Egypt: Who will gain most from the Mubarak verdict?

Former president Hosni Mubarak was convicted to life imprisonment for not preventing the killing of more than 800 citizens during the 18 days of protests, but who will gain most from the verdict? The disappointment of many at a verdict that seems once again not to have held to account anyone for the actual killing of more than 840 Egyptians may turn voters out of their armchairs to vote against Ahmed Shafiq for all that he stands for.

That said, his stirring of the fears that his rival would send the country back to the dark ages could equally appeal to those who feel most at risk of discrimination, especially the Christian community. He is appealing to the silent majority; Mohamed Morsi to those who shout out loud.

Egypt is at a critical point in its untidy transition. It still has no agreed constitution for whoever is elected. In the past, it was easy to say that he who was elected took power. So long as the army's intentions remain unclear - possibly even to itself - there is no saying how much power the president will enjoy.

The army has said that it will hand over to an elected president at the end of the month. It has said it will not interfere in the process by which Egyptians elect their new president.

To add to the uncertainty, the courts may disqualify Ahmed Shafiq. Then Egyptians would be faced with a familiar process: an election for president for which there is only one candidate. Not what the revolution was about.

For more news and expert analysis about Egypt, please see Egypt Politics & Security.

© 2012 Menas Associates

Egypt: Abdel Moneim Aboul Fotouh is the presidential candidate uniting different factions within the country

The presidential contest is not only between Amr Moussa and Abdel Moneim Aboul Fotouh. They might have had the first television debate but two others, the official candidate of the country's best organised political movement, the Muslim Brotherhood, Mohamed Morsi, and the former prime minister Ahmed Shafiq, are also serious contenders. Two are former ministers. Shafiq, in particularly, appeals to the desire to restore law and order. Moussa, in his television debate, sought to distance himself from the regime which he had served as foreign minister.

The strength of Aboul Fotouh is equally his weakness. He has been trying to appeal to all voters. He was originally a Salafist and has the endorsement of the Salafists. He became a Muslim Brother but fell out with them. He has the support of younger Muslim Brothers who do not care for their rigid and elderly leaders. And he has also reached out to Copts and others as a moderate voice.

His critics, however, argue that he is so bent on power that he will sell any of his principles. Of all the candidates, he is the major one nearest to being a candidate uniting all different factions within the country.

For more news and expert analysis about Egypt, please see Egypt Politics & Security.

© 2012 Menas Associates

Egypt in turmoil

President Hosni Mubarak has dashed hopes and confounded dashed hopes and confounded expectations by using a televised address on State television last night to declare he would not budge. In effect, he said he was stepping aside, not down by handing over some unspecified powers to his newly appointed vice president and intelligence chief Omar Suleiman.

The move, or rather lack of one, came at the end of an extraordinary few hours. They began with the issuing of Communiqué Number One from the military command council. The communiqué itself was bland and uninformative:

“The Higher Army Council held a meeting today under Hussein Tantawi the head of the armed forces and minister of defence to discuss the necessary measures and preparations to protect the nation, its gains and the aspirations of the people. The council decided to remain in continuous session to discuss measures that can be taken in this regard.”

Historians of the Arab world, however, will recognise that the first intimation of a coup traditionally is the seizure of the radio station and the broadcast of a communiqué by a group of sometimes unknown army officers.

The army communiqué was followed by statements from the new secretary general of the ruling National Democratic Party Hossam Badrawi and the prime minister, Ahmed Shafiq, that President Mubarak was going.

The president's decision not to go but to soldier on until elections in September raises questions about the role of the army. There is no disputing that the protestors in Tahrir square feel deeply insulted by the patronising tone adopted by the incumbent president. Essentially, each side is now appealing to the armed forces to forgo its neutrality and take sides in this constitutional impasse. But it is yet unclear whether it will.

The army has now issued a Communiqué Number Two which "confirms the lifting of the state of emergency as soon as the current circumstances end," a pledge that would eradicate a 30-year law that protesters say is used to suppress dissent.

In an interview publicised shortly before the second communiqué, Egypt's leading opposition figure Mohamed El Baradei said the army "has to side with the people".

Speaking about the prospect of some of Mubarak's powers being transferred to Suleiman, El Baradei noted: “The people on the street feel the same way about Suleiman as they feel about Mubarak. He is to them only a mirror image of Mubarak."

We will, of course, keep you informed of any significant developments.

For more news and expert analysis about Egypt, please see Egypt Politics & Security.

© 2010 Menas Associates

Mubarak reshuffles cabinet amid demonstrations

The ongoing protests and mounting pressure from the angry protesters have prompted Egypt's President Hosni Mubarak to reshuffle his cabinet. The country's Interior Minister Habib al-Adly, and Finance Minister Youssef Boutros-Ghali , both reviled by the protestors, have been replaced. It is unlikely, however, that the protests will subside unless Mubarak is ousted.

The protestors, on the streets in Cairo in their tens of thousands, have called a large-scale strike on Tuesday 1st February. In a bid to appease the angry crowds Mubarak has ordered the new Prime Minister Ahmed Shafiq to put in place democratic reforms and create employment opportunities.

Adly has been replaced by an army general, Mahmud Wagdi, and Samir Mohammad Radwan becomes finance minister. Radwan said he had a "national mission at a very critical time". Several businessmen holding economic posts have also been removed, evidently to appease the Egyptian people who have resented the influence of the tycoons.

It is generally thought, however, that the reshuffle is not enough to placate the Egyptian people, as the new line-up is not radical enough with both with Foreign Minister Ahmed Aboul Gheit and Defence Minister Gen Mohamed Hussein Tantawi, who is also the new deputy PM, both keeping their jobs.

Egypt has been in turmoil for over a week; with demonstrators clearly united as they remain on Tahrir Square, while military helicopters circle overhead. The army is heavily present on the streets and at military checkpoints. The country's opposition is calling on the Egyptian people to take to the streets in their millions to maintain the pressure on Mubarak's administration. There seems to have been some discord, however, amid the opposition, with the largest group, the Muslim Brotherhood (MB), appearing to go back on its endorsement of leading figure Mohamed El Baradei as a negotiator with Mubarak.

A spokesman for the MB, Mohamed Morsy, told the BBC: "The Muslim Brotherhood is much stronger than Mohamed El Baradei as a person. And we do not agree on he himself to become representing [sic] this movement, the movement is represented by itself, and it will come up with a committee... to make delegations with any government."

Sources: Ha'aretz, FT, WSJ, BBC News

For more news and expert analysis about Egypt, please see Egypt Politics & Security.