China-Algeria trade increases fifteen-fold

France lost its position as Algeria’s major supplier to China in 2013, according to the latest economic data, Naser al-Tamimi reported for Al-Arabiya on 26 March. The source of the data is not given, so we cannot comment on it. What we can say is that bilateral trade between Algiers and Beijing, according to UN data, has grown almost fifteen-fold in the past 10 years, from $608 million in 2003 to more than $9 billion by the end of 2013. The two countries have established what they call “the comprehensive strategic partnership”.

Algeria is now China’s top trade partner and largest export market in the Maghreb region. Beijing’s trade with Algeria represented over 40% of China’s total trade with Maghreb (nearly $21 billion) in 2013. As we reported last month, Algeria is a lucrative market for Chinese engineering. Latest data show that Algeria is the biggest market for Chinese contractors in Africa, after Nigeria.

A little known feature of Chinese-Algerian trade, possibly because of the prominence given to the establishment of French auto-plants in Algeria, is that China, according to the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (CAAM), exports more cars to Algeria than any other country. Algeria was China’s top vehicle export destination in 2012 and 2013. Chinese state manufacturer FAW has recently signed a deal to build an assembly plant in Algeria, producing 10,000 vehicles a year. A number of defence industry sources have recently commented on Algeria’s interest, as one of the world’s major arms purchasers, in the possible procurement of Chinese weaponry.

For more news and expert analysis about Algeria, please see Algeria Focus and Algeria Politics & Security.

© 2014 Menas Associates

Libya: NOC after Shukri Ghanem's departure

The apparent defection of the head of the National Oil Company (NOC) chief, Dr Shukri Ghanem, from Colonel Colonel Mu'ammar Qadhafi's camp to the opposition was announced in mid-May. Reuters reported on 16th May that Arab TV stations, including Al-Arabiya, were announcing his departure from Libya.

There was at that time no official confirmation of this other than a news item put out by the Interim Transitional National Council (ITNC) in Benghazi declaring this change of allegiance. He escaped through Tunisia before flying out of Jerba to a European destination.

Ghanem has always acted as his own man, beginning with a post in the Ministry of Economy in the 1960s and culminating with his appointment in 2004 as head of the General Peoples Committee (GPC) or prime minister. He has also always had his own views of the path forward for the Libyan economy to which he adhered.

This was despite their general unpopularity because they included the gradual removal of the expensive consumer subsidies. At one time he had the nickname “Shukri Tomato Paste” because of his plans to remove the subsidy on such an important and basic foodstuff.

He was one of Colonel Qadhafi's few Libyan advisers who was professionally qualified, highly experienced in oil affairs through many years at OPEC headquarters in Austria, and had the intellectual strength to manage an oil-based economy with some élan.

Ghanem's became Colonel Qadhafi's prime source of influence on the awarding of oil exploration and production agreements by installing his own competent and preferred personnel in key posts in the NOC system.

It is believed by oil industry sources that his loss will mean substantial co-option of new cadres and an internal struggle among NOC's ambitious men to try to recapture Ghanem's former role. If the Libyan clients-patron system persists in whatever new government structure is formed after the civil war, an altogether different clutch of individuals will be in power and a scramble for influence will begin.

For more news and expert analysis about Libya, please see Libya Focus and Libya Politics & Security.

© 2011 Menas Associates