Egypt: Polarisation leads to an escalation of casual violence

There have been 80 deaths in the last week in clashes between security forces and protesters and between pro- and anti-Morsi supporters in Cairo, Alexandria, Mansoura and other cities.

 

Both sides blame the other for causing the violence. The Muslim Brotherhood protesters say their movement is peaceful. It appears to be but there are well-documented exceptions. In the current febrile atmosphere these get widely circulated and feed into the rhetoric of the Brotherhood's enemies.

 

The army also rejected that it was responsible for the deaths in July, despite eyewitness accounts to the contrary.

 

Polarisation could affect the army. There is some concern within it that some soldiers might reject orders to fire against protesters. The Brotherhood has been calling on soldiers to stand shoulder-to-shoulder with it. Many ordinary Egyptian soldiers work an eight-hour day and return home in the evening and are thus not immune to all manner of political influences.

 

For more news and expert analysis about Egypt, please see Egypt Politics & Security.

 

© 2013 Menas Associates

Egypt: The outcome of the uprising remains unclear

Ten days after protests began, the outcome remains unclear. What is plain, however, is that Egypt has experienced an unprecedented eruption of popular protest against the 30-year rule of President Mubarak — and that the regime is prepared to fight back.

The protests were sparked by the so called 'Jasmine Revolution' in Tunisia, which led to the departure of President Zein el Abdine Ben Ali.

The authorities in Egypt were caught unprepared. The protests were orchestrated by young, internet-savvy activists using Twitter and Facebook and other social networking sites.

The authorities responded by cutting off internet access to the outside world and blocking mobile phone signals. Google reacted by creating a novel form of Twitter by the ability to leave voicemail. An ominous note came from Google which announced that one of its senior executives, an Egyptian, had been missing since the riots began.

By the end of the week, internet services were being restored.

The protestors came from a dozen different groups, mostly secular, but all in different ways calling for the end to what they called a corrupt and repressive regime.

The main opposition movement, the Muslim Brotherhood, remained studiously silent at first, although there were Brotherhood sympathisers among the protestors from the outset.

It has played a shrewd political game positioning itself behind the scenes for a potential role in any future Egyptian government, particularly by backing Dr Mohamed El Baradei, the opposition figure who spends much of his time in Europe.

The group's manifesto is similar to that of most mainstream secular opposition, and contains no clear singular ideology. The group has said it does not believe in the concept of an 'Islamic State' but is working towards the formation of civil one, in which political forces work together regardless of political affiliations.

Two leading Muslim Brotherhood figures, Essam El Eyrian and Abu Fotouh, have said that the movement's goal has not been clearly transmitted to a global audience, creating moral panic in international diplomatic circles about the prospect of an Islamic takeover of Egypt.

For more news and expert analysis about Egypt, please see Egypt Politics & Security.

© 2010 Menas Associates

Egypt: The presidential elections will likewise be an irrelevance

The parliamentary elections are over. We shall see in the next few days how Egypt's rulers digest the results. President Hosni Mubarak is due to make one of those key speeches that will indicate what changes he will make. Given his record, these will be changes in personnel rather than in direction.

Constitutionally, the elections also pre-qualify parties now able to put forward candidates for the presidential elections due next year. Article 76 of the constitution stipulates that only parties with representatives in parliament or the Shura Council may submit candidates for the presidency. The opposition parties won barely a handful of seats between them but one seat is enough. As a result, eight parties will be able to nominate presidential candidates.

Besides the National Democratic Party (NDP), they are the liberal Wafd Party, the leftist Tagammu Party, and the smaller Ghad, Geel, Nasserist, Al-Salam and Social Justice parties. The Muslim Brotherhood (MB) is not a party so cannot field a candidate. Two individuals often thought to be hopefuls — Mohamed El Baradei and Omar Suleiman — are in theory barred because they are not members of such parties.

What the parliamentary elections have shown, however, is that the Egyptian authorities have scant regard for legal niceties in the determination of who should be their rulers. The elections were marred by widespread fraud, despite the denials of leading party leaders. The presidential elections will likewise be an irrelevance. The system in Egypt will throw up the person who will succeed President Mubarak at the appropriate time. The people will not have a say. It was ever thus.

For more news and expert analysis about Egypt, please see Egypt Politics & Security.

© 2010 Menas Associates

Egypt: MB fears heavy loses in poll

The Muslim Brotherhood (MB), Egypt's biggest opposition party, has failed to win any seats outright in the first round of the parliamentary election. The group has accused the Egyptian government of rigging votes and said that a few of its candidates will stand in a run-off vote on 5th December.

"Only a few will stand in a run-off, but not a single Brotherhood candidate won in the first round," said, the head of the MB's bloc of 88 seats in the outgoing parliament, Saad al-Katatni.

Results of the poll are yet to be officially confirmed, but it appears that the losers include MB's leader in parliament. There were reports of protests and violence during Election Day, with many of the MB supporters prevented from casting their vote.

MB supporters and have spoken out against the Egyptian government, saying it has annihilated the multi-party system, compromised freedom of speech and the integrity of the elections. A spokesman for the party has warned that infringement of these rights will lead to more violence as achieving change by peaceful means becomes increasingly impossible.

The MB is officially prohibited from taking part in the elections; therefore its candidates stand as independents. The liberal New Wafd party also had no winners, with a handful of candidates going into run-offs. President Hosni Mubarak's National Democratic Party (NDP) is expected to win the majority of the votes. The new parliament will have 518 members, 508 of whom will be elected and 10 will be appointed by presidential decree.

Source: BBC News

For more news and expert analysis about Egypt, please see Egypt Politics & Security.