Libya being shun by most of EU

The situation in Libya has reached a point where the Colonel Qadhafi's regime will no longer be tolerated in any form by the protestors who now make up the majority, but certainly not all, of the Libyan population.

Violence in Tripoli has waxed and waned over the last week. Overall, Qadhafi has tightened his grip on the capital, making public appearances and sending his troops onto the streets. Some estimates suggest that up to 80 per cent of Libya is in anti-government hands.

On 26th February, the UN Security Council issued a statement, demanding an end to the violence. Resolution 1970 called for member States to secure delivery of humanitarian assistance. A committee has been established to monitor the situation. The Resolution also imposed Sanctions comprising of an arms embargo, a travel ban and an asset freeze. The freeze only applies to the Leader and five of his children. The travel ban, however, applies to 16 individuals associated with the regime. The UN has also referred the matter to the International Criminal Court (ICC).

Fighting has been ongoing with reports of clashes in the Tripoli suburb of Tajura. Key towns, Zawiya and Misurata, are understood to be surrounded by government forces but remain in rebel control. On 2nd March, it appeared that Brega was re-captured by the regime but has since been lost again with the rebels now in control.

The EU continues to condemn the violence. EU Foreign Policy Chief, Catherine Ashton, confirmed on 28th February that the EU was adopting the UN sanctions including a wider travel ban affecting a total of 26 people connected to the regime.

France was the first country to confirm that it had sent medical aid to Libya. Two planes went into Benghazi, carrying nurses, doctors, medicines and medical equipment. Italy, on the other hand, has suspended its Friendship Treaty with Libya, reasoning that the government with which it signed the treaty no longer exists as an entity. With the lifting of the treaty, Italian bases could now be used for military aircraft including NATO forces to take off for Libya. Under the terms of agreements, Italy had agreed not to allow its territory to be the base for any attack on Libya.

In applying UN sanctions, the UK has frozen substantial assets held inside its borders by the Qadhafi family. Libyan currency, printed in the UK, believed to be in the region of £900 million, has also been affected by the asset freeze. The UK Foreign Office has suspended its embassy in Libya, leaving a sole consular representative and placing consular affairs in the hands of the Turkish embassy.

On 25th February, the US Embassy in Tripoli was closed. It is understood that US$30 billion worth of Libyan assets in the US were then frozen. Secretary of State, Hillary Clinton, travelled to a meeting of foreign ministers in Geneva on 28th February. She issued a statement claiming that Administration would assist Libyan rebels in any way possible but officials later clarified that this did not mean supplying arms.

The regime is presenting itself as unharmed and unbowed. There have been promises of a US$400 handout for each family, as well as assurances that civil service wages could increase by up to 150 per cent. These would appear to be last ditch attempts to hold on to control as Libyan diplomats around the world continue to resign.

Regime spokesman Mussa Ibrahim and both Sa'adi Qadhafi and Saif Al-Islam Qadhafi have given interviews to foreign press claiming that problems have been grossly exaggerated. In an interview released by the BBC, Colonel Qadhafi demonstrated his determination to remain in power, claiming that he is loved by the Libyan people and condemning foreign governments for interference in the Jamahiriya.

For more news and expert analysis about Libya, please see Libya Focus and Libya Politics & Security.

© 2011 Menas Associates

Libya: The Leader's wide-ranging article

In a recent publication by the Revolutionary Committees Group there was a contribution from Colonel Qadhafi under the title, “An invitation to form a party of the people once again”. This quotation from his Green Book has, however, become meaningless, with the Leader apparently prescribing that only the ruling party will be permitted to keep its membership.

In fact, Colonel Qadhafi appears to be threatening the Revolutionary Committees' cadres and others who have held responsible posts in the Jamahiriya with exclusion from the regime if their known involvement in bribery and corruption is “grotesque”. All those who in the past have been corrupt remain at risk of the backlash of “the oppressed class”.

The new rich now comprise the enemy, and Colonel Qadhafi is promising that the regime will be active in tackling bribery and corruption and bringing those involved to book. In his article, the “oppressed” are being encouraged to revolt against the “fat cats” who have prospered from their illicit activities since 1969. The Leader is also keen that non-political Libyans should join the new party.

It is suspected that the Leader is quietly regretting his move towards liberalism following the aborted attempt in 2003 to develop weapons of mass destruction.

There are several explanations for this remarkable article. He appears to, once again, stand up as the protector of Libya's poor and to destroy the polarised society that exists today. He has recently made several visits into the Libyan countryside to glean some of the causes of national ambivalence towards the regime. During his review, he found that the people regarded the regime as separate from their lives and unapproachable and this seems to have upset him very much. He now appears to feel that “a new era is taking shape” and is, therefore, establishing an imaginary political party with which he can settle old scores with corrupt officials and deal harshly with those who have exploited their positions.

The domestic opposition is mainly expressed through apathy and non-co-operation. It is assumed that real revolution will eventually come but only slowly because of the Libyans' deep anathema to political action.

For more news and expert analysis about Libya, please see Libya Focus and Libya Politics & Security.

© 2010 Menas Associates

Attacking Libya Press

Much commentary has interpreted the arrests of Al-Ghad's journalists simply as an escalation of the row between reformists and the old guard. The media were certainly issued with a very stern warning and their ability to criticise has probably been constrained – at least in publications printed and distributed within the Jamahiriya.

However, Oea's attack on long-time hardliner Ahmed Ibrahim, who is currently the head of the World Centre for Studies and Research on the Green Book, adds a deeper dimension to the conflict.

Ibrahim is a die-hard figure who still goes to the limit to defend the revolution. Despite his demotion in 2008 from deputy secretary of the General People's Congress to his current position, and despite his well-known misgivings about Saif al-Islam, he remains very close to the Leader, who is a cousin, and is a key figure within the upper echelons of the regime.

Libya Press goaded Ibrahim by reporting that he had held a series of meetings to mobilise support for a special internal organisation to prevent Libyans returning from abroad from being given leadership posts.

This is a very hot topic at the moment. Saif al-Islam is regularly criticised for bringing in exiles who have made their peace with the regime and appointing them to senior positions.

The article also claimed that Ibrahim had called for foreign companies to be barred from taking part in the country's development plan. It reported his view that economic openness and foreign investment are unhealthy phenomena that have damaged the economy.

The article concluded that Ibrahim wanted to take Libya back to the 1980s, a decade considered to be dark by many Libyans as it was characterised by particular brutality. It painted Ibrahim as single-handedly standing in the way of the country's future development.

Given that all the journalists who were arrested were from Libya Press, it seems reasonable to assume that Ibrahim may well have been behind their incarceration. He is certainly powerful enough to have made such a move. Indeed it is doubtful that al-Mahmoudi would have had the power to issue such instructions without backing from more senior elements in the regime.

Therefore while the arrests fell within the context of the battle between reformists and hardliners, they also appear to have been motivated by important figures within the regime taking revenge for having been publicly insulted.

Ibrahim has never been shy about hitting back at his enemies. Many remember the famous showdown in 2005 in the General People's Congress between him and his nemesis, Shukri Ghanem, when the latter was still prime minister. Ibrahim objected to a series of policies that Ghanem had tried to introduce to open up the economy.

In a bitter exchange of words he said of Ghanem, 'You cannot respond to or sympathise with someone who wants power for himself.'

For more news and expert analysis about Libya, please see Libya Focus and Libya Politics & Security.

© 2010 Menas Associates

Libya: New phase of nationalism gaining ground

There are signs of a new phase of nationalism gaining ground; an enhanced mood of pro-Arab and anti-foreign sentiment. It appears to spring from Colonel Qadhafi's old ideas on the role of the State and the ownership of the factors of production by the people. Such views are, as expected, welcome to the Old Guard and to the revolutionary committee movement. In essence, the ambition of the conservative right is the salvation of the Jamahiriya and with it, the concentration of economic power in the hands of the State.

Among the current sectors feeling some of the cold draught of growing nationalism is the banking quarter, where the regime appears to be caught in two minds about its future expansion. Saif al-Islam and his colleagues see the banking sector as an important backstop for the provision of credit to the private sector and want this task accomplished by private banking operations. Despite this, the banking privatisation programme has been considerably reduced in recent months.

The allocation of banking licences permitting the opening of new joint ventures has been distorted by the acquisition of a large stake in Italy's UniCredit on grounds of private interest by the Leader and Italy's Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi.

The delay in granting a banking license to a second foreign bank, which was promised and forecast by the government earlier in the year, gives some credence to the belief among the banking community that the gains in efficiency and honesty in the banking system are not the regime's principal aims. Foreign companies operating in Libya will benefit from some of the banking reforms that have been recently achieved but a dramatic dedication to any continuing improvement cannot be guaranteed.

For more news and expert analysis about Libya, please see Libya Focus and Libya Politics & Security.

© 2010 Menas Associates

Libya releases details about Canadian citizen accused of industrial espionage

Details have been released regarding the repatriation of a Canadian citizen, Douglas O'Reilly, who had been prevented from leaving Libya after being accused of industrial espionage during a recent trip to Tripoli. There is no information on when he will actually leave Libya but the restrictions no longer apply. It is understood that O'Reilly was made to stay in his hotel room in Tripoli while investigations were carried out into the accusations.

The news will be of interest to those doing business in Libya because it highlights one of the concerns for foreign workers in the Jamahiriya. The vagaries of local security systems mean that there is always a chance, albeit small, of workers being hindered by overly zealous local authorities.

It was alleged that O'Reilly was working clandestinely for clients interested in disadvantaging BP's current offshore drilling campaign. It is alleged that they sought to highlight the numerous offshore archaeological sites that would be at risk if there was another oil spill similar to the one that BP has recently experienced in the Gulf of Mexico. O'Reilly had been placed under surveillance by Libyan authorities who didn't believe his claims that he was simply a touring archaeologist concerned about a new BP offshore rig.

It was also alleged in other reports that he was working with US intelligence “to gather information aiming to ensure the failure of the drilling project” and that he had been spotted meeting a US diplomat who is suspected of being a CIA spy.

Jim Delgado, of the Texas-based Institute of Nautical Archaeology, said that everyone wanted to avoid a repeat of the Gulf of Mexico spill but that his institute has been discussing the oil project with Libya, which he says is taking pains to ensure drilling doesn't adversely affect any future finds.

For more news and expert analysis about Libya, please see Libya Focus and Libya Politics & Security.

© 2010 Menas Associates