Morocco's latest spat with Algeria

 

Moroccan-Algerian relations appear to be returning to normal following their recent spat over the Western Sahara. A senior government official announced on 4 November that Morocco's ambassador to Algiers, Abdallah Belkaziz, had returned to the Algerian capital and was set to resume work on the same day.

 

He had been recalled to Rabat the previous week following President Bouteflika's provocative speech over Morocco's abuse of human rights in the Western Sahara occupied territories in suppressing the “peaceful struggle” of the Sahrawi people for freedom of expression and association.

The official stressed that the ambassador had only been recalled for consultations and had not been withdrawn, adding that Morocco "will always take measures against those who try to touch its territorial integrity." Referring to an incident last week, in which a Moroccan protester tore down the flag from Algeria's consulate in Casablanca, he said the authorities had been "firm" and the perpetrator was under arrest. But the official denied that Morocco had made an "apology" over the incident.

 

Ugly scenes had developed outside Algeria's consulate in Casablanca on Friday 1 October as Moroccans, egged on by their own government, protested against President Bouteflika's provocative comments over the Western Sahara. A number of other protests against Algeria were staged around the country and most notably in Rabat and Oujda. In what can only be explained as retaliatory action, Algeria arrested dozens of Moroccans living within its borders on alleged espionage and drug-trafficking charges.

 

Who gets the last word in before US Secretary of State John Kerry arrives on the scene (see below) is still up for grabs. So far, it is with King Mohamed VI, who, in his speech on Wednesday 6 November to mark the 38 th anniversary of the occupation of the Western Sahara, accused Algeria of systematic violations of human rights in Tindouf Sahrawi refugee camps.

 

For more news and expert analysis about Algeria, please see Algeria Focus and Algeria Politics & Security.

 

© 2013 Menas Associates

Algerian border controls to reduce petrol smuggling produce results

 

Algeria's black-marketeers and their clients in countries like Morocco and Tunisia had realised that there were considerable profits to be made from smuggling cheap Algerian petrol across rather porous land borders. By 2013, the impact of fuel smuggling was being felt, with Algeria's national consumption rocketing for no apparent reason. It was estimated that around 25% of subsidised Algerian hydro-carbons was being taken out of the country illegally, with the State losing around US$1.3 billion in revenue. In the course of summer 2013, the Algerian authorities reinforced border controls. On 8 September, Algeria's Minister of Energy Youcef Yousfi announced that the campaign was beginning to bear fruit. Fuel consumption was down.

 

In July 2012, consumption increased by 9%; a year later, for the same month, consumption was up by a mere 1.8%, attributable to increased summer traffic on the roads. The Moroccan State also suffered from loss of revenue due to declining fuel sales as well as the safety problem created by large amounts of petrol circulating in plastic barrels and other containers.

 

For more news and expert analysis about Morocco, please see Morocco Politics & Security.

 

© 2013 Menas Associates

Morocco's banks get good ratings from Fitch's

Four of Morocco's leading financial institutions received good marks in August evaluations published by Fitch ratings agency. Two of the largest banks, both of which have the support of their French mother banks, namely the Société Générale du Maroc (SGMA) and the BMCI (BNP-Paribas group) were rated AAA/stable perspectives for the long term, while AttijariWafa Bank (AWB) was rated AA-/stable perspectives. The SGMA's credit subsidiary Eqdom was rated AA/stable perspectives.

AttijariWafa Bank is a major player in the Moroccan banking sector with 28% market share. With no outside shareholder, AWB's rating of AA- reflects a more exposed position than those of SGMA and BMCI. AWB is active across Francophone Africa: 6% of its loans are in Tunisia, a country passing through a period of instability, to say the least, while another 12% of loans are in Sub-Saharan Africa. Fitch's considers that an increased volume of loans in the latter region constitutes a risk.

Although the AWB performs well in the Moroccan market, increased competition and a rise in interest rates could affect performance. Any lowering of Morocco's sovereign rating, currently at BBB-/stable, or a reduction in liquidities could lead to a downgrading of AWB's rating. Given the bank's short-term finance needs, its available liquidities (MAD19.6 billion / US$2.3 billion) are moderate.

For more news and expert analysis about Morocco, please see Morocco Politics & Security.

© 2013 Menas Associates

Morocco: Opposition boycotts PM's monthly question time

 

On 31 May, Prime Minister Abdelilah Benkirane addressed a largely empty Lower House of Parliament during his monthly question-time. The main opposition parties – the RNI, PAM, USFP and the UC – had decided to boycott the session in protest against the way in which it has been managed. In essence, the opposition feels that it has insufficient time to raise issues of importance.

During the May question-time, Benkirane was his usual paternalist self, attempting to soften the blow represented by cutbacks in the investment budget by saying that these were “sad measures, but in the interest of the people”; he added a few words addressing the “the poor of the cities and countryside” saying that “our heart is with you”. However, reforms in the subsidy system, retirement pensions, the tax system and justice will go forward, he stressed.

Benkirane compared managing a country to being in the same situation as a “family head building a house: delaying construction works does not mean stopping them. If things are not done this year, they will be next year”.

For more news and expert analysis about Morocco, please see Morocco Politics & Security.

© 2013 Menas Associates

Morocco: Istiqlal's former minister critical of government economic policy

At a conference in Fès attended by the region's economic élite on 9 February, former Minister of Tourism Adil Douiri (Parti de l'Istiqlal) warned of the dangers of the current government's economic policy. He argued that, unless the economic macro-indicators were corrected, Morocco could find itself slipping back thirty years to come under the supervision of the Bretton Woods institutions.

 

Beyond this rhetoric he did have a number of more concrete points to make regarding a number of major current projects. He argued for close monitoring of the implementation of the Plan Azur (tourist development) and the Plan Emergence (industrial development). The Plan Azur was based on expanding Morocco's seaside tourism with the construction of a series of new resorts. To date only 7% of this plan has been implemented, even though each completed resort could generate up to US$500 million in export income according to Douiri. Unfortunately, resort development has been slow and some projects, including the Oued Fès resort, are at a standstill.

 

In terms of industrial policy Douiri noted that the success of the new Renault factory south of Tangiers (see below) was based on strong State intervention in terms of land and infrastructure provision and tax incentives. He argued that such political will was going to be necessary to get projects like the integrated industrial park (P2I) in Fès off the ground. While Douiri was clearly making political capital out of this meeting, his arguments hold good for other regions of Morocco where ambitious development projects have ground to a halt for one reason or another.

 

For more news and expert analysis about Morocco, please see Morocco Politics & Security.

© 2013 Menas Associates

King inaugurates new developments in eastern Morocco

On Saturday 1 December, Moroccan TV news reported on the royal visit to Nador, eastern Morocco's largest port city. The king visited the special tourist development zone at Mar Chica, the lagoon next to Nador and a new golf academy. The king opens tens of such projects every year – some are extremely significant while others are not. Many such inaugurations would be left to a minor royal or government official in another country. The king and his close entourage are, however, key decision makers so, during such a visit, much is happening backstage, while 'who-is-who' can be seen on TV news by watching who is presented to the king.

During the Nador visit the king looked unwell and walked with the aid of a crutch from his car to the official inauguration tent. Very quickly this appearance was the object of multiple commentaries in social media. The most reasonable explanation is that in the winter the king suffers when a badly treated leg injury of some years ago flares up. Palace sources made absolutely no comment. The last time the Royal Household made an announcement on the king's health was in 2009.

For more news and expert analysis about Morocco, please see Morocco Politics & Security.

© 2012 Menas Associates