Algeria: PM accused of arrogance and misuse of power

The commission in charge of supervising the elections (CNSEL) has publicly criticised Ahmed Ouyahia of misusing his position as prime minister in his electoral campaign as head of the RND. In what the commission regards as a clear-cut conflict of interest, it says that Ouyahia is deploying his position and access to state power in electioneering, giving himself an unfair advantage over competitors.

At a press conference, Mohammed Sidikki , the president of the CNSEL, accused the prime minister of “serious infractions”. He gave the example of the welcome given to Ouyahia by the wali of El Oued, who mobilised his administration and put local services – including transport – at the disposal of the campaigning politician; advantages not enjoyed by his electoral rivals. “The law is clear in this instance. The wali is the representative of the state, and as such, he cannot be used as a political propaganda tool by anyone,” said Sidikki. Sidikki also hit out at Ouyahia's arrogance, criticising his campaign speeches in which he declared that “all the achievements” in Algeria were thanks to him. “He should be the first to know that everything that has been achieved in this country is thanks to the hydrocarbons wealth,” noted Sidikki, adding that if Ouyahia did not stop this kind of campaigning, the legal authorities would intervene to force him.

Sidikki's interventions add a welcome frankness to the electoral campaign, and seem to underline further how much the prime minister is reviled among certain Algerians. Online comments on this story include: “Mr Ouyahia does not think anything is beyond dictatorship and the abuse of power, he has never respected the people” and the cynical observation that “you have not understood that Ouyahia is the republic”.

For more news and expert analysis about Algeria, please see Algeria Focus and Algeria Politics & Security.

© 2012 Menas Associates

Algeria: Moroccan border open 'sooner or later'

Prime Minister Ahmed Ouyahia has confirmed that the border with Morocco is to open in due course, but warned against “declarations which would destroy the attempts at rapprochement”, an allusion to suggestions in the press that Algeria and Morocco do not agree on the precise delineation of the frontier.

Describing progress in negotiations between Algerian and Moroccan counterparts as “excellent”, Ouyahia denied that Algeria was making the disputed status of Western Sahara a condition of re-opening the border. The conflict “is in the hands of the UN, but it remains a matter of principle for Algeria”, he told El Khabar in an interview. “Algeria is not in total agreement with what our Moroccan brothers proposed but, thanks be to God, our brothers think that the matter needs to be handed to the UN, and we agree with them on that.”

His comments make clear Algeria's intention to put the Western Sahara conflict to one side to establish better ties with Morocco. As the region changes, Algeria's interests are shifting too, and the need to avoid being isolated in a Maghreb where the old order has been swept aside is coming to the fore. The long-standing ideological attachment to the right to self-determination for the Sahrawi people and support for their independence movement, the Polisario Front, is not over, but it is set to one side for now.

For more news and expert analysis about Algeria, please see Algeria Focus and Algeria Politics & Security.

© 2012 Menas Associates

Algeria: Ahmed Ouyahia will not stand down as Prime Minister

The congress of Prime Minister Ahmed Ouyahia's RND party was being held on Friday 6th th January as we went to press last week. It also came a few days after opposition party spokesmen had called on President Abdelaziz Bouteflika to appoint a new Prime Minister and Cabinet before the forthcoming parliamentary elections on the grounds that the present incumbents could not guarantee a fair election.

Ouyahia gave a typically belligerent response. He announced on Saturday 7 th that he would not resign in the face of opposition parties' demands for a technocratic government to guide the country through the May elections. “I will remain in my post and will not resign,” he told reporters. “The decision to disband the government belongs to the person who nominated it,” he added, referring to the president.

The most politically relevant moment of the Congress was Ouhayia's questioning of Bouteflika's presidency. Rumours, put out by the president's camp, that Bouteflika is considering a fourth presidential term after the next presidential elections, scheduled for 2014, have been circulating for the last few weeks. In his address to the RND Congress, Ouyahia questioned whether Bouteflika should seek a fourth term. Ouyahia asked the Congress whether another term for the ailing 75 year-old would serve Algeria's interests.

The statement was interpreted by RND members and reporters that Ouyahia was laying down his marker for the 2014 presidential election. Ouyahia, 61, told reporters, however, that it was too early for him to address whether he would run in the 2014 presidential election.

In 2008, the constitution was changed to scrap the two-term limit of presidential terms, thus allowing Bouteflika to run for a third term. Ouyahia defended his support for that change, saying that the country needed Bouteflika at a time when Algeria was recovering from its 1990s insurgency.

For more news and expert analysis about Algeria, please see Algeria Focus and Algeria Politics & Security.

© 2012 Menas Associates

Algeria: Soltani's MSP to leave presidential alliance

Bouguera Soltani, leader of the MSP (Islamist Movement for Society of Peace), or Hamas in Arabic, is hoping to take advantage of the success of other Islamist parties in other North African countries that have held elections this last year. He has therefore withdrawn his party from the ruling coalition or 'presidential alliance', as it is known, that comprises the FLN, the RND of Prime Minister Ahmed Ouyahia, and his own MSP. The final decision was made by the MSP's shoura (advisory council) at its meeting at the end of December.

Soltani says that he wants to press for constitutional reform to limit the powers of the president. He is on record as saying that he does not believe that Bouteflika is serious about reform and has warned that voters would snub the ballot box in large numbers if political reform is not implemented.

He said: “The regime is not serious when it talks about political reforms. It continues to rule the country as it has always done... People continue to believe that the ballot is not the way for change….. Without serious reforms, the social front will remain unstable.”

Most commentators believe that Soltani's real reason for leaving the coalition, at least for the moment, as being to avoid losing votes in the upcoming elections, or, as he would no doubt word it, to attract more of the country's Islamist voters. His problem is that his party's membership of the unpopular ruling coalition, along with his own association with corruption scandals, could result in a collapse in the MSP vote as the Islamists support alternative parties.

As things stand at the moment, the MSP's departure from the ruling coalition would not strip the government of its majority. Currently, however, the party has a big following among conservative Algerians. Whether they will continue to support the party in the spring election is questionable. Soltani therefore sees his best chance of retaining support as being by trying to distance himself from the coalition. Few Algerians are likely to fall for it and most opinion is that the MSP vote is likely to collapse.

The MSP was founded in 1990 by Mahfoud Nahnah and Algerian members of the Muslim Brotherhood. Nahnah, who died in 2003, changed the party's name from Hamas. The party condemned the 1992 coup that led to the annulment of the 1992 elections, but did join the government coalition in 2004. The MSP currently has four ministers in minor posts.

The FLN General-Secretary, Abdelaziz Belkhadem, is on record as saying that there will be no Islamist tidal wave in the elections and that altogether the Islamists will not win more than 35 per cent of the vote.

For more news and expert analysis about Algeria, please see Algeria Focus and Algeria Politics & Security.

© 2012 Menas Associates

Algeria: More infighting among the regime

Our sources in Algeria have confirmed that infighting among clans has got noticeably worse in the last week or so. We can, of course, speculate that this has something to do with the decline in the president's health. Our sources explained, however, that it is because the clans cannot agree on how to make the urgently needed political changes while at the same time ensuring they retain power.

We are also hearing reports that more and more young officers are criticising both of the major clans; by which we understand that to mean the presidency and the DRS. We would certainly not go so far as to suggest that this indicates the making of a military coup. Nevertheless, the longer the situation drags on without any meaningful decisions coming out of the regime, the greater the build-up of frustration across what is a highly professional, educated and potentially powerful 'middle-rank' officer class.

Algeria has more than enough precedents for army officers to effect a coup d'état, and there are many Algerians who see such a coup as the most straightforward way of ridding the country of a thoroughly decrepit, illegitimate and corrupt regime before it does the country more lasting damage.

In neighbouring Niger, it took a handful of army officers, one in particular, precisely 12 months to affect a military coup, oust President Mamadou Tandja, hold a referendum on a new constitution and return the country to a full-blown, democratically elected civilian government. This is a remarkable achievement by African standards; and one that could easily be emulated in Algeria.

In fact, even within the administration, more and more people are openly questioning whether the current situation is tenable. Prime Minister Ahmed Ouyahia is “definitely showing all the signs of living on another planet”, to quote one opposition figure, and is creating more trouble for the regime every time he speaks, with even his political friends being openly critical of his interventions.

For more news and expert analysis about Algeria, please see Algeria Focus and Algeria Politics & Security.

© 2011 Menas Associates

Former leader of Algeria's ruling party urges reform

Former leader of Algeria's ruling party Abdelhamid Mehri has urged President Abdulaziz Bouteflika to respond to the unrest sweeping the country by reshuffling his government. He said Algeria needed to undergo a radical change to coincide with the country's 50 years of independence from France.

In a letter to Bouteflika, Mehri said the government was no longer capable of addressing the nation's challenges. He noted that the “voices calling for a peaceful change of this system are many,” adding “this change cannot be postponed any longer".

Former leader of the National Liberation Front (FLN) Mehri played a key role in Algeria's struggle for independence. He was also instrumental in negotiating the Evian Treaty, ending 130 years of French colonial rule.

Algeria is one of several North African countries affected by large-scale demonstration and anti-government rallies. The demonstrators have pledged to continue with the protests until the government takes heed. There has been a heavy police presence at the rallies, and reports of dozens of arrests.

In a bid to appease the public, Algeria's Prime Minister Ahmed Ouyahia has said the government will lift a 19 year state of emergency by the end of the month.

Sources: BBC News, Xinhua, Reuters, AFP

For more news and expert analysis about Algeria, please see Algeria Focus and Algeria Politics & Security.

Algerian regime's response to riots takes shape

Algerian regime's response to the January 5-9th revolt takes shape. As the uprising of Arab people against their despotic regimes spreads from Tunisia to Egypt, with demonstrations in Yemen, Jordan and Libya and concerns that Morocco may follow suit, so the response of the Algerian regime to its own nationwide revolt is beginning to unfold.

The Algerian opposition movement Rachad has likened its objective of overthrowing the regime by peaceful means to breaking through four concentric rings of defence. The first ring collapsed almost immediately as the government made concessions on food prices – the 'final straw' that galvanised the nationwide rioting.

The second ring looks like collapsing in the next few days. This will involve the removal of Prime Minister Ahmed Ouyahia, with the possible lifting of the State of Emergency that has now been in force for 19 years. It may also be accompanied by the freeing of some or all of the detained rioters, and giving greater freedom to the media in general.

The replacement of Ouyahia, barring any sudden change of circumstance within the regime, looks likely to occur imminently, with our sources suggesting possibly this weekend. Beyond that, none of the other concessions are assured.

For more news and expert analysis about Algeria, please see Algeria Focus and Algeria Politics & Security.

© 2010 Menas Associates

It is unclear what the Algerian regime will do

In view of the riots in Algeria, it is widely believed that the EU, some of its member states, and the US will ask the MENA states to 'make changes'. Indeed, it is widely believed that the visit of President Barack Obama's counter-terrorism advisor, John Brennan, to Algiers on 17th January was not really to discuss the US position on ransom payments to al-Qa'ida, as stated in the media, but to give a message to the Algerian regime “that it must do something”.

The US and EU are both frightened by the prospect of Islamists coming to power in any of the North African States. They, therefore, want sufficient change to prevent an outcome reminiscent of the FIS' victory of in 1991-1992.

It remains unclear what the Algerian regime might do. Having discussed the situation with both the opposition Rachad and our other sources in Algeria, we can proffer the following:

The regime has received a huge warning. It is weakened, frightened and unable to deliver the changes that are required. There are also signs that the Département du Renseignement et de la Sécurité (DRS) itself is uncertain, and probably divided on what actions to take.

The most likely immediate action is that both President Abdelaziz Bouteflika and Prime Minister Ahmed Ouyahia will be replaced; in Bouteflika's case on health grounds, and in Ouyahia's on purely 'political reshuffling'. The names of both Mouloud Hamrouche, whom we reported as being approached by the DRS two weeks ago and Ahmed Benbitour are in the frame, probably for President and Prime Minister, respectively. We do not know whether they will accept or whether others are also being considered.


For more news and expert analysis about Algeria, please see Algeria Focus and Algeria Politics & Security.


© 2010 Menas Associates