Egypt: More than a 1000 injured in violent clashes

Over a 1000 people were injured in the most violent clashes between police and demonstrators since the 18 days of protests that led to the fall of the former president Hosni Mubarak on 11th February.

A major rally was being planned for 8th July. But these protests snowballed from a demonstration demanding justice for the martyrs, i.e., the speedy trial of police officers accused of killing more than 800 people in the attempted suppression of protests in those 18 days in January and February. The demonstrations became a focal point for the general frustrations of many at the slow pace of reform.

Police fired tear gas and rubber bullets at protestors who attacked them with stones in Tahrir Square on 28th and 29th June. There had been other clashes at the Balloon Theatre in Agouza. Protestors called for officials accused of serious crimes to be tried without delay. Some also called for Field Marshal Muhammad Hussein Tantawi, head of the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces currently ruling Egypt, to step down.

These were the first violent clashes in Tahrir Square for some weeks. Protestors were met by riot police with full gear and water cannon. One blogger said the police had invoked one of the protest movement's own slogans when they used a loudhailer to tell the crowd “You say, selmiyya [peaceful], well keep it selmiyya”. It was anything but selmiyya.

The army council said in a statement on its Facebook page that “the regrettable events that have been taking place at Tahrir Square have no justification except to undermine stability and security in Egypt according to a calculated and coordinated plan in which the blood of the revolution's martyrs is used to cause a wedge between the revolutionaries and the security apparatus in Egypt to achieve these goals.

"We urge the great Egyptian people and the young people who launched the revolution not to be carried away by such claims, work on resisting and aborting them to maintain Egypt's security and safety in such difficult circumstances."

Its reaction showed how little it understands the frustration of those who want rapid reform.

The demonstrations in Tahrir Square followed clashes nearby outside the TV building at Maspero after the adjournment of the trial on 26th June of the former interior minister Habib ElAdly. He faces the death penalty if convicted of charges of ordering state security forces under his command to use live fire to crush the protests of January and February. The families of some of those killed hurled stones at police and military vehicles in frustration after the court adjourned the minister's trial.

For more news and expert analysis about Egypt, please see Egypt Politics & Security.

© 2011 Menas Associates

Egypt's referendum hailed as a success

An estimated 18.5 million, out of 45 million eligible voters, turned up for Saturday's [19th March] referendum. Organising commission chairman Mohammed Attiya said that 14 million Egyptians approved the constitutional amendments, and the remainder 4 million voted “no”.

Egyptian daily Al-Ahram said the referendum was a "win for democracy," a view that was seconded by the State owned Al-Gomhuria: "Everybody has won in this referendum, whether they voted yes or no."

Egypt's main opposition group, banned under former president Hosni Mubarak, the Muslim Brotherhood (MB), used its clout and organisational skills to crusade for a "yes" vote. The youth groups, largely responsible for ousting Mubarak, however, called for a “no” vote, saying that the deadlines set by the military were too tight and that the constitutional changes were simply too narrow.

The Coalition of the Revolution's Youth urged supporters to respect the result of the "historic democratic process" and posted the following statement on its Facebook page: "We are now on the doorstep of a new era, in which Egyptians will shape their state for decades to come... we must work to carry on fulfilling the ambitions of the revolution.”

US ambassador to Egypt Margaret Scobey said the referendum was "an important step towards realising the aspirations of the 25 January revolution".

Sources: AFP, BBC News, The Guardian

For more news and expert analysis about Egypt, please see Egypt Politics & Security.

Egypt’s Prime Minister resigns

Egypt's Supreme Council of the Armed Forces has released a statement saying that Prime Minister Ahmed Shafiq has resigned. The statement added that former transport minister, Essam Sharaf, is to replace Shafiq and form a new government.

Shafiq, a close alley of former president Hosni Mubarak, was appointed just days before Mubarak's resignation and is seen by the protesters as a remnant of the old regime. In a statement on Facebook, the Council said: "The Supreme Council of the Armed Forces decided to accept the resignation of Prime Minister Ahmed Shafiq and appointed Essam Sharaf to form the new government."

One of the protesters' demands has been the removal from office of all ministers associated with Mubarak, but it is unclear whether this will appease the activists calling for a "Day of Determination" on Friday. The protesters are demanding a new government and dissolution of state security, as well as a new constitution and a civilian council to aide the army.

Speaking about tomorrow's rally leading member of the Revolutionary Youth Coalition Zyad El-Elaimy said: “Tomorrow's protest was not just for Shafiq,” before adding it was “great” that the Council has “finally listened” to the people.

Sources: BBC News, NewsMax, Aljazeera Washington Post

For more news and expert analysis about Egypt, please see Egypt Politics & Security.

Egypt: The outcome of the uprising remains unclear

Ten days after protests began, the outcome remains unclear. What is plain, however, is that Egypt has experienced an unprecedented eruption of popular protest against the 30-year rule of President Mubarak — and that the regime is prepared to fight back.

The protests were sparked by the so called 'Jasmine Revolution' in Tunisia, which led to the departure of President Zein el Abdine Ben Ali.

The authorities in Egypt were caught unprepared. The protests were orchestrated by young, internet-savvy activists using Twitter and Facebook and other social networking sites.

The authorities responded by cutting off internet access to the outside world and blocking mobile phone signals. Google reacted by creating a novel form of Twitter by the ability to leave voicemail. An ominous note came from Google which announced that one of its senior executives, an Egyptian, had been missing since the riots began.

By the end of the week, internet services were being restored.

The protestors came from a dozen different groups, mostly secular, but all in different ways calling for the end to what they called a corrupt and repressive regime.

The main opposition movement, the Muslim Brotherhood, remained studiously silent at first, although there were Brotherhood sympathisers among the protestors from the outset.

It has played a shrewd political game positioning itself behind the scenes for a potential role in any future Egyptian government, particularly by backing Dr Mohamed El Baradei, the opposition figure who spends much of his time in Europe.

The group's manifesto is similar to that of most mainstream secular opposition, and contains no clear singular ideology. The group has said it does not believe in the concept of an 'Islamic State' but is working towards the formation of civil one, in which political forces work together regardless of political affiliations.

Two leading Muslim Brotherhood figures, Essam El Eyrian and Abu Fotouh, have said that the movement's goal has not been clearly transmitted to a global audience, creating moral panic in international diplomatic circles about the prospect of an Islamic takeover of Egypt.

For more news and expert analysis about Egypt, please see Egypt Politics & Security.

© 2010 Menas Associates

Egypt to hold an anti-government protest

Anti-government activists prepare to hold a day of protests across Egypt, inspired by the recent events in Tunisia. Organisers of the anti-government movement called on the Egyptian people to come together for a "day of revolt against torture, poverty, corruption and unemployment". Over 90,000 people have signed-up to participate in the protest, among them some members of the Muslim Brotherhood (MB). In a separate statement, however, the group has made clear that it would not officially participate in the protests.

The country's Interior Ministry issued a warning, ahead of the protests, saying that those demonstrating against the government would face outright arrest. The statement further explained that the country's “security apparatus will deal firmly and decisively with any attempt to break the law".

The organisers of the forthcoming protests are rallying people together on the Internet via Facebook, saying: “Our protest on the 25th is the beginning of the end… It is the end of silence, acquiescence and submission to what is happening in our country. It will be the start of a new page in Egypt's history - one of activism and demanding our rights."

The country's political opposition seems uncertain about the uprising with Mohamed El-Baradei encouraging Egyptians to take part, and the MB, who still remains the most powerful opposition movement, resorting to silence.

The social concerns and complains voiced by Tunisians, which led to the uprising, are echoed by the Egyptians, among them political corruption, high unemployment and an oppressive State. And much like in Tunisia, self immolation has hit record numbers in Egypt currently totalling at six. Over the last couple of weeks, Egypt has also seen a rise in young activists voicing their concerns about the shortcomings of the Egyptian government.

Sources: New York Times, BBC News, Reuters, Wall Street Journal

For more news and expert analysis about Egypt, please see Egypt Politics & Security.

Omar Mukhtar memorial creating tensions with the government

Discussion of the location of the Omar Mukhtar memorial has created severe tensions with the government which wants to minimise the hero status of Cyrenaica's most important freedom fighter.

The campaign in Benghazi to protect the site of religious significance is being backed by the use of Facebook as a means of mobilising technology for political dissent. Beyond the discussions about the memorial is the security services' anxiety about keeping firm control of external modern communication systems which cannot be intercepted in Libya.

There are websites that are very critical of the regime and more damagingly, have lampooned the Leader and his family who have been deeply angered by these attacks. It is unlikely, however, that overt opposition in the eastern province will disturb the government, although it is a warning that the grandiose plans developed by the Qadhafi family for the development of Cyrene – which is Libya's second most important archeological site after Leptis Magna - as a cultural and tourist centre might not be accepted without stout opposition.

In general, the political situation is calm and under the firm control of the security authorities. The Qadhafi family continues to have a tight grip on Libya's population. There remains a lack of leadership among the overseas opposition groups so that no obvious threat can be envisaged from that quarter.

For more news and expert analysis about Libya, please see Libya Focus and Libya Politics & Security.

© 2010 Menas Associates

General Babangida President Jonathan's biggest rival for PDP nomination

President Goodluck Jonathan formally declared his intention to stand for the presidency in 2011 at a rally in Abuja on 18th September amid indications that he is ahead of rivals in the delegate count for the ruling Peoples Democratic Party's (PDP) convention. His biggest challenger for the PDP nomination will be the former military head of state, General Ibrahim Badamosi Babangida (IBB).

Jonathan made his first public declaration of his intention to contest the 2011 Presidential elections through social networking site, Facebook. He made the announcement on

Wednesday 15th September in what appeared to be an attempt to divert attention from the Babangida's formal declaration on the same day in Abuja.

Informal polling in Nigeria suggests that Jonathan is likely to secure twice as many delegates to the PDP convention as IBB. The other likely PDP challengers who have declared – former vice president Atiku Abubakar and Kwarra State governor Bukola Saraki - are expected to collect a much smaller numbers of delegates, mostly from their home areas

To secure the PDP nomination, the winning candidate must secure 51per cent of the 3483 delegates at the convention. Jonathan's main stronghold is in a broad area of the south, while Babangida's support in concentrated in the north-west.

There is now the prospect of four northerners seeking the PDP nomination – Babangida, Atiku Abubakar, Bukola Saraki and the now former National Security Adviser (NSA) retired Lt-Gen Aliyu Mohammed Gusau. With no unified candidate from the northern region to oppose him President Jonathan therefore enjoys a considerable advantage.

Concern that divisions will cost 'the North' the presidency has prompted the establishment of a Northern Presidential Aspirants Committee to find a single northern candidate at October's PDP convention. The Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) timetable is for the presidential election to take place on 22nd January while the gubernatorial and state house of assembly elections will be on 29th January. The PDP presidential primaries are scheduled to take place in late October.

However, a number of official sources said holding the elections in January, as initially planned, might prove difficult due to the fact that election officials are looking for ways to delay the poll so they could work on a credible voters' roll.

For more news and expert analysis about Nigeria, please see Nigeria Focus and Nigeria Politics & Security.

© 2010 Menas Associates