Libya: Cross border security problems continue

Unrest in Libya continues to have implications for its Western neighbours. The borders with both Algeria and Tunisia have long been primary smuggling routes. In the past, it was mainly drugs, cigarettes and illegal migrants being smuggled north, via Libya, to the Mediterranean coast but, since the revolution, it also includes Libyan weapons being smuggled out of the country to the Sahel.

The Algerian security forces have greatly increased their cross border surveillance activities in an attempt to reduce the smuggling of weapons. A recent operation apprehended a small group, including one Libyan, which was carrying 32 weapons and 14,000 rounds of ammunition stolen from Libyan army supplies. Unsurprisingly, the majority of the smuggled material comes from the Qadhafi era. Special Algerian units have been formed to supervise movements in this area and sophisticated night-time surveillance equipment is now in use.

Meanwhile, the difficulties which arose at the Salloum crossing from Egypt into Libya on 24 September have been temporarily resolved. A long tailback of traffic, held up by the Libyans, was only allowed through after threats of reprisals by the Egyptian security agents. The border remains open but the situation remains unstable.

The Egyptian authorities have arrested members of a Cairo-based gang which was forging visas for entry into Libya and other fake documentation. The report suggests that the visas were selling for LD2000 (US$1600). For would-be economic migrants the illegal transfer from Egypt into Libya could provide opportunities for work there or for onward passage into Europe via Italy or Malta. This journey is said to be undertaken by several thousand individuals each year and the latest arrests noted above will do little to stem the flow.

For more news and expert analysis about Libya, please see Libya Focus and Libya Politics & Security.

© 2012 Menas Associates

Libya: Most imams are opposed to Islamic extremism

Given the problems the Libyan regime is experiencing in arranging the current political balance – more or less one of tension followed by negative actions – it is imperative that the establishment of the election proceeds without any major disruption. Any hiatus arising from the activities of the militias or major political shifts by players in the elections will be viewed by the majority of the Libyan people as another government failure.

Of great assistance to the regime is the fairly consistent advice from the imams that honest Libyans should baulk at the disruptive activities of extremists. This message has been put out in direct and simple language through the mosques although, as yet, there is no guidance available as to the relative importance of these main religious leaders.

In an interview, Minister of Religious Endowments Dr Hamza Abu Faris stressed the importance of opposing the hostile movements controlled by the Islamic fundamentalists. Faris, like many Libyans who were educated at serious Islamic schools, takes a much more philosophical view concerning the entry into the country of non-Islamic workers, and is content to endorse the response of the average Libyan against the Islamists, as do most of the imams who are working in the country.

The religious establishment, rather like the National Transitional Council (NTC), is anxious for the country to avoid civil war and the Islamist terrorist attacks that occur elsewhere in places such as Iraq, Afghanistan and now Syria. It is very aware that, throughout the long battle for the control of Libya, religion has not played a damaging or divisive role and that there are real causes for discomfort which must be faced if the country adopts a radical Islamist programme. The imams would like to see Libya escape without a fully-fledged civil war.

For more news and expert analysis about Libya, please see Libya Focus and Libya Politics & Security.

© 2012 Menas Associates

NTC appoints a new prime minister

A necessary period of adjustment is taking place in Libya. With the death of Mu'ammar Qadhafi and the declaration of liberation, this period of transition was inevitable. What remains unclear is how the National Transitional Council (NTC) will respond to the challenge of re-establishing Libya both domestically and within the international arena.

On 31st October, the NTC announced the appointment of Dr Abdel-Rahim al-Keib to the post of prime minister. He will face the task of forming a government and a new cabinet to oversee the country until elections are held. Currently, it is planned that elections will take place within eight months.

Al-Keib is well regarded as an even-tempered and pleasant academic who has worked as a professor of electrical engineering internationally for some years. Although he has served in several short-term academic programmes in Libya, most of his teaching has been overseas, which means he has had little to do with Libyan politics and Qadhafi's regime. He has also served as an adviser on Libya and has acted as a private sector entrepreneur. Al-Keib thus has a broad grounding in the applied technical field.

His contribution is expected to come from his mediation efforts, which he will be required to put to use if his government is to move along the constitutional settlement process. His family originates from Tripoli but he has roots in Sabrata. He is, therefore, not without knowledge of the tribal difficulties, and should be able to play a positive part in this area of change.

One of the major hurdles that his cabinet will have to overcome in establishing security and stability is the armed militia groups who had been united in their drive to oust Qadhafi. With scant central command, there has been little direction of revolutionary fighters returning from battle or protecting their liberated cities. Despite reported efforts to arrange a military chain of command, it would appear that none such has yet been established.

For more news and expert analysis about Libya, please see Libya Focus and Libya Politics & Security.

© 2011 Menas Associates

Qadhafi forces continue to fight against resurgent rebels

Despite the speed with which matters seem to have moved in the last few weeks, elements from the Qadhafi regime continue to fight against the resurgent rebels. Loyalists are still fighting in parts of Tripoli and in the Qadhafi strongholds of Sirte and Sebha, which remain loyal to the regime. Pro-Qadhafi control is so strong in Sirte that rebel leaders have attempted to negotiate with the town rather than launch an all-out attack.

The whereabouts of Qadhafi is still a matter for debate. On 27th August, Associated Press announced that it had received a telephone call from his spokesman Musa Ibrahim. He claimed to have seen “Brother Leader” on 26th August, and said that he was carrying an offer from the Colonel to negotiate with the rebel leadership over a transitional government. The National Transitional Council (NTC) representatives have shown no interest in this overture.

The NTC has offered a reward of US$1,300,000 for anyone capturing Qadhafi. An amnesty has also been offered to anyone, including his supporters, who kills or detains the Leader.

Current speculations on Qadhafi's whereabouts are as follows:

There is a possibility that he is still in Tripoli, perhaps having utilised the many underground passages underneath his Bab al-Azizya compound
There is also a chance that Qadhafi has been in Sirte, or more likely in Sebha, for some time and is, together with his sons, directing resistance from there.
The latest rumour put forward by a former head of the special forces, Adbel Salam al-Hasi, was that the Leader has taken up a role with his Tuareg followers in the south western desert region of Fezzan, near the Algerian border.

For more news and expert analysis about Libya, please see Libya Focus and Libya Politics & Security.

© 2011 Menas Associates

Qadhafi remaining in Libya is a possibility

Speaking alongside France's Foreign Minister Alain Juppe, UK Foreign Secretary William Hague said Colonel Mu'ammar Qadhafi must relinquish power but may not have to leave Libya. Hague noted that Britain would preferably see Qadhafi go but said it was up to the people of Libya to determine whether the Leader should leave.

The two dignitaries were discussing the on-going conflict, following claims that the French were growing impatient with the lack of military success. To counteractive the claims, Hague said that the neighbours were "absolutely united" in their approach to the crisis.

The latest announcement shows a considerable change in Britain's stance on the situation in Libya, which previously indicated that the UK was all for Qadhafi going. According to the BBC, Hague's comments come amid signs that Libyan opposition fears that it may be near-impossible to see Qadhafi and his family leave the country.

The deal, for the Leader to remain in the country, would rest on him agreeing to relinquish power and certain other conditions. A number of parallel mediation efforts to find a peace deal are underway, involving UN, African and other envoys.

Speaking about the situation, Hague said: “What happens to Qadhafi is ultimately a question for the Libyans…What is absolutely clear, as Alain (Juppe) has said, is that whatever happens, Qadhafi must leave power. He must never again be able to threaten the lives of Libyan civilians nor to destabilise Libya once he has left power…Obviously him leaving Libya itself would be the best way of showing the Libyan people that they no longer have to live in fear of Qadhafi.”

He added: “But as I have said all along, this is ultimately a question for Libyans to determine."

In a show of solidarity between the neighbouring countries, Juppe backed Hague's comments, saying the allies were in "perfect co-operation". He noted: "We think that we must continue to exert strong pressure on the Libyan regime with the same methods. If we did not intervene four months ago it would have been a massacre in Benghazi and I think we may be proud to have taken this courageous decision."

Sources: BBC News, Reuters, The Daily Telegraph

For more news and expert analysis about Libya, please see Libya Focus and Libya Politics & Security.

Libya Contact Group meets in Turkey

The Libya Contact Group is meeting in Turkey today to discuss the situation in Libya. The group of 15 delegates includes, the ministers of foreign affairs of the UK, Italy and France, US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, NATO representatives and Arab diplomats.

France's Foreign Minister Alain Juppé has said Paris has had contact with Libyan officials discussing the prospects of a prospects of a political solution based on contacts with Colonel Mu'ammar Qadhafi.

The meeting is expected to revolve around key issues pertaining to the on-going political deadlock in Libya, and the measures necessary to oust Qadhafi. The delegation will also look at a progress report on the Libyan opposition's plans for progress to democracy. Representatives of the Benghazi-based National Transitional Council are expected, but invitations to China and Russia were both declined.

Libya remains divided with the rebels holding eastern parts of the country and pockets in the west, while Qadhafi remains entrenched in the capital Tripoli, despite a NATO bombing campaign of more than 6,000 sorties against regime forces.

Sources: BBC News, Reuters, Bloomberg

For more news and expert analysis about Libya, please see Libya Focus and Libya Politics & Security.

Political atmosphere far from stable

Despite the apparent low-key military action, the political atmosphere is far from stable. Apart from the deep cleavages between the rebels and the Colonel Mu'ammar Qadhafi's regime, there are also cross currents of dissent and criticism by supporters of both sides in the war.

The next stage to be expected is an attack by the rebels in Tripolitania, with specific battles likely for Sirte, Zliten and Tarhuna. Should these be successful, it is probable that the next hurdle will be the establishment of an acceptable constitution which itself will be a difficult time as there is no agreement on leadership, on the role of the president or the alignment of policies. It is, therefore, a very unsure and unstable situation.

Foreign investors should not underestimate the unreliability of individuals and institutions at this critical stage of the would-be revolution.

In recent months, there has been an absence of law and order, and of clear statements concerning the policies of any incoming government. The strength of the Islamists cannot be underestimated. An Islamic-orientated constitution would put co-operation with foreign interests as a low priority, while the emergence of a radical reforming group could result in a very dynamic, if chaotic, surge in development excluding foreign participation.

The security of individuals travelling in Libya is difficult to guarantee as the regional authorities have only weak control over the police and other arms of government. It will take some time before the financial situation is calmed and thus payments abroad become routine. The British Foreign Office continues to advise no travel to Libya.

For more news and expert analysis about Libya, please see Libya Focus and Libya Politics & Security.

© 2011 Menas Associates

NATO continues airstrike campaign on Tripoli

NATO is continuing its airstrike campaign in Tripoli, near the fortified Bab Al-Aziziya compound belonging to Colonel Mu'ammar Qadhafi. The compound has been a key target for months.

It is yet unclear if Qadhafi 's compound has been hit, or wether there have been casualties.

NATO began its air campaign nearly three months ago under a UN resolution to protect Libyan civilians. The country has been in turmoil for months. In March, the alliance imposed a no-fly zone over Libya when Qadhafi's forces threatened to overrun rebel held parts of the country.

A Russian envoy is currently in Tripoli for talks on ending the civil war. Mikhail Margelov, who met with rebel representatives in Benghazi last week, said NATO airstrikes are not a solution to Libya's violent deadlock.

According to the ITAR-Tass news agency, Margelov has already met with Libya's Foreign Minister Abdul-Ati Al-Obeidi and is planning a session with Prime Minister Mahmoud Al-Baghdadi.

Qadhafi's representatives have said the Leader would accept a ceasefire and political talks on the future of the country on the condition that he is allowed to keep his position.

Speaking about the situation, UK's Prime Minister David Cameron said the mission could be sustained as long as was needed, adding: "Time is on our side."

Sources: BBC News, Fox News, Bloomberg

For more news and expert analysis about Libya, please see Libya Focus and Libya Politics & Security.

Libya: NOC after Shukri Ghanem's departure

The apparent defection of the head of the National Oil Company (NOC) chief, Dr Shukri Ghanem, from Colonel Colonel Mu'ammar Qadhafi's camp to the opposition was announced in mid-May. Reuters reported on 16th May that Arab TV stations, including Al-Arabiya, were announcing his departure from Libya.

There was at that time no official confirmation of this other than a news item put out by the Interim Transitional National Council (ITNC) in Benghazi declaring this change of allegiance. He escaped through Tunisia before flying out of Jerba to a European destination.

Ghanem has always acted as his own man, beginning with a post in the Ministry of Economy in the 1960s and culminating with his appointment in 2004 as head of the General Peoples Committee (GPC) or prime minister. He has also always had his own views of the path forward for the Libyan economy to which he adhered.

This was despite their general unpopularity because they included the gradual removal of the expensive consumer subsidies. At one time he had the nickname “Shukri Tomato Paste” because of his plans to remove the subsidy on such an important and basic foodstuff.

He was one of Colonel Qadhafi's few Libyan advisers who was professionally qualified, highly experienced in oil affairs through many years at OPEC headquarters in Austria, and had the intellectual strength to manage an oil-based economy with some élan.

Ghanem's became Colonel Qadhafi's prime source of influence on the awarding of oil exploration and production agreements by installing his own competent and preferred personnel in key posts in the NOC system.

It is believed by oil industry sources that his loss will mean substantial co-option of new cadres and an internal struggle among NOC's ambitious men to try to recapture Ghanem's former role. If the Libyan clients-patron system persists in whatever new government structure is formed after the civil war, an altogether different clutch of individuals will be in power and a scramble for influence will begin.

For more news and expert analysis about Libya, please see Libya Focus and Libya Politics & Security.

© 2011 Menas Associates

Libya's Oil Minister Shukri Ghanem flees the country

Libya's Oil Minister Shukri Ghanem has fled the country and flew to Tunisia before making way to the island of Djerba. Libyan rebel leaders have confirmed that Ghanem has defected and was making his way to an undisclosed European location.

A spokesman for the Libyan regime, Moussa Ibrahim, said Ghanem was in Tunisia on official business but noted that the government was unable to reach him. Ibrahim added: “If he did [defect], this is his business…It's not a big deal for us."

A Tunisian official told AFP that Ghanem did indeed stay in the neighbouring country, but added that the former oil minister had "not tried to contact the Tunisian authorities".

A spokesman for Tunisia's rebel Transitional National Council, Jumaa El Gamaty, said: "Mr Shukri Ghanem has defected. I think as we speak he's in [a] transitory European country."

The news of Ghanem's “defection” comes just days after, the International Criminal Court's (ICC) Chief Prosecutor Luis Moreno-Ocampo has said he was seeking the arrest of Libyan Leader Colonel Mu'ammar Qadhafi, his son Saif Al-Islam and the country's Intelligence Chief Abdullah Al-Sanussi.

Moreno-Ocampo said all three individuals were largely responsible for the "widespread and systematic attacks" on civilians. It will be up to the ICC judges to issue warrants for their arrests.

Sources: BBC News, AFP, San Francisco Chronicle, Reuters

For more news and expert analysis about Libya, please see Libya Focus and Libya Politics & Security.

The outlook for companies in Libya is bleak

The outlook for companies in Libya is bleak, and the prospect for foreign suppliers remains extremely unsettled. Small companies in particular will require some time to repair their positions in the country unless Libya is willing to undergo a period of financial retrenchment and to concentrate on the key oil industry.

This latter approach would give an advantage to foreign suppliers and contractors because the upstream and downstream oil industries are the most capital intensive and have the heaviest requirement for foreign-sourced factors of production. This would, however, also mean ignoring the case for the expansion of education, social welfare, housing and health, together with cleaning up after the war.

The post-war situation is likely to be bitter, and could be troubled by revenge attacks within civil society. The outcome of the current situation, which is a virtual civil war, remains very difficult to predict but there will inevitably be causes for confrontation remaining between the eventual winners and losers. There could also be transfers of ownership of assets from or, less likely, into, the Qadhafi family and also, given the highly polarised distribution of assets in favour of the few rich families, some readjustments so that some assets of those who have benefited from the Qadhafi era are distributed to the poor.

At the end of the war, rejuvenation will be a grey area in so far as there exists few credible development strategies other than those prepared by planners and intellectuals such as National Oil Company (NOC) head Dr Shukri Ghanem but which, because of the impact of the war, are already out of date.

If Libya does not opt for a concentrated drive to restore the underlying oil economy, a new regime might be persuaded to seek popularity through a programme of essentially social improvements and distribution of some of the oil revenues to the people. Having been through a war, self confidence could run high so that the Libyans themselves, also impelled by a need for economies, will want to participate in the re-development process to the exclusion of foreigners, as Iranians did after the Islamic revolution.

For more news and expert analysis about Libya, please see Libya Focus and Libya Politics & Security.

© 2011 Menas Associates

The war is not going well for either side

The war is not going well for either of the two parties. The better equipped Qadhafi forces are more than holding their own in the Sirtican zone but have continued to struggle - despite their great superiority in weapons and trained personnel - to take Misrata after two weeks of heavy bombardment. The rebels' situation has been stabilised to the west of Benghazi but is only being preserved with severe losses to the volunteers.

The deadlock in the siege of Misrata, Libya's third largest city, sums up the fighting across the board but its position is parlous, given that it is cut off from the main body of the rebels and is seriously short of food, medicines and adequate armaments.

The rebels have been very slow to learn from their mistakes and their front-line fighters remain very badly organised and ill-disciplined. The hit-and-run tactics used by the volunteers are possibly attributable to the problems of a weak armoury, but are still inadequate to hold back the Qadhafi forces aligned against them. The flow of newly-trained recruits that has been promised for the front-line is gradually becoming available but has so far had little or no marked influence on the quality of the tactics that are being used.

The ultimate test of the rebels will be whether Benghazi can hold on if those sections of the army which are still under the control of the Qadhafi regime attempt to fight their way to the gates of the city. Should the support of the Arab states, the aid of NATO and the backing of the mass of the Libyan population fade with the lack of rebel military success or a period of stagnation sets in, then retaining the integrity of Benghazi will be difficult.

For more news and expert analysis about Libya, please see Libya Focus and Libya Politics & Security.

© 2011 Menas Associates

Libyan rebels concede to a ceasefire

Following news that seven civilians died and 25 were injured in a coalition air strike on a pro-Qadhafi convoy, a Libyan opposition leader, Mustafa Abdul-Jalil, said the rebels will accept a UN-demanded ceasefire if Qadhafi withdraws his forces from all the cities and concedes to peaceful protests.

Speaking at a conference in Benghazi, Abdul-Jalil said: "We agree on a ceasefire on the condition that our brothers in the western cities have freedom of expression and also that the forces that are besieging the cities withdraw.”

During the conference, also attended by UN envoy Abdelilah Al-Khatib, visiting the rebels' de-facto stronghold in hope of reaching a resolution, Abdul-Jalil said a ceasefire would been agreed on the condition that “Qadhafi's brigades and forces withdraw from inside and outside Libyan cities”. He added that in doing so the world would see that the Libyan people would “choose freedom" rather than remain under the regime.

The offer was made from a position of power, as the rebels seem to be better organized and better armed than ever. For most of this week, Qadhafi's forces have been trying to push the rebels back about 100 miles along the coast, prompting them to regroup and form a new strategy.

Another Libyan opposition leader, Ali Tarhouni, said the rebels had negotiated a deal with Qatar to supply oil, they control in parts of south-eastern Libya, in exchange for money for weapons and ammunition. Tarhouni did not say when the deal was agreed.

Amid talks of further defections, following that of Libya's Foreign Minister Musa Kusa, Libya's Chief of Intelligence Bouzeid Dorda dismissed rumours that he was planning to abandon Libya. In a statement aired on Libya's State television, Dorda said: "I am in Libya and will remain here steadfast in the same camp of the revolution despite everything. I never thought to cross the borders or violate commitment to the people, the revolution and the leader."

Oil Minister Shukri Ghanim has denied similar rumours, saying: "I am in Tripoli working in my office... I am trying my best to keep this oil industry as one industry, trying to minimise the damage that is happening to the installation, trying to secure the safety of the staff and the personnel [and] trying to prevent the looting of the industry."

Sources: BBC News, AP, Bloomberg

For more news and expert analysis about Libya, please see Libya Focus and Libya Politics & Security.

No Al-Qa'ida presence in the Libyan revolution

The US has reported that, despite fears of Al-Qa'ida presence in the opposition, rebelling against long- term leader Colonel Mu'ammar Qadhafi, it has found no evidence to support such suspicions. The US began gathering intelligence when anti-Qadhafi rebels started seizing towns in eastern Libya last month.

Speaking about the exercise, a US counter-terrorism official said: "We're keeping an eye out for extremist activity in Libya, but we haven't seen much, if any, to date.”

Eastern Libya has always been synonymous with Islamic militants, with the vast majority coming from Benghazi and nearby Derna. The US is, therefore, concerned that long-term instability may prove a fertile breeding ground for Al-Qa'ida and its subsidiaries. There is no concrete evidence, however, to suggest this may be the case.

In the past, Qadhafi has always claimed that eastern Libya has long been dominated by Al-Qa'ida, a charge vehemently contested by opposition leaders in the region. With most of Libya's domestic Islamists in prison, the anti-Qadhafi revolution is being led by ordinary people.

Speaking about it, Menas Associates Managing Director Charles Gurdon said: “Although Libya's revolution has very broad support in Cyrenaicia, its leadership structure is loose and unwieldy and includes, secular technocrats and intellectuals; more conservative tribal and religious leaders; representatives of the youth population; and some officials and military officers who defected from the regime.”

Sources: Los Angeles Times, Bellingham Herald, The Business Insider

For more news and expert analysis about Libya, please see Libya Focus and Libya Politics & Security.

Qadhafi is losing control of Libya's borders

While the media speculation on how long Colonel Mu'ammar Qadhafi will stay in power continues, one thing seems clear: he is fast losing control of his country's borders.

Thousands of foreign nationals have been fleeing the country by both its eastern land border into Egypt and its western land border into Tunisia in recent days as Tripoli's airport struggles to cope with the number of people wanting to leave.

Reports from the border with Egypt have suggested that opposition forces have gained control of the border. According to the BBC there are no government officials at the border and formalities are at a minimum. A new flag is flying and a picture of Col Qadhafi has been cross out.

There are a series of checkpoints as you drive into Libya, which are armed by army and police officers, but they have all defected to the opposition. The BBC reports that locals are even acting as traffic police.

It is estimated that 1.5 million Egyptians were in Libya. An Egyptian security official told the Associated Press that about 5,000 Egyptians have returned home and about 10,000 more are waiting to cross the Libya-Egypt border.

A Korean news source has reported the story of nine Koreans working in Libya who drove for 67 hours through the desert on mostly unpaved roads to escape the country to Egypt. Their office in Tubruk had been looted over the weekend and a number of public buildings in the city were set on fire, they said.

Reports so far indicate that Qadhafi's forces have fared better on the Western border, and the plain green Libyan flag of his regime is still flying. Huge bottlenecks are reported at border crossings, although large numbers are getting through.

The International Organisation for Migration said on Wednesday 23rd February that thousands of foreign nationals were leaving by the western land border as well.

"Although a significant number are from Egypt, Tunisia, Sudan, Chad, Niger, West Africa and the Horn of Africa, there are also migrants from other parts of the world including Asia," it said. "Among them are Filipinos, Sri Lankans, Bangladeshis, Pakistanis and Chinese."

It also mentioned Lebanese, Turkish, Syrian and German nationals have left through the land border. IOM spokesman Jean-Philippe Chauzy said the arrivals began on late Tuesday.

Fleeing migrants said they had been stopped at checkpoints by pro-government soldiers who confiscated mobile phones, passports and other belongings, Chauzy said.

Many foreign ministries, including that of the UK, have started or will start evacuating their citizens from Libya by air and sea.

Sources: BBC, Reuters, Associated Press, JoongAng Daily

For more news and expert analysis about Libya, please see Libya Focus and Libya Politics & Security.

Security for companies working in Libya of interest to local authorities

The level of security for companies working in Libya remains a matter of acute interest to the local authorities. The likely withdrawal of a number of IOCs at the end of unsuccessful exploration programmes is recognised by Libya's senior planning agencies as an unwelcome setback to the economic development programme.

This will negatively affect Libya's principal economic sector, and considerably more exploration will need to be undertaken to ensure that reserve-to-production ratios do not fall significantly. The past six months - including the news of IOC withdrawals and soft world oil demand - have reinforced the pessimism for a strong surge in oil income for the immediate future.

It is interesting that NOC head, Dr Shukri Ghanem, was very sharp in making clear that the departure of IOCs was nothing unusual and that Occidental would remain for the time being. He was also at pains to assert that the long-term hydrocarbon development programmes are still on course. As noted last week, Shell's and BP's current exploration operations will be crucial. So far, BP remains convinced that its vitally important offshore drilling programme will begin before the end of the year. According to Ghanem, care has been taken to ensure that a repeat of the Gulf of Mexico oil spill will not occur.

The negative impact of the withdrawal of some IOCs should not be over emphasised. Indeed, the simultaneous presence of 47 IOCs in Libya was – because of many reasons, including its inadequate infrastructure and NOC's insufficient numbers of senior personnel who are able to negotiate with the IOCs – placing a severe strain on the country to cope with the influx. The income flows from oil ought, however, to be adequate to sustain the present level of activity both in oil and other key areas.

It must be expected that the security for the oil industry will continue to be enforced. Libya is well aware that its oil reserves position is fair but not good and that it needs to protect those overseas companies which remain inside the country.

For more news and expert analysis about Libya, please see Libya Focus and Libya Politics & Security.

© 2010 Menas Associates