Split between the military and young activists more pronounced

The split between the military and the young activists seeking democratic reforms is becoming more pronounced. The gloves are off.

The two sides are more openly trading accusations. The fear among the democracy activists is that the military are in essence mounting a counter-revolution in association with former regime elements.

It is still not clear how much vision of the future the military really has and its role in shaping it. Its sudden embrace of the Muslim Brotherhood (MB) a partner is an extraordinary change of tack.

For its part, the mainstream MB has refrained from hostile criticism of the military. Not so its youth wing, which released a statement saying: “The military council is not the army but a council with a specific political mandate authorised by the people to run the country in this transitional period. The people have the right to keep it or banish the council."

The trouble is that there is no mechanism yet before elections to determine the will of the people.

For more news and expert analysis about Egypt, please see Egypt Politics & Security.

© 2011 Menas Associates

The MB remains the best organised of the opposition groups

Egypt is a very religiously observant country. But Egyptians practise their religion in different ways. There are different trends among the 90 per cent of the population who are Muslim which in recent days have clashed. Earlier in the year, there had been attacks on Christian churches. There have now been reports of the desecration of the shrines of Sufi saints, revered by millions in towns and the countryside. These Sufi practices, however, are regarded as un-Islamic and polytheistic by the more puritanical trend of Islamic thought now described as Salafist. Antagonism had long existed between the Sufi tariqas and the radical Salafists. But clashes between the groups, and fights among Muslims, had been rare.

The senior religious figure within the State structure, the Grand Mufti Ali Gomaa, appealed for restraint. “Calls that the shrines of the saints are against Islam stir up sedition among Muslims,” he said.

The Salafists have exploited Koranic satellite TV stations, some funded by Saudis, to propagate their vision of an Islamic world. And they have been entering more into the political arena. Salafists were active before the referendum on constitutional changes in declaring that a yes vote was a vote for Islam. And a Salafist sheikh evoked a word from the Islamic conquests in the years after the death of the Prophet Muhammad by calling the victory in the vote a ghazwah.

The best organised of the groups representing the Islamist trend remain the Muslim Brothers. They have successfully mobilised voters for previous elections and are set to do well in the elections in September. But they will be competing as much against the Salafists as against those secular voices who believe in a true separation of religion and politics.

For more news and expert analysis about Egypt, please see Egypt Politics & Security.

© 2011 Menas Associates

Egypt: The presidential elections will likewise be an irrelevance

The parliamentary elections are over. We shall see in the next few days how Egypt's rulers digest the results. President Hosni Mubarak is due to make one of those key speeches that will indicate what changes he will make. Given his record, these will be changes in personnel rather than in direction.

Constitutionally, the elections also pre-qualify parties now able to put forward candidates for the presidential elections due next year. Article 76 of the constitution stipulates that only parties with representatives in parliament or the Shura Council may submit candidates for the presidency. The opposition parties won barely a handful of seats between them but one seat is enough. As a result, eight parties will be able to nominate presidential candidates.

Besides the National Democratic Party (NDP), they are the liberal Wafd Party, the leftist Tagammu Party, and the smaller Ghad, Geel, Nasserist, Al-Salam and Social Justice parties. The Muslim Brotherhood (MB) is not a party so cannot field a candidate. Two individuals often thought to be hopefuls — Mohamed El Baradei and Omar Suleiman — are in theory barred because they are not members of such parties.

What the parliamentary elections have shown, however, is that the Egyptian authorities have scant regard for legal niceties in the determination of who should be their rulers. The elections were marred by widespread fraud, despite the denials of leading party leaders. The presidential elections will likewise be an irrelevance. The system in Egypt will throw up the person who will succeed President Mubarak at the appropriate time. The people will not have a say. It was ever thus.

For more news and expert analysis about Egypt, please see Egypt Politics & Security.

© 2010 Menas Associates

Egypt votes in second round of election amid allegations of fraud

Egypt has voted in a second round of parliamentary elections, a week after the first round was marred by violence and allegations of fraud. President Hosni Mubarak's ruling National Democratic Party (NDP) won almost all the seats in the first round, following withdrawal from the poll by the two main opposition groups.

The NDP has been accused of fixing the vote, but the party insists that the ballot was fair. The top two candidates in seats where no-one polled more than 50 per cent of the vote are supposed to contest the run-off.

But the NDP, which won 209 of the 222 seats decided in the first round, is expected to win all but a handful of the 287 seats that were up for grabs on Sunday.

The first round of voting attracted criticism from rights groups and the US, after videos of confrontations between the government and the opposition and pictures of ballot boxes being stuffed and destroyed began to circulate on the internet.

Experts wonder whether the result has any credibility as it looks like the outcome might leave Egypt a one-party state. The main opposition party, the Muslim Brotherhood (MB), pulled out of the second round as it failed to secure a single seat in the first round. The other opposition group, the liberal Wafd party, followed in MB's footsteps after winning just two seats.

The result of the parliamentary elections will no doubt have an affect on the presidential poll next year, but it is yet unclear whether President Mubarak will stand for re-election or look for a successor.

Source: BBC News

For more news and expert analysis about Egypt, please see Egypt Politics & Security.

Egypt: MB fears heavy loses in poll

The Muslim Brotherhood (MB), Egypt's biggest opposition party, has failed to win any seats outright in the first round of the parliamentary election. The group has accused the Egyptian government of rigging votes and said that a few of its candidates will stand in a run-off vote on 5th December.

"Only a few will stand in a run-off, but not a single Brotherhood candidate won in the first round," said, the head of the MB's bloc of 88 seats in the outgoing parliament, Saad al-Katatni.

Results of the poll are yet to be officially confirmed, but it appears that the losers include MB's leader in parliament. There were reports of protests and violence during Election Day, with many of the MB supporters prevented from casting their vote.

MB supporters and have spoken out against the Egyptian government, saying it has annihilated the multi-party system, compromised freedom of speech and the integrity of the elections. A spokesman for the party has warned that infringement of these rights will lead to more violence as achieving change by peaceful means becomes increasingly impossible.

The MB is officially prohibited from taking part in the elections; therefore its candidates stand as independents. The liberal New Wafd party also had no winners, with a handful of candidates going into run-offs. President Hosni Mubarak's National Democratic Party (NDP) is expected to win the majority of the votes. The new parliament will have 518 members, 508 of whom will be elected and 10 will be appointed by presidential decree.

Source: BBC News

For more news and expert analysis about Egypt, please see Egypt Politics & Security.

Egypt detains MB supporters

Egyptian police have detained over 70 people in Alexandria as they were putting up posters in support of the Muslim Brotherhood (MB). Speaking about the detention a police official said the posters breached a law against religious insignia for election campaign purposes. A spokesperson for MB counteracted the statement saying the posters for Egypt's governing party contained quotes from Koran yet remained untouched.

The MB is the biggest opposition movement in Egypt and has been banned since 1954. However, it won 20 per cent of the seats in parliament in 2005 by fielding candidates as independents. The group has since faced heavy censorship by the Egyptian government. MB's MP Hussein Ibrahim said the posters used commonplace terms including "God is great" and "Praise be to God" rather than slogans associated exclusively with the Islamist group or direct quotes from the Koran.

"This is the beginning of a blatant election fraud since the ruling party candidates' posters were left untouched although they contained full verses of the Koran," said Ibrahim.

Source: BBC News

For more news and expert analysis about Egypt, please see Egypt Politics & Security.

Muslim Brotherhood to run in poll

Egypt's banned opposition group the Muslim Brotherhood (MB) is expected to stand in a third of the seats in next month's parliamentary elections. The group won 20 per cent of the seats in parliament in 2005, but this time round MB said it would contest 169 of more than 500 seats available.

The group's success in the 2005 elections surprised the Egyptian government and it has since paid greater attention to the group's activities, aiming to curtail them by arresting some of the group's key figureheads. MB's leader Mohammed Badie said he wanted to encourage a more open and fair vote and added that if rigged it would cast a shadow over the 2011 presidential elections.

"We ask all Egyptians to stand firm against any attempt to rig the elections and we call on the government to ensure a fair election," said Badie.

It is yet unclear whether President Hosni Mubarak, who has ruled Egypt for 30 years, will stand for a sixth term in office. Former head of the International Atomic Energy Agency(IAEA), Mohamed ElBaradei, has worked with MB to achieve electoral reform and has argued that boycotting parliamentary elections would deny the government its power. However, a spokesperson for MB has said that the group believes that standing would provide a chance for a fairer Egypt.

Source: BBC News

For more news and expert analysis about Egypt, please see Egypt Politics & Security.