Libya: House of Representatives begins it work

The newly elected House of Representatives pressed ahead as planned and held its opening session on 4 August in Tobruk. Around 158 members of the 188 representatives who have been elected to the house so far attended the session with most of them from the liberal and federalist currents.

The Islamists’ efforts to hold the handover of power in Tripoli, rather than in the east, were a complete failure and, predictably, led to the session being boycotted by the Misratans and the Islamists, who insisted that it was unconstitutional. Even their attempts to hold a parallel meeting in the capital proved disastrous and their number was so small that no-one turned up.

Meanwhile, members of the outgoing GNC made an appeal to the Supreme Constitutional Court to rule on whether the sessions in Tobruk are legal because they should have been held in Benghazi. However, no decision will be forthcoming any time soon because the court is on holiday until September.

Despite the fuss they are making, however, the Islamists have been completely outmanoeuvred by their liberal rivals. On top of the fact that such a large number of MPs attended, the first session of the new ruling body was given international recognition through the attendance of representatives of Arab and other foreign governments, as well as from the Arab League, the Organisation of Islamic Conference (OIC) and the Africa Union (AU). Further legitimacy was afforded to the house when representatives from Morocco, Algeria, Tunisia, Libya, Egypt and the US - who held a meeting in Washington this week on the margins of the US-Africa Summit - gave their backing to the House of Representatives.

It, therefore, seems that Libya and the rest of the world is accepting the new house as a fait accompli despite the Islamists and Abu Sahmaine’s objections. This has left the Islamists in an extremely weak position and means that their winning the battle on the ground is more important than ever. As such, Libya might well end up having a political arena dominated by the liberals while the ground itself is in the hands of the Islamists.

For more news and expert analysis about Libya, please see Libya Focus and Libya Politics & Security.

© 2014 Menas Associates

Libya: General Prosecutor for Jebel Akhdar killed in Derna

This week has seen another senior figure from the judiciary targeted and killed in Derna. On 9 November, the General Prosecutor for the Jebel Akhdar region, Mohamed Al-Naas, was killed when a bomb exploded under his car.

 

The killing is reflective of the gaping security vacuum that has opened up in the town. According to one Libyan journalist who travelled to Derna recently, “There is no police, no security directorate, not even a security chamber in Derna. All policemen are sitting at home because of the threat to them by Islamists.” This corroborates the recent assertion by Derna Congressman Abdulfatah Shalwi that the town does not even have a functioning local council or security directorate.

 

The situation is so bad that, according to one Derna resident, the town is “divided between Islamists, gangs, weapons smugglers, drugs mafias and ordinary people”.

 

For more news and expert analysis about Libya, please see Libya Focus and Libya Politics & Security.

 

© 2013 Menas Associates

Egypt: Dangers of excluding Islamists

 

The exclusion of Islamists from political life spells very real dangers. They remain a significant force. Islamists won nearly three quarters of the seats in parliament. To drive them underground again, as in the old days of the military regimes, risks storing up trouble ahead. Some are already muttering about the possibilities of armed insurrection -something avoided so far.

There have been voices within the Tamarrud movement, which orchestrated the mass demonstrations against President Morsi, seeking to forge alliances with the youth wing of the Muslim Brotherhood which they feel were betrayed by their leaders.

Another institution that has had its wings clipped since the change of authorities is Al-Jazeera, for many years seen as a mouthpiece of the Muslim Brotherhood. Plain-clothes police raided the TV station's main office in Cairo on Sunday and arrested the bureau chief.

Abdel Fattah Fayed was accused of operating an unlicensed channel and broadcasting reports that had a negative impact on national security.

For more news and expert analysis about Egypt, please see Egypt Politics & Security.

© 2013 Menas Associates

Egypt: Arrival of Omar Suleiman in presidential race is a double-edged sword

The juggernaut that is the Muslim Brotherhood (MB) appears to have been halted, at least temporarily, in what seemed its unstoppable journey to assume control of the two main centres of political power: the presidency and the parliament. They remain on course to achieve this goal but their previously irresistible progress has met a few obstacles.

Most critical is the suspension of the constituent assembly. The Brotherhood got greedy and tried to dominate the body. The courts have not given the reasons for their decision but the result is that there is a setback to the timetable.

The arrival in the presidential race of Omar Suleiman is a double-edged sword. He is a credible candidate of the old guard. He will appeal to those masses who feel that the economy and security have gone to the dogs. But he is also a useful whipping boy for the others.

One of the challenges for the Islamists is that they have defined themselves more by opposition to the old regime, by saying what they do not believe in, than by clearly articulating what they do stand for.

The two main candidates have something in common. Both operated in the shadows. And for all Khairat al-Shater's criticism of Omar Suleiman, the Brotherhood has a history. Indeed, in the early days of what has become known as the Egyptian revolution, Suleiman asked the opposition political parties to sit with him for a dialogue. All refused - except for the MB. The party is nothing if not pragmatic, but its double talk has eroded popular trust in its credibility.

For more news and expert analysis about Egypt, please see Egypt Politics & Security.

© 2012 Menas Associates