Egypt: Muslim Brotherhood challenges the military

Critics of the Muslim Brotherhood say it has brought this mess over its candidate upon its own head. Its call for the current interim government to step down was a direct challenge to the military. It ended what appeared to be an agreement with the military. The Brotherhood would not demonstrate or rock the boat until after the handover of power. It agreed the timetable for elections for president, though with different aspirations. But when it decided to field its own candidate, and stuffed the constituent assembly with its own handpicked members and sympathisers, it was accused of overreaching itself and seeking to dominate political life like the former ruling party: the National Democratic Party (NDP) with beards.

Whatever happens in the presidential elections, the new president will have two enormous issues to deal with. The first is political. He will have to drive a path between a parliament dominated by the Islamists - the Freedom and Justice Party (FJP) and al-Nour - and the military, which, though it has promised to withdraw from day to day running of the country, will still remain the final arbiter of political life.

The second main challenge will be the economy. The state finances are a mess. Foreign currency earnings have not picked up; tourists are put off by continuing instability. The government's response is to spend rather than to rein in spending. Whoever comes to power will be forced to impose very difficult austerity measures.

For more news and expert analysis about Egypt, please see Egypt Politics & Security.

© 2012 Menas Associates

Egypt: New National Party will be headed by Talaat El Sadat

It was announced on 13th April that the former ruling National Democratic Party is being recreated as the New National Party. It will be headed by Talaat El Sadat, who had been critical of the policies of the old party.

The cabinet has approved an electronic voting system for Egyptians living abroad. Egypt has nominated Mustafa El Fiki as its candidate to succeed Amr Mousa as the next secretary general of the Arab League. The choice has provoked derision. El Fiki had been appointed by former president Hosni Mubarak as the head of the now dissolved Shura Council's foreign relations committee. He was also beneficiary of one of the most blatant and outrageous pieces of electoral chicanery. In the 2005 election, he was soundly beaten by the Muslim Brotherhood candidate Gamal Hishmat in the Damanhur constituency. The electoral officers, however, merely switched the result so that El Fiki got Hishmat's votes and vice versa. The switch was exposed by an electoral monitor Noha El Zeini but this did not deter El Fiki from taking his seat.

The military government has said it will remove some provincial governors appointed by Mubarak. Most of these were either former senior police or army officers.

For more news and expert analysis about Egypt, please see Egypt Politics & Security.

© 2011 Menas Associates

Egypt in turmoil

President Hosni Mubarak has dashed hopes and confounded dashed hopes and confounded expectations by using a televised address on State television last night to declare he would not budge. In effect, he said he was stepping aside, not down by handing over some unspecified powers to his newly appointed vice president and intelligence chief Omar Suleiman.

The move, or rather lack of one, came at the end of an extraordinary few hours. They began with the issuing of Communiqué Number One from the military command council. The communiqué itself was bland and uninformative:

“The Higher Army Council held a meeting today under Hussein Tantawi the head of the armed forces and minister of defence to discuss the necessary measures and preparations to protect the nation, its gains and the aspirations of the people. The council decided to remain in continuous session to discuss measures that can be taken in this regard.”

Historians of the Arab world, however, will recognise that the first intimation of a coup traditionally is the seizure of the radio station and the broadcast of a communiqué by a group of sometimes unknown army officers.

The army communiqué was followed by statements from the new secretary general of the ruling National Democratic Party Hossam Badrawi and the prime minister, Ahmed Shafiq, that President Mubarak was going.

The president's decision not to go but to soldier on until elections in September raises questions about the role of the army. There is no disputing that the protestors in Tahrir square feel deeply insulted by the patronising tone adopted by the incumbent president. Essentially, each side is now appealing to the armed forces to forgo its neutrality and take sides in this constitutional impasse. But it is yet unclear whether it will.

The army has now issued a Communiqué Number Two which "confirms the lifting of the state of emergency as soon as the current circumstances end," a pledge that would eradicate a 30-year law that protesters say is used to suppress dissent.

In an interview publicised shortly before the second communiqué, Egypt's leading opposition figure Mohamed El Baradei said the army "has to side with the people".

Speaking about the prospect of some of Mubarak's powers being transferred to Suleiman, El Baradei noted: “The people on the street feel the same way about Suleiman as they feel about Mubarak. He is to them only a mirror image of Mubarak."

We will, of course, keep you informed of any significant developments.

For more news and expert analysis about Egypt, please see Egypt Politics & Security.

© 2010 Menas Associates

Mohamed ElBaradei urges Egypt to boycott election

Former chief of the International Atomic Energy Agency, Mohamed ElBaradei, has urged Egyptians to boycott November's parliamentary election, saying it is certain to be rigged by the government. ElBaradei explained that taking part in the election would go against "the national will" to transform Egypt into a democracy.

ElBaradei has not yet said whether he will run for president in 2011. And it is still unclear who will succeed President Mubarak, nor whether Mubarak will seek re-election, but speculation has been mounting and many believe that he will try to install his son, Gamal, in the role if he decides to retire.

Shorty after his return to Egypt, in February, ElBaradei's National Coalition for Change launched a petition calling for constitutional changes and guarantees of free elections. The petition lists seven demands including allowing independents to run for president, and the lifting of the emergency laws that have been in place since 1981.

"We have gathered nearly a million signatures in six months and we can reach up to two to three million more by the end of this year," said ElBaradei on Monday.

In talking about the government ElBaradei said that the ruling National Democratic Party (NDP) has failed Egypt, and is responsible for rising poverty and illiteracy, and the disregard of human rights.

"When I look at the temple they built, I see a decaying temple, nearly collapsing. It will fall sooner rather than later. I will never enter this temple. What we call for is to bring down this temple in a peaceful civilised manner. If the whole population boycotts the elections totally, it will be in my view the end of the regime," concluded ElBaradei.

Source: BBC News

For more news and expert analysis about Egypt, please see Egypt Politics & Security.

Power struggle between Egyptian conservatives and reformists continues

The Islamists continue to debate the merits of participating in the upcoming People's Assembly elections, with it representing a continuation of the power struggle between the conservatives and reformists.

The reformists want to continue with the movement's political engagement process, despite the prospect of losing much political weight in the next elections. The conservatives, however, see no value in participation as the National Democratic Party (NDP) senior figures have made it clear that the Islamists will not be allowed political space to campaign.

A most likely scenario is the movement's participation but with limited candidates standing; something that would possibly satisfy both camps within the movement.

Many analysts are predicting a crunch time for the movement after the elections at the end of the year, as the outcome is likely to determine the future direction of the group and its role in Egyptian politics.

For more news and expert analysis about Egypt, please see Egypt Politics & Security.

© 2010 Menas Associates