Nigeria: Government fight-back failing

Minister of Finance Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, Minister of Petroleum Resources Diezani Alison-Madueke, and the governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) Sanusi Lamido Sanusi have all given interviews in an effort to persuade citizens to give up the protests.

So far, this strategy has not worked and it appears that the interviews may in fact have had the effect of firing up the protesters' anger against the Federal Government. As each day of the strike passes, the government's stance continues to be one of defiance. Minister for Information Labaran Maku stated that the Federal Government would not be coerced into rescinding the decision.

This may be mere “fighting talk”. For each day that the strike continues, the country's economy continues to suffer. Analysts estimate that if the strike continues at least until 13 th January, the economy would have lost around N1.2 trillion (US$7.4 billion), an amount not far short of the N1.4 trillion (US$8.65 billion) the Federal Government estimated it would save by withdrawing the subsidy.

For many of the young, educated upper and middle-class protestors, the battle isn't only on the streets but has extended to social networking sites, including Facebook and Twitter, and to instant messaging platforms like the Blackberry Messenger (BBM) service. Activists have used such media to exchange information and to disseminate facts and figures supporting the protests.

One such fact is that the mass transit buses, which President Goodluck Jonathan commissioned over the weekend as part of the Federal Government's “palliative measures” to ease the impact of the subsidy removal, are woefully inadequate. Jonathan had announced that the Federal Government had purchased 1,600 mass transit buses but only 1,100 buses have been commissioned which has left observers with the unanswered question of what happened to the other 500.

Most importantly, the inadequacy of such a gesture as a palliative measure has been pointed out. With a population of around 160 million, the provision of 1,600 buses translates into one bus for every 100,000 Nigerians. Activists have also been analysing the 2012 budget for evident waste and, in particular, the recurrent expenditure provisions.

A major point of contention is that the government is asking ordinary Nigerians to bear the brunt of the increase in the cost of living caused by the subsidy removal at a time when the government is still largely wasteful and extravagant in its spending.

Some figures to have been bandied about include the budgetary provision of a feeding allowance for the Presidential Villa of N1 million (US$6,180) per day; N200 million (US$1.2 million) to “water the gardens” of the Presidential Villa; N1.7 billion (US$10.5 million) on trips; and N1.3 billion (US$8 million) on office stationery. Other controversial appropriations include: overhauling of Aso Rock powerhouse generators for N127.5 million (US$786,000); and renovation and refurbishment of the family wing of the main residence at the Presidential Villa at N512.4 million (US$3.2 million).

The list really is endless. Although President Jonathan has announced that there will be some cutbacks, such as a 25 per cent reduction in the basic salaries of political office holders and cutbacks on foreign trips, many ordinary Nigerians are unconvinced that these cuts are commensurate with the hardships caused by the subsidy removal. In any case, it is a well-established fact that one of the largest sources of official income for political holders is not the basic salary but their myriad allowances, which are often far above their basic salaries.

For more news and expert analysis about Nigeria, please see Nigeria Focus and Nigeria Politics & Security.

© 2012 Menas Associates

Egypt: Constitution to be drafted before presidential elections

Further details have emerged about last year's talks between the military rulers and political parties, including the Islamists and liberals, about the timing of the presidential election. Should it be after the drafting of a new constitution or before? According to the Islamist lawyer and presidential hopeful Mohamed Selim El-Awa, who confirmed the meetings took place on 22nd November, it was agreed that the constitution will be drafted first and the presidential elections be held later.

There is logic in this. How can an Egyptian president be elected before a constitution is drawn up to define his powers and responsibilities?

The secularists fear, however, that those who will draw up the constitution will seek to introduce a greater Islamisation of legal code. Last month a group of activists put forward a proposal to bring the presidential elections forward to the end of March.

El-Awa, who is related by marriage to a member of the ruling army council, said that Supreme Council of the Armed Forces (SCAF) had been represented by the army chief of staff Sami Anan, who in effect is the number two in the hierarchy. He met representatives of the FJP, Al Nour, Al Wasat, the liberal Al Wafd and the Democratic Front party.

For its part, the advisory council, which was appointed by the military council, argued that a consensus has to be reached by all parties before the holding of presidential elections. Given the starkly opposing positions it is hard to see how such a consensus can be reached. Instead, the Islamists, with the greatest share of the popular vote, and the military, with the firepower, are in agreement.

For more news and expert analysis about Egypt, please see Egypt Politics & Security.

© 2012 Menas Associates

Militias' future may be in the security forces

The future of the militias is closely tied into the National Transitional Council's (NTC) decision to co-opt them into the security forces. The apparent force of personality of two military leaders –head of the Tripoli Revolutionary Council, Abdullah Nakir, and head of the capital's military council Abdelhakim Belhadj - demonstrates the need for the continuing support for these leaders who certainly do not represent the authorities. It must be expected that conflict will break out if the militias are unconvinced of fair treatment.

The 3rd January inter-militia conflict in Tripoli, which reportedly led to the death of five militiamen, turns out to have been rather different from that reported in the press. Menas Associates sources in Libya understand that although the clash - in which two and not five died - was initially reported as being between members of the Tripoli and Misrata militias, the latter was in fact made up of a group of criminals with no real attachment to the revolutionary movement. Mistakes of this kind by the non-local militias will offer opportunities for further hostilities.

The issue of law and order is confused. The courts are, in fact, currently closed and unless the NTC implements its offer of a pardon to all those innocent people who are currently jailed - which is unlikely - then scope for further mischief is vast. There are likely to be further attacks on jails as relatives try to free their kinsmen In addition, however, the fate of prisoners of war is also a major problem, with many thousands of criminals, fighters and anti-government civilians cooped up together until such time that an amnesty is declared under the authority of Mustafa Abdel Jalil.

The NTC's foreign policy position is largely one of ignorance and incapability of managing affairs using a small cadre of officials originally employed by the Qadhafi authorities. So far, the NTC has made few friends, even in the near Arab world.

Links with Egypt are currently particularly sour despite an urgent need for manual labourers on Libyan farms and in the factories. The Egyptian workforce was knowledgeable and hardworking, and Libya has done itself few favours by taking umbrage at Egypt's giving sanctuary to pro-Libyan refugees.

The government, if it has any logical pattern towards foreign affairs, may be seen as falling in line with US requirements by standing against the Islamists. The Muslim Brotherhood's recent electoral success in both Tunisia and Egypt has made Libya more important to the US in terms of its regional foreign policy. Trying to ensure that it remains secular cannot in any way, however, be viewed as a stabilising influence on Libya or North Africa.

For more news and expert analysis about Libya, please see Libya Focus and Libya Politics & Security.

© 2012 Menas Associates

Brazil: Mercosul summit

The 42nd Mercosul summit was held in Montevideo on 20–21st December, with President Dilm Rousseff in attendance along with her counterparts from Argentina, Paraguay, and Uruguay. The most important political issue addressed was Venezuela's membership in the trading bloc.

The Paraguayan Senate continues to oppose it, as it has for the last three years. At the initiative of Uruguay, and via convoluted legal reasoning, an attempt was made to by-pass parliamentary ratification to permit Venezuela to join. Ecuador's application is also expected. It was decided that about 200 products will be exempted from Mercosul's Common External Tariff and therefore have their tariff raised by up to 35 per cent. This is multilateralised protectionism.

Another decision taken at the summit, at the behest of Argentina, was to prohibit ships bearing the flag of the Falkland Islands (Malvinas) from access to the ports of member countries. This extends a prohibition that has been in force for several years in Argentina. The summit also approved a free trade agreement with the Palestinian Authority (a quid pro quo for having in earlier years approved one with Israel).

The slim results of this Mercosul summit reflect the mediocrity of the trading group's agenda. Shortly after the summit, the Pacific Alliance (Chile, Colombia, Mexico) held its second summit, on 4th December at Mérida, Mexico. Panama indicated it might join. The trade volume of Alliance members may soon exceed that of Mercosul partners. In any event, the very creation of the Alliance may be interpreted as contrary to Brazil's old aspiration to a South American common market.

For more news and expert analysis about Brazil, please see Brazil Focus.

© 2011 Menas Associates

Yemen: Saleh will continue to lead the GPC

President Ali Abdullah Saleh has been playing his usual games. One day he says he will leave Yemen for medical treatment. A few days later he says that he will stay, blaming the opposition for some real or imagined slight. The latest move was that he would remain head of the General People's Congress (GPC) and lead the campaign for Abd al-Rab Mansour Hadi 's election. He claims he needs to be in Yemen to help the transition arrangements and wants to get away from the attention on him and allow the national unity government to get on with its work.

There are difficulties over the question of immunity. The GPC will support the deal when it comes to parliament but the Joint Meeting Parties (JMP) prefer a broader “reconciliation law” that would cover acts committed by some of Saleh's opponents. GPC leaders claim that Saleh's opponents were responsible for the attack on the Nahdain mosque on 3rd June and think the law is designed to prevent them from being prosecuted. The investigation into this is continuing but remains a potential time bomb.

Human rights groups point out that the immunity deal only applies in Yemen and that Saleh could face arrest if he travels abroad – and there are many who would attempt to bring action against him. This may have been the reason why the US administration seemed reluctant to allow Saleh to travel to the US for medical treatment, although it may also have wanted stronger assurances from Saleh that he would honour the transition deal. It may also be mindful of the protests that will come from the streets if Saleh not only receives treatment but also remain free while they are demanding his trial. Formally, the US did not respond to the request for a visa.

The Yemeni government will also have to take regard of a statement by Navi Pillay , the UN high commissioner for human rights: “Amnesties are not permissible if they prevent the prosecution of individuals who may be criminally responsible for international crimes, including war crimes, crimes against humanity, genocide and gross violations of human rights. Based on information we have gathered, there is reason to believe that some of these crimes were committed in Yemen during the period for which an amnesty is under consideration. Such an amnesty would be in violation of Yemen's international human rights obligations.”

For more news and expert analysis about Yemen, please see Yemen Focus.

© 2012 Menas Associates

Algeria: Soltani's MSP to leave presidential alliance

Bouguera Soltani, leader of the MSP (Islamist Movement for Society of Peace), or Hamas in Arabic, is hoping to take advantage of the success of other Islamist parties in other North African countries that have held elections this last year. He has therefore withdrawn his party from the ruling coalition or 'presidential alliance', as it is known, that comprises the FLN, the RND of Prime Minister Ahmed Ouyahia, and his own MSP. The final decision was made by the MSP's shoura (advisory council) at its meeting at the end of December.

Soltani says that he wants to press for constitutional reform to limit the powers of the president. He is on record as saying that he does not believe that Bouteflika is serious about reform and has warned that voters would snub the ballot box in large numbers if political reform is not implemented.

He said: “The regime is not serious when it talks about political reforms. It continues to rule the country as it has always done... People continue to believe that the ballot is not the way for change….. Without serious reforms, the social front will remain unstable.”

Most commentators believe that Soltani's real reason for leaving the coalition, at least for the moment, as being to avoid losing votes in the upcoming elections, or, as he would no doubt word it, to attract more of the country's Islamist voters. His problem is that his party's membership of the unpopular ruling coalition, along with his own association with corruption scandals, could result in a collapse in the MSP vote as the Islamists support alternative parties.

As things stand at the moment, the MSP's departure from the ruling coalition would not strip the government of its majority. Currently, however, the party has a big following among conservative Algerians. Whether they will continue to support the party in the spring election is questionable. Soltani therefore sees his best chance of retaining support as being by trying to distance himself from the coalition. Few Algerians are likely to fall for it and most opinion is that the MSP vote is likely to collapse.

The MSP was founded in 1990 by Mahfoud Nahnah and Algerian members of the Muslim Brotherhood. Nahnah, who died in 2003, changed the party's name from Hamas. The party condemned the 1992 coup that led to the annulment of the 1992 elections, but did join the government coalition in 2004. The MSP currently has four ministers in minor posts.

The FLN General-Secretary, Abdelaziz Belkhadem, is on record as saying that there will be no Islamist tidal wave in the elections and that altogether the Islamists will not win more than 35 per cent of the vote.

For more news and expert analysis about Algeria, please see Algeria Focus and Algeria Politics & Security.

© 2012 Menas Associates

Nigeria: Human Rights Commission condemns crackdown

The Nigerian Human Rights Commission (NHRC), which was set up by the Federal Government, has responded to the forceful crackdown against protesters by the police and other security forces. In a statement released to the media, it stated that: “The National Human Rights Commission affirms that the right to assemble freely and to protest or demonstrate peacefully is a human right recognised and guaranteed within Sections 39-40 of the Constitution of the Federal Republic of Nigeria, 1999 and Articles 9-11 of the African charter on Human and Peoples' Rights, which is domestic law in Nigeria”.

It further stated that the Government, in implementing its obligation, has a duty to “encourage its citizens to channel or express their grievances in a peaceful manner. Therefore, individuals or groups should be free to express their views, offer their criticisms, canvass their ideas for democratic change and improvement, and assemble or protest for these purposes provided they do not seek to propagate these ideas by violent means or in a manner that disturbs public peace, safety or security”.

NHRC went on to reprimand security agencies, saying: “At all times, it remains the obligation and responsibility of security agencies and law enforcement agents to ensure equal protection of all persons, including groups, within Nigeria and afford all the protections they require to exercise their constitutional rights”. The Commission reiterated that law enforcement agents must at all times respect and protect the human rights of all persons; avoid use of excessive force, arbitrary arrests and detention or resort to “third-degree” methods of policing.

For more news and expert analysis about Nigeria, please see Nigeria Focus and Nigeria Politics & Security.

© 2012 Menas Associates