Nigeria: Spin doctors to the rescue

Nigeria is facing pressing problems so the government has taken decisive action: it signed a $1.2 million contract with an American public-relations company to manage the country's image.

 

The news of the contract came on the heels of an emotive and sorrowful op-ed that President Goodluck Jonathan published last week in the Washington Post, in which he attempted to rehabilitate his reputation and counter the impression that he was unconcerned about the fate of the more than 200 schoolgirls kidnapped from their school in Chibok in April.

 

"My silence has been necessary to avoid compromising the details of our investigation," the president wrote, though it was not clear how a refusal to meet with the grieving parents would endanger the recovery mission.

 

The letter, in retrospect, looked like the first salvo fired from the PR arsenal of Levick, the Washington-based lobbying firm contracted to help out the Abuja government. The company is going to try to shape the "media narrative" over the government's recovery effort. It is also tasked with mobilising international support of the fight against Boko Haram.

With the elections fast approaching in February 2015, critics accused Jonathan of running to the Washington spin-doctors to spruce up his image ahead of the still-yet-to-be-declared re-election campaign.

 

For its efforts, Levick will earn $75,000 a month plus (likely to be considerable) expenses for travel and media production, according to The Hill.

 

For more news and expert analysis about Nigeria or East Africa, please see Nigeria Focus and Nigeria Politics & Security.

© 2014 Menas Associates

Algeria: French Prime Minister Jean-Marc Ayrault's visit

French Prime Minister Jean-Marc Ayrault, as reported last week (Algeria Politics & Security 13.12.13), arrived in Algiers on Sunday 15 December for a two-day official visit, the primary object of which was to boost bilateral economic co-operation and development between the two countries. Ayrault was accompanied by some nine ministers and about 40 business leaders.

The two premiers co-chaired the first meeting of the Algerian-French High-Level Intergovernmental Committee, which had been instigated during President François Hollande 's highly successful visit to Algeria exactly one year ago.

In the course of these committee sessions the two sides signed nine bilateral co-operation agreements covering a range of fields, including energy, scientific research, mechanical co-operation, fishing, the pharmaceutical industry, construction and trade.

Ayrault said at a joint news conference with Sellal that bilateral relations allowed the two sides to build bridges of co-operation “for the sake of an ambitious partnership that matches the binds linking our countries and people”. He went on to say that France was keen on re-launching dialogue on many issues of mutual interest.

For his part, Sellal voiced relief for the French investment which is urgently needed. He said, “They [French investors] can be assured about our political will regarding the encouragement of partnership that will benefit the two parties.” Algeria, he said, “is not only a market for France but, above all, a partner.”

For more news and expert analysis about Algeria, please see Algeria Focus and Algeria Politics & Security.

© 2013 Menas Associates

Egypt: Foreign minister says relations with the US now in turmoil

 

Foreign Minister Nabil Fahmy was quoted as telling Al-Ahram that relations with the US are now in turmoil and the entire Middle East could suffer. He was speaking after the US Administration delivered a small rap across Egypt's knuckles for its undemocratic governance by suspending some military aid. However minimal the material effect of the suspension of some arms deliveries will be, there is no doubting that Egypt has felt the slight. Foreign ministers in the Arab world have seldom made foreign policy, which has been the preserve of the president or ruler. However, successive foreign ministers in the post-Hosni Mubarak era have demonstrated that they can be more than mere mouthpieces for their leaders. Fahmy is articulating the new mood in Egypt, one far more critical and hostile to the West, while rather more craven - for now - towards its new backers Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Kuwait.

 

Fahmy told the newspaper that Egypt had been depending for too long on US aid and that Washington should not take Egypt's support for its actions for granted. "We are now in a delicate state reflecting the turmoil in the relationship and anyone who says otherwise is not speaking honestly," he said. He said that the roots of the problems extend far beyond the current spat over aid suspension. "The truth is that the problem goes back much earlier, and is caused by the dependence of Egypt on the US aid for 30 years. (The aid) made us choose the easy option and not diversify our options."

 

There has been a suggestion that Egypt might turn to Russia for arms purchases - but such a move would be more political than strategic. Few expect Egypt to make the kind of break with Washington that it made with Moscow and the-then Soviet Union in 1973. One relic of the old relationship with the Eastern bloc is the Mig 21 fighter, used still to train Egyptian pilots. Their continued use came to light when one crashed near Luxor. For all the bluster, the military is enjoying the support of the US in confronting Islamist militants in the Sinai.

 

For more news and expert analysis about Egypt, please see Egypt Politics & Security.

 

© 2013 Menas Associates

Algerian border controls to reduce petrol smuggling produce results

 

Algeria's black-marketeers and their clients in countries like Morocco and Tunisia had realised that there were considerable profits to be made from smuggling cheap Algerian petrol across rather porous land borders. By 2013, the impact of fuel smuggling was being felt, with Algeria's national consumption rocketing for no apparent reason. It was estimated that around 25% of subsidised Algerian hydro-carbons was being taken out of the country illegally, with the State losing around US$1.3 billion in revenue. In the course of summer 2013, the Algerian authorities reinforced border controls. On 8 September, Algeria's Minister of Energy Youcef Yousfi announced that the campaign was beginning to bear fruit. Fuel consumption was down.

 

In July 2012, consumption increased by 9%; a year later, for the same month, consumption was up by a mere 1.8%, attributable to increased summer traffic on the roads. The Moroccan State also suffered from loss of revenue due to declining fuel sales as well as the safety problem created by large amounts of petrol circulating in plastic barrels and other containers.

 

For more news and expert analysis about Morocco, please see Morocco Politics & Security.

 

© 2013 Menas Associates

Caspian: Oil struck at Zhambyl

Kazakhstan has struck new oil deposits in the Caspian Sea. Recently-appointed Oil Minister Uzakbai Karabalin said on 5 August that workers have located a significant deposit during exploratory work on the Zhambyl structure, being operated by a joint venture between KazMunaiGaz and a Korean consortium led by national player KNOC.

 

Assessment of reserves is ongoing, Karablin said, but “now one can talk about the discovery of a new deposit”, which he called a “joyful development”. The joint venture was established in 2008: Statoil had also been interested but withdrew as part of its Caspian retrenchment plans.

 

The announcement is good news for the Korean consortium as well as for Karabalin, who was appointed last month. Boosting exploration is a priority for the Oil Ministry as well as KMG as part of a plan to dramatically increase the reserves on the national company's balance sheet in the next few years.

 

Karabalin revealed the news at a meeting with President Nursultan Nazarbaev, where he also said that Kazakhstan produced over 40 million tons of crude in the first half of the year.

 

For more news and expert analysis about the Caspian region, please see Caspian Focus.

 

© 2013 Menas Associates

Egypt: Dangers of excluding Islamists

 

The exclusion of Islamists from political life spells very real dangers. They remain a significant force. Islamists won nearly three quarters of the seats in parliament. To drive them underground again, as in the old days of the military regimes, risks storing up trouble ahead. Some are already muttering about the possibilities of armed insurrection -something avoided so far.

There have been voices within the Tamarrud movement, which orchestrated the mass demonstrations against President Morsi, seeking to forge alliances with the youth wing of the Muslim Brotherhood which they feel were betrayed by their leaders.

Another institution that has had its wings clipped since the change of authorities is Al-Jazeera, for many years seen as a mouthpiece of the Muslim Brotherhood. Plain-clothes police raided the TV station's main office in Cairo on Sunday and arrested the bureau chief.

Abdel Fattah Fayed was accused of operating an unlicensed channel and broadcasting reports that had a negative impact on national security.

For more news and expert analysis about Egypt, please see Egypt Politics & Security.

© 2013 Menas Associates

Morocco: Al Adl leader publicly criticises the monarchy from abroad

 

In Algiers, leading a delegation to the conference of Algerian Islamist party Mouvement de la société pour la paix (MSP), Mohamed Abbadi, Abdeslam Yassine's successor at the head of Al Adl wal Ihsane (Justice and Good Works) movement made a strategic move unlikely to win him much popularity with the Moroccan authorities. Interviewed by the conservative Algerian daily Echourouk, he declared that “power in Islam is based on shura (consultation) and not on heredity … We suffer from the monarchy, and, progressively, if God wishes, we will get rid of it and return to what the Qur'an says”. Abbadi has already made remarks with this content and tone to the media. The difference this time is that it was an Algerian newspaper that published them under the title “We suffer from the monarchy … and wish to see it disappear.”

Al Adl refuses to recognise the Moroccan sovereign's right to the title 'Commander of the Believers', and in turn the Moroccan State refuses to recognise Al Adl. Abbadi's line is that only by strict respect of the principles which prevailed in the earliest Islamic community can the lost power of the Muslim nation or Umma be restored. (The restoration of lost Islamic glories is a recurrent theme in Islamist discourse.) Although Abbadi advocates party politics, his movement has shown no readiness to make concessions to the Palace in order to move into political life. In the interview, he declared: “We do not wish to get into a swamp from which we would not be able to get out. Anyone who gets into such a sector, or rather marsh, is obliged to make concessions at the expense of their Islamic principles. We are not prepared to do this” – unlike the ruling Islamo-democrats of the PJD, he might have added. For the record, on Saturday 4 May, Abderrezak Mokri was elected leader of the MSP.

For more news and expert analysis about Morocco, please see Morocco Politics & Security.

© 2013 Menas Associates