There is continuing disintegration of Libya's institutions as
the elections come closer and pressure grows for as many of the electorate as
possible to participate in the ballot.
On paper the spread of support for regional semi-autonomy is a
damaging departure for those who wish for a simple majority to settle the issue
across the country. Most of the support, however, for the federalists remains in
the hands of the people of the east and in one or two other enclaves. Those who
would not contemplate the division of the national territory merely to satisfy
discrete groups and other dissenters will remain strongly in support of a
unitary power base. Fortunately there is just about sufficient backing for a
parliamentary or Islamist solution within the new constitution to give some
strength of belief in the likelihood of a national vote without a federal
component.
The strains produced by the confrontation of political parties
and individuals taking part in the elections will produce a great deal of
tension which could, at time, be violent. Mustafa Abdel Jalil
has the ability to keep the aims of the National Transitional
Council (NTC) strictly on target but, if he fails in this, then flash
points of considerable proportions will exist.
An immediate threat to the NTC is the persistence of the
militia groups who are still heavily armed and assertive. They have the
potential to disrupt events surrounding the election and the regime itself is
powerless to stop them.
For more news and expert analysis about Libya, please see Libya Focus and Libya Politics & Security.
© 2012 Menas Associates
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