Egypt in turmoil

President Hosni Mubarak has dashed hopes and confounded dashed hopes and confounded expectations by using a televised address on State television last night to declare he would not budge. In effect, he said he was stepping aside, not down by handing over some unspecified powers to his newly appointed vice president and intelligence chief Omar Suleiman.

The move, or rather lack of one, came at the end of an extraordinary few hours. They began with the issuing of Communiqué Number One from the military command council. The communiqué itself was bland and uninformative:

“The Higher Army Council held a meeting today under Hussein Tantawi the head of the armed forces and minister of defence to discuss the necessary measures and preparations to protect the nation, its gains and the aspirations of the people. The council decided to remain in continuous session to discuss measures that can be taken in this regard.”

Historians of the Arab world, however, will recognise that the first intimation of a coup traditionally is the seizure of the radio station and the broadcast of a communiqué by a group of sometimes unknown army officers.

The army communiqué was followed by statements from the new secretary general of the ruling National Democratic Party Hossam Badrawi and the prime minister, Ahmed Shafiq, that President Mubarak was going.

The president's decision not to go but to soldier on until elections in September raises questions about the role of the army. There is no disputing that the protestors in Tahrir square feel deeply insulted by the patronising tone adopted by the incumbent president. Essentially, each side is now appealing to the armed forces to forgo its neutrality and take sides in this constitutional impasse. But it is yet unclear whether it will.

The army has now issued a Communiqué Number Two which "confirms the lifting of the state of emergency as soon as the current circumstances end," a pledge that would eradicate a 30-year law that protesters say is used to suppress dissent.

In an interview publicised shortly before the second communiqué, Egypt's leading opposition figure Mohamed El Baradei said the army "has to side with the people".

Speaking about the prospect of some of Mubarak's powers being transferred to Suleiman, El Baradei noted: “The people on the street feel the same way about Suleiman as they feel about Mubarak. He is to them only a mirror image of Mubarak."

We will, of course, keep you informed of any significant developments.

For more news and expert analysis about Egypt, please see Egypt Politics & Security.

© 2010 Menas Associates

Egypt's future heavily dependent on the army

As the protests enter their third week, the protagonists seem emboldened rather than cowed by their success. Yet some elements remain constant. The regime seems to have grasped that they have misjudged the scale of the movement but have not the flexibility of approach that can either engage with the protestors or defuse the situation.

On the other side, the protest movement seems to be as incoherent as before; perhaps more so. What began as a movement that encompassed mainly the better-educated young professionals is now absorbing all sorts of other groups that have a grievance, including many workers wanting for higher pay.

Three possible outcomes can be envisaged:

> The first is that the regime and the protest movement reach some form of compromise. This would be a first, given the very limited experience in the Arab world of sharing power. Assuming that a presidential system of government were maintained, it would also mean choosing a candidate acceptable to both sides, which would be an immense challenge.

>The second is that the regime makes reforms sufficient to defuse the protests by co-opting some, at least, of the protestors. At present, this looks highly unlikely. The regime up until now has been making concessions that appear to those still protesting as too little, too late.

> The third option would be for the regime, or elements within it, to mount a coup and seek to suppress the protests by force. It is questionable whether the regime has the forces to impose itself in such a way, now that the genie is out of the bottle.

It is too early to see how it will play out. Fears of chaos and collapse have so far proved premature. But Egypt is facing a very uncertain time. Much depends as always on the role of the army. There are reports that it is increasingly siding with the people. And there are also reports that it has been behind many of the detentions of protestors. Is it sitting on the fence or having a foot in both camps?

For more news and expert analysis about Egypt, please see Egypt Politics & Security.

© 2010 Menas Associates

Could Egypt follow in Tunisia's footsteps?

Could Egypt follow in Tunisia's footsteps? Could Jordan? Algeria? Libya? This is the question that has been asked repeatedly over the past few days since President Zine Al-Abidine Ben Ali took flight. There are parallels and likenesses between most Arab states: an ageing leadership increasingly out of touch with a young and frustrated population; lack of jobs; rising prices; absence of power sharing or real political debate; absence of the rule of law; corruption in high places.

There are, however, many differences, as much in degree as in substance. There is high level corruption in Egypt, but not to the extent of the mafia state that was Tunisia. A number of wealthy tycoons in Egypt, some in government, have made vast fortunes. But nothing compares to the stranglehold that Ben Ali and his wife's extended family had on most commercial activity. Nor does Egypt have the obsessive paranoia of Ben Ali in terms of information. The liberalisation of the media in Egypt does provide an important safety valve. Furthermore, while there are many poor, the provision of rationed goods means that no one starves.

For many in the Arab world, fear of fitna, of strife or chaos is too great for them to rebel against the state authority. This quietist attitude, helped by often repressive State security, has ensured the endurance of some very unpopular regimes.

What will Egypt do? One reaction would be to become more repressive of dissent. The alternative is to seek to defuse discontent by offering more political concessions. Or it could carry on as before, mindful of what has happened, making minor adjustments to deal with flare-ups.

For more news and expert analysis about Egypt, please see Egypt Politics & Security.

© 2010 Menas Associates

WikiLeaks reveal President Mubarak turned down nuclear deal with Russia

A WikiLeaks cable, published by the Guardian newspaper, has revealed that Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak turned down a black-market proposal to purchase nuclear weapons from Russia.

The May 2009 cable, said that Egypt's UN ambassador, Maged Abdelaziz, told US nuclear arms control negotiator, Rose Gottemoeller, during a Nuclear Non-proliferation Treaty conference in New York, that Egypt “had been offered nuclear scientists, materials and even weapons following the collapse of the Soviet Union, but Egypt had refused all such offers."

Abdelaziz said that Egypt was keen to portray itself as a responsible member of the international community and therefore refused to make nuclear deals with Russia. The revelation has roused concern as to what nuclear sales were made by the other states or groups in the aftermath of the early 1990s economic collapse in Russia and the FSU.

The subject of nuclear arm sales came up following a discussion of a nuclear weapons-free zone in the Middle East, during the New York conference. When asked how he knew the proposed sale to be true, “Abdelaziz replied he was in Moscow at that time and had direct personal knowledge."

Sources: Ha'aretz, Guardian, Jerusalem Post

For more news and expert analysis about Egypt, please see Egypt Politics & Security.

US calls on Egypt to allow foreign election monitors

The US has called on Egypt to allow foreign election monitors for its 28th November parliamentary elections and greater freedoms in regard to political gatherings and media coverage. In the past, Egypt has perennially refused to allow international monitors into the country, saying it does not need external supervision when it comes to its political proceedings.

Speaking about the lack of freedoms within Egypt, opposition leader George Ishaq said, “they say this and then we know what happened and what will happen,” adding that the Egyptian elections are “the farthest thing from free and if anyone believes the government they are mistaken.”

In view of past elections and recent censures of the country's largest opposition group, the Muslim Brotherhood (MB), the international community has expressed concern about the bias nature of the Egyptian election process and the integrity of the vote set to take place at the end of the month.

The Egyptian government has recently arrested dozens of MB members and has periodically restricted media coverage of opposition campaigns. The US State Department spokesman P.J. Crowley recently issued a statement saying, “An open electoral process would include a credible and impartial mechanism for reviewing election-related complaints, a domestic election observation effort according to international standards, and the presence of international observers.”

The government said it would allow local civil society groups to monitor the parliamentary elections, but Ishaq and other critics think these measures are simply not enough to ensure a fair election. As opposition activists in Cairo continually push for greater freedoms and a change in how government functions, they have called on president Barack Obama to follow his June 2009 speech in Cairo with action.

“We want Obama to stand for us disenfranchised people, but right now he is just giving lip service to us because they don't want to ruin their relationship with the government,” said another activist Reda Hamza.

Source: Bikya Masr

For more news and expert analysis about Egypt, please see Egypt Politics & Security.