Nigeria: Spin doctors to the rescue

Nigeria is facing pressing problems so the government has taken decisive action: it signed a $1.2 million contract with an American public-relations company to manage the country's image.

 

The news of the contract came on the heels of an emotive and sorrowful op-ed that President Goodluck Jonathan published last week in the Washington Post, in which he attempted to rehabilitate his reputation and counter the impression that he was unconcerned about the fate of the more than 200 schoolgirls kidnapped from their school in Chibok in April.

 

"My silence has been necessary to avoid compromising the details of our investigation," the president wrote, though it was not clear how a refusal to meet with the grieving parents would endanger the recovery mission.

 

The letter, in retrospect, looked like the first salvo fired from the PR arsenal of Levick, the Washington-based lobbying firm contracted to help out the Abuja government. The company is going to try to shape the "media narrative" over the government's recovery effort. It is also tasked with mobilising international support of the fight against Boko Haram.

With the elections fast approaching in February 2015, critics accused Jonathan of running to the Washington spin-doctors to spruce up his image ahead of the still-yet-to-be-declared re-election campaign.

 

For its efforts, Levick will earn $75,000 a month plus (likely to be considerable) expenses for travel and media production, according to The Hill.

 

For more news and expert analysis about Nigeria or East Africa, please see Nigeria Focus and Nigeria Politics & Security.

© 2014 Menas Associates

Abuja shopping centre hit

An explosion hit a busy shopping centre in Nigeria’s capital, Abuja, on 25 June, and casualties are reported. The explosion hit the Wuse district, shattering windows and causing people to flee the shops with blood on their clothes. It is not yet clear what was behind the attack.

Although most of its targets have been in the northeast, Boko Haram has hit Abuja several times before, including an attack on the UN national headquarters in 2011. In April, more than 70 people were killed in a bomb blast at a bus stop on the outskirts of the capital in an attack claimed by the extremist group. In May, a car bomb near a bus station in the suburbs killed at least 19 people and injured 60 others.

For more news and expert analysis about Nigeria or East Africa, please see Nigeria Focus and Nigeria Politics & Security.

© 2014 Menas Associates

Britain to host summit on northern Nigeria crisis

 The UK’s Foreign Secretary William Hague is to use next week’s global meeting on conflict and gender violence to convene a special summit on Nigeria's crisis called “The London Ministerial Security in northern Nigeria”. Hague, regarded as one of the more effective ministers in Prime Minister David Cameron's cabinet, is taking advantage of the presence in London of over 40 foreign ministers, many from Africa and Europe, for the gender violence meeting.

Briefing journalists this week, Hague said the London meeting would build on – not replicate – the agreements and co-operation established at the regional summit on West African security hosted last month in Paris by President François Hollande. That was attended by heads of state from Nigeria, Cameroon, Niger, Chad and Benin, as well as senior officials from the US, the EU and Hague himself.

Hague said that the London meeting for foreign ministers and their security advisers will go into more detail, as well as diplomatic and security strategy. While praising the civil society effort to publicise the #Bringbackourgirls campaign, he said there was much work to do in “policy and institutional terms” to shape “an effective response to the crisis”. Most importantly, the meeting would look at more “pre-emptive measures” to fight terrorism.

Foreign Ministers from Canada, the US, the EU and West Africa are all due to attend.

For more news and expert analysis about Nigeria, please see Nigeria Focus and Nigeria Politics & Security.

© 2014 Menas Associates

Nigeria: Foreign currency reserves

On the downside, there has been little improvement to foreign currency reserves, which rose slightly to just over US$38 billion at the beginning of May. Foreign reserves have fallen 15 per cent since the beginning of the year, due in part to President Goodluck Jonathan’s suspension of internationally respected CBN governor Sanusi Lamido Sanusi.

Foreign reserves are still below the US$40 billion that some analysts believe represents an important psychological threshold on which the capacity of the CBN to deter market speculation on naira devaluation hinges. Bismark Rewane, of the Financial Derivative Company Limited research firm, believes that CBN increases in private-sector cash reserve ratios (CRR) have had little impact on reducing excess liquidity in the banking system, as illustrated by relatively low money-market interest rates.

Banks, analysts, and telecoms operators continue to speculate on the likelihood of a naira devaluation, albeit differing on whether a devaluation would occur before or after the February 2015 election. Although market pressure on the naira has partly receded in recent weeks, that could change if Boko Haram continues to ramp up its insurgency campaign.

For more news and expert analysis about Nigeria, please see Nigeria Focus and Nigeria Politics & Security.

© 2014 Menas Associates

Nigeria: Unhappy banks

Speculation aside, Nigeria’s banks have not welcomed the private-sector CRR increase, which they believe could harm their profits and reduce their ability to lend. These include Diamond Bank, whose officials recently stated that they will need to obtain more customer deposits to maintain profits now that – per deposit value – they may be unable to make the same income.

Some banks have in recent weeks reported decreased 2013 earnings, but it should be noted that some analysts – including Exotix – view Nigeria’s banking sector as a sound place to invest compared to other sub-Saharan African banking sectors. They highlight Zenith, United Bank for Africa, and Access Bank as good buys.

Nevertheless, the Nigerian commercial banking sector has been reassured by the installation of a new chief executive for pan-African Ecobank Transnational Incorporated (ETI), which has around 40 per cent of its revenues and assets in Nigeria. That feeling should be reinforced by soothing comments from the new man, Albert Kobina Essien.

Essien emphasises that ETI will focus on consolidation and efficiency improvements rather than overly rapid expansion, and that it will be more vigilant regarding important markets like Nigeria.

For more news and expert analysis about Nigeria, please see Nigeria Focus and Nigeria Politics & Security.

© 2014 Menas Associates

Ghana takes robust line against Nigeria on trade

As the new Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) chairman, Ghana’s President John Mahama is prioritising the implementation of the regional group's Trade Liberalization Scheme (ETLS). But he accused Nigeria of foot-dragging and said that Nigerian protectionism was damaging efforts the complete the deal.

Boosting regional trade would be a boon to exporters, and even importers could realise significant savings. Mahama pointed to Nigeria's salt imports: it buys one million tonnes a year of Brazilian salt while nearby Ghana struggles to upgrade its salt sector.

“Nigeria has nothing to fear from Ghana in terms of competition," said Mahama. "Nigeria has nothing to fear from Côte d'Ivoire in terms of competition. Nigeria has nothing to fear from Benin or Togo or Niger.”

For more news and expert analysis about Nigeria, please see Nigeria Focus and Nigeria Politics & Security.

© 2014 Menas Associates

Judge orders SSS to return Lamido Sanusi’s passport to him

Judge Ibrahim Buba of the Federal High Court in Lagos has ordered the State Security Service (SSS) to return the passport of the suspended Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) governor, Lamido Sanusi, to him and pay N50 million (US$305,000) in damages for detaining him.

Sanusi was suspended by President Goodluck Jonathan on 21 February after Sanusi had raised some uncomfortable questions about the US$20 billion that he said the state-owned Nigeria National Petroleum Corporation (NNPC) had failed to remit to the government.

Sanusi, who had been in Niger at a meeting of regional central bank governors at the time, was greeted by SSS agents on his return to Lagos, where he was detained and his passport confiscated.
Sanusi's problems are, however, far from over. He is challenging his suspension in court; not, he says to get his job back but instead to make the impropriety of his effective dismissal a matter of record. At the same time, he still faces questions from his opponents about his tenure at the CBN. Sanusi and his team - retired deputy governor Tunde Lemo and deputy (now acting) governor Sarah Alade - appeared before the Financial Reporting Council of Nigeria, to respond to questions about alleged irregular transactions in 2011-2012.

Meanwhile, the new Central Bank governor, Zenith Bank’s CEO and Group Managing Director Godwin Emefiele, was confirmed on 26 March after a speedy Senate hearing. He takes over from Sarah Alade in June.

For more news and expert analysis about Nigeria, please see Nigeria Focus and Nigeria Politics & Security.

© 2014 Menas Associates

Nigeria's international profile on the rise

Nigeria's international profile could increase as Africa's most populous country approaches GDP rebasing and is deemed one of the key emerging economies.

During the holiday period developments on Nigeria's economy have been somewhat muted, certainly compared to the contentious period culminating in the setting of the reference oil price for the budget and the actual 2014 Budget presentation by finance minister Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala (and pointedly not the under-fire President Jonathan) in December. Besides the nitty-gritty of Nigeria's spending plans recent international events may emphasize its growing importance in Africa. These include the chaos in South Sudan which has not only impacted global oil prices, but place Nigeria's oil-related environmental, theft and piracy troubles in perspective. Indeed, market observers are becoming increasingly worried about the Africa-portion of global oil supply.

 

Nigeria - regardless of the palaver over the Obasanjo and Sanusi letters to Jonathan - is set to become Africa's officially largest economy by GDP when rebasing exercise concludes this year. It has also been included as one of the “MINTs”, or emerging economies set to become major global players in the wake of the BRICs – the other MINTs being Mexico, Indonesia and Turkey. Goldman Sachs' influential Jim O'Neill – who recently designated the MINTs amongst in a widely-publicised interview - maintains his optimism on Nigeria despite its chaotic nature, partly due to its demographics, resources and entrepreneurial spirit.

 

Nigeria, whose stock market was one of the world's best performing during 2013, can surely benefit from any change in perceptions and especially given its current reputation as a country where some multinationals have been reluctant to send key individuals (in less secure regions), and reputation for corruption.

 

For more news and expert analysis about Nigeria, please see Nigeria Focus and Nigeria Politics & Security.

 

© 2014 Menas Associates

Mass demonstration of support for Jonathan in Abuja

Mass demonstration of support for Jonathan in Abuja will provide backdrop for announcement of his candidacy in 2014/15 elections.

 

Months of political suspense over whether President Goodluck Jonathan how and when declare his intentions to run for a second term in 2015 are coming to an end. Although Jonathan is certain to announce he will run in 2014/15, the main question for the ruling People's Democratic Party is how much of an internal competition for the nomination will be allowed in the wake of the defection of seven PDP state governors this month.

 

Preparations are under way for a “five-million-man march” in Abuja on October 19, at which Jonathan is expected to celebrate his achievements since 2011 and announced, at last, that he is in the running again.

 

The National Solidarity March, as the event is called, will be coordinated by Chief Obi Aguocha, an Abia State lawmaker. Similar spectacles will follow in key commercial centres across the country

Jonathan may have taken onboard the advice of Anthony Anenih, the Chairman of the PDP Board of Trustees, who seemed to be losing patience with the ongoing party ructions and two weeks ago told Jonathan to declare his candidacy.

 

For more news and expert analysis about Nigeria, please see Nigeria Focus and Nigeria Politics & Security.

 

© 2013 Menas Associates

Nigeria: Jonathan oscillates between compromise and vengeance

But the situation remains very much in flux. Since returning from a state trip to Kenya at the weekend, President Goodluck Jonathan has been in damage-control mode, racing through emergency meetings with friend and foe alike. He met former military leader Ibrahim Babangida and former PDP chairman Ahmadu Ali on 10 September, who could give him crucial support but they seem ambivalent towards Jonathan. Olusegun Obasanjo, who is also a key intermediary, was abroad in Belgium on 10-11 September. He seems to have numerous allies among the rebels.

 

Jonathan then held a closed meeting with members of the New PDP: Murtala Nyako (Adamawa), Babangida Aliyu (Niger), Sule Lamido (Jigawa) and Aliyu Wamakko (Sokoto). While no conclusions emerged, there are concessions that Jonathan could make to pacify the rebels. Those would be, firstly, the removal of Bamanga Tukur from the PDP chairmanship; secondly, the reinstatement of Rivers State Governor Rotimi Amaechi to the party and as chairman of the Nigeria Governors' Forum. The second concession is much more unlikely because of the high degree of personal animosity between Jonathan and Amaechi.

 

The New PDP, in fact, has already lifted Amaechi's suspension via the procedures of their own faction. Should the warring factions choose to reunite down the road, Jonathan and his supporters would be under pressure to accept this.

 

For more news and expert analysis about Nigeria, please see Nigeria Focus and Nigeria Politics & Security.

 

© 2013 Menas Associates

Nigeria: JTF claims anti-bunkering success

 

JTF claims anti-bunkering success, while the US joins a regional meeting on the growing threat off the coast.

 

A Joint Task Force spokesman, Onyema Nwachukwu, said that the JTF had arrested 608 suspected oil thieves in the first half of 2013. The JTF mission in the Niger Delta, code-named Operation Pulo Shield, has impounded 24 vessels and destroyed 748 illegal refineries over that period.

Nwachukwu said that the JTF patrols had notified oil companies of the breaches in its pipelines in Bayelsa in good time. He claimed that the companies had been slow to react, which led to the shutdown of 190,000 b/d.

 

The US and Nigeria held the Gulf of Guinea Regional Maritime Awareness Capability conference at Calabar in Cross River State from 29-31 July. Piracy in the Gulf of Guinea has surged in the past year, with the International Maritime Bureau reporting in mid-July that the waters off the Nigerian coast have become far more perilous than the Gulf of Aden. Cross River State Governor Liyel Imoke said piracy in the Gulf of Guinea had cost the world economy between US$750 million and US$950 million in 2012.

 

The conference brought together 13 African countries and was attended by representatives from US African Command (Africom) and the US Navy. A panel of Nigerian and US naval officers proposed joint training and information sharing among the West African countries to better develop a cohesive response to seaborne lawlessness. The delegates agreed a communiqué calling for a common legal scheme for maritime security among the Gulf of Guinea states.

 

For more news and expert analysis about Nigeria, please see Nigeria Focus and Nigeria Politics & Security.

© 2013 Menas Associates

Nigeria: MEND announces start of Hurricane Exodus

 

The Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta (MEND) claims that it has commenced “Hurricane Exodus”, an operation to wage war “against injustice, corruption, despotism and oppression”.

 

In a 15 June press statement sent via email to several media agencies, by its spokesperson Jomo Gbomo MEND said that it began its “Hurricane Exodus” that morning, when its field operatives “stealthily attached portable military limpet explosives magnetically, to two articulated tankers laden with petrol”. The statement claims that the tankers were in a queue outside the depot of the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation (NNPC) at Abaji on the outskirts of Abuja, waiting to discharge products when they were blown up. It claims that the attack was part of its “Operation Touch and Go” – a part of Hurricane Exodus. It says that this segment is targeted at the downstream sector of the Nigerian oil and gas industry. It warned Nigerians to steer clear of such oil tankers as they may be attacked at any time having become “legitimate targets” in their struggle.

 

According to MEND, it will continue to carry out such attacks until all its demands are met. These demands include: the release of Henry Okah, his brother Charles Okah and others held in connection with the 1 October 2010 Independence day bomb blasts in Abuja; the resignation of “the corrupt and inept Mrs Diezani Alison-Madueke” as minister of petroleum resources; and an “unreserved apology” from the Federal Government of Nigeria for presenting a “forged email” which threatened the South African government, and was purported to have come from MEND. The letter was used as evidence to convict Henry Okah in his trial in Johannesburg.

 

For more news and expert analysis about Nigeria, please see Nigeria Focus and Nigeria Politics & Security.

 

© 2013 Menas Associates

Nigeria: Aliyu Wamako suspended from PDP

 

Barely two weeks after the ruling People's Democratic Party's (PDP) National Working Council (NWC) suspended Rivers State's Governor Rotimi Amaechi from the party, the NWC has now announced the suspension of Sokoto State's Governor Aliyu Wamako. This was announced on 5 June by PDP national publicity secretary, Olisa Metuh, following a meeting of the NWC on the same day.

 

Wamako's suspension is said to be the consequence of “repeated breaches and disregard” of PDP's constitution. The NWC accused Wamako of ignoring invitations and lawful directives of the NWC on several occasions, showing apathy to the affairs of the party and contempt to one of the party's organs.

 

The statement revealed that it follows his unexplained refusal to honour another invitation to appear before it on the same day.

For more news and expert analysis about Nigeria, please see Nigeria Focus and Nigeria Politics & Security.

 

© 2013 Menas Associates

Nigeria: Buhari meets with Kano Governor to discuss merger move

Sources reveal that Gen Muhammadu Buhari, leader of opposition party CPC and would-be 2015 presidential candidate, recently met Governor Rabiu Musa Kwakwanso of Kano State. According to the source, this meeting is part of moves for Kwakwanso to move to the opposition parties' new alliance, shortly after it has been registered as a political party with the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC).

 

It has also been revealed that the merged opposition party is planning to slightly modify its chosen name and acronym – The All Progressives Congress (APC) – because of the controversy that has surrounded the acronym, with the emergence of two political organisations – the African People's Congress (APC) and All Patriotic Citizens (APC) – purportedly claiming first registration rights to the acronym.

 

According to sources, the plan is to retain the first and last letters in the acronym (A and C) but change the second letter (P) to some other suitable word that reflects the merger.

 

For more news and expert analysis about Nigeria, please see Nigeria Focus and Nigeria Politics & Security.

 

© 2013 Menas Associates

More than 50 dead in Boko Haram raid

 

According to a number of sources, 55 people have been killed in Bama, in the north eastern Nigerian state of Borno, in a co-ordinated attack by Boko Haram militants. It is understood that 200 heavily armed members of the Islamist group arrived in the town in the early hours of Tuesday morning and attacked a police station, military barracks and government buildings before freeing 105 inmates. Among the dead are police officers, prison wardens, soldiers, a small number of civilians and 13 members of Boko Haram.

The attack represents the rebels' single most deadly strike since the uprising began in 2009 and possibly the most significant since the Kano bombings in early 2012. It follows a government raid in Baga last month, also in the state of Borno, targeting rebels who had earlier attacked a military patrol. Over 200 people were allegedly killed and thousands of buildings destroyed in what was described by some observers as the government's use of “excessive force”. Similar operations by the authorities in late 2012 were thought to have diminished the threat posed by Boko Haram, who killed an estimated 1,000 people last year.

President Goodluck Jonathan has established a committee to lay out the terms of an amnesty for the group, but so far their leader, Abubakar Shekau, has declined to enter negotiations. Boko Haram wishes to establish an Islamic, Shari'a state in Nigeria, a country roughly divided equally between Christians and Muslims, and has previously carried out several prison breaks to free it members.

For more news and expert analysis about Nigeria, please see Nigeria Focus and Nigeria Politics & Security.

© 2013 Menas Associates

Nigeria: MTN funds expansion

MTN Nigeria, a major player in Nigeria's telecommunications industry, has received a major boost to its expansion plans following acquisition of a $3 billion ( ? 470 billion) loan facility from a consortium of local and international banks.

 

The loan will enable MTN to expand, modernise, and improve its network infrastructure. The $3 billion comprises $1.2 billion in an existing restructured local facility and $1.8 billion in additional facilities. The banks involved are Zenith Bank , with ? 55 billion; Guaranty Trust Bank , with ? 40 billion; First Bank , with ? 40 billion; and Access Bank , with ? 35 billion.

 

Speaking at the signing ceremony held in Lagos on 23 April, MTN CEO Brett Goschen stated that MTN had invested $1.6 billion in 2012 and was looking to invest about $1.5 billion in 2013. The network has been involved in several other similar strategic partnerships with financial institutions, notably a $170 million commercial paper facility secured in 2002 and a $395 million medium-term facility in 2003.

 

With the introduction of mobile number portability in Nigeria on 22 April and recent complaints from users about the seemingly downward spiral of network quality, subscribers will no doubt be pleased that the company is investing massively in improving its network. Though MTN had undertaken an aggressive PR drive to attract customers wishing to migrate from other networks, some subscribers were sceptical that the network could cope with an influx.

 

For more news and expert analysis about Nigeria, please see Nigeria Focus and Nigeria Politics & Security.

 

© 2013 Menas Associates

Nigeria: Threats from Akwa Ibom militants

 

A militant group in the Esit Eket Local Government Area of Akwa Ibom State has written a letter to two oil companies in operation in their community for allegedly not paying royalties. Under the aegis of the Niger Delta Subterranean Force, the group said it would attack the Frontier and Septa Oil and Gas companies if its demands were not met.

The letter was dated 5 March and signed by General Oyobio Oyobio . It warned the managing directors of the two firms that unless the companies provided ? 600 million in royalties and a 100 million naira monthly package for 'settlement of the boys,' it would strike.

'In the next week, we will be ready to attack the pipelines. We are ready to visit the Central Processing Facilities (CPF). If the two companies do not settle [with] us, they should forget about the inauguration of the CPF … because we will attack it.' The group is also pushing for its members to be given the contract to protect the pipelines, stating that it will otherwise blow them up.

For more news and expert analysis about Nigeria, please see Nigeria Focus and Nigeria Politics & Security.

© 2013 Menas Associates

Attack on Abuja headquarters of police's anti-robbery squad

 

Less than 24 hours after the twin suicide bombing there was another deadly attack on a second security installation. In the early hours of Monday 26 November, gunmen attacked the headquarters of the Nigerian Police Force's Special Anti-Robbery Squad (SARS) in the Garki district of Abuja, where suspected terrorists are thought to be held. Initial reports claimed that the gunmen released about 30 detainees in the attack which left two policemen dead. The Deputy Force Public Relations Officer, Frank Mba, reported that 25 detainees had been recaptured and that five were still at large. Two of the gunmen were killed in the ensuing shootout and that the police had now identified the gunmen.

Mba denied reports that terrorists were held in the SARS detention facility as only suspected armed robbers were detained there. Sources have revealed, however, that the deeply embarrassed Nigerian Police Force (NPF) is desperately trying to downplay the number of escapees because it is claimed that over 100 detainees escaped.

One of the escaped detainees is alleged to be the wife of Kabiru Sokoto, said to be the mastermind of the fatal Christmas Day 2011 bomb attack on a church at Madalla in Niger State. In January, he escaped from police custody at Abaji on the outskirts of Abuja before he was eventually re-arrested in February.

For more news and expert analysis about Nigeria, please see Nigeria Focus and Nigeria Politics & Security.

© 2012 Menas Associates

Nigeria: Angry protests in Bakassi

 

With the closure of Nigeria's window of opportunity to appeal the International Court of Justice's (ICJ) decision granting sovereignty of the Bakassi Peninsula to Cameroon, increasing tensions in the region have forced the UN team which is demarcating the maritime boundary to suspend their activities.

On 21 November, local people, angry about Abuja's failure to appeal the ICJ ruling, demonstrated in front of the building in Ikang where members of the demarcation team were meeting local officials. The crowd, composed mainly of youths holding placards condemning the UN's 'contempt' for self-determination of the Bakassi people, prevented the demarcation team from moving to the peninsula.

Their leader, Augustine Omini Iwara, said that it was surprising the demarcation was being undertaken despite the fact that local people had filed a case affirming their right to self-determination.

The crowd was already angered by the presence of three ships carrying Cameroonian gendarmes on to the beaches at Ikang. The ships were reportedly connected with the demarcation process but provoked a confrontation with around 300 local youths. The demarcation committee is now consulting with the Federal Government about its next step.

For more news and expert analysis about Nigeria, please see Nigeria Focus and Nigeria Politics & Security.

© 2012 Menas Associates

Nigeria: Army kills top Boko Haram commander

 

The Nigerian military has announced that it has killed a top Boko Haram commander in a gunfight in Maiduguri. According to spokesman Sagir Musa, a militant leader by the name of Ibn Saleh Ibrahim was killed alongside several other fighters in a military operation involving helicopters and armoured personnel carriers on 16 November. There were no military casualties.

Ibrahim was reportedly responsible for the assassination of Gen. Mamman Shuwa, a hero of the civil war who was gunned down at his house in Maiduguri on 2 November (Nigeria P&S – 09.11.12). The military operation against Ibrahim's Boko Haram fighters was reportedly continuing.

Meanwhile, the US government has expressed its concern over the alleged detentions, mistreatment and killings of Boko Haram suspects by the security forces. A senior State Department official expressed concern over the allegations, contained in a major Human Rights Watch report in October, in a meeting with Foreign Minister Olugbenga Ashiru.

Assistant Secretary of State in the Bureau of Democracy, Human Rights and Labour, Michael Posner, said that terrorism was a serious and complex challenge but that the struggle against Boko Haram could not be won by force alone.

For more news and expert analysis about Nigeria, please see Nigeria Focus and Nigeria Politics & Security.

© 2012 Menas Associates