Guinea poll organisers propose date

Guinea's electoral commission has proposed holding the delayed presidential run-off election, meant to transfer power to civilians from soldiers, on October 31 but one candidate said on Tuesday that that was too soon.

The poll, the first free vote in the mineral-producing former French colony after decades of authoritarian rule, has been postponed repeatedly since September because of a lack of preparation and street clashes among rival political camps.

Electoral commission chief General Siaka Sangare told reporters he had proposed the date during a meeting with acting President and junta leader General Sekouba Konate on Monday. Konate is expected to ratify it.

But Cellou Dallein Diallo, one of the two candidates, said October 31 was too soon after a wave of violence between supporters of the rival political camps.

Diallo, a former prime minister, said 18 busloads of his supporters had recently been evacuated from Haute Guinea, a region loyal to his rival Alpha Conde, after they had been harassed.

“The biggest problem is to resolve the issue of displacement of this group,” Diallo said. “I think October 31 is too soon.”

Conde said he hoped the date would hold. Independent analysts said the decision to hold the vote as early as this weekend appeared to be a bid to keep ethnic tensions at bay, even though preparations might not be complete.

“I think that while there may still be issues over whether the election is free and fair and according to best practice, there are clearly dangers in allowing this impasse to continue,” said Chris Melville, senior associate at Menas Associates.

“What it means to Guinea in the medium term in terms of legitimacy of the process is another question,” he said.

Guinea, the world's biggest supplier of aluminum ore bauxite which has drawn billions of dollars in planned iron ore mining investment this year, has been run by a military junta since a coup in December 2008.

Konate has since won international plaudits for agreeing to hand power back to civilians, and has expressed frustration over a series of delays to the run-off after the first round vote passed relatively smoothly.

At least two people have been killed and dozens injured in political and ethnic clashes in recent weeks. Human rights groups said on Tuesday that security forces were not using enough restraint.

Sangare was chosen to lead the electoral body last week after Diallo accused the previous election chief of bias in a row that derailed the most recent October 24 poll date. Both Diallo and Conde have said they support Sangare's leadership of the electoral body.

Source: Reuters

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Stakes rise with Guinea election gamble

A move by Guinean authorities to hold a delayed presidential run-off on Sunday marks an attempt to contain rising ethnic tensions in the West African country but could store up trouble for later.

The landmark vote, meant to end nearly two years of military rule, has been repeatedly postponed since the first round in June amid outbursts of violence between rival political camps and a lack of adequate preparation.

The newly-appointed electoral commission chief surprised observers on Tuesday by proposing to hold the vote on Oct. 31 -- a move widely seen as a bid to stifle rising conflict and the potential for a new military coup.

"There are clearly dangers in allowing this impasse to continue," said Chris Melville, senior associate at Menas Associates, a London-based consultancy watching Guinea and its large bauxite and iron ore mining sector.

But the attempt to rush the vote could lead to a chaotic election aftermath in a country that has drawn billions of dollars in investment from firms like Rio Tinto and Vale.

Junta leader General Sekouba Konate has yet to ratify the date and one candidate, ex-premier Cellou Dallein Diallo, said the date was premature -- raising worries that his supporters would vigorously contest the outcome if he lost.

TRADE-OFF

Diallo took 43.69 percent in June's first round, relying on support from his ethnic Peul, who make up about 40 percent of the country. Veteran opposition leader Alpha Conde, one of the Malinke who make up about 35 percent of the country and have tended to enjoy political power since independence, took 18.25 percent of the first round.

But Diallo's lead may not be as strong as it appears.

Diallo said on Tuesday that recent ethnic clashes in regions that favour Conde had displaced large numbers of his supporters and no measures had yet been taken to ensure they could vote.

Conde has burnished his support with alliances with defeated first-round candidates Papa Koly Kourouma and Jean-Marc Telliano -- both of whom did well in the large Guinea Forestiere region -- and has strong support in Malinke stronghold Haute Guinea.

After complaints in the first round that some voters had to travel 20 miles (30 km) to vote, election officials have been adding new voting stations in those regions -- in theory making for a stronger turnout for Conde.

"The first round showed Diallo as the clear front-runner. But it will be interesting to see if the machinations of the political elite in between will affect those results," said Tara O'Connor of Africa Risk Consulting.

Analysts said the Peul would be in no mood to accept defeat this time around given their view that other ethnicities have ganged up to exclude them from power since independence from France in 1958.

But there has been pressure from Paris, the United Nations and neighbouring states on Guinea not to delay the election any further. Assuming Konate accepts the Oct. 31 date, the trade-off will be in favour of reducing the risk of violence before the vote in the hope of being able to contain it later.

"The damage to the electoral system has already been done," said O'Connor of an electoral process that was billed as being Guinea's first democratic vote since 1958.

"It is just better that they are getting on with it."

Source: Reuters

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Guinea poll "difficult" to hold Oct 24 -commission

Guinea's election commission chief said on Thursday it would be hard to stage a presidential run-off on Sunday as planned, citing a "deplorable" lack of preparation that would lead to a disputed outcome.

The comments were the clearest sign yet of a likely further delay in the transition from junta to civilian rule in the world's top exporter of the aluminium ore bauxite after a dispute over allegations of bias within the election commission.

"I must stress to you that the date of Oct. 24 will be difficult to stick to," new commission chief Siaka Toumany Sangare said after meetings with key political players.

"I would not want to rush and send voters to the ballot boxes in such deplorable conditions that do not respect international standards and which will mean that the results will be disputed afterwards," said Sangare, who was named two days ago after his predecessor was accused of partiality.

The presidential run-off is seen drawing a line under decades of authoritarian leadership that left the West African country in poverty despite huge mineral resources.

Sangare stopped short of confirming a postponement but said he would carry out an "objective and inclusive re-evaluation" on whether the poll could go ahead as planned on Sunday. Further talks -- and a likely final decision -- are due on Friday.

Earlier, French Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner, who has played a major role in efforts to guide Guinea towards civilian rule, suggested a delay of one week.

The run-off is due to pit former prime minister Cellou Dallein Diallo against veteran opposition leader Alpha Conde, strongly associated with the large Peul and Malinke ethnic groups respectively.

MINER UNCERTAINTY

A June 27 first round passed off relatively smoothly but was marred by accusations of fraud and other irregularities which prompted street battles between rival factions in which one person died and several dozen were injured.

It also sparked a row over the leadership of the national election commission which was only allayed on Tuesday with the naming of Sangare, a Malian, as the new president of the body.

The ensuing delay in preparations has meant that many of the electoral lists dictating voter eligibility in the various constituencies were not complete, one member of the cross-party body set up to oversee the transition told Reuters.

Diallo came out on top in the first round with 43.69 percent of the vote compared to Conde's 18.25 percent.

Analysts say whoever wins is likely to face calls to shake up existing contracts governing the presence of international firms such as Rio Tinto and RUSAL in the mining sector.

"Any new government will be vulnerable to such calls in the aftermath of a highly contested election. This could bring it into further conflict with mining companies," said Christopher Melville, senior associate at UK-based Menas Associates.

Source: Reuters

For more news about Nigeria, please visit the Menas Associates Newsroom.