Elections hold key to elusive Mozambique peace deal

Aside from Mozambique’s upcoming October elections, both the government and the Mozambican National Resistance (Renamo) have announced that they have made significant progresses in peace talks and are close to reaching a deal. Government spokesman, Gabriel Muthisse said both sides have made concessions on the main points of disagreements.

Negotiators have been pursuing common grounds on issues including the integration of Renamo men in the army and the withdrawal of the army's soldiers near Gorongosa. One of four Renamo spokesmen, Saimone Macuiana, who leads the Renamo delegation in talks with the government, had said that they will soon be able to publish the terms of reference for international observers who will oversee disarmament and a ceasefire.

Bishop Dinis Sengulane, one of the mediators of the talks and who was in London last week, has told Mozambique Politics & Security that this should happen on time to allow RENAMO leader, Afonso Dhlakama, to campaign for elections. He has also hinted that some of the outstanding issues may have to wait until after the elections.

Sources say that Dhlakama is expected to return to Maputo to launch his presidential campaign sometime in August. As for a possible meeting between Dhlakama and President Guebuza, the Renamo leader says that the detention of his spokesman Antonio Muchanga has made him reconsider that possibility. According to him, Guebuza has invited him to Maputo to arrest or assassinate him.

For more news and expert analysis about Mozambique, please see Mozambique Politics & Security.

© 2014 Menas Associates

More alleged Renamo attacks and civilian deaths in Mozambique

There have been more alleged Renamo attacks in Sofala Province near Muxungue, with one taking place on 25 June, Mozambique’s Independence Day. Media reports suggest that during the week of 23-28 June, at least 12 people were killed, including four civilians, and many others were injured.

The army-protected convoys have now been reduced, adversely disrupting trade between the centre and south of the country. Lorry drivers travelling from Zimbabwe, Zambia and Malawi to the regional port of Beira have also been affected.

There have also been reports of minor attacks and exchanges of gunfire in other regions of the country. In Tete Province, for example, the local media reported that Renamo had attacked a police post in Chiuta and stole weapons. There were other cases of armed attacks in the province but it is believed that these could be the work of local criminals taking advantage of the current security instability.

There were reports of an exchange of gunfire between Renamo men and government soldiers in Zambezia Province when the army tried to dismantle a temporary Renamo base near Gurue District. Some of these attacks took place just before and during the Renamo meeting in Beira, and Renamo's leader Afonso Dhlakama has been asked by his supporters to explain why civilians were targeted. His response was that "the government is using civilian cars to transport weapons by road".

Dhlakama’s position has also been corroborated by a local priest, Jose Luiz Gonzalez, who has been working for the past six years on a local project run by US-based Catholic missionaries. He told reporters that Renamo does not attack civilians and that when there are civilian victims, it is because there are soldiers in the civilian convoys. The priest also stressed that in his area of Muxungue the local people do not agree with Renamo’s plan to divide the country and also do not support the violence.

For more news and expert analysis about Mozambique, please see Mozambique Politics & Security.

© 2014 Menas Associates

Mozambique: Renamo's National Council meets without Dhlakama

As expected, Renamo’s National Council is meeting this week in the central city of Beira. The agenda is primarily to discuss their electoral manifesto for October's general elections. For the first time in Renamo history, party leader Afonso Dhlakama will be absent. The party spokesman has said, however, that Dhlakama will launch his presidential election campaign by telephone from his Gorongosa mountain hideout.

Dhlakama’s absence is important because the meeting will also see the election of representatives as prospective MPs, and also appoint the party’s presidential candidate. There is no doubt that Dhlakama will be proclaimed as Renamo’s presidential candidate but the party is still very behind Frelimo and MDM.

Renamo has not officially registered a candidate for October’s elections, and its members are yet to collect the supporting signatures that Dhlakama will need for his presidential bid. The question many are asking at this stage is whether Renamo will manage - in just three months - to assemble an effective electoral arsenal to win enough seats in parliament, or whether will it opt to continue to rely on bullets instead of the ballot to change Mozambique's political system.

For more news and expert analysis about Mozambique, please see Mozambique Politics & Security.

© 2014 Menas Associates