Libya's 2014 Budget is finally passed

On 22 June the long awaited 2014 Budget originally submitted to the Congress in January by the then Prime Minister, Ali Zidan, was passed. This came as a surprise to some Congress members who had expected to debate the issue in a session on the 22 June. Having waited almost all day for there to be enough members present to reach 94 - the required number of members present to be able to hold an official consultative session - the Congress was told that the budget had been passed on a technicality.

As Libya Politics & Security – 16.06.14 explained, the Al-Thanni government declared last week that the Congress had 120 days from the budget’s initial submission to debate the law, after which time the government had the right to issue a financial mandate to ratify it. Al-Thanni therefore scored a bit of a coup by getting the law passed in this way, despite the fact that certain Congress members were keen for the budget to be reduced. 

The Central Bank may, however, still object to the budget being passed in this fashion, although it is not clear whether it has a legal right to do so. The budget stands at LD56.5 billion (US$45 billion). Given the crisis in revenues caused by the disruptions at the oil ports, a significant portion of this money is expected to come from a reserve fund at the Central Bank that was set up by Colonel Qadhafi as a fund for future generations. Whether the Central Bank will agree to this fund being used also remains open to question. 

It is clear, however, that Libya cannot fund itself from oil revenues alone. The budget committee in the Congress based the 2014 budget on a projected annual oil production of 600,000 b/d but the country has clearly fallen woefully short of this. Thus drawing on this LD16 billion fund, plus some of the central bank’s foreign reserves, therefore seems to be the only solution.

For more news and expert analysis about Libya, please see Libya Focus and Libya Politics & Security.

© 2014 Menas Associates

Saadi Qadhafi extradited to Libya

Saadi Qadhafi, the third son of Libya’s deposed dictator Muammar Qadhafi, was extradited early today from neighbouring Niger back to Libya. According to a statement posted on the government’s official Facebook page, Saadi is currently being held in the high-security Hadaba Prison in Tripoli.

"The Libyan Government thanks the President of the Republic of Niger, Mahamadou Issoufou, we also thank the Niger Government and the people of Niger for their cooperation with the Libyan Government in pledging its commitment to the treatment of the accused on the principles of justice and international norms in dealing with prisoners. God save Libya.”

Unofficial pictures were also released by the government-backed militia holding the businessman and former professional footballer, allegedly showing Saadi dressed in a blue prison uniform having his head shaved. There is a high likelihood that he will face the death penalty.

Libya has been seeking his extradition since he fled to Niger in the wake of the 2011 NATO-backed uprising that ousted his father. Niamey had previously refused to hand over Saadi around the time of the first anniversary of the February uprising because they feared he would be executed if he returned to Libya. A government spokesperson for the Nigerien authorities, Marou Amadou, said that it would only extradite Saadi “to a government which has an independent and impartial justice system”.

Following this request from Tripoli, Niger’s President Mahamadou Issoufou said any extradition requests would be viewed on strict legal merits alone, without referring specifically to the Saadi case. He had originally been granted asylum in November 2011 on humanitarian grounds, shortly after Interpol issued a warrant for his arrest in connection with allegations of forcefully misappropriated property and armed intimidation when he was head of the Libyan Football Federation. As a member of the ICC, Niger was obliged to extradite Qadhafi.

Saadi’s extradition is a real coup for the Libyan authorities. He was one of the most hated figures in the Qadhafi regime and arguably the most disliked of all Qadhafi’s sons. He had a reputation for being exceptionally brutal and is remembered in Benghazi particularly for his bulldozing of the Al-Ahli SC (Benghazi) stadium in an act of revenge after his football team, Al-Ahli SC (Tripoli), lost to the opposing side.

There is likely to be ongoing jubilation in Libya at the news. Congress is congratulating the families of the martyrs and the revolutionaries and is thanking Niger. This will serve as a reminder to a deeply troubled country of why they launched the uprising in the first place. 

For more news and expert analysis about Libya, please see Libya Focus and Libya Politics & Security.

© 2014 Menas Associates

Libya: Preliminary results of Constitution Committee elections

The preliminary results of the elections for the constitution committee, or Sixty Committee, which was established to draw up the country’s new constitution, were released this week. Although most of those elected are not well known, the initial results indicated that the liberal trend did well.

So far, only 47 out of the committee’s members have been declared because voting has yet to take place for the remaining 13 seats. Two of these seats remain empty because they were set aside for the country’s Amazigh (Berber) minority which boycotted the elections on the grounds that the Amazigh were under-represented in the committee and because they were given no guarantee that their rights would be protected in the new constitution. 

The other 11 seats remain unfilled because the elections to these posts could not go ahead on 20 February as a result of various security issues. Despite the fact that the Higher Election Commission announced that voting would take place for these seats six days later, similar disruptions and security violations occurred, meaning the re-runs did not go ahead.

In such circumstances it is difficult to see how this committee can start work. This means that the constitution writing process is likely to be delayed even further, suggesting that Congress’ Plan B for early elections will almost certainly have to be implemented, providing that the Congress itself lasts that long. 

Indeed, the head of the Higher Election Commission, Nouri Al-Abbar, who resigned this week (see below), informed the GNC that “in the best circumstances and even with the availability of logistical support, the earliest time that elections can be held is between 5 to 10 months”. Whether Libyans will agree to wait that long has yet to be seen.

For more news and expert analysis about Libya, please see Libya Focus and Libya Politics & Security.

© 2014 Menas Associates

Libya: The JCP responds

 

On 12 October, referring to Ali Zidan's kidnapping, Justice and Construction Party (JCP) head Mohamed Sawan declared that the government had failed and that the Zidan's mismanagement may have led to 'irresponsible behaviour by some people.'

 

This was hardly a forthright condemnation of the affair. Sawan also insisted that Congress was 'seriously searching for an alternative' to Zidan, though other Congress members have denied doing so. The JCP head did make it clear, however, that Zidan had told JCP Congress members that he was not referring to them in his accusation, remarking, 'I wish he had named the political party behind his kidnap.'

 

Several JCP members accused Zidan of having staged the incident himself in order to detract attention from his failings. Amina Mahjoub, JCP Congress member from Surman, described the abduction as 'like a play that Zidan himself had orchestrated.'

 

The head of the Libyan Muslim Brotherhood, Bashir Al-Kebti, all but accused Zidan of inventing the whole thing, telling a German press agency, 'There are suspicions that it may have been a piece of theatre to gain support and to cover up his failure to run the state.' Thus the JCP and the Brotherhood used his abduction as simply another chance to attack and weaken the prime minister.

 

For more news and expert analysis about Libya, please see Libya Focus and Libya Politics & Security.

 

© 2013 Menas Associates

Libya: Government still incomplete

Ali Zidan is still struggling to get his government up to full capacity. There is no indication yet that he has found replacements for those ministers who were ruled unfit for office by the Integrity Commission. The new premier may well be waiting for the appeals process to end before making any moves in this direction but this could take some time.

 

Zidan has also yet to nominate anyone to take over the post of Minister for Martyrs and the Missing. His first nominee, Sami Saeidi, resigned earlier in the month on the grounds that the government contained too many members with links to the former regime. This is an important portfolio for the Libyans, and the ongoing absence of a minister is likely to aggravate the frustration already felt by the thousands of families at the state's slowness in offering them proper compensation.

 

The Integrity Commission also still has to issue its ruling on Abdulsalam Mohammed Abusaad, Zidan's nominee for Awqaf Minister. Last week, the Commission complained that it still had not received Abusaad's file.

 

The longer the process of forming a government drags on, the more difficult it becomes for the Prime Minister to convince the Libyans that he has a credible cabinet that has what it takes to take charge and to change things on the ground. The government is rapidly coming to resemble a body that is being pushed around by the stronger forces that surround it, from the Integrity Commission, to the revolutionaries, to the General National Congress (GNC).

 

For more news and expert analysis about Libya, please see Libya Focus and Libya Politics & Security.

© 2012 Menas Associates