Algeria: Top-down reform

President Abdelaziz Bouteflika announced on Monday 2nd May that he would be appointing a committee, under the chairmanship of Abdelkader Bensalah, speaker of the Nation Council (Senate), to conduct consultations with political parties and national figures and to draft constitutional amendments.

In a speech to the Council of Ministers, Bouteflika said: "Concerning the draft revision of the constitution, I'm due to assign a competent committee to be in charge of this mission, while political parties and personalities can submit their propositions and contributions on the matter to this committee."

According to Bouteflika's modus operandi for the committee, it will present him with a draft constitutional revision, with the final version being submitted to parliament. “In case the draft carries [major] amendments, it will be referred to [a] popular referendum …, in addition to being submitted to parliament," he said.

This was the clearest assertion yet, that whatever amendments to the constitution were to be made, they would be 'top down' . The fact that Bouteflika himself is appointing the committee flies in the face of the widespread national demand that there be a popularly elected Council of State to decide such issues.

For more news and expert analysis about Algeria, please see Algeria Focus and Algeria Politics & Security.

© 2011 Menas Associates

Yemen: US position shifts

Yemen's regional and international friends are deeply frustrated by the inability of Yemen's politicians to agree on a way forward and presumably by their own powerlessness to influence events.

Many experts had predicted that President Ali Abdullah Saleh would fall when the US and Saudi governments ceased to support him. That support was withdrawn in late March, though nothing was said in public and the US appears to have concluded that the fight against Al-Qa'eda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP), which is Washington 's main priority in Yemen, could not be pursued with a president whose position had become untenable. A US spokesperson had condemned the violence of recent weeks as “appalling” and another had spoken of an urgently needed agreement on a transition – Saleh leaving power, in other words. The US froze its new aid programme to Yemen, due to start in February.

The US and its allies fully understand the problems that any new regime will encounter but now see this as a lesser evil than Saleh staying on, even though there must be deep concerns about how the counter-terrorist forces led by Saleh's close relatives can remain intact. The US has been careful – in public – not to be seen to be interfering too overtly and wants to leave the details to the Yemeni people. As one US official put it, President Saleh has expressed “his willingness to engage in a peaceful transition, but we don't have any specifics, we don't have any timelines”.

The EU governments have been speaking more plainly, demanding that Saleh agree to a transitional arrangement. French foreign minister Alain Juppé went further, saying that the “resignation of the Yemeni president has become inevitable”. Turkey, a regional power with growing influence on the peninsula, said that it expected “Yemen's administration to show respect for the fundamental rights and freedoms of the demonstrators who have been expressing their expectations and demands through peaceful means. We wish Yemen's future to be determined within the scope of a comprehensive national dialogue process that would be carried out with the participation of all segments of the society.”

The UN Security Council discussed the situation in Yemen on 19 April and eventually issued a neutral statement, apparently because of the unwillingness of China and Russia to use stronger language. This is consistent with their stance on the Arab Spring, where they have wanted to let each state decide for itself on its future, without outside interference.

For more news and expert analysis about Yemen, please see Yemen Focus.

© 2011 Menas Associates

Egypt: Former interior minister Habib Al-Adly sentenced to 12 years in prison

Egypt's former interior minister Habib Al-Adly was sentenced to 12 years in jail on charges of money-laundering and profiteering on Thursday 5th May.

Al-Adly is the first senior official from the regime of ousted president Hosni Mubarak to be tried. He pleaded not guilty to charges of money-laundering and illicitly enriching himself while in office, but was convicted of both.

Al-Adly ran Mubarak's security services for more than a decade and was despised for abuses committed by his security agents, according to AFP. Under his rule, torture was routine and police officers were seldom tried for abuses of power.

Mubarak was forced to resign from power in February after 18 days of demonstrations. Al-Adly's police forces were a particular target for demonstrators during the first days of the protests, a sign of how they were perceived by the populace.

The charges that Al-Adly were convicted of related to the sale of land, which he owned, but tasked the police with finding a buyer for. He was given seven years for profiteering and five years for money-laundering. He was also fined 15 million Egyptian pounds (US$2 million).

He also faces a second trial on charges of ordering police to shoot protestors, and a third over a deal with a German firm to supply Egypt with licence plates at inflated prices.

Former president Mubarak is also under investigation for corruption and for involvement in the killing of anti-regime protestors. Both al-Adly and Mubarak could face the death penalty if convicted of the latter charge.

An official inquiry into deaths during the revolt of January and February found that at least 846 civilians were killed. Most of them were shot in the head and chest, indicating the use of snipers.

Much of the former regime's leadership are now behind bars, most of them on suspicion or charges of corruption. Mubarak's two sons Gamal and Alaa are currently in prison, while Mubarak is being detained in a hospital in Sharm el-Sheikh, after allegedly suffering a heart attack.

Sources: AFP, BBC News

For more news and expert analysis about Egypt, please see Egypt Politics & Security.

Egypt: The Muslim Brotherhood has formed a new political party

Egypt's largest religiously-inspired political organisation, the Muslim Brotherhood, has formed a political party for the first time since it was founded in the 1920s. Over the past 80 odd years it was variously suppressed by the State or forced to live in the shadows. The Freedom and Justice Party (hizb il-hurriya w'il-adala) will be the vehicle by which it contests parliamentary elections, due in the autumn. The Muslim Brotherhood has already said it will contest up to half the seats, though it will not field a candidate for the presidential elections due later in the year.

It is not clear how different the party will be ideologically and organisationally from the Muslim Brotherhood . Secretary General of the Brotherhood Mahmoud Hussein declared that "this party will be independent from the Brotherhood but will co-ordinate with it."

Parties which are based on religion continue to be banned, although few will distinguish between the Freedom and Justice Party and its progenitor.

Some of the younger members of the Muslim Brotherhood have already raised objections to the way in which the leadership of the party was chosen. The decision was taken by the Shura Council of the Brotherhood rather than by an election of the founding members of the party.

The Shura Council named Mohamed Morsy as the chairman of the party, Dr Essam El-Erian as his deputy and Dr Mohamed Saad El-Ketatney as the party's secretary general. The three were obliged to renounce their positions on the Guidance Council of the Muslim Brotherhood , in an attempt to show a distinction between the Brotherhood and the party it has spawned.

El-Erian defended the decision to make appointments directly rather than through elections, saying time was pressing if the party was actively to contest parliamentary elections in the autumn.

El-Ketatny said El-Ketatny said they are finalising all the paperwork. "We will wait for a month as scheduled by the committee then we will start the activities of our party."

For more news and expert analysis about Egypt, please see Egypt Politics & Security.

© 2011 Menas Associates

Sonatrach's former CEO Mohamed Meziane jailed

Sonatrach's former CEO, Mohamed Meziane, has been sentenced to two years in prison - one of which was suspended - and ordered to pay a fine of around $7,000, for embezzlement of public funds. Meziane was suspended from his job in January 2010 while being investigated for corruption.

Several other top Sonatrach officials were also investigated and later fired along with Meziane. Four other defendants in the case, including Abdelhafid Feghouli, Benamar Touati, Mekki Henni and Nechnech Tidjini, were also sentenced to one year in jail. All five men pleaded innocence.

Meziane was appointed in September 2003 to oversee the running of Algeria's biggest firm which employs 125,000 people and has reportedly made $9.2 billion profit in 2008 for an annual turnover of $80.8 billion.

The ruling came amid rising unrest over lack of progress with reforms as promised by Algeria's President Abdelaziz Bouteflika.

Sources: WSJ, AFP, Bloomberg, Reuters

For more news and expert analysis about Algeria, please see Algeria Focus and Algeria Politics & Security.

Brazil: Military mutterings

Renewed danger of a rift between the military and the government has arisen over the latter's interest in establishing a truth commission to investigate crimes committed by federal agents, and notably by the military, during the 1964–85 dictatorship. A general amnesty law was passed in 1979, and the military argues that it erased all responsibility for torture, murder, and disappearances.

The government is now headed by Dilma Rousseff, who was herself a victim of illegal imprisonment and torture, and she is keen on seeing that the perpetrators are punished.

Minister of Defence Nelson Jobim (PMDB-RS) – a former chief justice and minister of justice – sides with the government, but the military, otherwise quiescent since the resumption of democratic rule, is restless and producing manifestos of various kinds. The government will have to be extra careful on how it handles this potential crisis.

At a military ceremony held on 5th April in Brasília to introduce to the president the newly promoted general officers of the three armed services, Rousseff broke with precedent by refusing the officers' military salute and substituting a firm handshake. In her carefully worded speech, Rousseff ignored the ongoing debate about human rights violations during the military period, but underlined that "the country has corrected its own ways…and attained a high level of institutional maturity".

What emerged clearly from this ceremony is that Rousseff's relationship with the military is a tranquil one. She reassured them about the need to re-equip the armed forces.

On 27th April, the state of Rio de Janeiro held a public ceremony of reparation to political prisoners who were victims of military dictatorship in the state. This is the first such symbolic reparation.

For more news and expert analysis about Brazil, please see Brazil Focus.

© 2011 Menas Associates

President Al-Bashir threatens South Sudan over

Sudan's President Omar Al-Bashir has threatened not to recognise the new country of South Sudan if it tries to claim the disputed border region of Abyei.

The South Sudanese voted overwhelmingly to separate from the north in a January referendum, and will become independent on 9th July, 2011.

The referendum was part of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA), signed in 2005 to end the decades-long civil war.

Abyei is a border region claimed by both sides. It was due to have its own referendum in January to decide whether to stay with the north or join the south, but it was delayed due to disagreements over who should be eligible to vote.

Both sides have increased their military presence in the border regions since and there have been numerous clashes, causing dozens of deaths.

The Dinka Ngok, a southern ethnic group, are permanent residents in Abyei, but the Arab, and Khartoum-backed, Misseriya population spends part of every year in Abyei as they move with their cattle, searching for pastures.

Al-Bashir accepted the results of the January referendum and had previously said he would be the first to recognize the new state. But in a speech on 26th April, he threatened to withhold recognition if the South continues to claim Abyei.

"I say it and repeat it for the millionth time, Abyei is northern and will remain northern," he declared during a speech in Southern Kordofan state, which sits close to Abyei and has a large Misseriya population.

The issue has arisen because South Sudan has recently released a new draft constitution, which lays claim to Abyei. The constitution was accepted at a constitutional endorsement meeting chaired by South Sudan's President Salva Kiir on 2nd May. It now needs to be passed by the South Sudan Legislative Assembly, which is dominated by the ruling Sudan People's Liberation Movement (SPLM).

Many within South Sudan have voiced opposition to the new constitution, which grants a new four year term to Kiir, arguing that they had not been adequately consulted.

The South Sudan government is also facing more violent opposition, and there are at least seven rebel militas fighting to overthrow the government, which they say serves only its own interests, ignoring minority tribes and rural communities.

Numerous talks over Abyei in recent years have amounted to little and both sides appear unwilling to compromise over ownership. Analysts say it could return the country to civil war, which has plagued it for the majority of its post-colonial period.

Sources: BBC News, Reuters, Sudan Tribune

For more news and expert analysis about the Sahara region, please see Sahara Focus.