Libya is going through change and uncertainty

The country is going through an intensive phase of change and uncertainty. A new National Transitional Council (NTC) cabinet is under construction, which ought to herald a more penetrating period of management of the revolutionary cadres towards creating a new society based on principles of personal freedom.

In fact, the general expectations among ordinary Libyans were not high that any change will be for the better. The continued appointment of a string of former office-holders, who had previously been employed by the Qadhafi family, is causing ill-will and deep dissent among the fighting groups who, to a man, do not wish to see Qadhafi's influence perpetuated.

It is, therefore, unlikely that there will be any great lurch into any type of normal economic development which would facilitate a rapid growth of the economy in the short term. This does not, however, exclude some short-term breaks for the economy as it winds itself up into rapid growth in the energy sector once it is clear that hostilities have ended.

Meanwhile, the shadow of the war will be dispersed by some spending, both by Libyan oil companies and overseas investors in Libyan oil but much of this work will be used for reconstruction.

It is unlikely that there will be enough strong growth to create a demand for a more plentiful labour supply or personal incomes which would alleviate some of the difficulties faced by ordinary workers. The outflow of the foreign workforce will complicate the position in the labour market which, in turn, will make recruitment extremely difficult if serious violence persists.

For more news and expert analysis about Libya, please see Libya Focus and Libya Politics & Security.

© 2011 Menas Associates