Libya's institutions under pressure as elections draw closer

There is continuing disintegration of Libya's institutions as the elections come closer and pressure grows for as many of the electorate as possible to participate in the ballot.

On paper the spread of support for regional semi-autonomy is a damaging departure for those who wish for a simple majority to settle the issue across the country. Most of the support, however, for the federalists remains in the hands of the people of the east and in one or two other enclaves. Those who would not contemplate the division of the national territory merely to satisfy discrete groups and other dissenters will remain strongly in support of a unitary power base. Fortunately there is just about sufficient backing for a parliamentary or Islamist solution within the new constitution to give some strength of belief in the likelihood of a national vote without a federal component.

The strains produced by the confrontation of political parties and individuals taking part in the elections will produce a great deal of tension which could, at time, be violent. Mustafa Abdel Jalil has the ability to keep the aims of the National Transitional Council (NTC) strictly on target but, if he fails in this, then flash points of considerable proportions will exist.

An immediate threat to the NTC is the persistence of the militia groups who are still heavily armed and assertive. They have the potential to disrupt events surrounding the election and the regime itself is powerless to stop them.

For more news and expert analysis about Libya, please see Libya Focus and Libya Politics & Security.

© 2012 Menas Associates

Libyan leader visits Algiers

Libya's National Transitional Council (NTC) leader Mustafa Abdel Jalil and fellow NTC member, Salem Messaoud Kenane, arrived in Algiers on Sunday 15 April for a two day visit. At the end of talks on Monday 16 April, Abdel Jalil said that he was confident that Algeria would not shelter anyone who poses a threat to his country, in a reference to Mu'ammar Qadhafi's family members who were granted asylum by Algiers.

"We appreciate the humanitarian position of Algeria for hosting the families, including women and children, but we are convinced that it would not shelter those who represent a threat for Libya's security," said Abdel Jalil after meeting President Abdelaziz Bouteflika. He went on to say: "We agreed that what constitutes a threat for Libya through financing or through subversion would not have a place in the Algerian territory."

Several of Qadhafi family members, including his widow Safiya, firebrand daughter Aisha, and sons Mohamed and Hannibal, fled to Algeria in late August. Algeria has twice had to reprimand Aisha for calling on Libyans to revolt against the transitional council which overthrew her father. Libya has been calling for the repatriation of Aisha and other members of the Qadhafi clan. According to media reports, however, Abdel Jalil does not appear to have publicly made such a request during his visit to Algiers.

Instead he underlined the "deep historic relations" between the two countries. In a joint statement quoted by the Algerian Press Service (APS) the Libyan and Algerian officials agreed to cooperate on security issues and fight extremism. The cooperation will include the fight against organised crime, arms and drug trafficking, clandestine migration and smuggling. How effective such cooperation will fare in practice is highly debatable, especially as security in Libya's southern and many other border regions is seemingly in the hands of militias whose loyalty to and concern for any central authority is highly questionable.

For more news and expert analysis about Algeria, please see Algeria Focus and Algeria Politics & Security.

© 2012 Menas Associates

GCC continue to support the new Libya; albeit selectively

The closeness of the connections between Libya's rebels and the UAE developed early during the war, and particularly in relation to the supply of weapons to the rebel forces. The assistance came at the very beginning of hostilities when the fate of the coast road on the eastern side of the Gulf of Sirte was under severe pressure from Colonel Mu'ammar Qadhafi forces. The thanks for this assistance from the UAE were conveyed to the retiring UAE ambassador to Libya, Sultan Rashid al-Kaytoub, who was speaking on 11 March during a farewell call on the National Transitional Council (NTC) chairman Mustafa Abdel Jalil.

The Emirates, but mainly Qatar, chose to play an overtly pro- revolutionary role at a time of great need. The immediate delivery of tanks and armoured personnel carriers to strengthen the revolutionary forces was very effective. Since then, Qatar has retained a special position of influence, albeit less publicly than before. The Qatari connection with, and support for, Libya's Islamists has, however, not been universally popular. Some Libyan analysts argue that the Qatari government are well intentioned but that it has been somewhat naïve, and has been unduly influenced by expatriate Libyans who have persuade Doha to support a couple of post-revolutionary political parties to the exclusion of others.

For more news and expert analysis about Libya, please see Libya Focus and Libya Politics & Security.

© 2012 Menas Associates

Libya's budget deficit to reach $10 billion

According to Libya's government the country's budget deficit will be $10 billion this year, as the it struggles to pay its public sector workers and meet energy costs. Speaking about the issue, National Transitional Council's (NTC) head Mustafa Abdel Jalil told French newspaper Figaro that the country has only recovered a fraction of $100 billion in assets frozen abroad during the civil war.

Abdel Jalil noted: “The production of oil has brought in $4 billion in the last five months, while the salaries of civil servants are $22 billion a year and spending on electricity and fuel $14 billion...The budget being prepared should be in deficit of $10 billion.”

On Monday 6th February, International Monetary Fund (IMF) said that restoring order to oil and gas production in Libya is central to rebuilding the country's infrastructure, which has endured considerable damage during the eight months of civil war.

Speaking on January 19th, Libya's Central Bank governor Saddeq Omar Elkaber, said that the government's 2012 budget would register a 7 billion dinar ($5.6 billion) deficit and that the lifting of UN sanctions on the central bank's assets had unfrozen 95 per cent of its $100 billion in assets.

The government, however, is in the process of recovering frozen funds. Abdel Jalil told the media: "Only $6 billion has been repatriated. We're still working to recover the rest.” He also said that local councils were putting together organisational structures and once they were in place money would be injected to pay civil servants. He added that the process should be completed by 17th February.

The NTC won NATO's backing with the removal of Colonel Mu'ammar Qadhafi last year, but it has to restore order in the country and disarm the various militia groups. Abdel Jalil noted that it would be easier to amalgamate militias into the police and national army. He added: “Within two months we think we will have incorporated 60-70 per cent of the revolutionaries.”

Sources: Reuters, Albawaba, WSJ

For more news and expert analysis about Libya, please see Libya Focus and Libya Politics & Security.

Militias' future may be in the security forces

The future of the militias is closely tied into the National Transitional Council's (NTC) decision to co-opt them into the security forces. The apparent force of personality of two military leaders –head of the Tripoli Revolutionary Council, Abdullah Nakir, and head of the capital's military council Abdelhakim Belhadj - demonstrates the need for the continuing support for these leaders who certainly do not represent the authorities. It must be expected that conflict will break out if the militias are unconvinced of fair treatment.

The 3rd January inter-militia conflict in Tripoli, which reportedly led to the death of five militiamen, turns out to have been rather different from that reported in the press. Menas Associates sources in Libya understand that although the clash - in which two and not five died - was initially reported as being between members of the Tripoli and Misrata militias, the latter was in fact made up of a group of criminals with no real attachment to the revolutionary movement. Mistakes of this kind by the non-local militias will offer opportunities for further hostilities.

The issue of law and order is confused. The courts are, in fact, currently closed and unless the NTC implements its offer of a pardon to all those innocent people who are currently jailed - which is unlikely - then scope for further mischief is vast. There are likely to be further attacks on jails as relatives try to free their kinsmen In addition, however, the fate of prisoners of war is also a major problem, with many thousands of criminals, fighters and anti-government civilians cooped up together until such time that an amnesty is declared under the authority of Mustafa Abdel Jalil.

The NTC's foreign policy position is largely one of ignorance and incapability of managing affairs using a small cadre of officials originally employed by the Qadhafi authorities. So far, the NTC has made few friends, even in the near Arab world.

Links with Egypt are currently particularly sour despite an urgent need for manual labourers on Libyan farms and in the factories. The Egyptian workforce was knowledgeable and hardworking, and Libya has done itself few favours by taking umbrage at Egypt's giving sanctuary to pro-Libyan refugees.

The government, if it has any logical pattern towards foreign affairs, may be seen as falling in line with US requirements by standing against the Islamists. The Muslim Brotherhood's recent electoral success in both Tunisia and Egypt has made Libya more important to the US in terms of its regional foreign policy. Trying to ensure that it remains secular cannot in any way, however, be viewed as a stabilising influence on Libya or North Africa.

For more news and expert analysis about Libya, please see Libya Focus and Libya Politics & Security.

© 2012 Menas Associates

Libya's new Prime Minister to announce government by the end of November

The newly appointed prime minister, Dr Abdel Rahim al-Keib, has not yet officially announced his new cabinet. He has told various press outlets that he is assembling a list of candidates and hopes to announce his government by 23rd November.

His predecessor, Mahmoud Jibril, who resigned following the declaration of Libya's full liberation, has expressed concern at the lengthy transition period. The timeline for elections, not scheduled to take place until a new constitution is drawn up which could take longer than the envisaged eight months, is of particular concern. Jibril also worries about the vacuum that has been left by the absence of a formal governmental structure.

Jibril has also been quoted as criticising Qatar, the National Transitional Council's (NTC) key foreign supporter, and has been repeating the unsubstantiated and ridiculous rumours that Colonel Mu'ammar Qadhafi's death was somehow orchestrated by the foreign governments who had previously supported him. An investigation into how the former Leader died and the circumstances surrounding his capture and death has yet to begin.

Foreign governments and multilateral organisations have continued to support the NTC. The EU is the latest organisation to send representatives to Libya and it has officially opened a new EU delegation in Tripoli.

The EU's High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, Baroness Catherine Ashton, visited Tripoli on 12th November to open the new delegation. She also took part in a women's forum, stressing that the EU was keen to work with Libya in forming a new democracy and civil society, particularly with women and young people.

She also met with NTC chairman Mustafa Abdel Jalil, and Dr al-Keib. This preceded the EU Foreign Affairs Council meeting on 14th November. EU foreign ministers met in Brussels to discuss their relationship with Libya. In a closing statement, the Council of the European Union said that the EU was 'committed to deepening and strengthening its relationship with the Libyan people'. It also stressed the importance of EU-Libya ties through the Mediterranean Union.

For more news and expert analysis about Libya, please see Libya Focus and Libya Politics & Security.

© 2011 Menas Associates

Fighting continues in key battle areas

Fighting continues in key battle areas of Sirte and Bani Walid. Although interim leader, Mustafa Abdel Jalil, emphasised to journalists in Tripoli that National Transitional Council (NTC) is making headway in Sirte, it is evident that his claims that fighting would be over at the end of this week are not concrete predictions. Bani Walid continues to be mostly under siege. It is largely considered to be less of a prize than Sirte, given that there are only few major routes in its environs.

In Sirte, yet another push towards the centre was delayed on 8th October by a sandstorm, which affected visibility for both sides. On 9th October, however, despite coming under heavy sniper fire, NTC fighters reportedly took the al Giza district. NTC officials also reported the symbolic capture of Sirte University, Ibn Sina hospital and the Ouagadougou Halls, from which it is believed that resistance was being directed by pro Colonel Mu'ammar Qadhafi forces.

If this position can be held, Qadhafi loyalists are left only with a Qadhafi compound and a small residential area in its vicinity.This will deal a psychological blow, particularly as the Ouagadougou centre was a showpiece of the Qadhafi regime, used for many international engagements. Pro-Qadhafi soldiers have been joined by civilians in attacks on the NTC fighters.

Many civilians in Sirte appear to fear reprisals from NTC forces. Whether this fear stems from Qadhafi's propaganda or is based in reality remains to be seen. Revolutionary fighters have received losses in counter attacks. Figures estimated on 9th October suggest 17 dead and 87 wounded during the day's fighting.

On 6th October, a Syrian based satellite channel broadcast the first message from Qadhafi for some time. In the poor quality recording, the voice purporting to be that of the Libyan Leader called on Libyans to resist the NTC, join in marches against the interim government and to restore the 'green flag'. Qadhafi called conditions in Libya 'unbearable' and claimed that his forces would be launching an attack to take the city of Sirte following Friday prayers. So far, attacks by loyalist fighters have been fierce but not entirely successful.

For more news and expert analysis about Libya, please see Libya Focus and Libya Politics & Security.

© 2011 Menas Associates

Libya: NTC leader sacks cabinet

According to the latest news reports from Libya, Leader of the National Transitional Council (NTC) Mustafa Abdel Jalil has dismissed his executive committee, equivalent of a ministerial cabinet. The move is thought to have been prompted by the killing of rebel military chief Gen Abdel Fattah Younes.

There has been speculation among the rebels that an allied Islamist faction may be responsible for his death. A member of the NTC Abdel-Hafiz Ghoga told Al-Jazeera there had been "shortcomings" in the way some members of the Council had dealt with the matter.

The Associated Press quoted another member of the NTC, Fathi Turbel, as saying it was clear the re-shuffle was needed after the "military, security and media incompetence" following Younes' death.

An NTC spokesman Shamsiddin Abdulmolah told Reuters the re-shuffle was a sign of "the maturing of the revolution, holding people responsible…It's healthy. The NTC is still the highest authority”.

Jibril is now expected to form a new cabinet forthwith. It is thought that he may reappoint some of his ministers.

Younes defected from Colonel Mu'ammar Qadhafi's regime in February after serving the Leader since the 1969 coup, which brought him to power. His body, along with those of his two aides, was discovered on the outskirts of Benghazi on 28th July, after he had been recalled to give evidence on the on-going fight against Qadhafi. The exact circumstances of his death are unclear, and the killers are yet to be apprehended, but senior members of his tribe have demanded a full investigation.

Sources: BBC News, Al-Jazeera, AP, Reuters

For more news and expert analysis about Libya, please see Libya Focus and Libya Politics & Security.