Terror attacks continue in Kenya coastal counties

The security situation in coastal Kenya remains beyond state control. In the past two weeks, three further attacks have taken place. Attacks in Lamu and Tana River Counties, which have again been claimed by Somalia’s Al Shabaab militant Islamists, have resulted in the deaths of at least 22 people. The attacks took place on the night of Saturday 5 July.

The Tana River County attack was in the small town of Gamba, where detainees were freed from police cells and nine people were killed. At least a further 13 died at Hindi close to Mpeketoni in Lamu County. Al Shabaab claimed to have freed 40 detainees and to have killed 60 people in the process.

On the night of 11 July the village of Pandanguo was attacked by a gang of up to 60 people. Six police reservist guns were taken. Pandanguo is close to the village of Witu where, on the night of 22 June, another attack saw 11 people brutally killed.

Lamu County is fast turning into a war zone. People are fleeing the insecurity with at least 2,500 people being served by the Kenyan Red Cross in displaced people’s camps and many more relocating under their own resources. Some are reportedly questioning the government’s inept response which has allowed these attacks to continue.

The state’s response remains confused. Military spokesman Major Emmanuel Chirchir continues to contradict President Uhuru Kenyatta by pinning the blame for the attacks on Al Shabaab. Meanwhile, the Hindi and Tana River attacks have been blamed on the Mombasa Republican Council (MRC).

The MRC was founded in 1999 and seeks to establish an independent state based around Mombasa. It strongly denies the allegations. In a July 7 statement released on its Facebook page, they called on people “not to fall into the government’s trap of creating war between communities” and that “whether you like it or not, the Mombasa Republic will take its place amongst nations”. Prior to the Hindi and Gamba attacks the police reported the arrest of four alleged MRC members in Mombasa.

Mombasa itself remains tense. A Russian tourist was shot dead on Sunday 6 July while touring the UNESCO Heritage Site of Fort Jesus. It is unclear if the attack was a simple robbery or a terror attack that was targeting tourists.

On Friday 11 July the controversial businessman, Mohamed Shahid Butt, was assassinated in his car coming back from Mombasa’s Moi International airport. Butt was facing charges for inciting radicalism in the town and last appeared in court in December 2013. His shooting is suspected to have been carried out by state security officials in the Anti-Terror Police Unit. Similarly, the Al Shabaab-supporting cleric, Abubaker Shariff Ahmed, was murdered in April 2014.

The recent months have exposed the new frailties in Kenya. The traditional rivalries of the leadership of the country’s main tribes and their political groupings continue, but it is almost as a sideshow. Intensifying conflicts on the edges of the Kenyan state - in its arid north and its increasingly unstable if not ungovernable coastal region - present an increasingly acute risk to investors. The tourism sector is collapsing in the face of terror.

For more news and expert analysis about East Africa, please see East Africa Politics & Security.

© 2014 Menas Associates

New security system for Algeria oil bases

Last week’s return of foreign workers to the Tiguentourine gas facility at In Amenas is based on the implementation of new security measures at Algeria’s oil and gas fields and their various installations. The new measures are reported to cover the four regions: the In Salah-Adrar basin, Hassi R'Mel, Hassi Messaoud and the southeast area encompassing Tiafti and In Amenas.

Our understanding of the new measures is that some 80 oil installations have been linked together in a new early warning preventative warning system. This includes intensive monitoring operations over oil and gas fields by military aircraft, as well as an alarm control system operated by Sonatrach that is triggered in the event of the discovery of any infiltration into 50 and 100 km security perimeters surrounding oil fields and bases. The military presence in areas close to industrial centres, oil and gas fields, and bases that have foreign employees has also been strengthened.

In addition, considerable emphasis has been placed on recruitment, not only at the point of recruitment, but throughout the period of employment and after the departure of the employee. This is because the terrorist attackers at In Amenas are believed to have collected information from former employees at the base.

Other safety procedures will include establishing a national security database that will hold the identity and a detailed biography of all Algerian and foreign workers in the oil companies.

For more news and expert analysis about Algeria, please see Algeria Focus and Algeria Politics & Security.

© 2014 Menas Associates

More alleged Renamo attacks and civilian deaths in Mozambique

There have been more alleged Renamo attacks in Sofala Province near Muxungue, with one taking place on 25 June, Mozambique’s Independence Day. Media reports suggest that during the week of 23-28 June, at least 12 people were killed, including four civilians, and many others were injured.

The army-protected convoys have now been reduced, adversely disrupting trade between the centre and south of the country. Lorry drivers travelling from Zimbabwe, Zambia and Malawi to the regional port of Beira have also been affected.

There have also been reports of minor attacks and exchanges of gunfire in other regions of the country. In Tete Province, for example, the local media reported that Renamo had attacked a police post in Chiuta and stole weapons. There were other cases of armed attacks in the province but it is believed that these could be the work of local criminals taking advantage of the current security instability.

There were reports of an exchange of gunfire between Renamo men and government soldiers in Zambezia Province when the army tried to dismantle a temporary Renamo base near Gurue District. Some of these attacks took place just before and during the Renamo meeting in Beira, and Renamo's leader Afonso Dhlakama has been asked by his supporters to explain why civilians were targeted. His response was that "the government is using civilian cars to transport weapons by road".

Dhlakama’s position has also been corroborated by a local priest, Jose Luiz Gonzalez, who has been working for the past six years on a local project run by US-based Catholic missionaries. He told reporters that Renamo does not attack civilians and that when there are civilian victims, it is because there are soldiers in the civilian convoys. The priest also stressed that in his area of Muxungue the local people do not agree with Renamo’s plan to divide the country and also do not support the violence.

For more news and expert analysis about Mozambique, please see Mozambique Politics & Security.

© 2014 Menas Associates

Yemen: Saudis put al-Huthi on list of terrorist organisations

Saudi Arabia issued a list of terrorist organisations on 6 March which includes the obvious suspects such as Al-Qa’ida in the Arabian Peninsula but also al-Huthi and the Muslim Brotherhood (MB). The Saudis have made clear that the banning of the MB is not directed at Islah, even though it is well known that the MB is part of that party. The naming of al-Huthi follows the approval of a new law on terrorism under which a special committee was set up to designate terrorist groups.

Riyadh has long regarded al-Huthi as hostile and fought al-Huthi fighters in 2009 and 2010. However, in the past three years the border has been quiet and both sides have avoided provocations. The Saudis have little doubt that al-Huthi is supported by Iran and the Lebanese Hizbollah and thus regarded as hostile. Riyadh will have been disturbed by the rapid rise in al- Huthi power in Yemen and the challenge this poses to some of Saudi Arabia’s traditional friends in the non-MB part of Islah. It is not clear if the al-Huthi political party, Ansar Allah, is affected.

Abd al-Malik al-Huthi blames the US, as usual, for the Saudi action, which he presented as taken precipitately and suggested that the Saudis might want to reconsider the situation. 

Saudi Arabia suspended its economic support to Yemen in late 2013, claiming that it wanted to encourage the politicians to agree on a way forward. The Saudi expulsion of Yemeni illegal migrants (within a general crackdown on illegals) has inflamed anti-Saudi opinion in Yemen.

Whether the Saudis have the will and capacity to turn the banning of al-Huthi into action against the movement in Yemen is moot.

Some Yemeni politicians are concerned about the rift within the GCC between Saudi Arabia and the UAE on one hand and Qatar on the other, mostly over Qatar’s backing for the MB. Qatar played a leading role in attempts in the late 2000s to mediate between the government and al-Huthi leaders and is the main financier, so far, of the fund to address southern grievances.

For more news and expert analysis about Yemen, please see Yemen Focus.

© 2014 Menas Associates