Yemen: Redeveloping Aden

The head of the Aden refinery has said that it is upgrading facilities, building a new power station and enhancing storage capacity as part of a long-term development plan. It is a key demand of southerners that more is invested in ,the port, which has suffered continual decline since its heyday in the mid 1960s.

Despite its great advantages as a port, Aden has fallen so far below the performance of regional competitors that it will be difficult to catch up, except in the very long term – and that requires political stability and massive investment. The opening of the new Omani port of Duqm adds to the now intense competition among regional ports as dropping off points for the very large container ships.

For more news and expert analysis about Yemen, please see Yemen Focus.

© 2014 Menas Associates

Yemen: Protesters fold tents to mark end of the revolution

In a highly symbolic move, the protest camps that have been in Sana'a and some other cities since early 2011 have been dismantled – voluntarily – at least by the Organising Committee of the Youth Revolution. The group sees the restructuring of the armed forces, as completing the revolution's aim of ousting the previous regime. Energies should now be concentrated on building a new and united Yemen. However, it is clear that not all youth organisations supported the move, which has been inspired by elements associated with Islah, which from the beginning were accused by some young people as trying to hijack then revolution. The now active al-Huthi political groups have objected.

 

The normal wrangling of Yemeni politics continues. One recent example is the dispute between the General People's Congress and Joint Meeting Parties over membership of the Supreme National Authority for Combating Corruption. In any event, few people have much confidence that this organisation will be any more effective than previous bodies.

 

For more news and expert analysis about Yemen, please see Yemen Focus.

© 2013 Menas Associates

Yemen: Inspire analysed

Analysts have now had time to take a close look at the latest issue of Inspire (see Yemen Focus March 2013). Global intelligence company Stratfor got it right with this comment: “The new editor, who uses the nom de guerre Yahya Ibrahim, has worked with [Samir] Khan since the first edition of the magazine. He is a native English speaker who is familiar with Western culture and idioms. Ibrahim was clearly influenced by Khan and has attempted to continue Khan's work, but he lacks Khan's acerbic wit and irreverence. In Inspire 10, for example, Ibrahim attempts to replicate the insulting one-page 'advertisements' that Khan included in earlier editions of the magazine — one in particular racially derided US President Barack Obama — but they lack the bite of Khan.”   Inspire seems to be more serious and less edgy than when Khan was in charge – which may, it is to be hoped, dull its appeal among its target audience. New call for release of Yemenis in Guantanamo: There have been some renewed calls in Yemen for the release of some 90 or so Yemenis still at Guantanamo Bay. Their families lobby the Yemen government to intervene on their behalf and this gets a creation profile in the Yemeni media. President Abd Rubuh Hadi has just raised the issue with President Obama. Yemenis now make up nearly two thirds of the remaining prisoners at the facility.   For more news and expert analysis about Yemen, please see Yemen Focus. © 2013 Menas Associates

Yemen: Anti-corruption moves

 

Some of the Yemeni organisations that look at corruption and malpractice make stinging criticisms of parts of the administration. One such in September exposed corruption in the handling of goods at ports, claiming the state lost about 90% of the revenues.

The Supreme National Anti-Corruption Commission wants the prime minister to consider – and thus cancel – some power generation projects. Another organisation has questioned the prices the government is paying for privately generated electricity. This is an awkward one, given the dire and immediate need for more power generation and the current interest being shown by private sector businessmen in proposals to deal with it – mostly on a provincial level. The real need is to make the whole process more transparent so that the public have confidence that the practices of the Saleh era do not carry over into the Hadi presidency.

The anti-corruption body is also reviewing agreements signed between the government and foreign oil companies. There appears to be no specific target in mind but there has been strong criticism within Yemen over the low price received from a South Korean company for gas taken on a long term contracts – a price which is now well below international gas prices. There are also mumblings about details of the Yemeni LNG agreement.

For more news and expert analysis about Yemen, please see Yemen Focus.

© 2012 Menas Associates

Yemen: LNG pipeline attacked again

The Balhaf-Marib LNG pipeline was attacked for the third time this year on 21 August, near Ataq. Some sources blame Al-Qa'ida in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) but oil sector sources think the attack is linked to a tribal dispute. This part of the pipeline runs through an area that the military rarely enters.

 

Militant groups, some linked to AQAP, others not, have operated here and the tribes have previously resisted attempts by the armed forces to main a significant presence. When building the pipeline, Yemen LNG Company had to negotiate passage rights with a variety of tribal groups, with only limited support from the government, whose writ scarcely ran beyond the bigger towns.

 

The company has denied reports of another attack on the line in early September. The government, faced with continuing if lowlevel protests by workers, has banned strikes in the vital oil and gas sector despite union opposition. Yemen needs to extract every dollar it can get from its main exports to make up for the losses on production during the 2011 political crisis and sabotage of pipelines. There are promising signs that output is returning to normal and prices remain buoyant. Fish exports are also looking up.

 

For more news and expert analysis about Yemen, please see Yemen Focus.

© 2012 Menas Associates

Feierstein on international community's role in Yemen

The leading role played by the international community was spelled out by US ambassador Gerald Feierstein in an interview with Al-Sharq al-Awsat:

“We hope that the dialogue will begin after the feast of Ramadan. The second point is to prepare for the national referendum and the elections. This consists of several steps. The Gulf initiative authorised the government to form a higher committee for the elections and the referendum. We are in contact with the government to encourage it to do so. We are also learning about the opinions of the political leaders on this subject. After that, we review and update the voters' register. The international group is ready to work closely with the higher elections and referendum committee to offer assistance in this regard. I hope we will begin this process in September so we will have enough time to prepare a credible voters' register.

“The constitutional amendments or drawing up a draft of the new constitution is another aspect of the second transitional phase. This will be the result of the national dialogue. I hope that the draft of the new constitution will be ready at the beginning of next year so it can be ratified in the general referendum. We also mention the work related to the restructuring of the armed forces and the security forces. We are working to finalise this with a number of institutions in the defence ministry and the interior ministry, and we are satisfied with what has been accomplished.

“Our impression regarding the articles of the Gulf initiative that have been accomplished is extremely positive. We are on the right road to accomplish many more of the resolutions of the initiative within the set deadlines until the end of the transitional phase by the beginning of February 2014.”

For more news and expert analysis about Yemen, please see Yemen Focus.

© 2012 Menas Associates

Yemen: Suicide bomber kills 45 in Abyan

Yemen's government has blamed al-Qa'ida for a suicide bombing that has claimed at least 45 lives in the southern province of Abyan. Dozens more people were injured in the attack on a funeral in the city of Jaar.

It is thought that the bomber detonated an explosive belt during the service held by a tribal militia that supported the army during recent fighting.

In a statemtn, local governor Jamal al-Aqal said that an investigation had been opened into the "criminal and cowardly" attack on the service. According to an unnamed witness: "Bodies were flying in all directions because the explosion was so powerful."

Earlier this year, Yemen's army carried out a major offensive against Islamist militants in Abyan, taking control of the region in June with the help of civilian militias comprised of local tribesmen.

The latest attack, however, has raised fears that Ansar al-Sharia remains active in the area. Groups belonging to the al-Qa'ida have taken advantage of the security vacuum in the country, which began during a year of protests against the former president Ali Abdullah Saleh.

Upon taking power the new President Abdrabuh Mansur Hadi pledged his forces would crush the militants, but it seems the fight is ongoing.

The US has used its drones in the region to support the military campaign. According to Yemeni officials, just days ago, five alleged al-Qa'ida militants were killed in a suspected US drone strike. The drone reportedly targeted their vehicle in Hadramawt.

Sources: Agence France-Presse, BBC News, Reuters

For more news and expert analysis about Yemen, please see Yemen Focus.

Yemen: Silence on transitional justice

The draft bill on transitional justice was sent to parliament in the spring but little has been heard since. It appears to be in the in-trays of President Abd al-Rab Mansour Hadi and Prime Minister Mohammed Basindwa, probably in the 'too difficult' category.

It will have to be sent to parliament in the next few weeks but it will cause a lot of difficulty because of contradictions behind the bill. Ali Abdullah Saleh and his associates have been granted immunity but there are demands that they be held accountable in some way for their misdeeds. The political elite may understand the need for a pragmatic approach but large sections of the population do not. One who doesn't is Nobel laureate Tawakkul Karman.

A video has appeared on YouTube – and been given some publicity in Yemen – of what appears to be human rights abuses carried out by soldiers of the First Armoured Division commanded by General Ali Mohsen against revolutionaries who did not welcome his support. Revolutionaries have also accused Islah of trying to force the removal of protesters in Change Square.

For more news and expert analysis about Yemen, please see Yemen Focus.

© 2012 Menas Associates

Yemen: Major terrorist attack fails to intimidate the regime

A suicide bomber managed to infiltrate arehearsal for the 21 May Unity Day parade in Sab'in Square in Sana'a two days before the event and blew himself up. He killed at least 100 soldiers and wounded up to 350 others. Both Al-Qa'ida in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) and Ansar al-Shariah claimed responsibility for the attack, which they said was in retaliation for the escalation in military action (which it described as American-led) against Ansar in Abyan.

There are conflicting reports about what happened and whether or not other suicide bombers may have tried and failed to attack the soldiers. AQAP says that the main target was the minister of defence but eye-witnesses noted that the bomber inserted himself into a group of soldiers some 500 metres from where the minister was standing. There were reports before the event that Yemeni security forces were looking for suicide bombers and reports since of the arrest of other bombers who failed to get into the parade rehearsal. Most of those killed or wounded appear to belong to the Central Security Organisation (CSO). Many of the injured have been flow abroad for treatment.

The parade went ahead, though it was switched to the more secure location of the Aviation Academy, in an area controlled by General Ali Mohsen 's First Armoured Division. The number of participants was greatly reduced, with most soldiers excluded. President Abd al-Rab Mansour Hadi , accompanied by his ministers and political, security and military leaders (from different persuasions and loyalties) attended in a gesture of solidarity and defiance. Security was in the hands of the Political Security Organisation, instead of the CSO. The chief of staff, General Ahmad al-Ashwal , said that the parade was a “response to the terrorists' savage suicide bombing in Al-Saba'in that was aimed at stopping the unity celebrations”. He added that it would not stop the war against AQAP and Ansar in Abyan.

Initial reports said that the bomber was Amir al- Din al-Warfi from Ibb, who had spent a period in prison for his links to Al-Qa'ida. This was quickly corrected after AQAP put out a statement naming the bomber as Haytham Hamed Hussein Mafurrah , who may have been a member of the CSO.

T here can have been few such devastating attacks by a single bomber. It says much about Yemen that such an attack could take place – and that it has not deflected the government, the international community or most Yemenis from pressing on with all parts of the transition process. It was a singular success for AQAP and it no doubt had in mind the symbolic importance of Unity Day in the eyes of south Yemenis. On the other hand, it has led to a new determination by Hadi and his international allies to eliminate AQAP and defeat Ansar al- Shariah. AQAP will no doubt plan further attacks – as it has done in Iraq and Afghanistan in not dissimilar circumstances. Yemeni security forces have strengthened checkpoints around Sana'a.

For more news and expert analysis about Yemen, please see Yemen Focus.

© 2012 Menas Associates

Yemen: At least 63 dead in suicide bomb attack in Sana'a

According to Yemeni officials, at least 63 people have been killed in a suicide bomb attack during a rehearsal for a military parade in Sana'a. A suicide bomber, reportedly wearing an army uniform, detonated a bomb among a group of soldiers at al-Sabin Square, near the presidential palace.

Witnesses reported that the remains of the victims were scattered across the Square, as ambulances rushed to the area to take the dozens of wounded to hospital. This latest attack has been the deadliest in the capital since President Abdrabbuh Mansour Hadi took power in February.

In recent months, there have been almost daily casualties in battles in the mountainous southern desert and towns between government forces, backed by US military advisers, and militants linked to al-Qa'ida. Sana'a, however, has been relatively quiet up to now. Some suggest that the latest attack is a message to the new president the he can expect more confrontations between the army and the militants.

Speaking about the incident, Col Amin al-Alghabati said: “We were in a parade, suddenly there was a huge explosion. Dozens of our men were killed. We tried to help them…The suicide bomber was dressed in a military uniform. He had a belt of explosives underneath.”

Yemen's Defence Minister Nasser Ahmed and the army chief-of-staff were reportedly in the Square at the time, but were not hurt. According to medical officials quoted by AFP news agency at least 96 soldiers had been killed and 300 wounded, who they said were being treated in seven hospitals across Sana'a.

Yemeni military personnel had been practising for a parade for National Unity Day on Tuesday 22nd May, which marks the anniversary of the 1990 unification of the Marxist People's Democratic Republic of Yemen, also known as South Yemen, and the Yemen Arab Republic, known as North Yemen.

Today's attack comes just over a week after the military launched an offensive against Islamist militants linked to al-Qa'ida in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) in the southern province of Abyan.

No group has claimed responsibility for the bombing.

Sources: BBC News, Reuters, AFP

For more news and expert analysis about Yemen, please see Yemen Focus.

Drone strike in Yemen kills two suspected militants

According to a number of reports, a drone strike in eastern Yemen has killed two alleged al-Qa'ida militants. A security official told AFP news agency that the unmanned aircraft hit a car in the province of Hadramout. He noted that the strike caused a number of subsequent blasts as the vehicle was reportedly carrying explosives.

A week ago, the Yemeni army launched an offensive to wrest control of cities in south Yemen from fighters belonging to the al-Qa'ida in the Arabian Peninsula. Both Washington and Sana'a deny there are drones deployed in Yemen, but there are wide reports of their use.

Additionally, some Yemeni officials and Western diplomats claim that US military specialists are closely involved in the Yemeni government's campaign against Qa'ida militants.

Over the past year, Yemen has been plagued by political upheaval and protests, which ousted long-term Yemeni leader Ali Abdullah Saleh. A newly-elected government is under pressure from the US to curb militant activity across the country.

Al-Qa'ida militants have taken advantage of the upheaval and breakdown of central government control to gain ground across Yemen, which is now considered to be the stronghold of al-Qa'ida in the Arabian Peninsula.

Suorces: AFP, BBC News, Reuters

For more news and expert analysis about Yemen, please see Yemen Focus.

Yemen: Patronage and tribes

Nadwa al-Dawsari has produced an excellent report on the tribal system for the Carnegie Endowment, Tribal Governance and Stability in Yemen*. She shows how, in the absence of an effective state, tribes look after their own affairs and how when the government moved out of parts of Yemen in 2011 tribes co-operated to cope. They also have acted as mediators to prevent disputes escalating in areas contested by Al-Huthi and Islah-backed tribes. She also throws new light on how tribal actors, not the armed forces, prevented militants from Ansar al-Shariah seizing large parts of Rada'a earlier this year and then negotiated a settlement. It appears that Tariq al-Dhabi, the leader, lost his life when he lost the protection of the tribes after he breached the agreement.

The Saleh system developed over 33 years was based on co-opting local leaders – usually tribal – and providing them in exchange for support and loyalty with access to government resources, whether in the form, of cash, jobs, contracts or favours. Many tribal leaders received direct subsidies. It was all fed by oil income, at least until recently. Al-Dawsari describes how some tribal leaders, brought into the patronage system, have moved to Sana'a to play in national politics and business but cut themselves off from tribal roots, undermining their standing – and, when the money runs out, their influence. The 2012 budget allocated YR13 billion for payments to tribal shaikhs – although the prime minister says the figure will be cut drastically.

There havem been demonstrations calling for an end to these payments. He may find this difficult to implement. Al-Dawsari's conclusion is addressed to the international community. “Evidence about the role performed by tribes in Yemen challenges two major assumptions: that Yemen is a lawless country and that tribes and the tribal system undermine stability and state building. On the contrary, in a country like Yemen, where the state is weak, the tribal system — especially tribal conflict resolution mechanisms — can help promote national reconciliation, stability, and even state building. As the United Nations and the international community try to help Yemen in its critical transition and state-building process, policymakers and practitioners need to explore ways in which the traditional system can complement and strengthen this process.”

What she does not discuss is how the patronage system will evolve under President Abd al-Rab Mansour Hadi and perhaps eventually a more democratic regime. For the moment, the state subsidies will continue to flow, as will those from Saudi Arabia as well as people such as Sadiq and Hamid al-Ahmar, who have their own sources and networks of patronage.

*http://carnegieendowment.org/2012/04/24/tribal-governance-and-stability-in-yemen

For more news and expert analysis about Yemen, please see Yemen Focus.

© 2012 Menas Associates

Yemeni security forces are targeting al'Qa'ida militants in the south

According to Yemeni officials, about 40 al-Qa'ida militants have been killed in a number of air raids in the mountainous part of the south. It is believed that the government forces have taken hold of an al-Qa'ida base of al-Rahha after three days of attacks. The strikes follow an assault on a nearby army base that left 30 people dead.

Since President Abdrabbu Mansour Hadi took office in February, militant groups have renewed attacks across the country.

Reports about the number of militants killed vary. One unnamed Yemeni official told AFP news agency that 38 militants had died, while another said 43 people had been killed.

Militant groups have taken advantage of on-going political turmoil and protests. In particular, a group connected to the al-Qa'ida called Ansar al-Sharia has been increasing its influence in southern Yemen over the past year.

The US has been encouraging the Yemeni authorities to fortify their efforts in tackling militant activities, as well as reportedly intensifying its own drone strikes. But the on-going tension within the country's political and military establishments is stifling the new government's efforts to curtain and control the militants.

Sources: AFP, BBC News, Reuters

For more news and expert analysis about Yemen, please see Yemen Focus.

Saudi Arabia's deputy consul abducted in Aden

Saudi Arabia's deputy consul Abdullah al-Khalidi has been abducted in the southern city of Aden. According to police officials in the city's Mansoura district, gunmen seized al-Khalidi as he was about to get into his car. They fled the scene in another vehicle. A rescue operation is under way to find the official.

Aden is a large city closest to the Abyan province, where government forces have been working to control militant groups linked to Al-Qa'ida. It is thought that in the past year alone these groups have consolidated their power over a number of towns in the region, including Zinjibar.

The situation in Yemen remains troubled, with kidnappings becoming more common as lawlessness increases. Kidnap victims are often used as bargaining tools in disputes between rival factions and groups.

Earlier today, Saudi Arabia announced that it would provide Yemen with all its petroleum needs for two months. The deal was agreed during a meeting between Saudi Arabia's King Abdullah and Yemen's President Abd-Rabbu Mansour Hadi.

Sources: BBC News, Reuters, WSJ

For more news and expert analysis about Yemen, please see Yemen Focus.

Yemen: More than 100 killed in clashes

According to Yemeni officials, the number of people killed in the clashes between security forces and suspected Al-Qa'ida militants has risen to more than 100. Dozens of soldiers were killed in the fighting at an army post in southern Yemen and 50 were reportedly taken prisoner.

It is estimated that at least 20 of the suspected al-Qa'ida members died. According to the BBC, some of the militants may also have links with former president Ali Abdullah Saleh, who surrendered power only a week ago.

The fighting occurred in the southern province of Abyan, west of the provincial capital and militant-held town of Zinjibar. It is thought that the clashes ensued after twin suicide bombings aimed at military posts in Zinjibar.

It is also thought that the militants appropriated some of the army's heavy weaponry before returning to Zinjibar and were helped by army leaders, who served under Saleh.

Islamist began taking control of Abyan last year and the country's security forces have been involved in trying to regain control ever since.

Sources: BBC News, AFP, AP

For more news and expert analysis about Yemen, please see Yemen Focus.

Yemeni voters go to the polls to choose new leader

Today is a momentous day as Yemeni voters go to the polls to elect a new president to replace former leader Ali Abdullah Saleh. Voters are expected to rubber-stamp Vice President Abdrabbuh Mansour Hadi, the only candidate in the poll.

Tight security measures were set in place before crowds took to the polling stations this morning, in the capital city of Sana'a. The voting comes a year after ongoing anti-government demonstrations. New outbreaks of violence were recorded in the south on Monday 20th February ahead of the voting. One person is said to have been killed.

According to the BBC, the situation in Sana'a is relatively peaceful. The separatist Southern Movement and the northern Shi'a rebels, however, have called on Yemenis to boycott the poll.

It would seem that most of the anti-government demonstrators – who took part in the protests that began in January 2012 – are backing Hadi, who is from the south and has already called for dialogue with the local rebels.

Hadi is the only candidate, but the majority of the country seems enthusiastic about the prospect of him taking over from Saleh, who in theory is no longer the country's leader, but who still exerts substantial influence over the military and his former personnel.

Yemen is in a bad way, the country's economy is depleted, insecurity is rife and the al-Qa'ida militants have recently taken control of two districts. The country's new president will face a number of problems before Yemen regains stability.

Sources: BBC News, AFP, Bloomberg

For more news and expert analysis about Yemen, please see Yemen Focus.

Yemen: At least 13 Al-Qa'ida militants killed in air strike

According to Yemeni officials, at least 13 Al-Qa'ida militants have been killed in air strikes in the south of the country. One tribal leader said that at least four of the victims were local Al-Qa'ida chiefs.

The attack reportedly took place in the Abyan province. Islamists began taking control of parts of Abyan last year. Security forces have tried unsuccessfully to push them out and suffered heavy losses.

The details about the attack are yet to be confirmed but according to a number of sources a convoy of two cars was struck east of Lawdar city. AFP news agency, however, reported that a control post and a school hosting a midnight meeting of local al-Qa'ida chiefs and fighters were targeted in four overnight raids.

It was reported that one al-Qa'ida leader by the name of Monem al-Fahtani was among the dead. A source told AFP: "We think they were carried out by American planes.”

The US is thought to regularly conduct such drone attacks on suspected al-Qa'ida militants; an attack of this nature last year killed al-Qa'ida chief Anwar al-Awlaki. Some are concerned that the group have fortified their position in southern and eastern parts of Yemen during the protests last year.

Following months of upheaval in the country, last November President Ali Abdulah Saleh bowed to pressure to hand over power to his deputy. The former Yemeni ruler is now in the US for medical treatment after sustaining injuries in a bombing at the presidential palace in Sana'a, in June.

Sources: Reuters, AFP, BBC News

For more news and expert analysis about Yemen, please see Yemen Focus.

Yemen: Saleh will continue to lead the GPC

President Ali Abdullah Saleh has been playing his usual games. One day he says he will leave Yemen for medical treatment. A few days later he says that he will stay, blaming the opposition for some real or imagined slight. The latest move was that he would remain head of the General People's Congress (GPC) and lead the campaign for Abd al-Rab Mansour Hadi 's election. He claims he needs to be in Yemen to help the transition arrangements and wants to get away from the attention on him and allow the national unity government to get on with its work.

There are difficulties over the question of immunity. The GPC will support the deal when it comes to parliament but the Joint Meeting Parties (JMP) prefer a broader “reconciliation law” that would cover acts committed by some of Saleh's opponents. GPC leaders claim that Saleh's opponents were responsible for the attack on the Nahdain mosque on 3rd June and think the law is designed to prevent them from being prosecuted. The investigation into this is continuing but remains a potential time bomb.

Human rights groups point out that the immunity deal only applies in Yemen and that Saleh could face arrest if he travels abroad – and there are many who would attempt to bring action against him. This may have been the reason why the US administration seemed reluctant to allow Saleh to travel to the US for medical treatment, although it may also have wanted stronger assurances from Saleh that he would honour the transition deal. It may also be mindful of the protests that will come from the streets if Saleh not only receives treatment but also remain free while they are demanding his trial. Formally, the US did not respond to the request for a visa.

The Yemeni government will also have to take regard of a statement by Navi Pillay , the UN high commissioner for human rights: “Amnesties are not permissible if they prevent the prosecution of individuals who may be criminally responsible for international crimes, including war crimes, crimes against humanity, genocide and gross violations of human rights. Based on information we have gathered, there is reason to believe that some of these crimes were committed in Yemen during the period for which an amnesty is under consideration. Such an amnesty would be in violation of Yemen's international human rights obligations.”

For more news and expert analysis about Yemen, please see Yemen Focus.

© 2012 Menas Associates

Yemen: Al-Qa'ida militants break out of prison in Aden

Yemeni officials have confirmed that 12 Al-Qa'ida militants have broken out of prison in the southern city of Aden. The militants and two other accomplices escaped through a six metre tunnel dug from the yard at the city's central prison.

The officials added that the militants were being tried for bank robbery or were charged with assassinations of security officers. In June, al–Qa'ida members raided the central jail in the southern city Mukalla, freeing dozens of prisoners.

The security situation in the country is deteriorating. Yemen's army has been inovleved in ongoing fighting with al-Qa'ida militants around the country for months. Yemen is undergoing a political crisis, which has incited insurgency in the north, a separatist movement in the south, nationwide protests calling for reform and free elections and heavy conflicts between different factions in the capital Sana'a.

Last month, President Ali Abdullah Saleh agreed to to hand his powers to his deputy and quit within 90 days. The most violent finding between security forces and the militants were reported in the city of Zinjibar, the capital of Abyan province.

According to the UN, suspected Al-Qaeda fighters have displaced around 45,000 people in southern Yemen alone.

Sources: BBC News, Reuters, WSJ

For more news and expert analysis about Yemen, please see Yemen Focus.

Yemen: Nexen may leave, Total hopes for extension

Canadian oil company Nexen, which has been active in Yemen since 1987, has announced that it is “reconsidering” its position after it was prevented from renewing its concession for the Masila oil field, which was due to end on 17th December. The company said that, “while we are disappointed we did not receive an extension, we are proud of the accomplishments we’ve achieved there. Our operations at Masila have generated significant value for our company, enabling us to deploy the cash flow to build our current portfolio of legacy assets.” The government has set up Masila Company for Petroleum Exploration and Production (PetroMasila) to take over the field and its proceeds will go to the ministry of finance. Production at the field has dropped to only about 10 per cent of its 2003 peak of 225,000 b/d. Nexen still has another small field at East Al- Hajr, producing 6,000–8,000 b/d.

Earlier this year, Yemeni government sources were signalling that the concession would be renewed. More recently, Nexen indicated that it was planning for a withdrawal should negotiations fail, suggesting that it did not expect to win. It is possible that the government desperately needs as much revenue as it can get from the field to make up for the reduction in income as Yemen’s other oil exports fall. The opposition says that the people will not see any of the money, as it will be squandered by the regime for political purposes.

The affair sends a very bad signal to other companies still looking to enter Yemen, either to farm into existing concessions or try to get new ones. Others are interested in Yemen’s considerable mining potential. Yemen clearly needs to do all it can to encourage foreign investment in both building on the promise of the transition arrangements and the international willingness to help Yemen overcome its problems.

Gas exports, which will be of increasing importance to Yemen, have not been interrupted. Total is negotiating arrangements over its oil concessions. This will no doubt be helped by the high-profile (for Yemen in these dangerous days) visit by the French ambassador to its Block 10 field in Hadhramaut.

For more news and expert analysis about Yemen, please see Yemen Focus.

© 2011 Menas Associates