation at 52, Mark said: “We have made some considerable achievements. For that alone, we need to show gratitude to God, pray and work. Not just pray alone. Praying alone will not solve the problem and we need to combine both of them. I think more than anything else, we just need political will to take our policies to logical conclusions whether it is at the executive level or the legislative level.”

Some observers believe that Mark's reference to prayer being insufficient was a veiled response to the President's call for a year-long national prayer campaign. According to sources, Jonathan reached the same conclusion, and is therefore unhappy with Senator David Mark. Jonathan apparently felt that Mark's statement constituted a betrayal because he had always considered Mark to be one of his administration's firm allies.

For more news and expert analysis about Nigeria, please see Nigeria Focus and Nigeria Politics & Security.

© 2012 Menas Associates

Nigeria: James Ibori seeks PR firm to help launder his image

Sources have revealed that convicted former Governor of Delta State, James Ibori, who is serving a jail term in the United Kingdom for money laundering and fraud convictions has been trying to engage the services of UK public relations firms. Apparently he is seeking the services of a PR firm to help him launder his image in preparation for his release from jail and his eventual return to Nigeria.

Ibori apparently intends to continue in Nigerian politics after his prison stint. Sources have also revealed that, so far, most of the major PR firms contacted by Ibori's people have turned down the offer to work for Ibori. It would appear that Ibori is hoping to take a leaf from the book of former Bayelsa State Governor, Diepreye Alamieyesiegha, who was infamously arrested in the UK on money laundering charges but escaped, dressed as a woman and effectively evading trial.

Following his disgrace Alamieyesiegha was replaced as governor by Goodluck Jonathan who was then the deputy governor. Despite being perceived as something of a political pariah his people held a “welcome parade” for him which was severely criticised by pundits. Alamieyesiegha has, however, now made a successful return to political circles.

Ibori's family and associates in Nigeria recently planned a “grand celebration” in honour of his 54th birthday party and this was widely advertised in national dailies. This celebration, which was criticised as ill-advised by observers and political pundits had been scheduled for Saturday 4 August but it has now been cancelled. The cancellation announcement was made by the secretary of the James Ibori Political Associates, Jaro Egbo, which was organising the celebration. Egbo cited circumstances beyond their control - the death of Ibori's brother - as the reason for the cancellation.

For more news and expert analysis about Nigeria, please see Nigeria Focus and Nigeria Politics & Security.

© 2012 Menas Associates

UN-backed Cameroon-Nigeria border commission seeks swift resolution

The UN-backed Cameroon-Nigeria Mixed Commission, set up to help Cameroon and Nigeria resolve their border disputes has called for “swift agreement” to resolve the remaining border disputes.

The Commission was set up at the request of the West African neighbours after the 2002 International Court of Justice (ICJ) decision on the ownership of the Bakassi Peninsula, in order to help implement the decision.

It has already reached agreement on more than 1,600 km of the border, however it is still working on the final 350 kilometres of the land border which needs to be demarcated.

The most recent meeting of the Commission, which took place for two days in Abuja last week, had planned to reach an agreement on the remaining 350 kilometres, however it was not successful.

The Commission instruct its sub-commission on demarcation to find "effective and practical solutions" on the remaining areas, which include previous skipped areas, areas of disagreement, and inaccessible areas.

In a press release at the end of the meeting on Friday 22nd July, Cameroon and Nigeria reiterated their commitment to complete the demarcation by the end of next year.

The commission, chaired by the UN Secretary General's Special Representative for West Africa Said Djinnit also noted the progress made by the two nations regarding the confidence-building initiatives for the populations affected by the demarcation.

A draft agreement was reached at the meeting however, on other issues such as the exploitation of hydrocarbons on the border of Nigeria and Cameroon.

Nigeria's President Goodluck Jonathan said on Tuesday 26th July that he would form a committee to consider the draft agreement for ratification, after which the document would be signed by the leaders of both countries.

Jonathan also said it was critical for the two countries to work together to ensure security along the border.

The next session of the commission will be held in Yaoundé, Cameroon, on 8-9th December.

Sources: Punch, The Nation, UN News Centre

For more news and expert analysis about Nigeria, please see Nigeria Focus and Nigeria Politics & Security.

Abuja sets curfew to discourage Boko Harm

Following recent attacks on government buildings by the Islamist militant group Boko Haram a curfew has been imposed on Nigeria's capital city of Abuja. Under the curfew all public venues such as bars, clubs and cinemas will be shut by 22:00 local time (21:00 GMT).

Speaking about the decision, Abuja's administration spokesman said: "These measures are necessitated by the need to ensure adequate security of lives and property in the federal capital territory [in light of] the prevailing security concerns."

Boko Haram's activates have become more frequent in the last couple of months; just two weeks ago eight people were killed when the group attacked police headquarters in Abuja. On Sunday 26th June, a bomb attack on a beer garden in Maiduguri killed 25 and later another 10 people when a car bomb exploded in the city centre.

The group voiced disapproval back in May about the way Nigeria is being run and staged attacks at President Goodluck Jonathan's inauguration ceremony. Boko Haram has also taken responsibility for several other explosions in Abuja, and other States. In a statement, about the police HQ attack, the group said: “We are responsible for the bomb attack on the police headquarters in Abuja which was to prove a point to all those who doubt our capability.”

Boko haram has killed dozens of people across the country but mainly in Maiduguri, the capital of Borno state, where the group is based.

Sources: BBC News, The African Report, Reuters

For more news and expert analysis about Nigeria, please see Nigeria Focus and Nigeria Politics & Security.

President Jonathan approves 2011 budget

The 2011 budget has finally received President Goodluck Jonathan's assent and that he signed it in Lagos State on Monday 22nd May.

He had accused the House of Representatives of padding the budget and stated that he did not trust the House to pass the amendments that he made to the budget. He therefore only reluctantly signed the budget after having made several deductions especially from the budget of the National Assembly, in order to end the six-month long impasse.

The budget has now been passed back to the National Assembly as an Act so that the presidential amendments can be effected.

The total cost of the 2011 budget is N4,407,052,300,582 (US$28.142 billion. Of this amount:

N387,824,288,743 (US$2.467 billion) is for Statutory Transfers
N495,096,682,115 (US$3.162 billion) is for Debt Service
N2,401,330,677,943 (US$15.34 billion) is for Recurrent
Expenditure; and N1,122,800,651,781 (US$7.170 billion) is for Capital Expenditure.
The unpopular Minister of Petroleum Resources, Dieziani Alison-Madueke, is desperately lobbying to be retained in her portfolio in the president's new cabinet. As part of her lobbying effort she recently sponsored a paid advertisement in national dailies purported to be from a national women's group, praising her achievements as the first female minister in the influential and highly lucrative Ministry of Petroleum Resources.

Insiders and many oil industry insiders are opposed to her because they are fed up with having to silently suffer through what they believe is her unprofessional and demanding approach. She is famed for throwing tantrums and exploiting her personal relationship with Jonathan to her advantage. She has been embroiled in several “cash for approval” scandals.

For more news and expert analysis about Nigeria, please see Nigeria Focus and Nigeria Politics & Security.

© 2011 Menas Associates

The 2011 general elections in Nigeria finally concluded

The 2011 general elections in Nigeria have finally been concluded with the last round of elections – the gubernatorial elections, the elections into the state houses of assembly and National Assembly elections which had been postponed in certain districts - conducted on the 26th April for most States and on the 28th April for Bauchi and Kaduna states.

The latter were further postponed following the devastating riots that greeted the announcement that President Goodluck Jonathan of the ruling Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) had been re-elected president ahead of his closest rival, Gen Muhammadu Buhari of the opposition Congress for Progressive Change (CPC).

The gubernatorial elections saw the PDP overwhelming losing what had become its tenuous grip on Nigeria's predominantly Yoruba south-west to the Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN), which firmly cemented its position as the region's dominant political party.

As some reports put it the PDP lost to the “rascals” – which was an allusion to Jonathan's alleged comment during one of his south-west campaign rallies when he referred to ACN as rascals. He had said that the electorate should not allow the region to fall into the hands of “rascals” which, by that time, had already gained ground and controlled three of the six states in the region. This was, however, mainly through court decisions which declared gubernatorial victories for the ACN's Rauf Aregbesola and Kayode Fayemi in Osun and Ekiti States, respectively.

For more news and expert analysis about Nigeria, please see Nigeria Focus and Nigeria Politics & Security.

© 2011 Menas Associates

NNPC negotiating Brass Liquefied Natural Gas project with international partners

There are reports that Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation (NNPC) is currently in negotiation with LNG Japan and Itochu Corporation and the US-based Sempra Energy, to jointly acquire 9 per cent of NNPC's stake in the Brass Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) project. Negotiations are said to have reached an advanced stage and will soon be concluded. NNPC currently has a 49 per cent stake in the potentially hugely lucrative project, whilst ConocoPhillips, Eni and Total each hold 17 per cent stakes in the project which is located in Bayelsa State.

As part of the Federal Government's Niger Delta post amnesty policy the NNPC will cede 10 per cent of its stake in the Brass LNG project to Rivers and Bayelsa States, under the scheme to allow host States to own stakes in such projects. This means that if the current negotiations are indeed successful the NNPC will only hold a 30 percent stake in Brass LNG after ceding 9 per cent to the consortium and 10 percent to the Bayelsa and Rivers State Governments.

Long fuel queues have suddenly returned to most of Nigeria's major cities. On Friday 18th March residents in Abuja and Lagos State awoke to the reality of fuel scarcity and the resultant queues.

The NNPC has not yet made any statement on the reasons for this recent fuel scarcity. Some observers believe that, unless the fuel scarcities are quickly resolved, it could definitely have an adverse effect on President Goodluck Jonathan's popularity in the presidential polls which is now less than a month away.

For more news and expert analysis about Nigeria, please see Nigeria Focus and Nigeria Politics & Security.

© 2011 Menas Associates

Nigeria: New Generation's Nitel bid approved

Goodluck Jonathan has finally given his stamp of approval to the $2.5 billion bid by the New Generation Telecommunications Consortium for moribund state-owned Nigerian Telecommunications ompany (NITEL) and its mobile arm, M-Tel.

The president's approval is pursuant to the recommendation of the National Council on Privatisation (NCP), following the outcome of its investigations into the auction for NITEL in February this year due to controversies over the emergence of New Generation as the preferred bidder.

The president's approval includes a proviso, in line with the provisions of the bid's RFP, that the consortium (whose financial partner is Dubai-based Minerva Group) must pay a bid security of $750 million as a pre-condition for the issuance of an offer letter. The balance of $1.75 million must be paid within 60 days from the issuance of the letter.

The reserve bidder for the auction remains Omen International, with a bid price of $956,996,091.

For more news and expert analysis about Nigeria, please see Nigeria Focus and Nigeria Politics & Security.

© 2010 Menas Associates

Shell waits out Nigeria energy sector reforms

Royal Dutch Shell has around $40 billion worth of investments in several deepwater oil projects in Nigeria put on hold due to uncertainty over planned reforms to the energy sector. The company is reluctant to make any commitments without clarity over the terms of the Petroleum Industry Bill (PIB) legislation which will affect the fiscal and regulatory framework in the OPEC member.

"Just looking at deep-water alone, we have a portfolio of about $40 billion worth of projects...but we will not be able to make a move on these until we have a landing on the PIB," said, Country chairman for Shell Nigeria, Mutiu Sunmonu.

The PIB is expected to make state oil firm NNPC more competitive and transparent. It is also expected to promote local oil company involvement in the industry, increase gas supplies to the dilapidated domestic power sector and encourage investment. However, international oil companies are fearful that the bill will impose higher taxes and royalties while overlooking other issues such as under-funding, corruption and security.

The bill, which has already been delayed by revisions and disagreements, has stalled once more as President Goodluck Jonathan and new Oil Minister Diezani Allison-Madueke revisit some of the issues.

Although the new administration has little time to push the bill through, with elections due by next April at the latest, Sunmonu said he was convinced that the differences can be overcome. He had also mentioned to the oil ministry the need to renew onshore licences which had lapsed under the previous administration, and was assured that the government intends to "dispose of all these legacy issues as quickly as possible."

Source: Reuters

For more news and expert analysis about Nigeria please see Nigeria Focus and Nigeria Politics & Security.