Over 100,000 security guards have been deployed to Baghdad days before an Arab League summit. Airspace around the city has been closed until Thursday 29 March, and security personnel are already patrolling the streets and stop-searching vehicles.
The meeting is expected to focus on the crisis in Syria, but the occasion will also be a test for Iraq's government following the on-going violence of recent months. There have been a number of bomb attacks across the country since US troops withdrew at the end of December 2011.
Over 50 people were killed in the most recent series of co-ordinated attacks on Tuesday, the deadliest of which struck the cities of Karbala and Kirkuk.
It is estimated that between $400-500million have been spent refurbishing facilities and on security measures as this is an opportunity for Iraq's Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki to show how the country is progressing since US troops left last year.
The focus of the main meeting itself is likely to be Syria and what further pressure Arab leaders can put on the government of Bashar al-Assad, who has not been invited.
National security official Safa Hussein told the AFP news agency that the Islamic State of Iraq, an umbrella group that includes al-Qa'ida in Iraq, was planning an attack, but added: "We think security will go well."
Sources: BBC News, Bloomberg, AFP
For more news and expert analysis about Iraq, please see Iraq Focus.
Showing posts with label Arab League. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Arab League. Show all posts
Tuesday, 27 March 2012
Tuesday, 12 July 2011
Libya remains in a vicious spiral of confrontation
Libya remains caught in a vicious spiral of military and political confrontation which is defying resolution by the peace-makers. The most favoured candidates to settle the matter, when the two sides are ready to be brought together, are the Arab League and the AU. So far, the League has been muted. Its secretary general, Amr Moussa, who supported the UN Resolution 1973 for intervention in Libya, made a public stance against the continuance of the war in late June. He called for immediate talks to bring about a ceasefire, and suggested that a political solution was bound to be needed in the end.
Given that he is a strong potential Libyan presidential candidate his views have to be taken seriously. South Africa finds itself equally uncertain of a way forward but, like Moussa, takes the view that Colonel Mu'ammar Qadhafi should not necessarily be driven into exile. They are not enthusiastic about the Leader holding onto power, especially if it continues to obstruct an early political settlement.
The comparative ineffectiveness of the two armies in the last two months would lead to a conclusion that stalemate now prevails. The situation is, however, more complex than this because the revolutionary national army has become increasingly well-equipped following France's air lifting of new weapons for the Berber community which is resisting the drive from Zintan by Qadhafi's forces.
One of the rebels' basic problems is the capture of new territory at a high price of human life which would spell recurrent problems in the future and help to recruit groups in Tripolitania to Qadhafi's side. Whether the older heads in the TNC can keep control of the formations of young volunteer soldiers fighting at the fronts is unlikely. The latter on the battle fronts would not accept that Colonel Qadhafi, his family or henchmen remains in Libya. This single objective gives a unity to the insurrection against the Qadhafi clan which will not to be given up lightly.
For more news and expert analysis about Libya, please see Libya Focus and Libya Politics & Security.
© 2011 Menas Associates
Given that he is a strong potential Libyan presidential candidate his views have to be taken seriously. South Africa finds itself equally uncertain of a way forward but, like Moussa, takes the view that Colonel Mu'ammar Qadhafi should not necessarily be driven into exile. They are not enthusiastic about the Leader holding onto power, especially if it continues to obstruct an early political settlement.
The comparative ineffectiveness of the two armies in the last two months would lead to a conclusion that stalemate now prevails. The situation is, however, more complex than this because the revolutionary national army has become increasingly well-equipped following France's air lifting of new weapons for the Berber community which is resisting the drive from Zintan by Qadhafi's forces.
One of the rebels' basic problems is the capture of new territory at a high price of human life which would spell recurrent problems in the future and help to recruit groups in Tripolitania to Qadhafi's side. Whether the older heads in the TNC can keep control of the formations of young volunteer soldiers fighting at the fronts is unlikely. The latter on the battle fronts would not accept that Colonel Qadhafi, his family or henchmen remains in Libya. This single objective gives a unity to the insurrection against the Qadhafi clan which will not to be given up lightly.
For more news and expert analysis about Libya, please see Libya Focus and Libya Politics & Security.
© 2011 Menas Associates
Thursday, 14 April 2011
Egypt: New National Party will be headed by Talaat El Sadat
It was announced on 13th April that the former ruling National Democratic Party is being recreated as the New National Party. It will be headed by Talaat El Sadat, who had been critical of the policies of the old party.
The cabinet has approved an electronic voting system for Egyptians living abroad. Egypt has nominated Mustafa El Fiki as its candidate to succeed Amr Mousa as the next secretary general of the Arab League. The choice has provoked derision. El Fiki had been appointed by former president Hosni Mubarak as the head of the now dissolved Shura Council's foreign relations committee. He was also beneficiary of one of the most blatant and outrageous pieces of electoral chicanery. In the 2005 election, he was soundly beaten by the Muslim Brotherhood candidate Gamal Hishmat in the Damanhur constituency. The electoral officers, however, merely switched the result so that El Fiki got Hishmat's votes and vice versa. The switch was exposed by an electoral monitor Noha El Zeini but this did not deter El Fiki from taking his seat.
The military government has said it will remove some provincial governors appointed by Mubarak. Most of these were either former senior police or army officers.
For more news and expert analysis about Egypt, please see Egypt Politics & Security.
© 2011 Menas Associates
The cabinet has approved an electronic voting system for Egyptians living abroad. Egypt has nominated Mustafa El Fiki as its candidate to succeed Amr Mousa as the next secretary general of the Arab League. The choice has provoked derision. El Fiki had been appointed by former president Hosni Mubarak as the head of the now dissolved Shura Council's foreign relations committee. He was also beneficiary of one of the most blatant and outrageous pieces of electoral chicanery. In the 2005 election, he was soundly beaten by the Muslim Brotherhood candidate Gamal Hishmat in the Damanhur constituency. The electoral officers, however, merely switched the result so that El Fiki got Hishmat's votes and vice versa. The switch was exposed by an electoral monitor Noha El Zeini but this did not deter El Fiki from taking his seat.
The military government has said it will remove some provincial governors appointed by Mubarak. Most of these were either former senior police or army officers.
For more news and expert analysis about Egypt, please see Egypt Politics & Security.
© 2011 Menas Associates
Monday, 14 March 2011
International community at “point of decision" about Libya
Reports have emerged that rebel forces within Libya have re-taken the oil town of Brega, capturing military troops. Hours earlier the rebels were driven out of the town by Colonel Mu'ammar Qadhafi's supporters.
Speaking about the situation in Libya, Britain's Foreign Secretary William Hague has said that the international community is close to reaching a “point of decision" on military intervention to protect the Libyan population from Qadhafi'S aerial bombardment.
Following Arab League's backing of imposition of a military no-fly zone, Hague said that the international community has a responsibility to consider the rebels' requests for help. He also said that the international community should consider arming the rebels in order to help them combat Qadhafi's loyalists.
Speaking to BBC Radio 4's Today programme, Hague said: "We are now reaching a point of decision, very clearly, on what happens next…Clearly a no-fly zone is one of the leading propositions. It isn't the answer to everything but it has been called for by the Arab League and is something which the international community must now consider."
Hague added that all arms exports to Libya, including to the rebels, are subject to a UN embargo, but noted: "I wouldn't exclude various possibilities on this score…Again, this is the kind of subject which has to be discussed with our international partners."
Sources: BBC News, Sky News, The Guardian, AP
For more news and expert analysis about Libya, please see Libya Focus and Libya Politics & Security.
Speaking about the situation in Libya, Britain's Foreign Secretary William Hague has said that the international community is close to reaching a “point of decision" on military intervention to protect the Libyan population from Qadhafi'S aerial bombardment.
Following Arab League's backing of imposition of a military no-fly zone, Hague said that the international community has a responsibility to consider the rebels' requests for help. He also said that the international community should consider arming the rebels in order to help them combat Qadhafi's loyalists.
Speaking to BBC Radio 4's Today programme, Hague said: "We are now reaching a point of decision, very clearly, on what happens next…Clearly a no-fly zone is one of the leading propositions. It isn't the answer to everything but it has been called for by the Arab League and is something which the international community must now consider."
Hague added that all arms exports to Libya, including to the rebels, are subject to a UN embargo, but noted: "I wouldn't exclude various possibilities on this score…Again, this is the kind of subject which has to be discussed with our international partners."
Sources: BBC News, Sky News, The Guardian, AP
For more news and expert analysis about Libya, please see Libya Focus and Libya Politics & Security.
Thursday, 16 December 2010
Conspiracy theorist believe the next Egyptian president will be Washington's man

It is widely believed by conspiracy theorists in the Middle East, and there are many, that the next president of Egypt must enjoy the blessing of the US. This is not a view that emerges out of the latest batch of cables from the US embassy in Cairo released by WikiLeaks.
What the cables reveal is the assessment of successive US ambassadors to Egypt that President Mubarak is someone who will not be pushed around on matters of human rights, democratisation or other aspects of how Egypt runs its affairs. And furthermore, that the successive ambassadors do not pretend to know who might be the next president after Mubarak. A number of names are put forward as possibilities: the president's younger son Gamal; the intelligence chief Omar Suleiman; the “charismatic” head of the Arab League, Amr Mousa [this was back in 2007]; or some unknown military man.
It has been said that President Mubarak will not step down but is more likely to die in office.
In addition, the previous US ambassador Frank Ricciardone suggests that the next president, whoever it might be, could have an "initial anti-American tone in his public rhetoric" to win over the Egyptian street."
The conspiracy theorists might be unwilling or unable to take the cables at face value. They will persist in their conviction that the next president of Egypt will be Washington's man. That is certainly not the view of Washington.
For more news and expert analysis about Egypt, please see Egypt Politics & Security.
© 2010 Menas Associates
Thursday, 26 August 2010
Debate over Lockerbie bomber release continues unabated

The prolonged flow of criticism of the Scottish and, by extension, the British government, over the release of Lockerbie bomber Abdel Basset al-Meghrahi continues unabated in the US. The cacophony is now spreading to London, where the right-wing press is clamouring for greater UK frankness in dealing with those members of the US Senate, principally by making available more official documents in the case relating to diagnoses of the state of al-Meghrahi's life expectancy in the period immediately prior to his release.
A second line of US interest is the BP connection to the release and repatriation of al-Meghrahi to Libya in 2009, when, it is alleged, the oil company used lobbying at the highest level. In effect, there have been recurrent claims that British policy was driven by commercial motives before all others.
The forthcoming mid-term elections in the US considerably enhance the response by the US to these twin difficulties with the UK: Lockerbie and BP.
Attempts by many candidates to seize the moral high ground in the energy sector, and in demonstration of high nationalist sentiments pitched against foreign interest, become keen areas of concern, especially when wedded to the problems faced by BP in the Gulf of Mexico in recent months.
President Barack Obama called for Libya not to make the anniversary of al-Meghrahi's release a public spectacle; a request also delivered by the British government. Libyan consideration on the matter was limited, but adequate to meet these requirements.
In a remarkable sign of frustration, al-Meghrahi claimed that his imprisonment in the UK had been a torment equal to a death by deprivation lasting through a thousand days of pain while incarcerated. He was critical of the British for keeping him in a prison as an inmate without special needs for his medical problems, although it is to be noted that he has kept in touch with fellow prisoners during the last year. The unofficial Libyan view is that the diplomatic initiatives taken in America can be ignored.
Certainly, there is little possibility that the Libyans will agree to return al-Meghrahi to the custody of the Scottish authorities as requested by important American politicians, including Secretary of State Hillary Clinton.
For the Libyans, the case is closed and the low media treatment inside the country of the first anniversary of his release indicates that this is so. The Libyan authorities, however, have problems of their own with al-Meghrahi. He has, after all, unique knowledge of at least some part of the plot to down the airliner in 1988, but of which he has so far not revealed any details. It is to be supposed that the Libyan government would prefer this situation not to be changed. Much speculation by relatives of victims of the bombing as to the comparative role of al-Meghrahi tends to indicate their belief that more powerful individuals and institutions from Syria, Iran and the Palestinian organisations were involved.
In private, senior Libyans, who have been involved in foreign affairs and other external relations, are quite blunt in indicating that the pro-Israeli lobbies in Washington appear to be in support of the campaign for the re-imprisonment of al-Meghrahi. However, given the media attention generated over the al-Meghrahi issue in the US, it must be expected that the case will continue to cause irritation there for some time.
Four US members of Congress, Robert Menendez, Frank R Lautenberg, Charles Schumer and Kirsten Gillibrand sent a letter on 20th August to the Emir of Qatar Sheikh Hamad bin Khalifa al-Thani (one time head of the Arab League), the First Minister of Scotland Alex Salmond and to Colonel Qadhafi. They communicated their concerns that the release of al-Meghrahi might be construed as politically improper and legally questionable.
The four did not take account of the circumstances at the time which were the end of the long engagement with weapons of mass destruction (WMD) by Colonel Qadhafi, and other concessions made by Libya as a means of ending US and UN sanctions. It is assumed by Libyan opposition spokesmen that the al-Meghrahi issue was, from the mid 1980s, an integral part of the settlement deal with Libya's return to the international community. Dr Ghanem has hinted strongly that the current US awakening of interest in the release of al-Meghrahi takes no account of the realities of the broader deal thrashed out by Libya at an earlier period.
In the meantime, congressional pressure being put on the UK and in particular, the Scottish government, is designed to exploit natural sentiment against an individual found guilty of mass murder of their fellow citizens. The British, for their part, have responded coldly to the US demands and are unlikely to do other than release documents pertinent to the case.
For more news and expert analysis about Libya, please see Libya Focus and Libya Politics & Security.
© 2010 Menas Associates
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