Libya is going through change and uncertainty

The country is going through an intensive phase of change and uncertainty. A new National Transitional Council (NTC) cabinet is under construction, which ought to herald a more penetrating period of management of the revolutionary cadres towards creating a new society based on principles of personal freedom.

In fact, the general expectations among ordinary Libyans were not high that any change will be for the better. The continued appointment of a string of former office-holders, who had previously been employed by the Qadhafi family, is causing ill-will and deep dissent among the fighting groups who, to a man, do not wish to see Qadhafi's influence perpetuated.

It is, therefore, unlikely that there will be any great lurch into any type of normal economic development which would facilitate a rapid growth of the economy in the short term. This does not, however, exclude some short-term breaks for the economy as it winds itself up into rapid growth in the energy sector once it is clear that hostilities have ended.

Meanwhile, the shadow of the war will be dispersed by some spending, both by Libyan oil companies and overseas investors in Libyan oil but much of this work will be used for reconstruction.

It is unlikely that there will be enough strong growth to create a demand for a more plentiful labour supply or personal incomes which would alleviate some of the difficulties faced by ordinary workers. The outflow of the foreign workforce will complicate the position in the labour market which, in turn, will make recruitment extremely difficult if serious violence persists.

For more news and expert analysis about Libya, please see Libya Focus and Libya Politics & Security.

© 2011 Menas Associates

Libya's elite under attack

Political change is once again a bone of contention in the Qadhafi family. Reports from Tripoli suggest there is a move on hand to disgrace rich and influential members of society for their illegal acquisition of wealth at the expense of the state.

It is alleged that the élite have been involved in arranging lucrative deals in a way that is possible only in the unique circumstances of the Qadhafi regime. It is believed that a rough assessment is being made of the funds controlled by a number of both the Old Guard and some of the more recent administrators/technocrats to enable action to follow against those who are suspected of gross involvement in bribery and corruption.

The mood is said to replicate a similar situation in 2000-01, and could be the motivation for a new assault on the cabinet in general and those ministers who are now in charge of corrupt institutions whose personnel have sold out the interests of the nation for individual gain.

The key to the change of atmosphere in Tripoli is the widely published recent criticism of the Libyan pavilion at the Expo 2010 in Shanghai by Saif al-Islam at the end of September. This rapidly escalated into a thoroughgoing attack on the incompetence and ineptitude of the government's management of national affairs.

Opposition sources have suggested that this opening is being manipulated to set the scene for a change in personnel and structures during the next General People's Congress (GPC). It is seen as a means of creating a role for Saif al-Islam within the formal institutions of state as a saviour of the country and as the president in waiting.

There are inevitable hazards associated with an attempt to disgrace the ministers and the cabinet together with some of the Old Guard, as well as longstanding members of the Revolutionary Committees and luminaries who are attached to the Leader's extended entourage. Many of these groups have a strong interest in retaining the status quo because they could lose out badly from change, and even face severe retribution from their enemies if the regime is altered to become a more legally-controlled and ethically-based system such as that which could prevail under Saif al-Islam.

For more news and expert analysis about Libya, please see Libya Focus and Libya Politics & Security.

© 2010 Menas Associates

Omar Mukhtar memorial creating tensions with the government

Discussion of the location of the Omar Mukhtar memorial has created severe tensions with the government which wants to minimise the hero status of Cyrenaica's most important freedom fighter.

The campaign in Benghazi to protect the site of religious significance is being backed by the use of Facebook as a means of mobilising technology for political dissent. Beyond the discussions about the memorial is the security services' anxiety about keeping firm control of external modern communication systems which cannot be intercepted in Libya.

There are websites that are very critical of the regime and more damagingly, have lampooned the Leader and his family who have been deeply angered by these attacks. It is unlikely, however, that overt opposition in the eastern province will disturb the government, although it is a warning that the grandiose plans developed by the Qadhafi family for the development of Cyrene – which is Libya's second most important archeological site after Leptis Magna - as a cultural and tourist centre might not be accepted without stout opposition.

In general, the political situation is calm and under the firm control of the security authorities. The Qadhafi family continues to have a tight grip on Libya's population. There remains a lack of leadership among the overseas opposition groups so that no obvious threat can be envisaged from that quarter.

For more news and expert analysis about Libya, please see Libya Focus and Libya Politics & Security.

© 2010 Menas Associates