Egypt in turmoil

President Hosni Mubarak has dashed hopes and confounded dashed hopes and confounded expectations by using a televised address on State television last night to declare he would not budge. In effect, he said he was stepping aside, not down by handing over some unspecified powers to his newly appointed vice president and intelligence chief Omar Suleiman.

The move, or rather lack of one, came at the end of an extraordinary few hours. They began with the issuing of Communiqué Number One from the military command council. The communiqué itself was bland and uninformative:

“The Higher Army Council held a meeting today under Hussein Tantawi the head of the armed forces and minister of defence to discuss the necessary measures and preparations to protect the nation, its gains and the aspirations of the people. The council decided to remain in continuous session to discuss measures that can be taken in this regard.”

Historians of the Arab world, however, will recognise that the first intimation of a coup traditionally is the seizure of the radio station and the broadcast of a communiqué by a group of sometimes unknown army officers.

The army communiqué was followed by statements from the new secretary general of the ruling National Democratic Party Hossam Badrawi and the prime minister, Ahmed Shafiq, that President Mubarak was going.

The president's decision not to go but to soldier on until elections in September raises questions about the role of the army. There is no disputing that the protestors in Tahrir square feel deeply insulted by the patronising tone adopted by the incumbent president. Essentially, each side is now appealing to the armed forces to forgo its neutrality and take sides in this constitutional impasse. But it is yet unclear whether it will.

The army has now issued a Communiqué Number Two which "confirms the lifting of the state of emergency as soon as the current circumstances end," a pledge that would eradicate a 30-year law that protesters say is used to suppress dissent.

In an interview publicised shortly before the second communiqué, Egypt's leading opposition figure Mohamed El Baradei said the army "has to side with the people".

Speaking about the prospect of some of Mubarak's powers being transferred to Suleiman, El Baradei noted: “The people on the street feel the same way about Suleiman as they feel about Mubarak. He is to them only a mirror image of Mubarak."

We will, of course, keep you informed of any significant developments.

For more news and expert analysis about Egypt, please see Egypt Politics & Security.

© 2010 Menas Associates

Egypt: The outcome of the uprising remains unclear

Ten days after protests began, the outcome remains unclear. What is plain, however, is that Egypt has experienced an unprecedented eruption of popular protest against the 30-year rule of President Mubarak — and that the regime is prepared to fight back.

The protests were sparked by the so called 'Jasmine Revolution' in Tunisia, which led to the departure of President Zein el Abdine Ben Ali.

The authorities in Egypt were caught unprepared. The protests were orchestrated by young, internet-savvy activists using Twitter and Facebook and other social networking sites.

The authorities responded by cutting off internet access to the outside world and blocking mobile phone signals. Google reacted by creating a novel form of Twitter by the ability to leave voicemail. An ominous note came from Google which announced that one of its senior executives, an Egyptian, had been missing since the riots began.

By the end of the week, internet services were being restored.

The protestors came from a dozen different groups, mostly secular, but all in different ways calling for the end to what they called a corrupt and repressive regime.

The main opposition movement, the Muslim Brotherhood, remained studiously silent at first, although there were Brotherhood sympathisers among the protestors from the outset.

It has played a shrewd political game positioning itself behind the scenes for a potential role in any future Egyptian government, particularly by backing Dr Mohamed El Baradei, the opposition figure who spends much of his time in Europe.

The group's manifesto is similar to that of most mainstream secular opposition, and contains no clear singular ideology. The group has said it does not believe in the concept of an 'Islamic State' but is working towards the formation of civil one, in which political forces work together regardless of political affiliations.

Two leading Muslim Brotherhood figures, Essam El Eyrian and Abu Fotouh, have said that the movement's goal has not been clearly transmitted to a global audience, creating moral panic in international diplomatic circles about the prospect of an Islamic takeover of Egypt.

For more news and expert analysis about Egypt, please see Egypt Politics & Security.

© 2010 Menas Associates

Mubarak reshuffles cabinet amid demonstrations

The ongoing protests and mounting pressure from the angry protesters have prompted Egypt's President Hosni Mubarak to reshuffle his cabinet. The country's Interior Minister Habib al-Adly, and Finance Minister Youssef Boutros-Ghali , both reviled by the protestors, have been replaced. It is unlikely, however, that the protests will subside unless Mubarak is ousted.

The protestors, on the streets in Cairo in their tens of thousands, have called a large-scale strike on Tuesday 1st February. In a bid to appease the angry crowds Mubarak has ordered the new Prime Minister Ahmed Shafiq to put in place democratic reforms and create employment opportunities.

Adly has been replaced by an army general, Mahmud Wagdi, and Samir Mohammad Radwan becomes finance minister. Radwan said he had a "national mission at a very critical time". Several businessmen holding economic posts have also been removed, evidently to appease the Egyptian people who have resented the influence of the tycoons.

It is generally thought, however, that the reshuffle is not enough to placate the Egyptian people, as the new line-up is not radical enough with both with Foreign Minister Ahmed Aboul Gheit and Defence Minister Gen Mohamed Hussein Tantawi, who is also the new deputy PM, both keeping their jobs.

Egypt has been in turmoil for over a week; with demonstrators clearly united as they remain on Tahrir Square, while military helicopters circle overhead. The army is heavily present on the streets and at military checkpoints. The country's opposition is calling on the Egyptian people to take to the streets in their millions to maintain the pressure on Mubarak's administration. There seems to have been some discord, however, amid the opposition, with the largest group, the Muslim Brotherhood (MB), appearing to go back on its endorsement of leading figure Mohamed El Baradei as a negotiator with Mubarak.

A spokesman for the MB, Mohamed Morsy, told the BBC: "The Muslim Brotherhood is much stronger than Mohamed El Baradei as a person. And we do not agree on he himself to become representing [sic] this movement, the movement is represented by itself, and it will come up with a committee... to make delegations with any government."

Sources: Ha'aretz, FT, WSJ, BBC News

For more news and expert analysis about Egypt, please see Egypt Politics & Security.

Egyptian security forces on high alert as protest get backed by MB

Egyptian security forces have been put on high alert as thousands of anti-government activists prepare for another day of protests after Friday noon's prayers. The government has forewarned the protestors that "decisive measures" will be taken against those demonstrating in public, which the government has banned after Thursday's demonstrations in Cairo.

The government has also taken extra measures to prevent the demonstrations from going ahead, namely by blocking the use of internet across the country and effectively wiping Egypt off the global digital map.

The Muslim Brotherhood (MB), Egypt's leading opposition group, has said that it will support Friday's protests, and accused the government of engineering the digital disruption "to prevent the voices of the Egyptian people from reaching the world". Mohamed El Baradei, the country's main opposition figure, also said he would join in the protests. Returning to Cairo from Vienna on Thursday, El Baradei said:"I wish we did not have to go out on the streets to press the regime to act," adding that the government should "listen quickly, not use violence and understand that change has to come”.

The protests are expected to be the biggest so far. The government has upped its security measures, deploying an elite counter-terrorism force to key locations in Cairo, including Tahrir Square.

Shortly after Thursday's protests ruling National Democratic Party's (NDP) Secretary General, Safwat El-Sheri, said: "The NDP is ready for a dialogue with the public, youth and legal parties. But democracy has its rules and process. The minority does not force its will on the majority."

Sources: BBC News, Aljazeera, NPR, France24

For more news and expert analysis about Egypt, please see Egypt Politics & Security.

Egypt: The presidential elections will likewise be an irrelevance

The parliamentary elections are over. We shall see in the next few days how Egypt's rulers digest the results. President Hosni Mubarak is due to make one of those key speeches that will indicate what changes he will make. Given his record, these will be changes in personnel rather than in direction.

Constitutionally, the elections also pre-qualify parties now able to put forward candidates for the presidential elections due next year. Article 76 of the constitution stipulates that only parties with representatives in parliament or the Shura Council may submit candidates for the presidency. The opposition parties won barely a handful of seats between them but one seat is enough. As a result, eight parties will be able to nominate presidential candidates.

Besides the National Democratic Party (NDP), they are the liberal Wafd Party, the leftist Tagammu Party, and the smaller Ghad, Geel, Nasserist, Al-Salam and Social Justice parties. The Muslim Brotherhood (MB) is not a party so cannot field a candidate. Two individuals often thought to be hopefuls — Mohamed El Baradei and Omar Suleiman — are in theory barred because they are not members of such parties.

What the parliamentary elections have shown, however, is that the Egyptian authorities have scant regard for legal niceties in the determination of who should be their rulers. The elections were marred by widespread fraud, despite the denials of leading party leaders. The presidential elections will likewise be an irrelevance. The system in Egypt will throw up the person who will succeed President Mubarak at the appropriate time. The people will not have a say. It was ever thus.

For more news and expert analysis about Egypt, please see Egypt Politics & Security.

© 2010 Menas Associates