Libya: ICC demands the handover of Saif al-Islam Qadhafi

The International Criminal Court (ICC) has rebuffed Libya's request to potstone the handover of Colonel Mu'ammar Qadhafi's son Saif al-Islam Qadhafi. The deceased leader's son is being held captive in a secret location by a militia from the town of Zintan.

The ICC has ruled that Libya must prepare to hand over Saif al-Islam to the war crimes court at The Hague forthwith. He is wanted in relation to violent suppression of demonstrations during the Libyan unrest. Libya's National Transitional Council (NTC), however, has said it wants to try Saif al-Islam on Libyan soil.

In a bid to delay the handover to The Hague, Libya has questioned the admissibility of the case but, according to the ICC, failed to provide the necessary evidence. The court issued an arrest warrant for Saif al-Islam – as well as his father and the former intelligence chief Abdullah al-Senussi – in June 2011.

Last month, Senussi was arrested in Mauritania, and Tripoli is also adamant that it wants to try him in Libya. But according to the ICC the UN Security Council resolution obliges Libya to co-operate with The Hague and hand over the men.

Sources: AP, Retuers, BBC News

For more news and expert analysis about Libya, please see Libya Focus and Libya Politics & Security.

Militias remain outside central government control

The domestic situation is still far from secure. The Amnesty International reports on torture in Misrata prisons earlier this year hardened by mid-February into scarcely concealed charges of serious breaches of human rights. According to Amnesty, at least 12 individuals were tortured to death in prison in the last quarter of 2011, and no conclusive action to alter the situation was reported other than a name change for the guards running the makeshift prisons.

The militia who were involved in the management of the Misrata prison have continued to perpetrate abuse of inmates in direct contravention of National Transitional Council (NTC) orders and in flagrant violation of the human rights laws.

Since that time, the militias have become an increasing menace to the rule of law. In addition to keeping Saif al-Islam Qadhafi in confined quarters in Zintan, they are daily blocking the routes outside Tripoli and Benghazi, and are reportedly imposing illegal charges for safe passage. These unpopular militia activities impact on the lives of the urban population.

It would seem that the principal militias have now formalised an organisation which links about 300 groups, with a combined total of over 200,000 members. It is claimed by journalists recently in the region that the militias' objective is simply to oppose the NTC on key issues, undermining its status and ridiculing its efforts to implement constitutional change.

In practice the militias are frequently concerned with establishing authority on their home patch although those from Misrata and Zintan are often in conflict for more complex reasons. So far, the government has been completely unequal to the task of disarming this irregular and illegal military force. In their latest incarnation the militias have been acting as paramilitary units with little or no regard for the wishes of the central government.

For more news and expert analysis about Libya, please see Libya Focus and Libya Politics & Security.

© 2012 Menas Associates

Qadhafi's death: such a waste

The death of Colonel Mu'aamar Qadhafi on the morning of Thursday 20th October - dragged from a culvert drain outside Sirte and seemingly swiftly executed, after NATO apparently attacked the convoy in which he was presumably trying to escape the city - was a sad moment for Algeria's regime. All its time and investment has been for nothing.

All three of its strategies have, one by one, failed. For the first couple of weeks of Libya's rebellion the Algerian regime tried to persuade the West that Saif al-Islam Qadhafi was the solution. But Saif soon revealed his true colours.

It then tried to convince the West that the only solution for Libya was a sort of partition between East and West. But that too, following the regime's failure to capture Misrata and then the eventual fall of Tripoli, came to naught.

It was then left with its final strategy, one in which it is most adept: to create as much trouble and chaos as possible. Where does Algeria's regime go from here – at least as far as its Libyan neighbour is concerned?

The regime knows that it is on the list of the 'Arab Spring'. It also knows that it has now made a strong enemy of both the Libyan people and, most likely, the new Libyan state that will soon come into being. Neither are its friends in the West happy with how it has handled things since the unrest of January gave a foretaste of what might befall the country if it was not prepared to undertake significant and meaningful reforms.

Since then there has been a constant trail of senior Western and Qatari emissaries to Algeria, along with summonses to Washington, first encouraging and more latterly warning the regime that serious reform is necessary if it is to survive. The last of these was the visit this week by William Hague which appropriately came just two days before Qadhafi was killed.

Hague delivered a strong message to the Algerian regime regarding its harbouring of Qadhafi's family. In the wake of repeated calls from the National Transitional Council (NTC) that Algiers should extradite those members of the Qadhafi family that it has been sheltering, Hague told reporters at a press conference, shared with his counterpart Mourad Medelci, that Algeria should cooperate with the new regime in Libya over members of the Qadhafi family who took refuge there. Algeria gave refuge to Qadhafi's sons Mohamed and Hannibal, his (second) wife Safiya and his daughter Aisha, and various grandchildren. Their breach of the UN travel ban was justified by Algeria in that Aisha was pregnant and gave birth to a baby girl on arrival in the country. The veracity of this story is doubted as Aisha claimed that her four-month old baby was killed in a NATO bombing raid in April, meaning that she has now given birth twice in eight months.

Following Hague's very clear message to the Algerians, Libya's NTC reiterated its call for the extradition of Qadhafi's family from Algeria. The call was made by the head of the NTC's executive committee, Mahmoud Jibril, during the televised news conference in Tripoli on Thursday (20th) afternoon at which he confirmed that Qadhafi had been killed earlier that day.

Algeria has so far turned down each call to return the Qadhafi family members, Should it do so again, in the wake of Hague's warning, there may be severe consequences. There have been signs for some time that the West is losing patience with the Algerian regime over its failure to engage in much-needed political reform, and rumours have been circulating for some weeks that the regime is in the proverbial Last Chance Saloon as far as its Western backers are concerned. Should Algeria defy the British Foreign Secretary, it might just be the last straw that tips those backers into pulling the proverbial plug.

For more news and expert analysis about Algeria, please see Algeria Focus and Algeria Politics & Security.

For more news and expert analysis about Libya, please see Libya Focus and Libya Politics & Security.

© 2011 Menas Associates

Libya says Qadhafi must remain in power

The Libyan government has conceded to political reform, but made it clear that Colonel Mu'ammar Qadhafi must remain in power. A government spokesman, Moussa Ibrahim, said Qadhafi was a "unifying figure" figure in Libya, and defended his forces, saying they only targeted armed rebels not civilians.

Speaking to State TV, Qadhafi's son Saif Al-Islam Qadhafi said Libya's Foreign Minister Musa Kusa had not defected from the regime by fleeing to the UK. Saif alleged that Kusa had travelled to Britain for health reasons, and was being coerced into making allegations against Libya. He also denied allegations that Kusa knew incriminating details about the Lockerbie bombing, saying there no more “secrets”.

The situation in Libya has reached a stalemate, with the rebel fighters in a continuous tussle over the eastern oil hub of Brega. Nearly two months since the revolt against Qadhafi began, the country remains effectively split between the rebel forces in the east and government loyalists in Tripoli and the west.

Speaking about the situation in Libya, Ibrahim said Qadhafi was "a safety valve for the country to remain together" adding, "many Libyans, many Libyans want him to lead the process forward because they are scared if he is not there for any reason we will have what happened in Iraq, we will have what happened in Somalia, we will have what happened in Afghanistan."

The spokesman also announced that the country was open to political reform such "elections, referenda" but noted that "the leader has to lead this forward".

Sources: BBC News, Aljazeera, The Daily Telegraph, Xinhua

For more news and expert analysis about Libya, please see Libya Focus and Libya Politics & Security.

Libya: Security of foreign personnel and assets

The continuation of hostilities between the remnants of the army with mercenaries fighting for Colonel Mu'ammar Qadhafi and the lightly armed groups of the revolutionaries could persist despite Saif Al-Islam Qadhafi's wish for a quick conclusion.

Foreign companies therefore need to assess whether they can sustain a presence in Libya that is both profitable while still undertaken with minimum risk to life and assets. The route of the campaign has been marked by heavy fighting and considerable damage to property. If the opposition finds the strength to survive the initial onslaught by the regime's heavy armour then it would clearly be inadvisable for foreign workers to return to what is a very unstable and uncertain situation.

There are, however, some areas of Libya which will have been largely unaffected by the fighting and could, providing the support and infrastructure are brought back into action in the near future, possibly survive the damage done by war.

What occurred in late February in Libya was not a revolution by way of a complete overthrow of existing institutions and deep changes in society but a calculated attempt to rid the country of the Leader. In Islamic law there are a number of ways in which the community can rid itself of an unpopular ruler including by invoking the judgement of “oppression”. In many ways the Qadhafi rule had become a source of unacceptable oppression for the population. Certainly the unpopularity, indeed, hatred of Qadhafi, has been shown to be deeply entrenched.

The likelihood of Qadhafi surviving the revolt against him is currently in his favour and therefore companies - which have to take a view of temporal change in Libya and forecast what an anti-Western leader like Qadhafi might do in fits of revenge from time to time in the wake of his rejection by the bigger nations - must make their own decisions.

For more news and expert analysis about Libya, please see Libya Focus and Libya Politics & Security.

© 2011 Menas Associates

Libyan-Swiss relations continue to deteriorate

The poor relations with Switzerland, which have deteriorated sharply since summer 2008, continue to have ramifications for Libya. A report, released at the end of December 2010 by a Washington-based, not-for-profit think tank Institute for Science and International Security – led by former IAEA nuclear inspector David Albright - claimed that the CIA deliberately mishandled the prosecution of three Swiss nationals who were accused of assisting the Libyan nuclear weapons programme.

At the same time, a Swiss parliamentary fact-finding delegation examining the crisis with Libya has decided that there will be no lawsuit against the Swiss citizens who were responsible for leaking to the Geneva press the photos of Hannibal Qadhafi after he had been arrested by Swiss police. It is hoped that this means that the whole drama of the Libyan–Swiss confrontation will be over.

The release of information in Switzerland suggesting that a military solution for the rescue of the two Swiss hostages held under house arrest in Tripoli also remains a major point of dissatisfaction for the Libyan government. This leak in the Swiss political system will, however, apparently not become a legal case.

On the other hand, the case of the Swiss nuclear engineer, Friedrich Tinner (b.1937) and his two sons, who have been indicted for contravening Swiss laws on the export of nuclear raw materials to Libya and other countries, will be decided in court.

Switzerland is seen to have connived in the exclusion of Saif al-Islam Qadhafi from the World Economic Forum in Davos later this month. Saif al-Islam has made great efforts to obtain an invitation to the Forum but it is said in diplomatic circles that no high-profile Libyans will be invited to visit Switzerland until relations are much improved.

For more news and expert analysis about Libya, please see Libya Focus and Libya Politics & Security.

© 2010 Menas Associates

Saif al-Islam withdrawal from political life

The difficulties faced by Saif al-Islam Qadhafi in the battle to be the principal nominee to succeed the Leader remain acute. His political position is made complex because he has been selected by his father but not in any definite and continuing way. Saif al-Islam is also currently making all signs of cutting his connections with the existing groups and individuals who form the radical part of Colonel Qadhafi's entourage.

Saif al-Islam's withdrawal from political life, for the second time, is signalled by his decision to de-politicise the management of the Qadhafi family trusts and to continue charitable operations only in sub-Saharan Africa and thereby no longer fulfilling an international role of importance.

His loss of control over newspapers and websites through which he formerly elaborated his political connections has rendered him toothless. His opponents have been adept in manipulating the existing political system against him and, in a clean sweep of his media enterprises, have divested him of his principal access to political influence outside the regime.

For more news and expert analysis about Libya, please see Libya Focus and Libya Politics & Security.

© 2010 Menas Associates

Saif al-Islam's media agency censured for criticising the regime

In recent weeks, two incidents have occurred that have once again brought Saif al-Islam's hypothetical claim to succeed his father back to the forefront of public consciousness. Following his recent comments criticising the Libyan government for a lack of cohesion and organisation, his al-Ghad media agency has been censured by the authorities, reportedly for criticism of the regime.

The al-Ghad stable includes:

> a weekly publication called Quryna;

> Oea, once a daily but now a weekly newspaper;

> a radio station;

> Libya Press Agency news agency, and

> A television channel which was closed down in June 2010.

Printed by al-Ghad on a weekly basis, Oea has been suspended, reportedly after the publication of a negative editorial. It called for a further push in attempting to redefine government in Libya, criticising ongoing levels of corruption and once again demanding more reform. This time, the call is for the return of revolutionary figures to oversee investigations into corruption.

This is not, however, the first time that Saif al-Islam's capital assets in the media industry have been sequestrated, doubtless as a result of the growing audacity of the security apparatus in confrontation with Saif al-Islam's reforming allies.

Oea is, however, still available online, where there was notification of the suspension, despite an early lack of an official statement. Oea and another al-Ghad title were suspended for six months earlier this year between January and July.

Freedom of the press is clearly non-existent, despite the presence of privately-owned publications. Oea may have published calls for reform but the repercussions demonstrate that the Leader is not ready for open discussion on how the structure of the Jamahiriya might change, both in the immediate future and when he is unable to guide the country.

For more news and expert analysis about Libya, please see Libya Focus and Libya Politics & Security.

© 2010 Menas Associates

Saif Al-Islam Qadhafi accuses Libyan government of ineptitude

Saif Al-Islam Qadhafi has accused the Libyan government of ineptitude, highlighting ruptures within the country's ruling elite. Saif al-Islam is leader of a reformist group in Libya which is struggling to influence the old guard including higher-ranking figures within his father's own entourage.

Saif Al-Islam criticised the government after his visit to the Libyan pergola at the Word Expo in Shanghai. Saif Al-Islam oversaw the Libya's display himself, saying the government failed to take sufficient interest.

"The Libyan government did not even bother to send a junior employee to attend Libya's day at the exhibition. That shows that there is no state in Libya. It is me who arranged support for Libya's participation in the Shanghai exhibition because the Libyan state failed to give enough backing for the country's participation. Libya's participation in the Shanghai International Exhibition is the weakest and the worst participation," he said.

Saif al-Islam plays a crucial role in Libyan politics, and although he holds no official position, he was instrumental in negotiating the end of international sanctions on Libya after the country repudiated the banned weapons programmes, and since then he has been lobbying for the modernisation of Libya.

Source: Reuters

For more news and expert analysis about Libya, please see Libya Focus and Libya Politics & Security.

Libya: Political Old Guard reduced to attrition

The strength of the political Old Guard is being reduced by attrition as age takes its toll and its members cease to be corner stones of the Qadhafi regime. The latest blow in this section is Khalifah Hanaish who for many years was an important apologist for Colonel Qadhafi and manipulator of tribal politics. He is reported to be seriously ill in Austria.

He rose from the ranks to become a general in the Libyan army in charge of aspects of security and armaments, on which issues he reported directly to the Leader. His loyalty was total and until two years ago, he was an important player in the circle around the Leader.

This process of attrition is gradually reducing the number of experienced and dependable senior personnel available to the Leader in his management of the country. As new individuals take over the reins of influence, so the regime will be less confident of its base.

In an interesting lecture to the Lawyers Union in Tripoli, a speaker made the point that the Revolutionary Committee movement and indeed, the revolutionary committees themselves are illegal under the present law since no parties are allowed to exist. He pointed out that the evolution of the movement has meant that the majority of ministers in the cabinet have always been from the ranks of the revolutionary committees.

It will be recalled that in recent years only two ministers have not had close connection with the revolutionary committees – Mustafa Abdel Jallil who was Minister of Justice and was nominated by Saif al-Islam Qadhafi and the head of NOC, Dr Shukri Ghanem whose alliance with Saif al-Islam was among the reasons for his accession to the cabinet. The narrowness of the cabinet's origins tells of the poverty in organised political activity and indicates that a popular dissident leader would face limited opposition in the country.

For more news and expert analysis about Libya, please see Libya Focus and Libya Politics & Security.

© 2010 Menas Associates

Saif al-Islam's planning Iftar celebration to recognise anniversary of al-Meghrahi's release

With the first anniversary of the release of the former Lockerbie prisoner, Abdel Basset al-Meghrahi, there would appear to be no end in sight of Western fascination with the story. Not only are UK/Scottish and US officials still debating the issue of BP's reputed involvement in the convicted bomber's release on compassionate grounds but the international media are also focused on his continued survival despite the prognosis made this time last year.

In a move clearly designed to reap domestic support rather than impress an international audience, it is rumoured that Saif al-Islam Qadhafi is planning an Iftar celebration, during this holy month of Ramadan, to recognise the anniversary of al-Meghrahi's release and his continued survival. Saif al-Islam is largely credited with negotiating the release of the Libyan convicted of bringing down Pan Am flight 103 over Lockerbie in 1988.

The matter refuses to leave the public arena, and members of the US Senate and Congress - particularly those from New York and New Jersey, and others who are close to the families of the American Lockerbie victims - appear to be fixated on investigating its various aspects.

So far, it would seem that little concrete damage has been done to bilateral relations between the US and Libya. However, it is unlikely that this will still be the case if the matter is not dropped from public scrutiny in the near future.

For more news and expert analysis about Libya, please see Libya Focus and Libya Politics & Security.

© 2010 Menas Associates