Libya's institutions under pressure as elections draw closer

There is continuing disintegration of Libya's institutions as the elections come closer and pressure grows for as many of the electorate as possible to participate in the ballot.

On paper the spread of support for regional semi-autonomy is a damaging departure for those who wish for a simple majority to settle the issue across the country. Most of the support, however, for the federalists remains in the hands of the people of the east and in one or two other enclaves. Those who would not contemplate the division of the national territory merely to satisfy discrete groups and other dissenters will remain strongly in support of a unitary power base. Fortunately there is just about sufficient backing for a parliamentary or Islamist solution within the new constitution to give some strength of belief in the likelihood of a national vote without a federal component.

The strains produced by the confrontation of political parties and individuals taking part in the elections will produce a great deal of tension which could, at time, be violent. Mustafa Abdel Jalil has the ability to keep the aims of the National Transitional Council (NTC) strictly on target but, if he fails in this, then flash points of considerable proportions will exist.

An immediate threat to the NTC is the persistence of the militia groups who are still heavily armed and assertive. They have the potential to disrupt events surrounding the election and the regime itself is powerless to stop them.

For more news and expert analysis about Libya, please see Libya Focus and Libya Politics & Security.

© 2012 Menas Associates

Libyan leader visits Algiers

Libya's National Transitional Council (NTC) leader Mustafa Abdel Jalil and fellow NTC member, Salem Messaoud Kenane, arrived in Algiers on Sunday 15 April for a two day visit. At the end of talks on Monday 16 April, Abdel Jalil said that he was confident that Algeria would not shelter anyone who poses a threat to his country, in a reference to Mu'ammar Qadhafi's family members who were granted asylum by Algiers.

"We appreciate the humanitarian position of Algeria for hosting the families, including women and children, but we are convinced that it would not shelter those who represent a threat for Libya's security," said Abdel Jalil after meeting President Abdelaziz Bouteflika. He went on to say: "We agreed that what constitutes a threat for Libya through financing or through subversion would not have a place in the Algerian territory."

Several of Qadhafi family members, including his widow Safiya, firebrand daughter Aisha, and sons Mohamed and Hannibal, fled to Algeria in late August. Algeria has twice had to reprimand Aisha for calling on Libyans to revolt against the transitional council which overthrew her father. Libya has been calling for the repatriation of Aisha and other members of the Qadhafi clan. According to media reports, however, Abdel Jalil does not appear to have publicly made such a request during his visit to Algiers.

Instead he underlined the "deep historic relations" between the two countries. In a joint statement quoted by the Algerian Press Service (APS) the Libyan and Algerian officials agreed to cooperate on security issues and fight extremism. The cooperation will include the fight against organised crime, arms and drug trafficking, clandestine migration and smuggling. How effective such cooperation will fare in practice is highly debatable, especially as security in Libya's southern and many other border regions is seemingly in the hands of militias whose loyalty to and concern for any central authority is highly questionable.

For more news and expert analysis about Algeria, please see Algeria Focus and Algeria Politics & Security.

© 2012 Menas Associates

Libya: Clashes between rival factions leave seven dead

According to numerous reports, seven people have been killed in confrontations between rival factions in the coastal city of Zawiya. Rival groups have been fighting for an area previously controlled by Colonel Mu'ammar Qadhafi.

The National Transitional Council (NTC) has said that the conflict has been resolved, however, many are concerned about the country's stability. Libya is replete with weapons and highly armed groups, who fought in the rebellion against Qadhafi's 40 year rule.

Interim leader Mustafa Abdul-Jalil said the NTC had brought together the elders from the feuding areas in order to resolve the conflict. Speaking about the issue on Sunday 13th November he said: "I want to assure the Libyan people that everything is under control."

Despite reassurances, witnesses claim that fighting in some areas is still ongoing. According to various reports, trouble flared up on Thursday 10th Novemenr when fighters from Warshefana set up a checkpoint on a highway near Zawiya, challenging other fighters from the city.

Jalil said the trouble had been started by "young men behaving irresponsibly" and that the NTC had established a committee to address the grievances of both sides. NTC leaders have said they cannot quickly disarm the various factions across the country.

Sources: BBC News, WST, AP

For more news and expert analysis about Libya, please see Libya Focus and Libya Politics & Security.

Heritage strikes first deal

Heritage Oil Corporation , the London Stock Exchange-listed oil exploration company, has made a bold step into the Libyan market. In early October, it struck the first major post- Colonel Mu'aamar Qadhafi business deal by buying a majority stake in the well-connected Benghazi-based Sahara Oil Services Holdings , which was established in April 2009 and has an operational yard and equipment based in Benghazi.

The company announced on a 4th October that it had bought a 51 per cent stake in Sahara for $19.5 million. It said that Sahara 'has the necessary long-term permits and licences to provide onshore and offshore oil field services in Libya as well as the rights to own and operate oil and gas licences.'

Heritage said that it was 'looking to play a significant role in the future development of the oil and gas industry in Libya' and that it was 'exploring ways to assist the National Transitional Council (NTC) and the state oil companies to rehabilitate certain of their existing fields and recommence production.' The deal was a characteristically aggressive step by the company, whose charismatic CEO is Tony Buckingham . Before he became an oil man in 1999, he was the inspiration behind the foundation of the famous Africa-focused private security company Sandline International .

A number of sources have told Libya Focus that Heritage had been attempting to provide oil field security services to the NTC. The NTC rejected its proposal, along with those of many other private security providers. Its position is that all security and all armed personnel in Libya must be Libyan. Having found a Libyan partner, Heritage may have overcome this initial hurdle. In his statement, Buckingham said that Heritage via Sahara was 'uniquely positioned to pursue field rehabilitation activities and be awarded exploration and production licences.' He described the acquisition as 'consistent with Heritage's first mover strategy of entering regions with vast hydrocarbon wealth where we have a strategic advantage. Ongoing discussions with the NTC and other stakeholders continue to highlight opportunities with the potential to transform Heritage.'

The company has established a base in Benghazi in the past five months and says it 'has been in discussions with senior members of the National Transitional Council, the National Oil Corporation, and certain subsidiaries.' According to a report in Petroleum Economist , Heritage is represented in Libya by Christian Sweeting , who has lobbied Foreign Secretary William Hague to expedite visa applications from four Sahara employees to visit the UK. Hague did not get involved.

For more news and expert analysis about Libya, please see Libya Focus and Libya Politics & Security.

© 2011 Menas Associates

Libya: A mass grave found within the grounds of Abu Salim prison

According to Libya's National Transitional Council (NTC) a mass grave thought to contain up to 1,2700 human bodies has been found in the country's capital city of Tripoli. It is believed that the remains are of prisoners killed by security troops in 1996 in the Abu Salim prison.

The protests against Colonel Mu'ammar Qadhafi, who ruled Libya for 42 years, began as a demand to release the lawyer who represented the families of the prisoners.

NTC said it unearthed the site, a desert field scattered with bone fragments within the grounds of the Abu Salim prison, after questioning prison guards who had worked there when the prisoners were killed after protesting against their conditions.

It has been reported that several family members have visited the site, where excavations are set to begin shortly. Up to now, little has been known about the circumstance in which the prisoners died.

A few eyewitnesses spoke to the BBC about the fact that those killed were executed in their cells by grenades and sustained gunfire after a protest. Officials in the new government say they will need foreign forensic help to determine the circumstances of their deaths.

Sources: BBC News, Reuters, Bloomberg

For more news and expert analysis about Libya, please see Libya Focus and Libya Politics & Security.

Libya: A stabilisation plan

With the assistance of a cadre of international consultants and advisers, the NTC is drawing up stabilisation plans for the period immediately after Qadhafi is removed from power.

According to one source who recently returned from Benghazi, advisers from Abu Dhabi may have helped to draft an oil stabilisation docu­ment that has reportedly entered circulation, although it has not yet been made public. The same source said that engineers from Abu Dhabi – possibly from the Abu Dhabi National Oil Cor­poration (Adnoc) – might be drafted in to help repair the damage to the Sarir and Mesla fields.

The NTC's representative in the UK, Guma El-Gamaty, told a recent briefing organised by Brit­ish Expertise that the immediate post-conflict priorities were the stabilisation of Tripoli and the establishment of security. 'We don't want people taking revenge,' he said. Immediately after this, the NTC will act to make cash available and to provide essential services such as healthcare, water, electricity, and basic amenities. 'Many people have not been paid for three to four months,' he added.

Although the successor government will eventually be able to claim title to an impressive amount of wealth, it is questionable how much of the sovereign wealth outside Libya will be immediately available. The process of unfreezing funds in the EU and the US may take time. El-Gamaty said that $40 billion may be located in various African coun­tries. 'We are not sure if all of it is frozen.'

For more news and expert analysis about Libya, please see Libya Focus and Libya Politics & Security.

© 2011 Menas Associates