Saif al-Islam withdrawal from political life

The difficulties faced by Saif al-Islam Qadhafi in the battle to be the principal nominee to succeed the Leader remain acute. His political position is made complex because he has been selected by his father but not in any definite and continuing way. Saif al-Islam is also currently making all signs of cutting his connections with the existing groups and individuals who form the radical part of Colonel Qadhafi's entourage.

Saif al-Islam's withdrawal from political life, for the second time, is signalled by his decision to de-politicise the management of the Qadhafi family trusts and to continue charitable operations only in sub-Saharan Africa and thereby no longer fulfilling an international role of importance.

His loss of control over newspapers and websites through which he formerly elaborated his political connections has rendered him toothless. His opponents have been adept in manipulating the existing political system against him and, in a clean sweep of his media enterprises, have divested him of his principal access to political influence outside the regime.

For more news and expert analysis about Libya, please see Libya Focus and Libya Politics & Security.

© 2010 Menas Associates

Libya: Foreign companies advised to monitor levels of political payments

The vexed question of employment for Libyans taking priority over imported personnel goes on. The Ministry of Labour has announced that foreign oil companies alone have generated 4,900 jobs for Libyans in the last 12 months, most of them at graduate level. At the present time, it is claimed that a further 1,000 individuals are under training abroad. The government remains wedded to the prescription of Libyans first in line for employment, and migrants being tolerated only when they bring skills that are in short supply.

There is some variation across sectors in the application of the rules, with the oil business by far the most attractive to young graduates. The value of labour of this kind in the white-collar occupations to the foreign oil companies is not clear, though the transfer of experience to these new echelons is seen as an essential part of social responsibility of the multi-nationals and is contributing usefully to the development of employment.

The apparent profligacy of the government in utilising foreign exchange for non-economic ends is continuing, with awards for small development projects ranging from school construction in Mali to an aid project in Dafur catering for expenditure of US$8 million. For the immediate future, Libya appears to have access to abundant foreign exchange resources with which to fund these ad-hoc grants, which should not adversely affect the main spending programmes of the annual budget and the development of the economy.

It seems unlikely, however, that sums of this kind can be dispensed on so wide a scale in the future. The implication of this is for a gradual decline in the aid given by Libya, and in expenses of a political kind to support the Leader's international ambitions.

Foreign companies would be wise to keep a running tally of Libyan foreign exchange income and expenditure lest the current downturn in oil revenues becomes an obstacle to payments to overseas contractors.

For more news and expert analysis about Libya, please see Libya Focus and Libya Politics & Security.

© 2010 Menas Associates