Libya's 2014 Budget is finally passed

On 22 June the long awaited 2014 Budget originally submitted to the Congress in January by the then Prime Minister, Ali Zidan, was passed. This came as a surprise to some Congress members who had expected to debate the issue in a session on the 22 June. Having waited almost all day for there to be enough members present to reach 94 - the required number of members present to be able to hold an official consultative session - the Congress was told that the budget had been passed on a technicality.

As Libya Politics & Security – 16.06.14 explained, the Al-Thanni government declared last week that the Congress had 120 days from the budget’s initial submission to debate the law, after which time the government had the right to issue a financial mandate to ratify it. Al-Thanni therefore scored a bit of a coup by getting the law passed in this way, despite the fact that certain Congress members were keen for the budget to be reduced. 

The Central Bank may, however, still object to the budget being passed in this fashion, although it is not clear whether it has a legal right to do so. The budget stands at LD56.5 billion (US$45 billion). Given the crisis in revenues caused by the disruptions at the oil ports, a significant portion of this money is expected to come from a reserve fund at the Central Bank that was set up by Colonel Qadhafi as a fund for future generations. Whether the Central Bank will agree to this fund being used also remains open to question. 

It is clear, however, that Libya cannot fund itself from oil revenues alone. The budget committee in the Congress based the 2014 budget on a projected annual oil production of 600,000 b/d but the country has clearly fallen woefully short of this. Thus drawing on this LD16 billion fund, plus some of the central bank’s foreign reserves, therefore seems to be the only solution.

For more news and expert analysis about Libya, please see Libya Focus and Libya Politics & Security.

© 2014 Menas Associates

Saadi Qadhafi extradited to Libya

Saadi Qadhafi, the third son of Libya’s deposed dictator Muammar Qadhafi, was extradited early today from neighbouring Niger back to Libya. According to a statement posted on the government’s official Facebook page, Saadi is currently being held in the high-security Hadaba Prison in Tripoli.

"The Libyan Government thanks the President of the Republic of Niger, Mahamadou Issoufou, we also thank the Niger Government and the people of Niger for their cooperation with the Libyan Government in pledging its commitment to the treatment of the accused on the principles of justice and international norms in dealing with prisoners. God save Libya.”

Unofficial pictures were also released by the government-backed militia holding the businessman and former professional footballer, allegedly showing Saadi dressed in a blue prison uniform having his head shaved. There is a high likelihood that he will face the death penalty.

Libya has been seeking his extradition since he fled to Niger in the wake of the 2011 NATO-backed uprising that ousted his father. Niamey had previously refused to hand over Saadi around the time of the first anniversary of the February uprising because they feared he would be executed if he returned to Libya. A government spokesperson for the Nigerien authorities, Marou Amadou, said that it would only extradite Saadi “to a government which has an independent and impartial justice system”.

Following this request from Tripoli, Niger’s President Mahamadou Issoufou said any extradition requests would be viewed on strict legal merits alone, without referring specifically to the Saadi case. He had originally been granted asylum in November 2011 on humanitarian grounds, shortly after Interpol issued a warrant for his arrest in connection with allegations of forcefully misappropriated property and armed intimidation when he was head of the Libyan Football Federation. As a member of the ICC, Niger was obliged to extradite Qadhafi.

Saadi’s extradition is a real coup for the Libyan authorities. He was one of the most hated figures in the Qadhafi regime and arguably the most disliked of all Qadhafi’s sons. He had a reputation for being exceptionally brutal and is remembered in Benghazi particularly for his bulldozing of the Al-Ahli SC (Benghazi) stadium in an act of revenge after his football team, Al-Ahli SC (Tripoli), lost to the opposing side.

There is likely to be ongoing jubilation in Libya at the news. Congress is congratulating the families of the martyrs and the revolutionaries and is thanking Niger. This will serve as a reminder to a deeply troubled country of why they launched the uprising in the first place. 

For more news and expert analysis about Libya, please see Libya Focus and Libya Politics & Security.

© 2014 Menas Associates

Libya: Political Exclusion Law Committee finally gets going

 

The 77-member Committee of Applying the Standards of Taking Up Public Posts, the body tasked with implementing the political exclusion law, has begun its work in earnest. This week, the committee, comprising mainly those who were part of the old Integrity Committee, summoned 11 members of the Congress to inform them that the Political Exclusion Law applies to them.

Four of these 11 have already attended committee sessions and all demanded that they be given one week to prove that the law is not applicable to them. It appears that the committee granted them their request and that they will all have the chance to defend themselves. The remaining seven from this first batch are due to attend hearings with the committee this coming week.

 

This first group is clearly just the tip of the iceberg and represents the first set of cases that the committee had been able to work its way through. According to the committee, out of 200 Congress members, so far only 98 of them have actually completed and handed in the compulsory forms distributed by the committee that oblige members to provide details of their past. Implementation of the law is clearly going to be a long, drawn-out process.

 

For more news and expert analysis about Libya, please see Libya Focus and Libya Politics & Security.

© 2013 Menas Associates

Libya: Ahmed Ibrahim sentenced to death

This week, the former Qadhafi loyalist and regime stalwart, Ahmed Ibrahim, was sentenced to death by a Misrata court. Ibrahim, who held a variety of posts under the former regime, including Education Secretary and more recently, Head of the World Centre for Research and Studies of the Green Book, was a close confidant of the former Leader and had a fearsome reputation as an uncompromising defender of Qadhafi's ideology. He was also a prominent member of the feared Revolutionary Committees Movement.

 

Ibrahim and five others were found guilty by the Misrata Appeals Court of killing members of a family in Sirte prior to the town's liberation. Ibrahim was also found guilty of undermining national security and plotting to kill civilians.

 

Ibrahim is the first senior Qadhafi-era official to have been handed the death sentence. Although the sentence will have to be upheld by the Supreme Court before it can be carried out, the passing of execution sets a worrying precedent for others awaiting trial. The move was strongly criticised by Amnesty International, which warned that “hundreds of former soldiers and supporters of Colonel Muammar Qadhafi are at increased risk of the death penalty” in light of the ruling.

 

For more news and expert analysis about Libya, please see Libya Focusand Libya Politics & Security.

 

© 2013 Menas Associates

Libya: Cross border security problems continue

Unrest in Libya continues to have implications for its Western neighbours. The borders with both Algeria and Tunisia have long been primary smuggling routes. In the past, it was mainly drugs, cigarettes and illegal migrants being smuggled north, via Libya, to the Mediterranean coast but, since the revolution, it also includes Libyan weapons being smuggled out of the country to the Sahel.

The Algerian security forces have greatly increased their cross border surveillance activities in an attempt to reduce the smuggling of weapons. A recent operation apprehended a small group, including one Libyan, which was carrying 32 weapons and 14,000 rounds of ammunition stolen from Libyan army supplies. Unsurprisingly, the majority of the smuggled material comes from the Qadhafi era. Special Algerian units have been formed to supervise movements in this area and sophisticated night-time surveillance equipment is now in use.

Meanwhile, the difficulties which arose at the Salloum crossing from Egypt into Libya on 24 September have been temporarily resolved. A long tailback of traffic, held up by the Libyans, was only allowed through after threats of reprisals by the Egyptian security agents. The border remains open but the situation remains unstable.

The Egyptian authorities have arrested members of a Cairo-based gang which was forging visas for entry into Libya and other fake documentation. The report suggests that the visas were selling for LD2000 (US$1600). For would-be economic migrants the illegal transfer from Egypt into Libya could provide opportunities for work there or for onward passage into Europe via Italy or Malta. This journey is said to be undertaken by several thousand individuals each year and the latest arrests noted above will do little to stem the flow.

For more news and expert analysis about Libya, please see Libya Focus and Libya Politics & Security.

© 2012 Menas Associates

Wild celebration following Mu'atassim Qadhafi's reported capture in Sirte

Tonight there is wild celebratory gunfire throughout Tripoli and Benghazi as rumours spread that Mu'atassim Qadhafi - the Leader's fourth son and former National Security Advisor - has been captured in Sirte.

It was confirmed by some members of the National Transitional Council (NTC) that Mu'atassim, who was apparently leading the Qadhafi loyalists' defence of Sirte, was flown to Benghazi earlier today. It has not yet, however, been officially confirmed and there must be concern that this may turn out to be another premature and embarrassing mistake like the one when Saif al-Islam was incorrectedly said to have been captured. Despite his brutal past Mu'atassim is not on the International Criminal Court's wanted list so he will presumably be tried in Libya if he has indeed been captured.

It is believed that his elder brother Saif al-Islam, who was also his principal rival to succeed their father, may still be in Bani Walid which has been beseiged by the interim government for many weeks. If this is true then his capture can only be a matter of time.

Meanwhile, it is thought that Colonel Mu'ammar Qadhafi himself is somewhere in south-west Libya near the Algerian border.

For more news and expert analysis about Libya, please see Libya Focus and Libya Politics & Security.

© 2011 Menas Associates

NTC launches new offensive on Sirte

National Transitional Council (NTC) forces have launched another offensive on the pro Colonel Mu'ammar Qadhafi town of Sirte. Rocket and tank fire bombarded the town after two days of on-land fighting.

It is estimated that hundreds more people have fled Sirte, but humanitarian workers believe thousands remain in the city unable or unwilling to leave. In the south, more than 1,200 African migrants are being evacuated to Chad.

NTC forces have taken up most of their artillery in order to try and take control of the town and Qadhafi's loyalists, who have resisted their efforts for the last three weeks.

It has been reported by the BBC that NTC forces are having trouble advancing, and have no idea how long the capture might take. BBC's Jonathan Head said: “There is no sign the government fighters have a plan to break through… When they get to the centre of Sirte, what they will face is fighting from building to building, and opponents who have proved to be very accurate with their weapons and very determined in their resistance.”

Hundreds of residents left the town in overcrowded vehicles, but it is believed that thousands of others remain, some wounded, some without basic provisions, some too petrified to leave their homes.

Sirte is one of the few remaining of Qadhafi's stronghold's and also his birthplace. The whereabouts of Qadhafi remain unknown. A NATO official has denied reports that a NATO helicopter was shot down over the city.

Sources: Reuters, BBC News, Bloomberg

For more news and expert analysis about Libya, please see Libya Focus and Libya Politics & Security.

Libya's extreme south

Since the fall of Tripoli in April, it had been widely assumed that Sebha, a Qadhafi stronghold in Libya's extreme south, could become a major redoubt for Qadhafi's retreating forces. However, around 20 September, a spokesman for the rebel forces, Colonel Ahmed Omar Bani , reported that rebel forces controlled as much as 70 per cent of Sebha. At the time, this was met with some incredulity, especially as the rebels had made some premature claims of military victory. However on 22nd September, National Transitional Council (NTC) fighters claimed to have overrun the whole city and taken wholly into their own hands.

There were no signs of either Qadhafi or his son Saif al-Islam being in the town, as many had believed.

Similarly, two or three days later, reports were received that rebels had entered Traghan, the centre of the oasis complex just south of Sebha, and found no sign of Qadhafi or his sons, as had also been thought likely. There is for now no further information on why Sebha appears to have fallen so quickly and with such little resistance.

Although it has always been regarded as a Qadhafi stronghold, there is much suppressed opposition to him in the town and the region, and it is possible that this opposition was able to make its presence felt. Alternatively, it may well be that remaining Qadhafi forces in the city retreated farther south, perhaps along the Wadi al Ajal to the Oubari region or farther on to Ghat or the Traghan oasis complex, or possibly into Niger Of course, it is conceivable that the bulk of Qadhafi's forces in Sebha could have been brought farther north several weeks earlier to reinforce resistance in places such as Bani Walid.

For more news and expert analysis about Libya, please see Libya Focus and Libya Politics & Security.

For more news and expert analysis about the Sahara region, please see Sahara Focus.

© 2011 Menas Associates

Libya: A stabilisation plan

With the assistance of a cadre of international consultants and advisers, the NTC is drawing up stabilisation plans for the period immediately after Qadhafi is removed from power.

According to one source who recently returned from Benghazi, advisers from Abu Dhabi may have helped to draft an oil stabilisation docu­ment that has reportedly entered circulation, although it has not yet been made public. The same source said that engineers from Abu Dhabi – possibly from the Abu Dhabi National Oil Cor­poration (Adnoc) – might be drafted in to help repair the damage to the Sarir and Mesla fields.

The NTC's representative in the UK, Guma El-Gamaty, told a recent briefing organised by Brit­ish Expertise that the immediate post-conflict priorities were the stabilisation of Tripoli and the establishment of security. 'We don't want people taking revenge,' he said. Immediately after this, the NTC will act to make cash available and to provide essential services such as healthcare, water, electricity, and basic amenities. 'Many people have not been paid for three to four months,' he added.

Although the successor government will eventually be able to claim title to an impressive amount of wealth, it is questionable how much of the sovereign wealth outside Libya will be immediately available. The process of unfreezing funds in the EU and the US may take time. El-Gamaty said that $40 billion may be located in various African coun­tries. 'We are not sure if all of it is frozen.'

For more news and expert analysis about Libya, please see Libya Focus and Libya Politics & Security.

© 2011 Menas Associates

The situation in Libya has serious ramifications for the country's borders

The rapidly evolving situation in Libya will have a number of important regional and international ramifications for the country's borders and the flow of people who have left, or are trying to leave, its territory.

More than 75,000 people have now entered Tunisia from Libya; mostly Egyptian migrant workers. On March 2nd, The Independent reported that up to 20,000 Egyptian, Bangladeshi, Chinese and Iranian workers have attempted to leave Libya (which is estimated to host 1.5 million migrants from other states including Pakistan, Sudan, the Philippines and Nepal). The crossing system collapsed yesterday when, according to Robert Fisk, thousands of mostly Arab men "fought with local Tunisians who . . . attacked them with stakes and iron bars”. The bottleneck was caused by a lack of transport to the migrants' home countries, and thousands remain stranded on the Libyan side, without access to food, water and sanitation.

The Wall Street Journal wrote that "an additional 70,000 people, mostly Egyptians, have crossed into Egypt from Libya, according to the International Organization for Migration." Five to seven thousand are stranded in the border area between Libya and Egypt at Saloum. The Egyptian authorities will not permit those without valid documentation to enter Egypt, and many are without basic provisions.

UN OCHA reported that thousands are stranded at Benghazi port and that the International Organisation for Migration (IOM) is preparing for the arrival of around 2,000 nationals of varied nationalities who have managed to cross the southern Libyan border in the Gatrone region.

Sources: The Independent, The Wall Street Journal, UN OCHA, The Daily Telegraph

For more news and expert analysis about Libya, please see Libya Focus and Libya Politics & Security.

Libya: New phase of nationalism gaining ground

There are signs of a new phase of nationalism gaining ground; an enhanced mood of pro-Arab and anti-foreign sentiment. It appears to spring from Colonel Qadhafi's old ideas on the role of the State and the ownership of the factors of production by the people. Such views are, as expected, welcome to the Old Guard and to the revolutionary committee movement. In essence, the ambition of the conservative right is the salvation of the Jamahiriya and with it, the concentration of economic power in the hands of the State.

Among the current sectors feeling some of the cold draught of growing nationalism is the banking quarter, where the regime appears to be caught in two minds about its future expansion. Saif al-Islam and his colleagues see the banking sector as an important backstop for the provision of credit to the private sector and want this task accomplished by private banking operations. Despite this, the banking privatisation programme has been considerably reduced in recent months.

The allocation of banking licences permitting the opening of new joint ventures has been distorted by the acquisition of a large stake in Italy's UniCredit on grounds of private interest by the Leader and Italy's Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi.

The delay in granting a banking license to a second foreign bank, which was promised and forecast by the government earlier in the year, gives some credence to the belief among the banking community that the gains in efficiency and honesty in the banking system are not the regime's principal aims. Foreign companies operating in Libya will benefit from some of the banking reforms that have been recently achieved but a dramatic dedication to any continuing improvement cannot be guaranteed.

For more news and expert analysis about Libya, please see Libya Focus and Libya Politics & Security.

© 2010 Menas Associates

Libya to receive aid from EU

Libya was offered up to €60 million over three years by the European Commission this month in order to help it deal with the problem of illegal immigration. This sum is a drop in the ocean compared to the €5 billion Qadhafi demanded during his recent visit to Italy.

However, Libya agreed to the sum under the border management deal that was struck during a visit by EU commissioners to Libya in early October. According to an EU spokesperson, under the agreement the money will be spent on assisting migrants and refugees (although Libya still does not recognise refugees or have any asylum policy), promoting better manage¬ment of migration, and funding initiatives related to border surveillance.

This deal does not mean that Libya will drop its demands for more cash in order to deal with the problem. Foreign Affairs Secretary Musa Kusa reiterated to the EU officials during their visit that 'Libya is asking the EU for €5 billion per annum to definitively stop clandestine emigra¬tion to Europe.'

Meanwhile, Libya has invested in a $28 million coastal radar system to monitor its coastline. The system, which has been provided by marine technology supplier Transas Marine, will cover almost 2,000 km and is expected to be installed within 16 months.

For more news and expert analysis about Libya, please see Libya Focus and Libya Politics & Security.

© 2010 Menas Associates