Egypt: Muslim Brotherhood challenges the military

Critics of the Muslim Brotherhood say it has brought this mess over its candidate upon its own head. Its call for the current interim government to step down was a direct challenge to the military. It ended what appeared to be an agreement with the military. The Brotherhood would not demonstrate or rock the boat until after the handover of power. It agreed the timetable for elections for president, though with different aspirations. But when it decided to field its own candidate, and stuffed the constituent assembly with its own handpicked members and sympathisers, it was accused of overreaching itself and seeking to dominate political life like the former ruling party: the National Democratic Party (NDP) with beards.

Whatever happens in the presidential elections, the new president will have two enormous issues to deal with. The first is political. He will have to drive a path between a parliament dominated by the Islamists - the Freedom and Justice Party (FJP) and al-Nour - and the military, which, though it has promised to withdraw from day to day running of the country, will still remain the final arbiter of political life.

The second main challenge will be the economy. The state finances are a mess. Foreign currency earnings have not picked up; tourists are put off by continuing instability. The government's response is to spend rather than to rein in spending. Whoever comes to power will be forced to impose very difficult austerity measures.

For more news and expert analysis about Egypt, please see Egypt Politics & Security.

© 2012 Menas Associates

Egypt: Brotherhood U-turn

The Muslim Brotherhood has indicated it is to make a U-turn over putting forward a candidate for the presidential elections, due to take place 23-24 May. The Brotherhood Freedom and Justice Party (FJP) had originally said it would not put forward a candidate but would endorse one of those who presented himself. The spokesman for the Brotherhood, Mahmoud Ghozlan, said that the organisation now says that it cannot endorse any of those who have so far registered. But in a classic example of political doublespeak it denied reversing policy. "This is not a retreat from our former position, but rather a reaction to the ruling military council's refusal to allow us [through the Freedom and Justice Party] to form a new government."

The quandary that the Brotherhood faces is that its youth wing supports one of those who are standing, Abdel Moneim Aboul Fotouh, who was expelled from the organisation for breaking ranks and disobeying the policy decision not to present his candidature. The organisation's hierarchy is unwilling to show any compromise over disciplinary matters, and yet faces the prospect of many of its members voting for someone who was expelled from the organisation.

The Brotherhood's guidance council is due to meet on 23 March to decide on the issue, with Khairat al-Shater, the group's financier, considered the front runner. He would appear not to be eligible, however, as he has a criminal record: he was convicted of providing university students with military training.

For more news and expert analysis about Egypt, please see Egypt Politics & Security.

© 2012 Menas Associates

Political parties jockeying for a say in the drawing up of new constituent assembly

Egypt's political parties are all jockeying for a say in the drawing up of the new constituent assembly. The Freedom and Justice Party (FJP) , with the largest representation in parliament, is proposing that 40% of its members should be drawn from parliament and the remainder from the great and good of society including legal and constitutional experts as well as trades unionists. Their proposal would ensure that the Muslim Brotherhood would dominate the drafting.

At the other end of the spectrum the activists and liberals want to see groups that are not represented in parliament - or at least, with few members drawn from their ranks, such as women, Christians and young people - have a say and would like the constituent assembly to touch all the bases by having their voices heard.

The procedural discussions are merely the prelude to the discussions of substance which will decide the political system that Egyptians will be bound by. The key will be the division of authority between the presidency and parliament. Until now the former has enjoyed total executive power with parliament little more than a talking shop that rubber stamps presidential decrees. Traditionally the presidency deals with security and sovereign issues – which are very broadly defined - including internal security, while the politically weaker and more technocratic government deals with the economy and other matters. The Muslim Brotherhood, which still maintains it will not put up a candidate for presidential elections, wants government and authority to derive more from parliament in which it has an effective majority. One idea might be to split responsibilities so that the presidency deals with foreign affairs and the parliament internal.

For their part the Salafis, with the second largest representation in parliament, would like an even higher proportion of members of the constituent assembly to be drawn from parliament. Some of their members want Article 2 of the constitution to be changed so that Islam is Egypt's only source of legislation rather than being the principle source as it is at present.

The ghost in the room as always is the military, which over the past year through the ill-fated proposals for "The Democratic Transition and Achievement of the Goals of the Revolution” that were produced by the former Deputy Prime Minister for Political Affairs Ali El-Selmi has been manoeuvring for special dispensation from parliamentary oversight. None of the political parties wishes to give the military any special favours. All insist that the military should be subject to constitutional control and that its budget be subject to parliamentary scrutiny. Yet the military, though openly declaring that it is handing over to a civil authority in July, is deeply opposed to any interference in its autonomous existence.

These are uncharted waters and any period of political transition is uncertain. Egyptian decisions are traditionally taken by the deep state irrespective of the shell institutions that are meant to take them. The test of the revolution is how much that will have changed and how much the old way of doing things will survive.

For more news and expert analysis about Egypt, please see Egypt Politics & Security.

© 2012 Menas Associates