Egypt: Army Sweep in the Sinai

Military sources said that 13 jihadi militants were killed in an air strike in northern Sinai. They said that the Air Force launched a series of strikes against militants around the city of el-Arish in northern Sinai, targeting houses, shops, vehicles and other gathering points. The army moved in later to targets near Sheikh Zuweyid and picked up four suspects, two of them Palestinians.

The strikes were in response to the downing of a military helicopter by the Ansar Bayt Al-Maqdis (Supporters of Jerusalem) which has said it was behind a spate of attacks on security targets.

Militants have increased their attacks since Morsi was ousted as president in July. The group also said it had carried out the attack last month on the gas export pipeline to Jordan as part of a campaign to "target the regime's economic interests".

The Egyptian authorities have in effect cited the attacks as evidence that the Muslim Brotherhood is a terrorist organisation - without producing evidence that the Brotherhood is behind the attacks. Once again, clashes broke out after Friday prayers between security forces and Brotherhood supporters in Cairo and Alexandria.

A car bomb targeting a bus carrying Egyptian soldiers wounded three civilians near Rafah in the Sinai, security officials said.

A police conscript was killed by unidentified gunmen in Sharqiya in the Nile Delta. Sherif Bayoumi, 30, and another conscript, El-Tablawi Mousa, 31, were shot at by hooded men riding a motorcycle. Bayoumi died soon after being transferred to hospital, while Mousa is in critical condition. Both victims sustained gunshot wounds to the head, reported Al-Ahram's Arabic website.

For more news and expert analysis about Egypt, please see Egypt Politics & Security.

© 2014 Menas Associates

Libya: Son of Benghazi's Special Forces head kidnapped

Ali Ouanis Bukhamada, the son of the head of Special Forces in Benghazi, Ouanis Bukhamada, was kidnapped last week from outside a restaurant behind Benghazi University. Two cars blocked the young man’s way and unknown men forced him inside one of the vehicles and drove him away.

It is not clear exactly who took the young Bukhamada but it is widely believed to be the work of an Islamist militia or group operating in the country’s second city. The Special Forces chief declared, “This is an attempt to blackmail me or to pressurise me so as to hinder us from imposing security and stability.”

According to some rumours, Ali Ouanis Bukhamada’s kidnappers demanded that Special Forces pull out of the Islamist-dominated Qawarsha neighbourhood in return for the young man’s release. Bukhamada denied these rumours and asserted, “I don’t have any forces in Qawarsha. I don’t know what they want. Let them tell us and I am quite open to them.” Other reports circulating on the internet and on social networking sites have claimed that the young man has already been killed by his abductors.

Ali Ouanis’s abduction was followed by a number of clashes between Special Forces and militant groups. One such clash occurred at a farm in Qawarsha, located on the western outskirts of Benghazi, where armed gunmen had holed themselves up and had opened fire on a helicopter engaged in a combing operation. Special Forces troops moved in on the farm, putting the area under siege and closing all the main roads that lead to it. The ensuing clashes left one soldier dead and four others injured.

In a show of support, Justice Minister Salah Al-Marghani flew to Benghazi after Ali Ouanis’s kidnap to meet his father. There is, however, little hope that the young man’s captors will be brought to justice. Going by what has happened to other kidnap victims in the city, there is limited hope too that Bukhamada will be found alive.

For more news and expert analysis about Libya, please see Libya Focus and Libya Politics & Security. 

© 2014 Menas Associates

Nigeria's international profile on the rise

Nigeria's international profile could increase as Africa's most populous country approaches GDP rebasing and is deemed one of the key emerging economies.

During the holiday period developments on Nigeria's economy have been somewhat muted, certainly compared to the contentious period culminating in the setting of the reference oil price for the budget and the actual 2014 Budget presentation by finance minister Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala (and pointedly not the under-fire President Jonathan) in December. Besides the nitty-gritty of Nigeria's spending plans recent international events may emphasize its growing importance in Africa. These include the chaos in South Sudan which has not only impacted global oil prices, but place Nigeria's oil-related environmental, theft and piracy troubles in perspective. Indeed, market observers are becoming increasingly worried about the Africa-portion of global oil supply.

 

Nigeria - regardless of the palaver over the Obasanjo and Sanusi letters to Jonathan - is set to become Africa's officially largest economy by GDP when rebasing exercise concludes this year. It has also been included as one of the “MINTs”, or emerging economies set to become major global players in the wake of the BRICs – the other MINTs being Mexico, Indonesia and Turkey. Goldman Sachs' influential Jim O'Neill – who recently designated the MINTs amongst in a widely-publicised interview - maintains his optimism on Nigeria despite its chaotic nature, partly due to its demographics, resources and entrepreneurial spirit.

 

Nigeria, whose stock market was one of the world's best performing during 2013, can surely benefit from any change in perceptions and especially given its current reputation as a country where some multinationals have been reluctant to send key individuals (in less secure regions), and reputation for corruption.

 

For more news and expert analysis about Nigeria, please see Nigeria Focus and Nigeria Politics & Security.

 

© 2014 Menas Associates

Algeria: French Prime Minister Jean-Marc Ayrault's visit

French Prime Minister Jean-Marc Ayrault, as reported last week (Algeria Politics & Security 13.12.13), arrived in Algiers on Sunday 15 December for a two-day official visit, the primary object of which was to boost bilateral economic co-operation and development between the two countries. Ayrault was accompanied by some nine ministers and about 40 business leaders.

The two premiers co-chaired the first meeting of the Algerian-French High-Level Intergovernmental Committee, which had been instigated during President François Hollande 's highly successful visit to Algeria exactly one year ago.

In the course of these committee sessions the two sides signed nine bilateral co-operation agreements covering a range of fields, including energy, scientific research, mechanical co-operation, fishing, the pharmaceutical industry, construction and trade.

Ayrault said at a joint news conference with Sellal that bilateral relations allowed the two sides to build bridges of co-operation “for the sake of an ambitious partnership that matches the binds linking our countries and people”. He went on to say that France was keen on re-launching dialogue on many issues of mutual interest.

For his part, Sellal voiced relief for the French investment which is urgently needed. He said, “They [French investors] can be assured about our political will regarding the encouragement of partnership that will benefit the two parties.” Algeria, he said, “is not only a market for France but, above all, a partner.”

For more news and expert analysis about Algeria, please see Algeria Focus and Algeria Politics & Security.

© 2013 Menas Associates

Cameroon: New Boko Haram attacks

 

New Boko Haram attacks and the ongoing CAR crisis keep the government worried about mounting insecurity.

 

Interior Minister Rene Emmanuel Sadi summoned Cameroon's ten governors for a three-day conclave on security and safety that started on Tuesday 17 December amid growing insecurity in and around the country. It is the second conclave this year and comes on the heels of deadly attacks and kidnappings in eastern and northern Cameroon by rebels from war-torn CAR and Boko Haram insurgents from Nigeria.

 

After having kidnapped a French Catholic priest in November, three Boko Haram militants attacked and killed a man in the northern town of Kousserie on Saturday 14 December.

 

The incident comes after Defence Minister Edgar Alain Mebe Ngo'o took delivery of imported heavy munitions at Douala port on Saturday 7 December. He received more than 100 heavy mechanised machine guns in Douala after having acquired two combat helicopters in November, as if to show the government's readiness to counter any internal and/or foreign attack.

 

Cameroon has continued to strengthen its military personnel and arsenal since the beginning of 2013, and has made it publicly visible. This was especially after the Paris-based Jeune Afrique magazine reported earlier this year that the country's military was weakened by obsolete equipment and was contaminated by tribal fratricides within its various compartments.

 

The interior minister said that “Cameroon is being propelled by the head of state Paul Biya through a difficult battle to emergence. But without national order; without peace and serenity, these [economic] projects cannot be realised. This is the key context of this meeting.” He added that, apart from routine investigations by special security units, it was imperative for all the governors to pre-empt attacks and avoid being taken by surprise.

 

On the other hand, Minister of Trade Luc Magloire Mbarga Atangana told the meeting that food and other basic commodities were in sufficient supply, because that could also trigger internal social strife which might spill over to give insurgents the opportunity to invade the country.

 

For more news and expert analysis about Cameroon, please see Cameroon Politics & Security.

 

© 2013 Menas Associates

Ghana: Fitch Ratings optimistic on Sub-Saharan Africa's growth

 

Fitch Ratings remains optimistic on Sub-Saharan Africa's growth, despite the risks that may occur from any tapering of quantitative easing by the US Federal Reserve.

 

Although the international ratings agencies have been pessimistic about Ghana – because of debt and deficit concerns – which have led to downgrades and/or Ghana's debt being placed on negative outlook, the most recent Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) release from the Fitch ratings agency, which downgraded Ghana's debt rating in October, is generally positive.

 

Among other things, Fitch expects overall SSA's GDP growth to increase during 2014 to around 5.1% for the year. Fitch, rather than touting the usual commodities story, notes the progress on Africa's public infrastructure and infrastructure spending and successful use of dollar Eurobond financing. On the downside, Fitch sees the tapering by the US Federal Reserve of its “quantitative easing” programme as presenting the biggest risk to Africa's economies.

 

On the ratings front, Fitch maintains a “stable” overall rating outlook for 2014, with more SSA countries (compared to one year ago) having (i) a positive ratings outlook and (ii) a stable ratings outlook, and fewer having (iii) a negative ratings outlook.

 

Ghana, according to Fitch, was one of the three out of 16 SSA countries that was downgraded; the others being South Africa and Zambia while only one country was upgraded. Unfortunately, Fitch highlights Ghana as the 2013-downgraded country in which fiscal deterioration is “most evident” because of its “double digit twin deficits”, increasing debts, and unlikely-to-be-attained “fiscal consolidation” targets. Ghana, according to some, not only faces high deficits and debt but is also rapidly becoming a worst-in-class performer on key economic metrics; a sobering thought for the new year.

 

For more news and expert analysis about Ghana, please see Ghana Politics & Security.

© 2013 Menas Associates

Saudi Arabia expels Yemeni workers

Saudi Arabia has been pushing through its campaign to reduce the number of illegal workers in the kingdom. Perhaps 150,000 Yemenis have been expelled or may be soon – with possibly a further 50,000 still to be processed. Riyadh has ignored complaints from Yemen – and the many other countries affected – and indeed the likely consequences for its own security in adding to the misery in Yemen by cutting off vital remittances. The problem for Yemen is that the measure is not aimed against Yemenis but a whole category of people of which Yemenis are the most numerous.

 

Exceptions are not being made.

 

Relations between the two countries have not been helped by the case of a Saudi woman who eloped to Yemen with a Yemeni man. This has become a cause celebre and the woman, after facing the possibility of imprisonment and deportation, has been granted political asylum.

 

The UN Children's Fund and Human Rights Watch got involved. The Saudis are not amused.They may not object to the outcome – it is the publicity they detest. There was shooting on the Yemeni-Saudi border involving those working on building the new security fence.

 

For more news and expert analysis about Yemen, please see Yemen Focus.

© 2013 Menas Associates