Mali: peace process loses momentum

It is clear from the array of reports and commentaries over the last month that the Mali peace process has lost momentum, if it ever had any.

The Ouagadougou Agreement of 18 June 2013 stipulated that an ‘inclusive dialogue’ should begin 60 days after the naming of a new government. That has not happened. Since then, the Mouvement National pour la Libération de l’Azawad (MNLA) and the government have accused each other of reneging on agreements on security arrangements in Kidal.

There are two fundamental reasons.

First, the Bamako government has rarely shown much interest in its extreme northeast (Kidal), let alone most of its north (Azawad). It has never had more than a fleeting political or economic inclination to get to grips with the extremely taxing and deep-rooted problems of the region, and looks even less likely to do so today than it did this time last year.

Second, much blame must be placed on that vast, enigmatic entity, the ‘international community.’ It embraces the United Nations (and all its many agencies), the African Union (AU), the Economic Community of West African States, the European Union, a host of NGOs, the World Bank, the International Monetary Fund, and many other largely unaccountable entities, including NATO – not to mention the plethora of so-called experts, many of whom have little more than a passing acquaintance with the region or its people.

A month or so ago, most analysts recognised that the northern region of Kidal remained an MNLA stronghold. Also in the area are the French army, the UN Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission in Mali, and troops of the Mali army. But they are not enough to secure the vast area. 

Many politicians and commentators in Bamako have been arguing that the French army should step aside and let a strengthened Mali army step in. But in 2013, the MNLA warned one reporter that ‘to plant a Malian flag in Kidal is an act of war.’

That remains pretty much the case today, except for one thing. The MNLA itself is now fragmenting into what appear to be at least three parties. While this may be a temporary state of affairs, it makes any sort of overall deal almost impossible in the near future.

For more news and expert analysis about the Sahara region, please see Sahara Focus.

© 2014 Menas Associates

Algerians flee Libya

According to Algerian government sources, nearly 8,000 Algerian were living in Libya. Since 20th February, at least 4,000 Algerians, probably more, have returned home, the vast majority on Air Algérie flights. Some 1,400 people were reported as having crossed back into Algeria at the Debdeb border crossing, just south of Tunisia.

This number could, in fact, be much higher and include nationalities other than just Algerians. The Debdeb area has been turned into something of a temporary crisis zone, with assistance being provided by the Algerian army, gendarmerie, Civil Protection Force, Algerian Red Crescent, and the medical service of Sonatrach.

The latest figure, released by the UN Office for the Co-ordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) on 11th March, was that 5,400 people had fled from Libya into Algeria. This figure includes both Algerians and non-Algerians. The United Nations puts the total number of people who have fled since mid-February as over 250,000.

On 26th February, President Abdelaziz Bouteflika ordered the despatch from Algiers of a large ferry, the Tassili II, to collect Algerians from Tripoli and Benghazi. The ship took with it a delegation from the Foreign Ministry, a medical team, police officers, and journalists. It returned to Algiers carrying 1,300 people including American, Moroccan, and Tunisian nationals as well as Algerians.

Sonatrach announced that it had repatriated all its employees working in Libya. It said that it had 80 employees working with SIPEX, whose Libyan operations cover two exploration blocks in the Ghadames basin, close to the Algerian border. Although Sonatrach said that there had been no damage to any of its facilities, there have been reports that its bases in Libya have been subjected to substantial looting.

For more news and expert analysis about the Sahara region, please see Sahara Focus.

© 2011 Menas Associates

Congo and Areva in uranium exploration talks

Democratic Republic of Congo and France's Areva are in talks over possible uranium exploration at a now-closed site that once produced material for the Hiroshima bomb.

Mines Minister Martin Kabwelulu and Areva's Africa Chairman Zephirin Diabre met this week, both parties confirmed, and additional discussions were likely into next year.

"We are looking to have all the geological data available before a meeting in Paris," Kabwelulu told Reuters by text message on Thursday, adding that the next meeting was likely to take place in March 2011.

"All I can confirm is that they did indeed meet," a spokesperson for Areva told Reuters by email.

Congo's largest uranium mine, Shinkolobwe, provided the uranium that went into the atomic bomb deployed by the United States on Japan in 1945 during the Second World War.

The site in the south of the vast and minerals-rich central African country was officially closed in 2004, but the United Nations has since cautioned that radioactive material from Congo is frequently smuggled out.

The site is in poor condition, likely suffering from leaks that would be costly to contain, and a lack of fencing is has opened it up to smuggling -- raising fears among Western diplomats that some of the uranium is reaching Iran.

"Uranium is the one resource that's always been at the back of everyone's mind -- it explains U.S. interest in a country that was otherwise not very interesting," said Christopher Melville, Africa specialist with London-based risk consultancy, Menas Associates.

Source: Reuters

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