Preparations for parliamentary elections begin in Egypt

President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi issued a decree on Tuesday 15 July creating an electoral commission to oversee the upcoming parliamentary elections. This is in keeping with his statement last month indicating that the procedures for parliamentary elections, the first step of which is the appointment of an electoral commission, would take place before 18 July.

The commission will be formed of the head of the Court of Appeals and the eldest members of the Court of Cassation. Its formation indicates that we should expect to hear an announcement regarding the timing of elections in the next week or two. 

The vote is still expected to be held in mid to late-September, as the government is keen on completing a full transition to an elected government and it is very likely that several draft laws are being held up until a parliament is in place to approve them.

In a development that could have a significant impact on the shape of the next parliament, the Cairo Court of Appeals has overturned a ban placed on members of the now defunct National Democratic Party (NDP), which had been headed by former president Hosni Mubarak, from participating in political life. 

The new ruling means that any former NDP member of parliament may run again in the next election cycle (those convicted of crimes in the last three years will still be banned from running), and it is particularly significant given that the new parliamentary electoral law, which has been heavily criticised by the country’s political parties, heavily favours individual candidate districts.

Former members of parliament will now find it easier to run in the constituencies they had once held, as they will not be required to join a political party (most of whom have shunned former NDP members) to compete in individual districts. 

It should be noted that while previous bans failed to prevent many NDP members from running in the 2011 parliamentary elections, they performed poorly against Muslim Brotherhood candidates, who have been banned from taking part in political life.

For more news and expert analysis about Egypt, please see Egypt Politics & Security.

© 2014 Menas Associates

Egypt: Muslim Brotherhood challenges the military

Critics of the Muslim Brotherhood say it has brought this mess over its candidate upon its own head. Its call for the current interim government to step down was a direct challenge to the military. It ended what appeared to be an agreement with the military. The Brotherhood would not demonstrate or rock the boat until after the handover of power. It agreed the timetable for elections for president, though with different aspirations. But when it decided to field its own candidate, and stuffed the constituent assembly with its own handpicked members and sympathisers, it was accused of overreaching itself and seeking to dominate political life like the former ruling party: the National Democratic Party (NDP) with beards.

Whatever happens in the presidential elections, the new president will have two enormous issues to deal with. The first is political. He will have to drive a path between a parliament dominated by the Islamists - the Freedom and Justice Party (FJP) and al-Nour - and the military, which, though it has promised to withdraw from day to day running of the country, will still remain the final arbiter of political life.

The second main challenge will be the economy. The state finances are a mess. Foreign currency earnings have not picked up; tourists are put off by continuing instability. The government's response is to spend rather than to rein in spending. Whoever comes to power will be forced to impose very difficult austerity measures.

For more news and expert analysis about Egypt, please see Egypt Politics & Security.

© 2012 Menas Associates

Mohamed ElBaradei urges Egypt to boycott election

Former chief of the International Atomic Energy Agency, Mohamed ElBaradei, has urged Egyptians to boycott November's parliamentary election, saying it is certain to be rigged by the government. ElBaradei explained that taking part in the election would go against "the national will" to transform Egypt into a democracy.

ElBaradei has not yet said whether he will run for president in 2011. And it is still unclear who will succeed President Mubarak, nor whether Mubarak will seek re-election, but speculation has been mounting and many believe that he will try to install his son, Gamal, in the role if he decides to retire.

Shorty after his return to Egypt, in February, ElBaradei's National Coalition for Change launched a petition calling for constitutional changes and guarantees of free elections. The petition lists seven demands including allowing independents to run for president, and the lifting of the emergency laws that have been in place since 1981.

"We have gathered nearly a million signatures in six months and we can reach up to two to three million more by the end of this year," said ElBaradei on Monday.

In talking about the government ElBaradei said that the ruling National Democratic Party (NDP) has failed Egypt, and is responsible for rising poverty and illiteracy, and the disregard of human rights.

"When I look at the temple they built, I see a decaying temple, nearly collapsing. It will fall sooner rather than later. I will never enter this temple. What we call for is to bring down this temple in a peaceful civilised manner. If the whole population boycotts the elections totally, it will be in my view the end of the regime," concluded ElBaradei.

Source: BBC News

For more news and expert analysis about Egypt, please see Egypt Politics & Security.

Spontaneous campaign backs Mubarak's son Gamal

Posters backing Gamal Mubarak have been spotted in a number of Egypt's poorer neighbourhoods. News of these posters began circulating shortly after several online campaigners set out to gather millions of signatures calling on Gamal to stand in the next presidential elections.

It is evident within Egypt that there is an ongoing campaign backing the president's son who is also the senior officer of the ruling National Democratic Party (NDP).Government officials, however, insist that neither the NDP nor Gamal himself have anything to do with the campaign which is said to be spontaneous and one that the government has no intention of silencing.

"These campaigns represent individual initiatives; they are in no way related to the NDP. None of the leadership of the NDP has endorsed them officially or unofficially. So it remains a sporadic voluntary activity in society," said Aley el-Din Hilal, a senior official of the party.

There seem to be some contradictions as far as these campaigns are concerned. Gamal Mubarak is regarded as a man of privilege; therefore it is unexpected to find the headquarters of the People's Coalition in support of Gamal Mubarak in one of the poorest and deprived areas of Cairo, or hear the organiser, Magdi el-Murdy, suggest that Gamal Mubarak, if elected president, will help move the power away from the elite.

It is not surprising that members of the opposition have a different perspective on these developments. Shadi Taha of the opposition al-Ghad party described the campaign as an attempt to show that the Egyptian public was "begging" Gamal Mubarak to stand. He also suggested that if Gamal Mubarak is elected, it would set Egypt back hundreds of years.

It remains unclear whether Gamal Mubarak is behind the supposedly spontaneous presidency campaign, and whether he will ever be openly endorsed by his father who remains reticent about naming a successor and has always maintained that he would serve Egypt to his last breath.

Source: BBC

For more news and expert analysis about Egypt, please see Egypt Politics & Security.

The NDP tainted by medical care scandal and corruption

The National Democratic Party's (NDP) preparations for the upcoming People's Assembly elections are in full swing, with key figures reviewing the party's draft list of candidates and its draft platform.

This week, President Mubarak met with the NDP's Secretary General Safwat el Sherif and the head of the Policy Secretariat Gamal Mubarak to try to put the final touches to the NDP's political agenda, which will satisfy both the old and new guard inside the NDP.

There is an agreement from both camps that any new list will have to be based on a review of the performance of all its representatives from the outgoing 2005-10 parliament, with popularity and good reputation being decisive factors in determining which candidate will stand in the upcoming elections.

This criterion seems ever important given that the investigation into the growing medical care scandal continues, which has tarnished the image of many NDP deputies.

A number of NDP deputies have been charged with wasting state funds allocated for free medical treatment to their poorest constituents, and they are accused of manipulating the health care system to serve personal and family interests.

It has been reported in the Egyptian media that the NDP has prepared a list of 27 deputies implicated in the scandal, who are to be excluded from any new list. This indicates the desire of the NDP to clean up its image, and has been agreed with the old guard, which realises that it cannot continue to field unpopular candidates without the risk of further alienating the new guard inside the party.

Some names are guaranteed to appear on the final list, despite popularity and reputation. They include Fathi Sorour, the speaker of the People's Assembly, and member of the NDP's politburo, Zakaria Azmi, Chief of President Mubarak's Staff since 1989 and Kamal el Shazli, a long-serving NDP deputy known for his loyalty to the President.

Controversially, the list is likely to see an increased number of businessmen; more than the 2005 elections which witnessed 100 business candidates, of whom 68 won seats in the People's Assembly.

Those likely to appear on the new list include, Ahmed Ezz, NDP Secretary for Organisational Affairs, Mohammed Abu-Enein, Chairman of the Parliaments Industrial Committee and Tarek Talaat Mustafa, Chairman of the Parliament Housing Committee.

The final list is likely to be praised for its exclusion of deputies tainted by corruption and embezzlement but, at the same time, criticised for the growing presence of businessmen, who are perceived to have strengthened their grip on Egyptian politics through their infiltration into the central political, such as the People's Assembly, Shura Council and the NDP's Policy Secretariat.

For more news and expert analysis about Egypt, please see Egypt Politics & Security.

© 2010 Menas Associates

Power struggle between Egyptian conservatives and reformists continues

The Islamists continue to debate the merits of participating in the upcoming People's Assembly elections, with it representing a continuation of the power struggle between the conservatives and reformists.

The reformists want to continue with the movement's political engagement process, despite the prospect of losing much political weight in the next elections. The conservatives, however, see no value in participation as the National Democratic Party (NDP) senior figures have made it clear that the Islamists will not be allowed political space to campaign.

A most likely scenario is the movement's participation but with limited candidates standing; something that would possibly satisfy both camps within the movement.

Many analysts are predicting a crunch time for the movement after the elections at the end of the year, as the outcome is likely to determine the future direction of the group and its role in Egyptian politics.

For more news and expert analysis about Egypt, please see Egypt Politics & Security.

© 2010 Menas Associates