Elections hold key to elusive Mozambique peace deal

Aside from Mozambique’s upcoming October elections, both the government and the Mozambican National Resistance (Renamo) have announced that they have made significant progresses in peace talks and are close to reaching a deal. Government spokesman, Gabriel Muthisse said both sides have made concessions on the main points of disagreements.

Negotiators have been pursuing common grounds on issues including the integration of Renamo men in the army and the withdrawal of the army's soldiers near Gorongosa. One of four Renamo spokesmen, Saimone Macuiana, who leads the Renamo delegation in talks with the government, had said that they will soon be able to publish the terms of reference for international observers who will oversee disarmament and a ceasefire.

Bishop Dinis Sengulane, one of the mediators of the talks and who was in London last week, has told Mozambique Politics & Security that this should happen on time to allow RENAMO leader, Afonso Dhlakama, to campaign for elections. He has also hinted that some of the outstanding issues may have to wait until after the elections.

Sources say that Dhlakama is expected to return to Maputo to launch his presidential campaign sometime in August. As for a possible meeting between Dhlakama and President Guebuza, the Renamo leader says that the detention of his spokesman Antonio Muchanga has made him reconsider that possibility. According to him, Guebuza has invited him to Maputo to arrest or assassinate him.

For more news and expert analysis about Mozambique, please see Mozambique Politics & Security.

© 2014 Menas Associates

Preparations for parliamentary elections begin in Egypt

President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi issued a decree on Tuesday 15 July creating an electoral commission to oversee the upcoming parliamentary elections. This is in keeping with his statement last month indicating that the procedures for parliamentary elections, the first step of which is the appointment of an electoral commission, would take place before 18 July.

The commission will be formed of the head of the Court of Appeals and the eldest members of the Court of Cassation. Its formation indicates that we should expect to hear an announcement regarding the timing of elections in the next week or two. 

The vote is still expected to be held in mid to late-September, as the government is keen on completing a full transition to an elected government and it is very likely that several draft laws are being held up until a parliament is in place to approve them.

In a development that could have a significant impact on the shape of the next parliament, the Cairo Court of Appeals has overturned a ban placed on members of the now defunct National Democratic Party (NDP), which had been headed by former president Hosni Mubarak, from participating in political life. 

The new ruling means that any former NDP member of parliament may run again in the next election cycle (those convicted of crimes in the last three years will still be banned from running), and it is particularly significant given that the new parliamentary electoral law, which has been heavily criticised by the country’s political parties, heavily favours individual candidate districts.

Former members of parliament will now find it easier to run in the constituencies they had once held, as they will not be required to join a political party (most of whom have shunned former NDP members) to compete in individual districts. 

It should be noted that while previous bans failed to prevent many NDP members from running in the 2011 parliamentary elections, they performed poorly against Muslim Brotherhood candidates, who have been banned from taking part in political life.

For more news and expert analysis about Egypt, please see Egypt Politics & Security.

© 2014 Menas Associates

Upcoming Mauritania presidential elections

Mauritanians go to the polls on 21 June to elect a new President. The incumbent, Mohamed Ould Abdel Aziz, launched his re-election campaign on 6 June in the southern city of Kaedi, telling supporters that since he came to power the country had made ‘great strides’ in security and economic growth.

Abdel Aziz has the strong support of the West, notably the United States, France, and the UK, for his tough stance against terrorism. Also, at face value his economic claims are hard to dispute. Mauritania managed economic growth of 6 per cent last year, with the president claiming credit for the burgeoning mining sector and a drop in inflation to less than 5 per cent.

He has also brought a degree of stability and continuity, thereby reassuring international companies that have invested in the country.

Poverty is still widespread, however, and unless the country strikes oil and/or gas in good quantities fairly soon, its economic future is in the balance. 

The more radical opposition parties have formed themselves into a new alliance called the National Forum for Democracy and Unity (FNDU). They comprise the Islamist Tawassoul movement and the 10 opposition parties forming the Coordination for a Democratic Opposition (COD), which boycotted last November’s election.

The FNDU is boycotting the upcoming election because its members claim that the process lacks credibility and transparency. Other opposition parties, notably the Popular Progressive Alliance (APP), are also boycotting the election for the same reason.

The opposition parties have widely criticised Abdel Aziz for his authoritarian rule. Thousands of FNDU supporters demonstrated throughout Nouakchott on 3 June, protesting at his autocratic approach and at the way the elections have been organised.

His opponents claim, with good reason, that democracy has taken a backseat during his tenure. They accuse the president of using the government and state institutions as his own personal electoral apparatus. This month, six ministers went on vacation, reportedly ordered to do so in order to spend time helping to manage the president’s electoral campaign. Among them were the minister of justice and the government’s official spokesperson. 

Abdel Aziz’s response to the election boycott has been a defiant call for a 100 per cent turnout. The opposition, in turn, has vowed to ramp up its protests.

For more news and expert analysis about the Sahara region, please see Sahara Focus.

  

© 2014 Menas Associates

Libya pushes ahead with plan for parliamentary elections

Somewhat incredibly Libya is still pushing ahead with its plan to hold elections for a new parliament on 25 June. Despite the upheaval and chaos, some Libyans seem to believe that electing a new ruling body at this time will work as a sort of panacea and provide the country with the opportunity for a new start.

Even General Khalifa Haftar, who is battling it out against militants in the east, declared this week that he would halt all fighting for one day on 25 June so that the polls can go ahead.

Yet such optimism may well be misplaced. It is true that electing a new parliament will refresh the political scene. It is also likely to result in the Islamists losing some of their grip on power. This week the campaign poster of a Muslim Brotherhood candidate, Ali Bouzakok, was torn down by angry crowds in Benghazi.

While the Islamists will not disappear from the scene completely, it seems almost certain, given the ongoing hostility towards them, that they will not be able to dominate the parliament in the way they have been able to dominate the Congress.

However, with the country so polarised and with the central authorities still lacking in any real power or authority, it is difficult to see how these elections will really alter the status quo. Furthermore, some of the thornier issues, such as whether or not to elect a new President directly or indirectly, still have to be thrashed out, meaning that the potential for further deadlock is still a reality.

Added to all this the fact that the number of voters who have registered for these elections is still so low; it is difficult to see how this new parliament will have any real legitimacy.

For more news and expert analysis about Libya, please see Libya Focus and Libya Politics & Security.

© 2014 Menas Associates

Algeria: Some electoral statistics

According to government sources the electoral roll, which cannot be  accessed by candidates or electoral monitors for reasons of “data  protection” (see below, fraud), listed 22,880,678 voters of which  21,871,678 are registered in Algeria while 1,009,000 are registered  as living abroad. The authorities mobilised 11,756 polling centres and 49,971 polling stations, including 167 mobile stations. 398 of these polling stations were abroad.

Some 460,000 civil servants were mobilised to officiate at the elections. Polling centres and stations were open from 8 am to 7 pm. Wallis had the discretion to open one hour earlier and extend voting by one hour.

Algerians abroad could vote from last Saturday up until Thursday. Nomads in remote areas (e.g. Tamanrasset, Illizi, Adrar) could vote at 167 mobile stations between Monday and Thursday. Some 59,000 nomads are involved. Bouteflika cast his vote at El Biar in Algiers and was helped into the polling station in a wheel-chair. It was the first time he has appeared in public since his election address at Setif on 8 May 2012 which is almost two years ago. 

For more news and expert analysis about Algeria, please see Algeria Focus and Algeria Politics & Security.

© 2014 Menas Associates

Libya: Preliminary results of Constitution Committee elections

The preliminary results of the elections for the constitution committee, or Sixty Committee, which was established to draw up the country’s new constitution, were released this week. Although most of those elected are not well known, the initial results indicated that the liberal trend did well.

So far, only 47 out of the committee’s members have been declared because voting has yet to take place for the remaining 13 seats. Two of these seats remain empty because they were set aside for the country’s Amazigh (Berber) minority which boycotted the elections on the grounds that the Amazigh were under-represented in the committee and because they were given no guarantee that their rights would be protected in the new constitution. 

The other 11 seats remain unfilled because the elections to these posts could not go ahead on 20 February as a result of various security issues. Despite the fact that the Higher Election Commission announced that voting would take place for these seats six days later, similar disruptions and security violations occurred, meaning the re-runs did not go ahead.

In such circumstances it is difficult to see how this committee can start work. This means that the constitution writing process is likely to be delayed even further, suggesting that Congress’ Plan B for early elections will almost certainly have to be implemented, providing that the Congress itself lasts that long. 

Indeed, the head of the Higher Election Commission, Nouri Al-Abbar, who resigned this week (see below), informed the GNC that “in the best circumstances and even with the availability of logistical support, the earliest time that elections can be held is between 5 to 10 months”. Whether Libyans will agree to wait that long has yet to be seen.

For more news and expert analysis about Libya, please see Libya Focus and Libya Politics & Security.

© 2014 Menas Associates