Yemen: Saleh will continue to lead the GPC

President Ali Abdullah Saleh has been playing his usual games. One day he says he will leave Yemen for medical treatment. A few days later he says that he will stay, blaming the opposition for some real or imagined slight. The latest move was that he would remain head of the General People's Congress (GPC) and lead the campaign for Abd al-Rab Mansour Hadi 's election. He claims he needs to be in Yemen to help the transition arrangements and wants to get away from the attention on him and allow the national unity government to get on with its work.

There are difficulties over the question of immunity. The GPC will support the deal when it comes to parliament but the Joint Meeting Parties (JMP) prefer a broader “reconciliation law” that would cover acts committed by some of Saleh's opponents. GPC leaders claim that Saleh's opponents were responsible for the attack on the Nahdain mosque on 3rd June and think the law is designed to prevent them from being prosecuted. The investigation into this is continuing but remains a potential time bomb.

Human rights groups point out that the immunity deal only applies in Yemen and that Saleh could face arrest if he travels abroad – and there are many who would attempt to bring action against him. This may have been the reason why the US administration seemed reluctant to allow Saleh to travel to the US for medical treatment, although it may also have wanted stronger assurances from Saleh that he would honour the transition deal. It may also be mindful of the protests that will come from the streets if Saleh not only receives treatment but also remain free while they are demanding his trial. Formally, the US did not respond to the request for a visa.

The Yemeni government will also have to take regard of a statement by Navi Pillay , the UN high commissioner for human rights: “Amnesties are not permissible if they prevent the prosecution of individuals who may be criminally responsible for international crimes, including war crimes, crimes against humanity, genocide and gross violations of human rights. Based on information we have gathered, there is reason to believe that some of these crimes were committed in Yemen during the period for which an amnesty is under consideration. Such an amnesty would be in violation of Yemen's international human rights obligations.”

For more news and expert analysis about Yemen, please see Yemen Focus.

© 2012 Menas Associates

Yemen: Al-Qa'ida militants break out of prison in Aden

Yemeni officials have confirmed that 12 Al-Qa'ida militants have broken out of prison in the southern city of Aden. The militants and two other accomplices escaped through a six metre tunnel dug from the yard at the city's central prison.

The officials added that the militants were being tried for bank robbery or were charged with assassinations of security officers. In June, al–Qa'ida members raided the central jail in the southern city Mukalla, freeing dozens of prisoners.

The security situation in the country is deteriorating. Yemen's army has been inovleved in ongoing fighting with al-Qa'ida militants around the country for months. Yemen is undergoing a political crisis, which has incited insurgency in the north, a separatist movement in the south, nationwide protests calling for reform and free elections and heavy conflicts between different factions in the capital Sana'a.

Last month, President Ali Abdullah Saleh agreed to to hand his powers to his deputy and quit within 90 days. The most violent finding between security forces and the militants were reported in the city of Zinjibar, the capital of Abyan province.

According to the UN, suspected Al-Qaeda fighters have displaced around 45,000 people in southern Yemen alone.

Sources: BBC News, Reuters, WSJ

For more news and expert analysis about Yemen, please see Yemen Focus.

Yemen: New clashes between protesters and army result in more deaths

Reports have emerged that at least seven people have been killed in more violent clashes in Sana'a. According to medical officials, government forces opened fire on protesters who have been calling for President Ali Abdullah Saleh to resign.

Witnesses said that protesters were making their way to government buildings when they were accosted by security forces. The reports about the latest fatalities come just a day after some of the worst clashes in Sana'a for weeks.

A doctor from a makeshift hospital in Change Square said around 50 people sustained shot wounds and many others were affected by tear gas. Many of the protesters came under fire from security troops as they marched from Change Square to the loyalist-held al-Qaa neighbourhood, where several government offices are located.

According to witnesses, thousands of people are trapped in the square coming under fire from hundreds of loyalist forces. Leaders of the protests said rallies against Saleh's rule also took place in the southern cities of Aden and Taez, where one person was reported killed late on Monday 17th October.

In a letter to UN chief Ban Ki-moon, Yemen's new Nobel Peace Prize winner, Tawakul Karman, called on the UN to take "immediate and decisive action to stop the massacres and hold the perpetrators accountable".

A spokesman for the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights Rupert Colville said he condemned "in the strongest terms the reported killing of a number of largely peaceful protesters in Sanaa and Taez as a result of the indiscriminate use of force by Yemeni security forces since Saturday".

He added: “We are extremely concerned that security forces continue to use excessive force in a climate of complete impunity for crimes, resulting in heavy loss of life and injury, despite repeated pledges by the government to the contrary.”

Sources: BBC News, Reuters, WSJ

For more news and expert analysis about Yemen, please see Yemen Focus.

Yemen: More protesters shot by security forces

According to a number of in-country sources, Yemeni security forces have fired on protesters for the second day running killing four people and injuring several others. Soldiers opened fire on tens of thousands of people during a rally in Sana'a. The unrest has been on-going for a number of months, with protesters calling for long term President Ali Abdullah Saleh to resign.

Saleh is back in the country after three months in Saudi Arabia, following an attack on his residence. Despite numerous calls for his resignation, Saleh refuses to step down.

It is estimated that 12 people were killed and around 80 injured during a similar protest on Saturday 15th October. The political unrest, spurred by the Jasmine Revolution in Tunisia, has been going for eight months but is no nearer a resolution.

The demonstrators camped out in Sana'a's Change Square, were trying to march towards the presidential palace when they were targeted by security forces.

Director of a makeshift hospital in Change Square, Mohammed al-Qubati, told Associated Press news agency that the death toll had risen to four and at least 37 people were injured.

According to eyewitnesses, on Saturday protesters were heading to an area controlled by the elite Republican Guard force, which is loyal to the president, when they were accosted. Not only is Saleh being called on to resign by ordinary civilians, he is also facing insurrection by defected army elements.

Sources: BBC News, AP, Bloomberg

For more news and expert analysis about Yemen, please see Yemen Focus.

Yemen: Can the young protesters create political parties?

The international community has been quietly urging the young protesters to start forming political parties that might be able to take part in future elections. There are signs that some of the young people are listening. The Co-ordinating Council for Revolutionary Change (which said that 891 demonstrators had been killed since the protests started in February – government sources say that a total of over 1,400 have died) has been an effective voice to the media.

Students have spoken of several groups within it that already have over 40,000 members. They are not likely to obtain licences to set up parties under present conditions (students say that the authorities insist that any new political party must first endorse the rule of President Ali Abdullah Saleh). At least one of the so-called parties appears to be what might in other circumstances be the youth wing of the GPC.

Islah is well organised within the protest movement. Most students want new parties and do not want to be associated with any of the existing ones, all of which have been discredited in the eyes of the young people.

For more news and expert analysis about Yemen, please see Yemen Focus.

© 2011 Menas Associates

Warplane airstrike kills 30 Yemeni soldiers

Yemeni local officials have said that almost 30 soldiers have been killed in south of the country during a Yemeni warplane airstrike. The government has denied the reports. The assault on Saturday 1st October hit the 119th brigade troops near Zinjibar, in the Abyan province, and was followed by militant attacks.

It is yet to be confirmed whether the attack was an error. Yemeni TV, however, denied the bombing took place.

It is thought that the 119th brigade has joined a rebellion against President Ali Abdullah Saleh, who is now back in the country after three months in Saudi Arabia.

The militants suspected to be linked to the Al-Qa'ida have exploited the security vacuum in the country to launch a number of attacks on civilians and military personnel.

The army has been involved in an ongoing battle to reclaim territory. Last month, it recaptured Zinjibar. In country opposition, however, says the Yemeni government has exaggerated Al-Qa'ida's activities in order to gain international sympathies.

According to the BBC, the warplane hit an abandoned school, where the regiment was taking shelter. An unnamed military official also told AFP news agency that militants later attacked the base and "killed even more soldiers".

The ongoing turmoil in southern Yemen has ignited fears about the prospect of a civil war ever since military units and tribal groups joined anti-government protests in recent months.

More protests were reported in Sana'a on Sunday 2nd October, with people still calling for Saleh to resign. The Yemeni president, who sought treatment in Saudi Arabia after an attempt on his life, refuses to step-down but has recently called for peace in the country.

The latest attack in south Yemen follows the killing of US-born Islamist cleric Anwar al-Awlaki, seen as the key figure in the Al-Qa'ida in the Arabian Peninsula. Al-Awlaki is thought to have been killed by a suspected US drone in the east of the country.

Sources: AFP, BBC News, Reuters

r more news and expert analysis about Yemen, please see Yemen Focus.

Yemen: Defence Minister Mohamed Nasser Ali escapes attack

Yemeni authorities have said that the country's Defence Minister Maj Gen Mohamed Nasser Ali escaped an attack on his convoy in the city of Aden. It is thought that a suicide bomber drove a vehicle full of explosive into the defence minister's convoy while others attacked by hurling hand grenades.

It is estimated that at least three soldiers were killed and nine others injured. The ongoing political turmoil in the country has given rise to outbreaks of violence. Yemen now faces serious security hurdles, including fighting between various ethnic factions and a surge in attacks by the Al-Qa'ida.

Islamist fighters connected to the Al-Qa'ida have taken advantage of Yemen's insecurity during the ongoing unrest and fighting between anti-government protesters and supporters of President Ali Abdullah Saleh.

Three months after an attempt on his life, Saleh returned to Yemen from Saudi Arabia on Friday 23rd September. Just hours after his return, a government spokesman said the president was calling for a “truce and a ceasefire.” But protests urging him to step down are still taking place in cities across the country.

It is yet unclear who carried out the attack on Ali's convoy, but one official told AFP news agency that the defence minister's convoy was hit as it left a tunnel on the way back to his hotel.

Ali was on an official visit to Aden, following reports that militants have recently taken control of three towns in the Abyan province. The Yemeni army has been deployed to the region in order to gain control of the territory.

Sources: BBC News, AFP, Bloomberg

For more news and expert analysis about Yemen, please see Yemen Focus.

Violent clashes continue in Sana'a despite ceasefire

Violence has once again erupted in Yemen's capital city of Sana'a; just days after Yemen's Vice President Abd Rabbo Mansour Hadi agreed a truce following negotiations with western envoys who had urged an end to the violence.

It is estimated that at least three people have died while protesting. It is thought that they were hit by sniper fire and shelling, which put an end to the ceasefire. Thousands of people gathered in a protests camp called Change Square in the city centre, for the funerals of those killed in recent days.

It is thought that at least 75 people have been killed in violent clashes since Sunday 18th September.

Anti-government protesters and tribal fighters have promised to continue their demonstrations against President Ali Abdullah Saleh, who refuses to step down despite being in Saudi Arabia.

Yemen's state news agency Saba has reported that Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) chief Abdulatif al-Zayani, who arrived in Yemen on Tuesday, has now left the country after failing to reach a resolution about the ongoing crisis.

Speaking to AFP news agency an unnamed military official from the First Armoured Brigade, commanded by dissident Gen Ali Mohsen al-Ahmar, said the shelling had targeted their headquarters, based near Change Square.

UN and GCC officials arrived in Yemen in hope of finding a solution to the ongoing crisis but failed to do so. The opposition have accused the government of orchestrating violence to derail any chance of agreement.

Speaking about it, the head of the opposition Yemeni National Council, Mohamed Qubaty, said it was an attempt by the authorities to "dodge" the requirements and the views of the GCC, especially the restructuring of the army and security forces.

The accusations have been continually rebuffed by government officials, who say that the unrest has been incited by Al-Qa'ida militants. The past three days have been the deadliest since demonstrations against Saleh began in January.

Sources: AFP, BBC News, Reuters

For more news and expert analysis about Yemen, please see Yemen Focus.

More than 50 killed in Sana'a over last two days

According to a number of sources, explosions all over Sana'a were heard throughout the night. It is thought that at least two people died during clashes with security forces, who continue firing shells at protester camps in Yemen's capital.

The country's security troops launched an offensive on protesters on Sunday 18th September, killing more than 50 people in two days. Congregations of anti-government activists have occupied various corners of Sana'a during the course of the year, calling for President Ali Abdullah Saleh to step down.

Saleh, who has been in power for over three decades, is currently in Saudi Arabia. He fled to the neighbouring country in June after sustaining various injuries when a rocket hit his presidential compound. Despite a number of calls for Saleh to step down, the Yemeni president remains in power and has continually vowed to return to Yemen.

The ongoing violence has been exacerbated in the last couple of days by security forces shooting at protesters from the rooftops. Government officials, however, have continued to deny that soldiers are targeting civilians, saying the unrest has been incited by Al-Qa'ida elements within the opposition.

More protests and deadly clashes between security forces and civilians have been reported in the cities of Taiz and Aden. Yemen has been plagued by internal problems and poverty for decades, as well as rampant terrorism.

On Monday 19th September, UN and Gulf Cooperation Council envoys landed in Yemen in a bid to sort out a ceasefire deal and stop the violence. It is yet to be seen whether or not the mission will be successful.

Sources: BBC News, Reuters, AFP

For more news and expert analysis about Yemen, please see Yemen Focus.

President Saleh accuses his adversaries of corruption

In a televised address to the Yemini community in Saudi Arabia, President Ali Abdullah Saleh accused his adversaries of being corrupt and exploiting young protesters.

The Yemeni leader who has been in Riyadh since early June for treatment after he was wounded in a bomb attack on his Sana'a compound, said: "Those who went to the University Square to support the youth revolution that demands the ouster of the regime... have fed on corruption, and are dealers of arms and land… Our people know them well. They were a burden on the political system which was always blamed for protecting those corrupt... who are now (demonstrating) at the University Square.”

Saleh added: "Let them go away... corrupt, liars and deceivers. We do not mention names, but our people know them very well." It is speculated that he was referring to the leaders of the opposition who have backed the popular protests that began in January.

In a similar address on Tuesday 30th September, on the occasion of the Muslim Eid al-Fitr feast, which marks the end of the fasting month, Saleh called for a mechanism to implement a Gulf plan aimed at a peaceful transition of power. According to Saba State news agency, Saleh told his ruling General People's Congress party to "make contact with the (opposition) Common Forum to develop a mechanism for implementing the Gulf plan without delay".

The Gulf plan stipulates that Saleh transfer power to Yemen's Vice President Abdu Rabo Mansour Hadi within 30 days in exchange for immunity from prosecution.

Sources: AP, AFP, Bloomberg

For more news and expert analysis about Yemen, please see Yemen Focus.

Yemen: Southerners focus on survival

In the south, there have been few new developments as people are preoccupied with trying to run their own areas, obtain fuel and food and provide security in the continuing absence of an effective central authority. Aden is in a particularly sorry state, even compared with three months ago.

The organised protests have been mostly directed against the regime and make common cause with all those in Yemen demanding that President Ali Abdullah Saleh should go. The demand for secession has not gone away, even though the street protesters now argue for a solution within a united Yemen. The main external leaders met in Cairo in mid-July to coordinate their position with the Joint Meeting Parties and clarify the terms they want for a federal Yemen. They have been trying to explain exactly what they meant about a previous statement that said Yemen's oil would be owned by the south in any future federal Yemen. The leaders now say that the oil will be “owned” by the south but that the federal government would exploit it and distribute revenues according to an agreed formula. That will still be rejected by any likely regime in the north but it is a more conciliatory position than the previous one.

There is continuing concern about the fate of Hassan Baum, one of the most effective internal leaders of the southern movement, who has been in prison for some months. Reports in early August spoke of major differences between external leaders of the movement such as Haydar al-Attas and the secessionists, who tend to look to Ali Salim al-Bidh, ensconced in his Austrian Schloss, as the external leader they might accept. Brigadier Ali Mohammed Assadi, one of the internal leaders close to Baum, who wants nothing short of secession, gave his view of southern Yemen as “a liberal, social democracy, similar to current European socialism”. He said he saw this as carrying on from where the PDRY was in early 1990. He must have a very selective memory – but then one of the problems in the southern movement is that all have redacted memories of PDRY, most of which are conflicting and inaccurate.

For more news and expert analysis about Yemen, please see Yemen Focus.

© 2011 Menas Associates

Yemen: Al-Qa'ida raids a prison freeing militants

On Wednesday 22nd June, armed Al-Qa'ida fighters raided a prison in southern Yemen, freeing dozens of suspected militants, killing one security guard and wounding two others.

Armed with heavy machine guns the militants fought their way through the guards. The prison in Al-Mukalla, the capital of Hadramawt province, is said to house more than a 100 Qa'ida members, 58 of whom have been tried in court and have received sentences.

Spokesman for the civil society organisations in Hadramawt, Nasser Bakazzuz, has accused Yemeni authorities of assisting Al-Qa'ida with the raid and subsequent freeing of militants.

Speaking about it Bakazzuz said, “The regime is living its last days and wants to create chaos in Hadramawt province ... there was no attack by Al-Qa'ida on the jail to free prisoners.”

Just days ago Yemeni troops killed 12 suspected Al-Qa'ida militants near the southern town of Zinjibar. The rebels were targeted while planting roadside bombs. It is estimated that at least a 100 soldiers have been killed and 260 injured since the violence in Zinjibar erupted more than three weeks ago.

Despite President Ali Abdullah Saleh's departure for Saudi Arabia, where he recently underwent surgery for injuries sustained during an attack on his compound in Sana'a, Yemen remains split between government loyalists in the south and tribesmen and renegade military units in the north. There a fears that the situation is getting out of control and could potentially lead to a civil war.

Sources: BBC News, The Guardian, AFP

For more news and expert analysis about Yemen, please see Yemen Focus.

Yemen: Twelve suspected Al-Qai'da militants killed in Zinjibar

Yemeni officials have said that the country's troops have killed 12 suspected Al-Qai'da militants near the southern town of Zinjibar. It is believed that the rebels were targeted while planting roadside bombs.

It has also emerged that two soldiers were killed when armed men attacked a military base close to the town. Yemeni officials have said that the al-Qai'da is exploiting a security vacuum within the country due to the on-going political turmoil.

On Sunday 19th June, more anti-government demonstrations were held in the capital city of Sana'a and the southern city of Taiz. Last month, Islamist militants took over Zinjibar, the capital of Abyan province, making the government's grip on the country weaker than ever.

Yemen is split between President Ali Abdullah Saleh's loyalist in the south and tribesmen and renegade military units in the north. There a fears that the situation is getting out of control and could potentially lead to a civil war.

The protests against Saleh's rule intensified after the president reneged on a deal brokered by the Gulf Arab states to secure a peaceful end to his time in office. Late on Thursday 2nd May, the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), whose power transition plan Saleh refused to sign three times, said it would continue its efforts towards a "peaceful solution".

Saleh is currently in Saudi Arabia, where he recently underwent surgery for injuries sustained during an attack on his compound in Sana'a. It is yet unclear when and if he will ever return to Yemen.

Sources: BBC News, Reuters, Bloomberg

For more news and expert analysis about Yemen, please see Yemen Focus.

Yemen: Twelve killed by suspected Al-Qai'da militants

Yemen's Defence Ministry has said that at least 12 security troops have been killed by suspected Al-Qai'da militants in the southern province of Abyan. An unnamed official in the region said government troops were making their way to Anyan's capital Zinjibar, and were captured by militants.

The Ministry's statement said the troops were killed in gun-battle in the province's Doves and Kod areas, but gave no further details.

In related news, at least 100 have been injured after supporters of Yemen's embattled leader, President Ali Abdullah Saleh, fired into the air to celebrate the reportedly successful surgery he underwent in Saudi Arabia.

Security officials have said that at least 40 private cars were damaged by gunfire early on Thursday 09th June. Among the injured were 20 people from Sana'a's square, the epicentre of anti-government demonstrations.

Saleh underwent surgery on Monday 06th June to remove shards of wood from his chest and treat burns on his face from an attack on his Sana'a compound. There is still uncertainty about the seriousness of his injuries. They are not life-threatening but some reports say it will take him weeks to recover. It is, however, far from certain that he will ever return to Yemen.

Sources: Seattle PI, The Associated Press, Atlanta Journal Constitution, AP

For more news and expert analysis about Yemen, please see Yemen Focus.

Yemen: Saleh retires, hurt, to Saudi Arabia, perhaps never to return

President Ali Abdullah Saleh is in Saudi Arabia for treatment for wounds sustained when either a rocket or shell struck a mosque inside the presidential compound on 3rd June. Several senior people with him were severely injured including Ali al-Mujawwar, the prime minister, two of his deputies, Rashad al-Alimi and Sadiq Amin Abu Ras, head of the Shoura Council (upper house of parliament) Abd al-Aziz Abd al-Ghani and the speaker of the lower house, Yahya al-Rai. Thirty-five members of Saleh's family are in Riyadh with him but they do not include his son Ahmad, the commander of the Republican Guard and Special Forces, or his nephews, Ammar, Yahya and Tariq.

The attack took place soon after shelling of the compound of Shaikh Sadiq al-Ahmar, the head of the Al-Hashid tribal confederation, and came after nearly a week of fighting in Sana'a between the Republican Guard and other forces commanded by Saleh's sons and nephews and tribal militia loyal to Sadiq. Saleh's spokesmen have accused the Al-Ahmar of trying to assassinate the president. They have denied this. There is much speculation about who was responsible for the attack but the Al-Ahmar remain the main suspects. There was an attack on Hamid al-Ahmar's compound later in the day by Republican Guards.

The president's supporters at first described his injuries as minor and promised a television address later in the day. Saleh spoke briefly much later. There were no pictures and he sounded very weary. Vice president Abd al-Rab Mansour Hadi is acting head of state, ostensibly until the return of the president. The acting minister of information said that, “The state has its institutions that can deal with these kinds of circumstances and constitutional procedures will be followed.” Others from Saleh's entourage have said he will return after treatment. There is still uncertainty about the seriousness of his wounds. They are not life-threatening but some reports say it will take him weeks to recover. It is, however, far from certain that he will ever return to Yemen.

For more news and expert analysis about Yemen, please see Yemen Focus.

© 2011 Menas Associates

Deadly clashes in Sana'a continue

There seems to be no end in sight for the deadly clashes between forces loyal to President Ali Abdullah Saleh and tribal fighters. Last night, the fighting intensified in Sana'a as tribal fighters reportedly tried to force their way through government lines north of the city.

It is estimated that at least 135 people have been killed in the last 10 days during heavy armed battles between the two sides. Yesterday, the fighting got worse as security forces fired live bullets at people protesting against Saleh's three decade rule.

Fighting near the capital's airport briefly grounded flights. State television showed the Yemeni Airways building on fire and heavily damaged government offices, which had been taken back by the forces.

The country is split between Saleh's loyalist in the south and tribesmen and renegade military units in the north. There a fears that the situation is getting out of control and could potential lead to a civil war.

The protests against Saleh's rule intensified after the president reneged on a deal brokered by the Gulf Arab states to secure a peaceful end to his time in office. Late on Thursday 2nd May, the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), whose power transition plan Saleh refused to sign three times, said it would continue its efforts towards a "peaceful solution".

Sources: BBC News, Sky News, Bloomberg

For more news and expert analysis about Yemen, please see Yemen Focus.

More deadly clashes in Sana'a

Yemeni officials have confirmed that as many as 40 people have been killed in deadly clashes in Sana'a. Fighting broke out between Yemeni security forces and tribal fighters, loyal to tribe leader Sheikh Sadiq Al-Ahmar, breaching the ceasefire.

Yemen's Defence Ministry accused the tribal fighters of seizing the headquarters of the ruling General People's Congress in the capital, however, sources close to Sheikh Ahmar say government troops attacked his complex in the north of the city.

On Tuesday 30th May, 12 protesters were shot dead in the southern city of Taiz following a move by security forces to remove a protest camp from the city centre. There was more violence in the town of Zinjibar, between government forces and alleged Al-Qai'da militants.

On Wednesday 25th May, US President Barack Obama said President Ali Abdullah Saleh should "move immediately on his commitment to transfer power". UN Secretary General Ban Ki-Moon added that he was "deeply troubled" by the violence and called on all sides to find a peaceful solution. But the situation in Yemen seems to be deteriorating rather than improving with Saleh refusing to help ease the crisis; many fear the prospect of a civil war.

Sources: BBC News, The Associated Press, AFP, Reuters

For more news and expert analysis about Yemen, please see Yemen Focus.

Yemen: Saleh refused to step-down, again

Yemen's long-term President Ali Abdullah Saleh has once again agreed and then refused to sign a power sharing agreement, brokered by the Gulf. The deal, which was originally to be signed last month, was cancelled at the last minute.

The agreement, which has been subject to amendments after US and European intervention, was also expected to be overseen by both Yemen's General People's Congress party and the opposition, the Common Front.

Yemeni opposition officials have said that the agreement would have seen Saleh, who has ruled Yemen for over three decades, out of office within a month.

Discussions about the ongoing crisis in the country and arrangements for Saleh's departure broke down on Wednesday 18th May, when Saleh once again refused to sign the Gulf Co-operation Council (GCC) mediated deal which would have allowed him to step-down in exchange for immunity from prosecution.

Saleh's rebuff has prompted GCC chief, Abdul-Latif Al-Zayyani, to leave the country.

The president's aide, Ahmed Al-Sufi, confirmed that Saleh was not going to attend the newly scheduled signing on Sunday 22nd May. According to the spokesman, Saleh changed his mind due to the ongoing international diplomatic pressure.

Speaking about the situation in Yemen, US President Barack Obama said: "President Saleh needs to follow through on his commitment to transfer power.''

Sources: BBC News, Aljazeera, Voice of America, Reuters

For more news and expert analysis about Yemen, please see Yemen Focus.

Yemen: US position shifts

Yemen's regional and international friends are deeply frustrated by the inability of Yemen's politicians to agree on a way forward and presumably by their own powerlessness to influence events.

Many experts had predicted that President Ali Abdullah Saleh would fall when the US and Saudi governments ceased to support him. That support was withdrawn in late March, though nothing was said in public and the US appears to have concluded that the fight against Al-Qa'eda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP), which is Washington 's main priority in Yemen, could not be pursued with a president whose position had become untenable. A US spokesperson had condemned the violence of recent weeks as “appalling” and another had spoken of an urgently needed agreement on a transition – Saleh leaving power, in other words. The US froze its new aid programme to Yemen, due to start in February.

The US and its allies fully understand the problems that any new regime will encounter but now see this as a lesser evil than Saleh staying on, even though there must be deep concerns about how the counter-terrorist forces led by Saleh's close relatives can remain intact. The US has been careful – in public – not to be seen to be interfering too overtly and wants to leave the details to the Yemeni people. As one US official put it, President Saleh has expressed “his willingness to engage in a peaceful transition, but we don't have any specifics, we don't have any timelines”.

The EU governments have been speaking more plainly, demanding that Saleh agree to a transitional arrangement. French foreign minister Alain Juppé went further, saying that the “resignation of the Yemeni president has become inevitable”. Turkey, a regional power with growing influence on the peninsula, said that it expected “Yemen's administration to show respect for the fundamental rights and freedoms of the demonstrators who have been expressing their expectations and demands through peaceful means. We wish Yemen's future to be determined within the scope of a comprehensive national dialogue process that would be carried out with the participation of all segments of the society.”

The UN Security Council discussed the situation in Yemen on 19 April and eventually issued a neutral statement, apparently because of the unwillingness of China and Russia to use stronger language. This is consistent with their stance on the Arab Spring, where they have wanted to let each state decide for itself on its future, without outside interference.

For more news and expert analysis about Yemen, please see Yemen Focus.

© 2011 Menas Associates

Yemeni security forces open fire on protesters

Yemen's security forces have fired at anti-government demonstrators, in the south-western city of Taiz, reportedly killing at least 15 people and injuring many more. Reports have emerged that security officers opened fire on the protesters from the rooftops, before the procession reached the governor's office.

The clashes follow weeks of protests across the country, calling for long-term President Ali Abdullah Saleh to resign immediately. Initially, in a bid to appease the increasingly vociferous public, Saleh said he will not run for re-election in 2012 but has remained firm in his decision to finish his term in office.

On Monday 4th March, crowds of protesters in Taiz began marching toward Freedom Square. The procession was blocked by armed security troops after passing the governor's headquarters. Clashes broke out between the two side leaving dozens injured.

Tanks and armoured vehicles are now blocking entrances to the city and have surrounded Freedom Square, apprehending anyone attempting to leave.

Sources: BBC News, FT, New York Times

For more news and expert analysis about Yemen, please see Yemen Focus.