Yemen: Saleh will continue to lead the GPC

President Ali Abdullah Saleh has been playing his usual games. One day he says he will leave Yemen for medical treatment. A few days later he says that he will stay, blaming the opposition for some real or imagined slight. The latest move was that he would remain head of the General People's Congress (GPC) and lead the campaign for Abd al-Rab Mansour Hadi 's election. He claims he needs to be in Yemen to help the transition arrangements and wants to get away from the attention on him and allow the national unity government to get on with its work.

There are difficulties over the question of immunity. The GPC will support the deal when it comes to parliament but the Joint Meeting Parties (JMP) prefer a broader “reconciliation law” that would cover acts committed by some of Saleh's opponents. GPC leaders claim that Saleh's opponents were responsible for the attack on the Nahdain mosque on 3rd June and think the law is designed to prevent them from being prosecuted. The investigation into this is continuing but remains a potential time bomb.

Human rights groups point out that the immunity deal only applies in Yemen and that Saleh could face arrest if he travels abroad – and there are many who would attempt to bring action against him. This may have been the reason why the US administration seemed reluctant to allow Saleh to travel to the US for medical treatment, although it may also have wanted stronger assurances from Saleh that he would honour the transition deal. It may also be mindful of the protests that will come from the streets if Saleh not only receives treatment but also remain free while they are demanding his trial. Formally, the US did not respond to the request for a visa.

The Yemeni government will also have to take regard of a statement by Navi Pillay , the UN high commissioner for human rights: “Amnesties are not permissible if they prevent the prosecution of individuals who may be criminally responsible for international crimes, including war crimes, crimes against humanity, genocide and gross violations of human rights. Based on information we have gathered, there is reason to believe that some of these crimes were committed in Yemen during the period for which an amnesty is under consideration. Such an amnesty would be in violation of Yemen's international human rights obligations.”

For more news and expert analysis about Yemen, please see Yemen Focus.

© 2012 Menas Associates

Yemen: Saleh retires, hurt, to Saudi Arabia, perhaps never to return

President Ali Abdullah Saleh is in Saudi Arabia for treatment for wounds sustained when either a rocket or shell struck a mosque inside the presidential compound on 3rd June. Several senior people with him were severely injured including Ali al-Mujawwar, the prime minister, two of his deputies, Rashad al-Alimi and Sadiq Amin Abu Ras, head of the Shoura Council (upper house of parliament) Abd al-Aziz Abd al-Ghani and the speaker of the lower house, Yahya al-Rai. Thirty-five members of Saleh's family are in Riyadh with him but they do not include his son Ahmad, the commander of the Republican Guard and Special Forces, or his nephews, Ammar, Yahya and Tariq.

The attack took place soon after shelling of the compound of Shaikh Sadiq al-Ahmar, the head of the Al-Hashid tribal confederation, and came after nearly a week of fighting in Sana'a between the Republican Guard and other forces commanded by Saleh's sons and nephews and tribal militia loyal to Sadiq. Saleh's spokesmen have accused the Al-Ahmar of trying to assassinate the president. They have denied this. There is much speculation about who was responsible for the attack but the Al-Ahmar remain the main suspects. There was an attack on Hamid al-Ahmar's compound later in the day by Republican Guards.

The president's supporters at first described his injuries as minor and promised a television address later in the day. Saleh spoke briefly much later. There were no pictures and he sounded very weary. Vice president Abd al-Rab Mansour Hadi is acting head of state, ostensibly until the return of the president. The acting minister of information said that, “The state has its institutions that can deal with these kinds of circumstances and constitutional procedures will be followed.” Others from Saleh's entourage have said he will return after treatment. There is still uncertainty about the seriousness of his wounds. They are not life-threatening but some reports say it will take him weeks to recover. It is, however, far from certain that he will ever return to Yemen.

For more news and expert analysis about Yemen, please see Yemen Focus.

© 2011 Menas Associates