South Sudan sells first oil

South Sudan has sold its first oil as an independent country this week, despite the lack of an agreement on oil revenues with Sudan.

South Sudan, which declared independence from Khartoum on 9th July, sold 1 million barrels to Chinese buyer Chinaoil, a Petrochina subsidiary, on Monday 18th July. Reuters estimates the shipment to be worth US$110 million.

Director General for Energy in South Sudan, Arkangelo Okwang, said they would ship a further 600,000 barrels on 23rd July.

Okwang said he expected the north to bill the South for the use of its facilities, but that nothing had yet been decided.

Sudan fought a decades-long civil war, which ended with the signing of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) in 2005. The CPA outlined a revenue-sharing agreement for oil, in which Sudan and the autonomous South Sudan each received 50 per cent.

Three-quarters of Sudan's 500,000 barrel-a-day output comes from the South, and is crucial to both countries economy. While much of the oil lies in South Sudan, the new nation lacks the infrastructure to exploit its reserves, and so the oil has to be moved to market through the north.

While South Sudan's President Salva Kiir said in June, 2010 that it would be possible for oil revenues to continue to be shared, he has taken an increasingly hard line in recent months.

On Wednesday 20th June, Kiir threatened to stop using the pipelines in Sudan if Khartoum insisted on sharing oil revenues as opposed to receiving transit fees.

“I am saying that we will rent the North's oil pipelines and we will give them money for our oil to be transported, and we will of course pay and there is no problem," Kiir said at a speech to a military base in South Sudan.

"However, this offer is unaccepted by the North. We have agreed on one thing that the oil issue should not be disrupted. They [Sudan] need oil. But we fought for 21 years without oil and we can still go for 3 years until we build our own oil infrastructure,” Kiir added.

Lead negotiator for South Sudan on oil issues, Pagan Amum, was reported in the Sudan Tribune as saying that the north had asked for “unfair and unreasonable” conditions of passage.

“They came with crazy ideas saying they are going to impose several transit fees – a usage fee, something called a normal transit fee, then something called a special fee – maybe $15 per barrel, even more – then maybe other charges, and they wanted revenue-sharing to continue,” Amum said.

Amum said the south was instead prepared to offer $3bn in “assistance” to the north and offered transit fees in line with international norms, citing 41 cents per barrel charged by the Chad-Cameroon pipeline, which is a similar-length.

Khartoum is keen to salvage as much from the south's oil supplies as possible, and Sudan's Finance Minister Ali Mahmood Hassanein said on 19th July that Khartoum was in the process of crafting laws which would set the fees they would expect the South to pay.

He said the fees would contain three levels based on the fact that oil passes through Sudan which requires the imposition of sovereign fees.

Khartoum has threatened to cut shipments of oil from the south along its piplines if the south refuses to pay transit fees or continuing sharing oil revenues. Likewise, Juba has said it will build its own oil infrastructure, moving the oil south, if Khartoum doesn't agree on transit fees.

A delegation from the South is expected to travel to the north to carry out talks soon.

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© 2011 Menas Associates

Sudan to withdraw troops from Abyei

North and South Sudan have agreed to withdraw unauthorised troops from the disputed Abyei region, according to a UN statement from 8th May.

There have been several clashes in the area in recent months, leading to dozens of deaths.

Both sides accuse the other of sending unauthorised troops and militia to Abyei, violating the 2005 Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA), which ended decades of civil war in Sudan.

In a January independence referendum, South Sudan overwhelmingly voted to secede from the north, and will become a new state on 9th July, 2011.

The oil-rich Abyei region, which straddles the border, was due to have its own referendum on whether to join the north or south in January, but the vote never took place because Khartoum and Juba could not agree on voter eligibility.

The UN Mission in Sudan (UNMIS) released a statement on Sunday 8th May which said that the troop pullout would start from Tuesday, and should be completed within a week. The region would then be monitored by joint patrols.

The move was agreed at a meeting of northern and southern representatives and headed by UNMIS Force Commander Major General Moses Obi .

A peace accord signed in January also called on both sides to withdraw all forces, excepting the special Joint Integrated Units (JIUs) of northern and southern personnel, and UN peacekeepers.

The so-called Kadugli Agreement – named after the South Kordofan state capital where the agreement was signed – has not been upheld, and it remains to be seen if the most recent agreement is more successful.

South Sudan recently published a new draft constitution which specifically lays claim to Abyei.

Sudan 's President Omar Al-Bashir threatened to withhold recognition of the new state if the claims to Abyei were not dropped.

The north backs the Arab Misseriya tribes, which spend part of the year in Abyei as they search for pastures for their cattle.

The South supports the Dinka Ngok , permanent residents of the region.

Misseriya and Dinka Ngok personnel often clash, alledgedly with the support of the northern and southern armies.

Last week, 14 people were killed at a security checkpoint 10 miles north of Abyei town when fighting broke out between southern police forces and northern elements within the JIUs deployed there.

JIUs were established as part of the 2005 CPA, but according to the International Crisis Group , they have largely failed in their intentions.

They have performed poorly, been involved in numerous large-scale clashes and are characterised by mistrust.

Sources: BBC News, AFP, ICG, Sudan Vision Daily

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President Al-Bashir threatens South Sudan over

Sudan's President Omar Al-Bashir has threatened not to recognise the new country of South Sudan if it tries to claim the disputed border region of Abyei.

The South Sudanese voted overwhelmingly to separate from the north in a January referendum, and will become independent on 9th July, 2011.

The referendum was part of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA), signed in 2005 to end the decades-long civil war.

Abyei is a border region claimed by both sides. It was due to have its own referendum in January to decide whether to stay with the north or join the south, but it was delayed due to disagreements over who should be eligible to vote.

Both sides have increased their military presence in the border regions since and there have been numerous clashes, causing dozens of deaths.

The Dinka Ngok, a southern ethnic group, are permanent residents in Abyei, but the Arab, and Khartoum-backed, Misseriya population spends part of every year in Abyei as they move with their cattle, searching for pastures.

Al-Bashir accepted the results of the January referendum and had previously said he would be the first to recognize the new state. But in a speech on 26th April, he threatened to withhold recognition if the South continues to claim Abyei.

"I say it and repeat it for the millionth time, Abyei is northern and will remain northern," he declared during a speech in Southern Kordofan state, which sits close to Abyei and has a large Misseriya population.

The issue has arisen because South Sudan has recently released a new draft constitution, which lays claim to Abyei. The constitution was accepted at a constitutional endorsement meeting chaired by South Sudan's President Salva Kiir on 2nd May. It now needs to be passed by the South Sudan Legislative Assembly, which is dominated by the ruling Sudan People's Liberation Movement (SPLM).

Many within South Sudan have voiced opposition to the new constitution, which grants a new four year term to Kiir, arguing that they had not been adequately consulted.

The South Sudan government is also facing more violent opposition, and there are at least seven rebel militas fighting to overthrow the government, which they say serves only its own interests, ignoring minority tribes and rural communities.

Numerous talks over Abyei in recent years have amounted to little and both sides appear unwilling to compromise over ownership. Analysts say it could return the country to civil war, which has plagued it for the majority of its post-colonial period.

Sources: BBC News, Reuters, Sudan Tribune

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South Sudan names itself

South Sudan has been chosen as the name of what will be the world's newest country when it comes into existence on 9th July, ending months of speculation.

Other suggested names had included Nile Republic and Cush, a reference to a Biblical-era kingdom in the area.

Some 99 per cent of southern Sudanese voted for independence from the north of Sudan in a referendum held in January.

The name decision was announced after a meeting of the top committee of the south's ruling SPLM party.

The SPLM's Secretary General Pagan Amum said the decision, made by the party's politburo, will require approval by parliament.

But that is a formality as the SPLM holds the vast majority of seats in the assembly.

Mr Amum said negotiations were under way with the north about how to go forward with the partition and he warned of the challenges ahead.

"We are a baby nation that has just been born - and like a human baby, we are fragile but have the potential to become great," AFP news agency quotes him as saying.

He said the current pound currency would be replaced by a new currency, also to be called the pound.

The referendum on independence for the oil-rich south was part of a deal to end decades of north-south conflict.

The week-long vote itself passed off peacefully, but tension remains high in parts of the oil-rich area which straddles the north and south.

Many issues remain to be resolved before the new country is formed, including how to deal with oil revenue. The south of Sudan contains most of the oil fields, but they have to be transported through the north.

Under the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA), which brought the civil war to an end in 2005, the two sides split oil revenues evenly, but Amum announced on Tuesday 15th February that would not be the case any longer.

"The notion of sharing wealth will not be there. There is no continuation, whether 50 percent or anything," Amum said according to Reuters.

He said they will only pay a fee for using the pipelines that transport the oil to Port Sudan.

The fate of the oil-rich Abyei region is yet to be determined, although Amum said the SPLM will hold talks with the north's ruling National Congress Party (NCP) on Friday 18th February to discuss the region.

The Abyei region was supposed to have its own referendum on which State to join in January, but it was postponed when the two sides could not agree on voter eligibility.

Last week, some 200 people were killed in south Sudan's Jonglei state in fighting involving those loyal to rebel leader George Athor. Most of those killed were civilians. The SPLM has accused the north of backing Athor, while Athor blames the clashes on the southern army.

Sources: BBC News, Sudan Tribune

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Sudan: President Omar Al-Bashir accepts secession

Official referendum results have been announced in Sudan and President Omar Al-Bashir has said he accepts the South's secession.

The final result was formally submitted on Monday 7th February to al-Bashir by Southern Sudan Referendum Commission (SSRC) head, Mohamed Ibrahim Khalil , who said that a total of 98.83 per cent of people had voted for independence in the week long referendum which took place last month. Khalil said that no legal challenges had been lodged against the result and that the referendum was conducted in " a fair and transparent " manner.

Khalil presented the results to al-Bashir at Khartoum's presidential palace, with south Sudan leader Salva Kiir present.

Al-Bashir said he accepted the result: " We are with the choice of the southern citizen and sustaining peace in the north and the south ." Al-Bashir immediately issued a Republican Decree accepting the final result, which said, " We declare our acceptance of the southern Sudan people's choice and we pledge to work for resolving the outstanding issues and build constructive relations between north and south Sudan ."

Kiir welcomed al-Bashir's reaction, saying that it would pave the way for other countries to follow suit.

" If the north does not recognize the south no other state will ," Kiir said.

He highlighted that secession is not the end of the road, saying that the borders between north and south would only be ' on paper ' and that there would be freedom of movement of trade and citizens.

" We will not become enemies of each other and will make sure our relationship remains strong ," he said.

The announcement of official results was met with jubilation in the south, and thousands of people gathered at the John Garang mausoleum in Juba to hear the results being announced. Some expressed dissatisfaction that the results were being announced in Khartoum, rather than Juba, but that did not stop the celebrations taking place throughout the soon-to-be separate country.

The result was quickly welcomed by the international community. US President Barack Obama said he was pleased “ to announce the intention of the United States to formally recognize Southern Sudan as a sovereign, independent state in July 2011 ." The US has said they will remove Sudan from the list of State's sponsoring terrorism if they accept the result.

Britain 's Prime Minister David Cameron also welcomed the announcement of the results and the postive reaction of the government in Khartoum. He pledged the UK will continue to support the settlement of the remaining issues.

The UN Secretary-General's Panel of the Referenda in the Sudan, which was established to monitor the process, gave the referendum the seal of approval and welcomed the result, saying it reflected the free will of the people of Southern Sudan.

Some in the north also celebrated the separation of the south. The separatist northern Sudanese Forum of Just Peace (FJP) slaughtered a bull outside the SPLM headquarters in Khartoum, chanting slogans such as " goodbye to unity of tears and blood " or " secession is the true independence ". Many of them wore t-shirts with a new map of North Sudan.

The FJP was founded by Al-Tayeb Mustafa , an uncle of President al-Bashir. He has been accused on inciting hatred and racism through his writing, especially in the journal ' Al-Intibaha' (The Alert), which is the mouthpiece of the forum.

Southern Sudan will become a new country on 9th July 2011, with the end of the six-year interim period, as dictated by the 2005 Comprehensive Peace Agreement , which brought the twenty-year civil war to an end. There are still many outstanding issues between the north and the south that must be resolved by July, including how to deal with oil revenues, ownership of the Abyei region, and completion of the north-south border.

Sources: BBC News, Sudan Tribune

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Juba celebrates first full referendum results

The party has started in south Sudan as the first official announcement of the independence referendum results was made on Sunday 30th January and confirmed what most had suspected: the voters had overwhelmingly endorsed secession.

Preliminary results had already secured the vote for secession, but full results show the scale of the victory; according to the Southern Sudan Referendum Commission (SSRC), 99.57 per cent of voters in the ten states of south Sudan opted to leave the north. In the north, 57.65 per cent of voters chose separation, with 42 per cent voting for unity. There was a relatively low turnout in the north, with only 69,597 of the 116,857 registered voting.

Southern Sudanese voters in Uganda, Kenya, Ethiopia, Egypt, Australia, Canada, the US and the UK mirrored the vote in the south, with 98.55 per cent choosing separation.

These numbers together produce a figure of 98.83 per cent voting for separation, with over 3.8 million votes for separation compared with only 44,888 for unity.

Hundreds of officials and diplomats gathered in Juba at the grave of rebel leader John Garang for the first official announcement of the results.

John Garang was the main Southern leader during the civil war, and he oversaw the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) in 2005, which brought the civil war to an end and set the country on the path towards the referendum just witnessed. He died in a plane clash not long after signing the CPA.

South Sudan leader Salva Kiir presided over the events held at the John Garang mausoleum. Reacting to the preliminary figures announced, Kiir remarked “ the inhumane treatment southerners were subjected to by the northern regime during the long years of war has clearly manifested itself in this overwhelming vote for separation. ”

He extended his gratitude to the SSRC for their tireless work under ' difficult circumstances ' to deliver the referendum and results on schedule. He also thanked the people of southern Sudan for keeping their promise to vote for the independence of their own country.

" No one has forced anybody to vote but today we are witnessing a historic moment that has never happened since the creation of South Sudan, with the results today, I congratulate all of you sons and daughters of this region, " he said.

He emphasised that an independent south would maintain cordial relations with the north, as well as with its neighbours like Uganda and Kenya.

Kiir said attention should now be focused on the Abyei referendum, popular consultations in Southern Kordofan and Blue Nile regions, as well as reolving the conflict in Darfur.

The announcement was met with thousands of southern Sudanese taking to the streets in Juba, the capital of the South, to cheer and dance. The jubilant mood is likely to continue, although Kiir warned people not to remove Sudanese national flags until 9th July, when the flag will be officially lowered in the presence of Sudanese President Omar Al-Bashir . Al-Bashir would then ceremoniously take the flag back to Khartoum.

The new country has already chosen its flag and its anthem, but its official name has not yet been determined.

Sources: BBC News, Sudan Tribune

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President Omar Al-Bashir says Islamic laws to be enforced if South-Sudan splits

Sudan's President Omar al-Bashir has said that if South-Sudan decides on independence in next month's referendum, the country will reinforce its Islamic laws. He said that constitution would also be altered, to make Islam the only religion, Sharia the only law and Arabic the official language within the region.

"If south Sudan secedes, we'll change the constitution. There will be no question of cultural or ethnic diversity. Sharia will be the only source of the constitution, and Arabic the only official language," said al-Bashir on national television.

It is expected that al-Bashir's assertion may cause moral panic among thousands of non-Muslim southerners living in the north of the country. Previous attempts to impose Sharia laws on non-Muslim southerners resulted in civil war, which ended when a peace treaty was penned in 2005.

The treaty stipulated the upcoming referendum and an agreement between the north and the south for an interim constitution that considered both Islamic and Christian social and cultural values. Subsequently, Arabic and English were recognized as the official languages within Sudan and will remain so until July 2011.

And official from Sudan People's Liberation Movement (SPLM) Yasir Arman said that Bashir's comments are likely to cause repression in the north.

“This type of discourse is preparing the ground for a police state. The north, whether alone or with the south, is an extremely diverse place," Arman added.

South Sudan's referendum, expected to take place on January 9th 2011, will determined the future of the largely Christian population in the region. It is expected that the southerners will vote for independence, however, there have been calls form the likes of Libyan leader Colonel Mu'ammar Qadhafi for the country to remain unified.

The head of UN peacekeeping, Alain LeRoy, said that although the situation in Southern Sudan appears to have stabilised the region remains fragile. He also noted that the security situation could become compromised during and after the referendum.

Sources: BBC News, Press TV, Guardian

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The Sudanese Referendum: Secession and the Challenges to Peace

The 2005 Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) ended the war between the Government of Sudan, based in the northern capital of Khartoum, and the rebel forces that had coalesced in southern Sudan around the Sudan People's Liberation Movement (SPLM). The CPA afforded the South the right to an exercise of self-determination and set up the semi-autonomous South Sudan, the entity that, pursuant to the referendum scheduled for 9 January 2011, may emerge as the first new independent state in Africa since Eritrea seceded from Ethiopia in 1993. Despite the supposed intention of the government of national unity—formed in Khartoum, led by Omar al-Bashir, and including elements of the SPLM—to work for Sudanese unity on the basis of federation, in all likelihood a vote for southern independence will be made next year.

However, that this outcome will not be thwarted through the efforts of the North, or through the shortcomings and corruption of southern authorities, cannot be taken for granted. With four months before the referendum, an overseeing commission has only recently been established. Moreover, that the vote might not go ahead as planned remains, seemingly, a possibility.

It seems that the North would be loath to permit any secession above all, perhaps, because 75 per cent of Sudanese oil resources are located in the South. In a move that can only serve to heighten the potential for confrontation, both sides have sent forces to Abyei, a border region between the entities that is rich in oil. But, deposits of natural resources aside, it is far from certain that the regime in the North will allow the referendum to pass undisrupted. Few can readily accept the idea that Sudan faces dismemberment in 2011; few Northern politicians can have approved of the granting of the referendum in the first place, a consequence of the provisions of the CPA, themselves implemented under US and Western pressure.

Yet if the vote does not go ahead as planned then the sense will grow in the South that the only viable course is a unilateral declaration of independence, a path that would very likely heighten the potential for war between the North and the South. Indeed, Daniel Deng, the Anglican archbishop of Sudan, has warned that a civil war—with broader, potentially dire consequences for East Africa—may be provoked in the event that the referendum is delayed or otherwise thwarted. In view of this, it is imperative that the referendum goes ahead on the basis that, given the status quo between the Sudans, the CPA and its provisions are the measures essential for regional peace and stability. To forces in the North, however, it would seem that the CPA, and what stems from it, can only be inequitable. As a result, after the war the North has continued its longstanding practice of using proxy militias to destabilise the SPLM and the South. In more recent times it has done so in order to discredit the referendum by questioning the viability of the southern polity.

Most notably, it has used the Lord's Resistance Army (LRA), which originated in Uganda, and it has been through the LRA's activities, so the UN estimates, that 25,000 people have been forced from their homes in the South in 2010 alone. Southern elements have begun to arm their own vigilante groups, including the Arrow Boys, in order to fend off LRA's increasing attacks. The LRA exercises considerable control and power in the neighbouring states of Central African Republic and Democratic Republic of Congo and this, amongst other things, highlights the importance of Sudan's neighbouring states and, more broadly, sub-regional geopolitics within these processes.

But regional voices are critical when it comes to the issue of southern secession. The Libyan leader, Mu'ammar Qadhafi , has warned (10th October) that a vote for southern independence would set a dangerous precedent for territorial revision in Africa, a continent in which, of course, many ethnic and linguistic groups remain frustrated in their aspirations to of independent statehood. Several reasons could be employed to explain Qadhafi's support of the North, none perhaps more obvious than the ties of ethnic kinship. Certainly, his recent remarks contrast with those he made in March 2010 in which he advocated the dismemberment of Nigeria, a state to which Libya is no near neighbour. Nonetheless, and Qadhafi's inconsistency set aside, it is hard to imagine that the independence of South Sudan could not bolster—if not outright engender—a precedent. This could only prompt considerable unease among AU members who, since decolonisation, have represented the most vocal proponents of states' rights—to territorial integrity and of non-intervention—at the UN General Assembly, the resolutions of which may be regarded as authentic interpretations of the evolutions of the international law doctrine.

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