Yemen: Saleh will continue to lead the GPC

President Ali Abdullah Saleh has been playing his usual games. One day he says he will leave Yemen for medical treatment. A few days later he says that he will stay, blaming the opposition for some real or imagined slight. The latest move was that he would remain head of the General People's Congress (GPC) and lead the campaign for Abd al-Rab Mansour Hadi 's election. He claims he needs to be in Yemen to help the transition arrangements and wants to get away from the attention on him and allow the national unity government to get on with its work.

There are difficulties over the question of immunity. The GPC will support the deal when it comes to parliament but the Joint Meeting Parties (JMP) prefer a broader “reconciliation law” that would cover acts committed by some of Saleh's opponents. GPC leaders claim that Saleh's opponents were responsible for the attack on the Nahdain mosque on 3rd June and think the law is designed to prevent them from being prosecuted. The investigation into this is continuing but remains a potential time bomb.

Human rights groups point out that the immunity deal only applies in Yemen and that Saleh could face arrest if he travels abroad – and there are many who would attempt to bring action against him. This may have been the reason why the US administration seemed reluctant to allow Saleh to travel to the US for medical treatment, although it may also have wanted stronger assurances from Saleh that he would honour the transition deal. It may also be mindful of the protests that will come from the streets if Saleh not only receives treatment but also remain free while they are demanding his trial. Formally, the US did not respond to the request for a visa.

The Yemeni government will also have to take regard of a statement by Navi Pillay , the UN high commissioner for human rights: “Amnesties are not permissible if they prevent the prosecution of individuals who may be criminally responsible for international crimes, including war crimes, crimes against humanity, genocide and gross violations of human rights. Based on information we have gathered, there is reason to believe that some of these crimes were committed in Yemen during the period for which an amnesty is under consideration. Such an amnesty would be in violation of Yemen's international human rights obligations.”

For more news and expert analysis about Yemen, please see Yemen Focus.

© 2012 Menas Associates

Libya's elite under attack

Political change is once again a bone of contention in the Qadhafi family. Reports from Tripoli suggest there is a move on hand to disgrace rich and influential members of society for their illegal acquisition of wealth at the expense of the state.

It is alleged that the élite have been involved in arranging lucrative deals in a way that is possible only in the unique circumstances of the Qadhafi regime. It is believed that a rough assessment is being made of the funds controlled by a number of both the Old Guard and some of the more recent administrators/technocrats to enable action to follow against those who are suspected of gross involvement in bribery and corruption.

The mood is said to replicate a similar situation in 2000-01, and could be the motivation for a new assault on the cabinet in general and those ministers who are now in charge of corrupt institutions whose personnel have sold out the interests of the nation for individual gain.

The key to the change of atmosphere in Tripoli is the widely published recent criticism of the Libyan pavilion at the Expo 2010 in Shanghai by Saif al-Islam at the end of September. This rapidly escalated into a thoroughgoing attack on the incompetence and ineptitude of the government's management of national affairs.

Opposition sources have suggested that this opening is being manipulated to set the scene for a change in personnel and structures during the next General People's Congress (GPC). It is seen as a means of creating a role for Saif al-Islam within the formal institutions of state as a saviour of the country and as the president in waiting.

There are inevitable hazards associated with an attempt to disgrace the ministers and the cabinet together with some of the Old Guard, as well as longstanding members of the Revolutionary Committees and luminaries who are attached to the Leader's extended entourage. Many of these groups have a strong interest in retaining the status quo because they could lose out badly from change, and even face severe retribution from their enemies if the regime is altered to become a more legally-controlled and ethically-based system such as that which could prevail under Saif al-Islam.

For more news and expert analysis about Libya, please see Libya Focus and Libya Politics & Security.

© 2010 Menas Associates